Aidymac Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Tuesday 22 October 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Accrington Stanley v Bristol Rovers (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]19/10[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9/4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]13/10[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.73 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Burton Albion v Torquay United (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5/6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]12/5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.96 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Bury v Mansfield Town (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7/5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9/4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7/4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.80 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Cheltenham Town v Morecambe (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5/4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9/4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.55 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Chesterfield v York City (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8/13[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]13/5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.73 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Fleetwood Town v Scunthorpe United (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5/6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]12/5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.96 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Hartlepool United v AFC Wimbledon (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]11/10[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9/4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]23/10[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.69 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Oxford United v Exeter City (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]17/20[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]12/5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]14/5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.54 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Plymouth Argyle v Newport County (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5/4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9/4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.55 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Portsmouth v Wycombe Wanderers (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10/11[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]12/5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]11/4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.46 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Rochdale v Northampton Town (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10/11[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]12/5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]11/4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.46 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Southend United v Dagenham & Redbridge (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10/11[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]12/5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]11/4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.46 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Re: League 2 > Tuesday October 22nd Similar to League One, I've had a look down Tuesday's fixtures and the latest shots on target stats, and I think these three offer good value. The team I suggest has shots stats that compare well with their opponents and the odds are too long I believe. I've chosen the best market, whether straight win, DNB or AH0. Once again, ignoring form, but I but concentrating on shots stats. Burton v Torquay Torquay 4.0 Ladbrokes Bury v Mansfield Bury 2.65 Betway Plymouth v Newport Plymouth 2.38 Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cornelinho Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Re: League 2 > Tuesday October 22nd hi! Where did you get these stats based on shots, etc! Is there a link or a name to search on google for? Thanks MP Louis in advance! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Re: League 2 > Tuesday October 22nd hi! Where did you get these stats based on shots' date=' etc! Is there a link or a name to search on google for? Thanks MP Louis in advance![/quote'] The stats are on the match reports on the BBC football website. Also available from football-data website (some people say these are more accurate). It does take a fair amount of time to compile everything - although I think it might be possible to get software written to do the work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Re: League 2 > Tuesday October 22nd The stats are on the match reports on the BBC football website. Also available from football-data website (some people say these are more accurate). It does take a fair amount of time to compile everything - although I think it might be possible to get software written to do the work. I guess my question would be, what's the theory? Shots on goal are a good stat (better than goals), but they reflect previous matchups...they don't tell you how the team would match up today. I guess if it's a losing team it helps determine whether they've played to bad luck or good keeping....or they tend to strike the ball right at the keeper... I've wondered whether possession is a good thing to look at...I know it doesn't always equate to goals or wins, but it does tell you whether a team can dominate the run of play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Re: League 2 > Tuesday October 22nd I guess my question would be' date=' what's the theory? Shots on goal are a good stat (better than goals), but [b']they reflect previous matchups...they don't tell you how the team would match up today. I guess if it's a losing team it helps determine whether they've played to bad luck or good keeping....or they tend to strike the ball right at the keeper... That's always the big question isn't it? ... what will the next result be, looking forward. In general, I have found shots on goal to be very useful in predicting value though, probably more useful than possession too I think. I look at the shots on goal both for AND against (it's a problem if a team is making an average 5 shots on target themselves but conceding 10 shots on target). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 I guess my question would be, what's the theory? Shots on goal are a good stat (better than goals), but they reflect previous matchups...they don't tell you how the team would match up today. I guess if it's a losing team it helps determine whether they've played to bad luck or good keeping....or they tend to strike the ball right at the keeper... I've wondered whether possession is a good thing to look at...I know it doesn't always equate to goals or wins, but it does tell you whether a team can dominate the run of play. I think its like a lot of things, depends on who's playing who, and the circumstances surrounding each game. A bottom placed side would not normally naturally notch up too many shots on goal if they're playing a top side etc. Shots on goal are a good indicator though and I've previously argued for their use in reasoning, against punters that look on them unfavorably because you can't tell how good a shot on goal each one was.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Re: League 2 > Tuesday October 22nd That's always the big question isn't it? ... what will the next result be' date=' looking forward. In general, I have found shots on goal to be very useful in predicting value though, probably more useful than possession too I think. I look at the shots on goal both for AND against (it's a problem if a team is making an average 5 shots on target themselves but conceding 10 shots on target).[/quote'] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Re: League 2 > Tuesday October 22nd I wonder what fouls typically show...more fouls means the team is bossing the game (dominant in other areas) or simply being thugs to prevent the favorite from playing its game? Is there any association between leading in fouls and winning games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jedini Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Re: League 2 > Tuesday October 22nd I cross Stevenage DNB off my slip to take Chesterfield (while having Chelsea, Atletico Madrid and Celtic on the same slip). Smh... Livid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Re: League 2 > Tuesday October 22nd It's a funny thing, though...I've noticed how many times upsets occur where the favorite takes 18 shots and 10 SOG and the underdog has two shots all game. It's probably only half the time that an underdog dominates in the stats. Example: Rotherham 0-0 Tranmere at the half here, and Rotherham are 11-5 to Tranmere's 1-0. And Port Vale are up 2-0 at HT, the difference being they've shot straighter...8-5 to Crawley's 8-1. I'd like to see a stat that can intimate that there's some man-to-man matchup on the field that is utterly exploitable by the dog. I know a lot of you guys know some of these, but I sure don't. I only do some basic shots on target analysis. I think there's a lot more to it - accuracy of shots, shot to goal ratio perhaps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Re: League 2 > Tuesday October 22nd Similar to League One, I've had a look down Tuesday's fixtures and the latest shots on target stats, and I think these three offer good value. The team I suggest has shots stats that compare well with their opponents and the odds are too long I believe. I've chosen the best market, whether straight win, DNB or AH0. Once again, ignoring form, but I but concentrating on shots stats. Burton v Torquay Torquay 4.0 Ladbrokes Bury v Mansfield Bury 2.65 Betway Plymouth v Newport Plymouth 2.38 Ladbrokes One loser (Torquay) and two voids from these games 2 points return from 3 points @ 1 point level stake per bet Staked = 3 points Return = 2 points Profit = - 1 points (- 33%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 I wonder what fouls typically show...more fouls means the team is bossing the game (dominant in other areas) or simply being thugs to prevent the favorite from playing its game? Is there any association between leading in fouls and winning games? I've never looked at fouls tbh but I'd be surprised if they demonstrated a trend. Fouls can often be representitive of the flow of the game and the number can be influenced by other in game scenarios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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