Flat Racing ~ Saturday 20th

[BillyHills]

3.30 Newbury: Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) 5f 34yds This race should involve the top few in the betting and if it stays on the soft side it presents a good opportunity for Maarek to get back on the winning trail. He needs plenty of cut to show his best and is well up to winning in this company when things go his way. York Glory and Tickled Pink are respected but I’m not sure the conditions will suit either. Steps and Stepper Point need to improve to win at this level and the class horse in the race Kingsgate Native could do with a dry night but is not out of it despite his penalty. Selections: 3pts Maarek 13/2

>Paddy Power 1pt Kingsgate Native 14/1 Stan James

http://www.punterslounge.com/newbury-betting-conditions-look-perfect-for-maarek-to-get-back-on-winning-trail

[arsenalpunter]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 20th Newbury 13.50 Kassiano was an impressive winner when making his UK racecourse debut at Newmarket last month in a Class 2 Conditions race over 1m 2f. The Godolphin runner was always in touch with the leaders and cruised into contention 2f from the finish under Neil Callan who never had to get serious on board, quickening well and running on to score by 3 ½ lengths to Trade Commissioner back in 2^nd. Prior to running in the UK, Kassiano done the majority of his race at Meydan where he won three of his six starts and finished 2^nd twice, including in the Group 1 Al Maktoum Challenge, finishing 2 ¾ lengths behind stablemate Hunter’s Light. Although this race is a step up from that at Newmarket, he won with such style and stayed on well enough to suggest the extra furlong will help too. As long as the rain stays away the ground should also be on his side and with stable jockey Silvestre De Sousa in the saddle he could be tough to pass. Camborne was a winner over further at Doncaster earlier this month but has also won over a furlong shorter previously. He finished 2^nd in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot last year and a similar performance, with him staying on strongly at the business end, should see him go close for with Robert Havlin taking the ride. 14.20 The Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes has attracted 9 entries this year, including two for Richard Hannon in Shamshon and Anticipated. The former is likely to be sent off favourite after making it two wins from two starts in a Listed race at Deauville last month and with the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes his target, connections will be hoping he can complete the hat-trick. I will take the favourite on though and side with Richard Hannon’s ‘second string’ Anticipated who is making the step up to the 6f trip after finishing a close 2^nd behind Brown Sugar in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at the Glorious Goodwood meeting. The horse was slowly into stride from the stalls and Richard Hughes was the first jockey to get to work on board the colt. Despite this the horse stayed on powerfully inside the final furlong and was just denied, going down by a neck in the end. He also went close in this year’s Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, finishing 3^rd just behind Extortionist and Supplicant. Again, the horse ran on well inside the final furlong and based on the two performances mentioned he should appreciate the step up in trip here. This will be the horse’s toughest race to date but I believe he’s an improving type with plenty of speed about him and he has the benefit on champion jockey Richard Hughes riding again. 14.55 For the fourth race we have the most valuable race on the card in the shape of the Class 2 Dubai Duty Free Handicap over 1m 2f where Mark Johnston has a trio of entries, including the consistent Fennell Bay who is likely to run a decent race again, this will be his 18^th start so far this year though and he keeps his highest mark to date so it’s tough to see further improvement here and may not have enough to factor at the finish. The interesting entry is the horse trained by Ger Lyons, Saxo Jack. With four runs over in Ireland which has included two wins and a place, he’s been sent over for this race and although 7lb higher than his latest victory he remains unexposed and there could be plenty more to come. Saxo Jack’s first win came at Leopardstown on Good to Firm ground over 1m 2f. After being in contention and leading for much of the race, he soon kicked clear and was eased down towards the finish, still scoring by 3 ½ lengths to Al Destoor. Last time out he was switched to the polytrack surface at Dundalk last time out for a decent handicap over 1m 2f 150yards where he beat the consistent Steps To Freedom by ½ a length. This time round the horse wasn’t sent to the front as early as previously but when asked to go on and win the race, the horse responded well to pressure and perhaps won with a bit more in hand at the line. This is another step up for the horse but it’s unlikely that the trainer would send the horse over from Ireland if he didn’t have the potential and the 7lb hike up in the weights may not be enough to stop him from being there or thereabouts at the