Aykay1 Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Post your thoughts for the Wednesday racing here :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 13, 2005 Author Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday Queen Mother Champion Chase - Ignore older than 10 or younger than 7 years old - 39 of the last 45 runnings have gone to the first 3 in the market. - Its been 24 years since the winner failed to record a placing on its previous run. - 16 of the last 20 winners all won or placed at the previous festival. Two of the remainder had won good chases at Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday AK, I really think this is Azertyuiop's race. The stats back it up & course form is superb 3 races - 3 wins 100% (2 at the festival also). Proved itself over 2m - 2m4f which suits Cheltenham with horses have to come up that hill. If Nicholls has him spot on, looks a great bet. I want 2/1 if I can get it & will be searching high & low, although 15/8 is near enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 13, 2005 Author Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday R&SA CHASE Horses that have finished 1st or 2nd last time out are: Jazz D'Estruval King Harald L'Ami Light du Mullottes Trabolgan The only 6 year old to win this race in recent times in Florida pearl, a top class horse. L'Ami is still somewhat unproven at this level and also on the good ground he is likely to encounter. Im happy to cross him off with Light du Mullottes. Of the remaining 3, King Harald hasnt shown enough to suggest he s a future Festival winner. Jazz D'estruval is an out and out mudlark and would be a serios contender if getting his favoured surface. However, this looks unlikely and wouldnt be a confident bet. This leaves Trabolgan, who with the withdrawal of Ollie Magern has an excellent chance to win this and reverse form with Jazz D'Estruval on better ground. TRABOLGAN @ 7/2 Sporting Odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday THE R&SA NOVICE HURDLE - 5 and 6 year olds have provided the winner of 27 out of the last 30 runnings. - Since 1970, the winner has been in the first two on its previous run. 1 4F-001 Akhtari (IRE) 5 11 7 D Hughes 29 2 111211 Ambobo (USA) 5 11 7 A Chaille-Chaille 46 3 4111 Bagan (FR) 6 11 7 C Mann N Fehily11 4 201361 Black Apalachi (IRE) 6 11 7 P Rothwell 24 5 3-41112 Brewster (IRE) 8 11 7 Ian Williams 46 6 3-12121 Darkness 6 11 7 C Egerton 41 8 1-011 Forager 6 11 7 M Ryan S Durack18 9 111 Gold Medallist 5 11 7 P Hobbs R Johnson20 10 311 Mephisto (IRE) 6 11 7 J Howard Johnson 11 11 P21151 My Way de Solzen (FR) 5 11 7 A King 12 121 No Refuge (IRE) 5 11 7 J Howard Johnson G Lee60 13 12 Olaso (GER) 6 11 7 Jonjo O'Neill 10 16 1-2131 Racing Demon (IRE) 5 11 7 Miss H Knight J Culloty72 19 11 Reveillez 6 11 7 J Fanshawe 58 22 4-11311 Royal Paradise (FR) 5 11 7 Thomas Foley M A Fitzgerald38 23 111-322 Secret Ploy 5 11 7 H Morrison 60 26 32412 Stan (NZ) 6 11 7 R Guest 74 27 121 The Market Man (NZ) 5 11 7 N Henderson 47 33 00111 Inch Pride (IRE) 6 11 0 M Pipe 41 35 11 Queen Astrid (IRE) 5 11 0 D Weld 13 by applying the usual winner or 2nd stat LTO & removing anything other than 5/6yo, we are left with the above, other notable recent trends are Irish based horses (5 out of last 7) & 1st 4 in the betting (13 out of last 15 novice hurdle wins at festival). Royal paradise, Queen Astrid, Akhtari, Black Apalachi, are all trained in Ireland. I would be interested in one of these at the moment. All of which have done their winning on soft ground, so it will be interesting how they handle faster ground unless the rain does come in time. Gold Medallist & Mephisto have great form here at home & would be thereabouts in a finish. Difficult to call at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday THE CORAL CUP - Avoid 5 year olds - no weight allowance. 50 have tried and failed since 1993. only 1 of these was placed. - Need to carry less than 11 stone. - Irish are very strong in this race. - 8 of the last 11 winners had no more than 3 prior runs and 2 of the other 3 had 4 runs - had their marks protected. - Hold up horses are favoured - ignore front runners. 10 12/3-614 Jack Dawson (IRE) 8 11 2 John Berry J Culloty242 11 13212-2 Fountain Hill (IRE) 6 11 2 P Nicholls 39 12 323-311 Supreme Serenade (IRE) 6 11 2 P Hobbs P Flynn39 13 6010-20 Dancing Bay 8 11 1 N Henderson 242 16 P1-1411 Ebinzayd (IRE) 9 11 0 L Lungo G Berridge28 17 401-540 Zibeline (IRE) 8 11 0 B Ellison N Fehily32 20 PU-0655 Royaleety (FR) 6 10 10 Ian Williams D R Dennis25 21 21-1626 Idole First (IRE) 6 10 10 Miss Venetia Williams A O'Keeffe32 26 2165-1 Distant Prospect (IRE) 8 10 8 A Balding A P McCoy109 30 111/3-05 Covent Garden 7 10 7 J Howard Johnson A Dobbin39 31 53-0313 Fairwood Present (IRE) 7 10 7 P Rothwell 10 33 13-F2F1 Dantes Reef (IRE) 9 10 5 A Martin 34 35 12-2230 Red Ruffles (IRE) 6 10 5 Noel T Chance 96 37 1-100 Team Tassel (IRE) 7 10 5 M Pipe 39 39 05-4361 Anatar (IRE) 7 10 4 M Pipe 26 taking the above stats into account, we are left with the above list to narrow down. If we start hitting that stat of horses 1st or 2nd LTO we are left with 11 13212-2 Fountain Hill 12 323-311 Supreme Serenade 16 P1-1411 Ebinzayd 26 2165-1 Distant Prospect 33 13-F2F1 Dantes Reef 39 05-4361 Anatar if we go with the stat that you only need 3 or less previous runs that season: 11 13212-2 Fountain Hill 12 323-311 Supreme Serenade 26 2165-1 Distant Prospect if we go with the stat of 11st or less, it leaves just one selection: Distant Prospect - best price 7/1 available most bookies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 14, 2005 Author Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday Bowles, the Novices Hurdle is an interesting one as when i applied our trends with some additional ones from EBA, i was left with one horse - a 66/1 outsider who earlier in the season had his trainer write him off as not being good enough to win at Cheltenham! :lol 6 of the last 7 winners hadnt been outside the first 2 in any of their runs that season: Darkness No Refuge Olaso Pole Star Regents