Flat Racing ~ Saturday 20th

[BillyHills]

3.30 Newbury: Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) 5f 34yds This race should involve the top few in the betting and if it stays on the soft side it presents a good opportunity for Maarek to get back on the winning trail. He needs plenty of cut to show his best and is well up to winning in this company when things go his way. York Glory and Tickled Pink are respected but I’m not sure the conditions will suit either. Steps and Stepper Point need to improve to win at this level and the class horse in the race Kingsgate Native could do with a dry night but is not out of it despite his penalty. Selections: 3pts Maarek 13/2

Paddy Power 1pt Kingsgate Native 14/1 Stan James

http://www.punterslounge.com/newbury-betting-conditions-look-perfect-for-maarek-to-get-back-on-winning-trail

[arsenalpunter]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 20th Newbury 13.50 Kassiano was an impressive winner when making his UK racecourse debut at Newmarket last month in a Class 2 Conditions race over 1m 2f. The Godolphin runner was always in touch with the leaders and cruised into contention 2f from the finish under Neil Callan who never had to get serious on board, quickening well and running on to score by 3 ½ lengths to Trade Commissioner back in 2^nd. Prior to running in the UK, Kassiano done the majority of his race at Meydan where he won three of his six starts and finished 2^nd twice, including in the Group 1 Al Maktoum Challenge, finishing 2 ¾ lengths behind stablemate Hunter’s Light. Although this race is a step up from that at Newmarket, he won with such style and stayed on well enough to suggest the extra furlong will help too. As long as the rain stays away the ground should also be on his side and with stable jockey Silvestre De Sousa in the saddle he could be tough to pass. Camborne was a winner over further at Doncaster earlier this month but has also won over a furlong shorter previously. He finished 2^nd in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot last year and a similar performance, with him staying on strongly at the business end, should see him go close for with Robert Havlin taking the ride. 14.20 The Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes has attracted 9 entries this year, including two for Richard Hannon in Shamshon and Anticipated. The former is likely to be sent off favourite after making it two wins from two starts in a Listed race at Deauville last month and with the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes his target, connections will be hoping he can complete the hat-trick. I will take the favourite on though and side with Richard Hannon’s ‘second string’ Anticipated who is making the step up to the 6f trip after finishing a close 2^nd behind Brown Sugar in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at the Glorious Goodwood meeting. The horse was slowly into stride from the stalls and Richard Hughes was the first jockey to get to work on board the colt. Despite this the horse stayed on powerfully inside the final furlong and was just denied, going down by a neck in the end. He also went close in this year’s Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, finishing 3^rd just behind Extortionist and Supplicant. Again, the horse ran on well inside the final furlong and based on the two performances mentioned he should appreciate the step up in trip here. This will be the horse’s toughest race to date but I believe he’s an improving type with plenty of speed about him and he has the benefit on champion jockey Richard Hughes riding again. 14.55 For the fourth race we have the most valuable race on the card in the shape of the Class 2 Dubai Duty Free Handicap over 1m 2f where Mark Johnston has a trio of entries, including the consistent Fennell Bay who is likely to run a decent race again, this will be his 18^th start so far this year though and he keeps his highest mark to date so it’s tough to see further improvement here and may not have enough to factor at the finish. The interesting entry is the horse trained by Ger Lyons, Saxo Jack. With four runs over in Ireland which has included two wins and a place, he’s been sent over for this race and although 7lb higher than his latest victory he remains unexposed and there could be plenty more to come. Saxo Jack’s first win came at Leopardstown on Good to Firm ground over 1m 2f. After being in contention and leading for much of the race, he soon kicked clear and was eased down towards the finish, still scoring by 3 ½ lengths to Al Destoor. Last time out he was switched to the polytrack surface at Dundalk last time out for a decent handicap over 1m 2f 150yards where he beat the consistent Steps To Freedom by ½ a length. This time round the horse wasn’t sent to the front as early as previously but when asked to go on and win the race, the horse responded well to pressure and perhaps won with a bit more in hand at the line. This is another step up for the horse but it’s unlikely that the trainer would send the horse over from Ireland if he didn’t have the potential and the 7lb hike up in the weights may not be enough to stop him from being there or thereabouts at