finish here. The slight concern could be the ground if any further rain came but current conditions should suit. 15.30 8-year-old Kingsgate Native is set to have his 7^th start of the year in the Group 3 Dubai International Airport World Trophy and he can make up for last year’s defeat in this race when he finished a desperately close 2^nd behind Swiss Spirit after being short of room inside the 2f marker. His two best performances this year have both came in group company, firstly when winning the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock in May where he had plenty of top sprinters in behind him, including the previously mentioned Swiss Spirit, Sole Power who went on to win the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, Morawij who won the Listed Scurry Stakes at Sandown in June and finally Masamah who won a valuable handicap at Ascot back in July. The selection also finished 2^nd in the Group 3 Coral Charge at Sandown in the summer, finishing a length behind Tickled Pink. Over 2f from home the horse looked to be travelling well under Shane Kelly but found himself short of room a furlong from the finish and had to be quickly shifted left and although finishing strongly when he was in the clear he couldn’t reach the winner. Last time out Kingsgate Native was 5^th of 17 in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York last month, finishing only 2 lengths behind the winner Jwala. This race looks like a slightly easier assignment and the Robert Cowell trained horse, and if the ground continues to dry out his chances will increase further. Newmarket 14.30 Wedding Ring is likely to off a short price for the Class 2 100,000 Tattersalls Millions Fillies Median Auction Stakes but following on from her debut win in a maiden over 6f on the July Course at Newmarket the Godolphin trained filly has continued to run with credit in better company. The debut win saw the horse beat Ihtimal by a neck. The form of that race has been franked since with Ihtimal winning the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes and following up that success with a win in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes earlier this month. Wedding Ring was behind Ihtimal in the Sweet Solera Stakes but the extra furlong didn’t suit the horse and 6f looks to be the optimum trip. Prior to that race the selection was 5^th in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, plenty of the horses in behind her that day have gone on to win better races since, including Lucky Kristale who has won both starts in Group 2 company since. Firstly the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes and then the Lowther Stakes. Last time out the horse was 3^rd in the Dick Poole Fillies Stakes at Salisbury, finishing 3 lengths behind Joyeuse. Charlie Appleby looks to of found Wedding Ring an ideal race here for her to return to the winners enclosure again and with further racecourse experience to her name she should continue to progress further. 15.05 After being beaten odds on favourite on debut at Hamilton, it’s tough to have much confidence behind the Mark Johnston trained colt Quickaswecan but I’m going to take a chance on him improving with the experience under his belt it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him sneak into the placings at a big price. He finished 2 ½ lengths behind Invincible Strike over 6f at Hamilton in a Class 5 Maiden however Joe Fanning found himself short of room aboard the horse inside the final furlong and he was eased down towards the line. The front two still kicked clear of the remainder of the field, including Ronya who was placed in a better event next time out. The horse holds a couple of interesting entries including the 500,000 Tattersalls Millions and also the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes. There could be plenty more to come from Quickaswecan following his debut effort and he’s worth taking a chance on here. Jallota is the obvious danger in an easier race after finishing 4^th behind No Nay Never at Deauville in the Group 1 Darley Prix Morny last time out. 15.40 The Class 2 Cesarewitch Trial Stakes Handicap over 2m 2f has attracted 19 runners but the prize money can be landed by the Tom Tate stable in the shape of Eagle Rock who won over 2m 88yards at York in a Class 4 contest earlier this month. The horse led for much of the race but was headed over 2f from the finish, however he gamely battled back inside the final furlong to get up by a neck to the 2^nd placed Flashman. Prior to that victory he ran some creditable efforts in defeat including when 4 ¼ lengths behind Broxbourne over the same course and distance. Although Eagle Rock is also 5lb higher in the weights since that race, Broxbourne is now on a mark of 94 which looks very high, and the placing’s can be reversed here. Eagle Rock finished 3^rd in this race last year finishing 5 ½ lengths behind the winner Domination, that time round the horse raced towards the rear of the field for much of the race but with a more positive ride the horse is likely to go much closer. William Buick is a positive jockey booking, riding the horse for the first time, and he is taken to land the money here.