Walk Reveillez The Market Man Inch Pride Queen Astrid 10 of the last 11 winners have been 5 or 6 years old Darkness No Refuge Olaso Reveillez The Market Man Inch Pride Queen Astrid 9 of the lat 11 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles Darkness Queen Astrid 9 of the last 11 had won over at least 2m 4f This leaves DARKNESS as my trends selection. Im not even convinced this one will line up as the trainer stated after his last run that the horse wasnt ready for the Cheltenham test. Nevertheless we have 2 days to go and he is still in the line up so we shall see. He hasnt done too much wrong this season but hasnt come up against anything like the class of hurdler he will come up against on Wednesday. A tentative each way bet i reckon :ok DARKNESS: 50/1 BET365 or 109/1 BETFAIR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmallTimePunter Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday Few people on here who like Azerty for the QM, I Like Moscow, Winner of all 17 completed races over fences, including this race in 2003, and strong claims to be regarded as the best chaser in training; made amends for last year´s exit in this race when beating Azertyuiop and Well Chief fair and square at Sandown in December and if he puts in another clear round is the one to beat. Already hold the other two, i dont think it will be reversed, in a tight finish i think hell win it... just my view though !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday moscow would become the oldest winner for 28 years if he manages it. I still feel the other 2 will be hard to beat with my course favourite Azertyuiop to pip them both. Whatever you go with, looks a fascinating race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 15, 2005 Author Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday With the Champion Hurdle living up to expectations, ive got similar hopes for the Queen Mother. Just have to think of an excuse to sneak out of the office to watch it now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday Day two R&SA hurdle Royal Paradise Queen Astrid R&SA chase Trabolgan L'Ami Champion Chase Azertyuiop Coral cup Distant prospect Supreme serenade Fountain hill Kim Muir chase Maximise Bumper Snakebite Lennon Betting strategy 1pt ew on all selections except Azertyuiop (5pt win) 25pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 15, 2005 Author Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday Ive gone for a simiar selection to you for tomorrows racing Bowles 2.00 - Reveillez, Queen Astrid, Darkness 2.35 - Trabolgan 3.15 - Azertyuiop 4.00 - Distant Prospect Lets hope for a better day than today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 16, 2005 Share Posted March 16, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday after reflection this morning, i have gone off L'Ami, just dont think the ground will suit. However, even stronger on Trabolgan now & surprised it is drifting on the exchanges, now around 5/1. Considering it has form on good ground earlier in its career & also it's second to Ollie Magern at kempton over 3 miles leads me to believe it should be thereabouts. The negative appears to be Hendersons current form - no winners from last 24 runners. I dont think this is a difficult race to win & will stick with Trabolgan. I have added in Latitude & Montreal to the tricky 4.40 race (kim Muir). Both are from Pipe stable who have won this last 2 years with similar type of horse. Latitude had 2 wins in novice company last March on this type of ground & i would expect an improvement in form today. Montreal also has his ground today & is back on a winning mark today off 125. 1pt ew on Latitiude @ 40/1 Coral 1pt ew on Montreal @ 40/1 W Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 16, 2005 Share Posted March 16, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday had a very good word for REFINEMENT in the bumper. Tabor has backed it & i expect it to be about 4/1 from the 7/1 currently on offer with Ladbrokes. I know Fallon is on it so make of that what you will? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stk1uk Posted March 16, 2005 Share Posted March 16, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday i fancy like a butterfly in the 2.35. She ran to bad to be true when pulled up last time.She could have went for the arkle but trainer thinks she has lost a bit of dash and prefers this option.She is by far the class horse in the race having won a supreme novice hurdle and an AIG (europe) champion hurdle she has also impressed with her jumping.She has won a 2 and a half mile hurdle race on softish ground at leopardstown in 2001 and i think she might stay the distance well. A.P McCoy booked and could run a big race at a decent price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 16, 2005 Share Posted March 16, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday trabolgan goes in at 5/1, i'm glad i stuck with it & well done Aykay also. Azertyuiop gets his feet wet :o , ruby is having a nightmare Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmallTimePunter Posted March 16, 2005 Share Posted March 16, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday Ruby certainly is having a nightmare !!!, good old moscow defies the stats !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 16, 2005 Share Posted March 16, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday Smalltimepunter - well done on going against the trends with Moscow, just a pity that AZert did not give it a race after that early mistake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmallTimePunter Posted March 16, 2005 Share Posted March 16, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Wednesday Yeah would have been a lot closer, it ruins a race for a horse with a blunder, especially at this level, and with it only being 2 miles, usually jumps so well though, would of liked to see the 3 in the air together at the final flight like !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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