the finish here. The slight concern could be the ground if any further rain came but current conditions should suit. 15.30 8-year-old Kingsgate Native is set to have his 7^th start of the year in the Group 3 Dubai International Airport World Trophy and he can make up for last year’s defeat in this race when he finished a desperately close 2^nd behind Swiss Spirit after being short of room inside the 2f marker. His two best performances this year have both came in group company, firstly when winning the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock in May where he had plenty of top sprinters in behind him, including the previously mentioned Swiss Spirit, Sole Power who went on to win the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, Morawij who won the Listed Scurry Stakes at Sandown in June and finally Masamah who won a valuable handicap at Ascot back in July. The selection also finished 2^nd in the Group 3 Coral Charge at Sandown in the summer, finishing a length behind Tickled Pink. Over 2f from home the horse looked to be travelling well under Shane Kelly but found himself short of room a furlong from the finish and had to be quickly shifted left and although finishing strongly when he was in the clear he couldn’t reach the winner. Last time out Kingsgate Native was 5^th of 17 in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York last month, finishing only 2 lengths behind the winner Jwala. This race looks like a slightly easier assignment and the Robert Cowell trained horse, and if the ground continues to dry out his chances will increase further. Newmarket 14.30 Wedding Ring is likely to off a short price for the Class 2 100,000 Tattersalls Millions Fillies Median Auction Stakes but following on from her debut win in a maiden over 6f on the July Course at Newmarket the Godolphin trained filly has continued to run with credit in better company. The debut win saw the horse beat Ihtimal by a neck. The form of that race has been franked since with Ihtimal winning the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes and following up that success with a win in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes earlier this month. Wedding Ring was behind Ihtimal in the Sweet Solera Stakes but the extra furlong didn’t suit the horse and 6f looks to be the optimum trip. Prior to that race the selection was 5^th in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, plenty of the horses in behind her that day have gone on to win better races since, including Lucky Kristale who has won both starts in Group 2 company since. Firstly the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes and then the Lowther Stakes. Last time out the horse was 3^rd in the Dick Poole Fillies Stakes at Salisbury, finishing 3 lengths behind Joyeuse. Charlie Appleby looks to of found Wedding Ring an ideal race here for her to return to the winners enclosure again and with further racecourse experience to her name she should continue to progress further. 15.05 After being beaten odds on favourite on debut at Hamilton, it’s tough to have much confidence behind the Mark Johnston trained colt Quickaswecan but I’m going to take a chance on him improving with the experience under his belt it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him sneak into the placings at a big price. He finished 2 ½ lengths behind Invincible Strike over 6f at Hamilton in a Class 5 Maiden however Joe Fanning found himself short of room aboard the horse inside the final furlong and he was eased down towards the line. The front two still kicked clear of the remainder of the field, including Ronya who was placed in a better event next time out. The horse holds a couple of interesting entries including the 500,000 Tattersalls Millions and also the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes. There could be plenty more to come from Quickaswecan following his debut effort and he’s worth taking a chance on here. Jallota is the obvious danger in an easier race after finishing 4^th behind No Nay Never at Deauville in the Group 1 Darley Prix Morny last time out. 15.40 The Class 2 Cesarewitch Trial Stakes Handicap over 2m 2f has attracted 19 runners but the prize money can be landed by the Tom Tate stable in the shape of Eagle Rock who won over 2m 88yards at York in a Class 4 contest earlier this month. The horse led for much of the race but was headed over 2f from the finish, however he gamely battled back inside the final furlong to get up by a neck to the 2^nd placed Flashman. Prior to that victory he ran some creditable efforts in defeat including when 4 ¼ lengths behind Broxbourne over the same course and distance. Although Eagle Rock is also 5lb higher in the weights since that race, Broxbourne is now on a mark of 94 which looks very high, and the placing’s can be reversed here. Eagle Rock finished 3^rd in this race last year finishing 5 ½ lengths behind the winner Domination, that time round the horse raced towards the rear of the field for much of the race but with a more positive ride the horse is likely to go much closer. William Buick is a positive jockey booking, riding the horse for the first time, and he is taken to land the money here.