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 20th

220 Newbury: Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (6f8yds) This looks good for Richard Hannon and his first string Shamshon; he hosed up at Sandown on his debut and then was impressive enough in Deauville last time in Listed company. He steps up in trip but everything suggests he will benefit from the extra furlong. Hannon’s other horse Anticipated has plenty of experience and won’t be far away although he did run below par last time. Figure Of Speech could be the danger to Shamshon, he seems to be improving with races and his second last time at Kempton was a very solid effort and the yard continue to be in cracking form. Selections: 2pts Shamshon 5/2

Coral 1pt Figure Of Speech 6/1 >Bet365

http://www.punterslounge.com/newbury-betting-hannon-can-take-mill-reef-stakes-with-shamshon

[joeblitz]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 20th Brilliant write ups lads. I think Maarek and Anticipated both have good chances tomorrow but I'll just be a viewer I'm afraid. I find this time of year tough on the flat.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 20th Won the silver cup last year ''2012'' and seems to like the Scottish course, nice looking draw coming out gate 21 - when he won last years silver cup he came out gate 20 so would be no surprise seeing him take promotion and stick the gold next to his silver on the stable door. Jockey P.Mulrennan has some tasty looking rides, but this must be the one that would put the biggest smile on his face, he went close to a winner yesterday here at Ayr on Mash Potato in the last just getting beat a head, he never got the mash but it would be all Gravy if he takes the gold. Trip, going, course, jockey, price are all positives and worth a Saturday punt, wide open race as per, so best of luck with your selections. Ayr Gold Cup, Kick off 3:50 ​Mass Rally E/W Bet.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 20th 3:50 Ayr: Lover Man 2pts win 33/1 Coral & Gabriel's Lad 1pt win 14/1 888sport Lover Man looks quite interesting here for Keith Dalgleish. He ahd some secent form in France and has the look of a horse that has been targeted at this race. Ground should not be a problem and looks worth chancing. Gabriel's Lad has been running over seven, however that extra stamina can often be a help in some of these big six furlong handicaps. That aside he also has some creditable form over six and looks ok on the ground. 2:20 Newbury: Shamshon 1pt win 5/2 William Hill Shamshon looks very much a colt on the up. The win at Deauville was an impressive effort and assuming he handles the ground should take this on the way to even better things. 2:40 Ayr: An Saighdiur 1pt win 16/1 & Polski Max 2pts win 40/1 both Ladbrokes An Saighdiur looks as though he has been primed for a big run after last years place finish. The going should be fine and the draw looks encouraging. Dangers abound however An Saighdiur brings some of the strongest credentials to the race. Polski Max looks well overpriced here, particularly with the soft going. Only three he may be up against it, but plenty of scope and could run well at a massive price with a good claimer taking off five.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 20th 15.50 Ayr: Khubala @ 14/1 Bet365 - 1pt win Such a competitive race of course, but I really like the chance of Khubala who could go close from a good draw with conditions in favour. He wasn't disgraced in Germany in a Group 3 last month and was very progressive through the last two years as well as very consistent in bringing his a-game to the track. couple of really strong performances this year when finishing well in big Handicaps, so no reason why he shouldn't go close again, as he looks capable of running well of his current mark and he has no problem with soft ground either. 16.05 Newbury: Master Carpenter @ 5/1 William Hill - 3pts win Master Carpenter is the highest rated horse in this field and on form the strongest contender anyway. He comes in this race after a very strong performance at Doncaster in a hot class 2 Handicap. He travelled really well that day, but got a bit stuck in traffic in a key moment of the race, when the horses in front had the chance to kick on while he had to delay his challenge. Once in the clear he took a while to hit top gear as he doesn't really look to have a decisive turn of foot, not over 7f at least, but it isn't easy for a young horse to demonstrate a sudden acceleration when it's stuck behind other horses and suddenly a gap opens. He finished the race super strongly then tough, to finish in 2nd place. I suspect he gets further and would be suited by a step up in trip to 1m but for now seven furlongs should be fine, particularly on soft ground. His sire Mastercraftsman absolutely relished these kind of conditions and as acceleration isn't really that easy on slow going this should play into Master Carpenter's hands and running style who will stay all the way to the line once he is in full swing.

[smith17]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 20th 14.05 Ayr: Willie The Whipper, 11/2 Bet365, win Willie The Whipper won a listed race in his last start in 2012. He started this season in a group 3 at Chester when he was well beaten by Magician. He then went to France for a group 1 when he ran well to finish sixth of nineteen. Lto he was disappointing as he never got involved in a group 2. Dropped to this level and with the ground to suit, he should go close. Jamie Spencer is in the saddle. 14.40 Ayr: Sir Reginald, 16/1 Paddy Power, e/w & Trail Blaze, 14/1 Paddy Power, e/w (1/4, 12345) Sir Reginald won well lto despite not having the clearest of runs. He was held up in the back of the stands side group. When he started to make progress about 2f out, a horse on his inside hung left and carried SR a bit left. He finished very well to win by a neck from Bertiewhittle. He has only gone up two pounds for that win and he has a good chance of following up here. The ground and trip are ideal. Trainer Richard Fahey is in decent form and he has a solid record at Ayr. Paul Hanagan is a big plus in the saddle, especially in a race like this. Trail Blaze has been running well in big handicaps all season. He finished a ½L second in the International Stakes at Ascot before finishing third in the Summer Cup at Thirsk. He then went to Ripon where he was a bit disappointing but he returned to form lto at Ascot to finish fourth, 1½L behind Redvers. He runs from the same mark again today. The ground won't be a problem. The trip is a slight worry as he is better over seven furlongs but this should be quick and his stamina could come into play. Neil Callan is in the saddle. 3.50 Ayr: Hasopop, 33/1 Boylesports, e/w & Mass Rally, 20/1 Boylesports, e/w (1/4,12345) Hasopop finished third in a strong handicap at Ascot lto, finishing 1½L behind Redvers. The ground and trip will suit and a big run is expected. Trainer Marco Botti is in good form with 9 winners, including his last three, from 39 runners so far this month. He sends just one horse to Ayr today. The jockey is a bit of a worry as he has had only 1 winner form 41 rides in the UK. Mass Rally won the Silver Cup over c&d last year. His last three runs have been in class 1 company. Three runs ago he finished a head behind Jack Dexter off level weights and gets a five pound swing today so should reverse that form. He has run well in similar handicaps this season and he should go well again today. The ground will suit. Trainer Michael Dods is in decent form and Paul Mulrennan is in the saddle. Prices taken earlier and posted in my thread.

[smith17]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 20th 2.55 Newbury: Saxo Jack, 6/1 >Bet365, win Saxo Jack won on his handicap debut lto, beating the top class Steps To Freedom by ½L. He has been put up seven pounds for that win but I think he could still have a bit in hand over the handicapper and he should go well. This is his first time encountering soft ground but he ran well on yielding in his debut run. The trip is ideal. Trainer Ger Lyons is in good form, with 3 winners and a place from his eight runners over the last two weeks. He has had 5 winners from 32 runners in the UK in the last five years. Gary Carroll continues in the saddle having been on board for all four of SJ's runs. 3.30 Newbury: Stepper Point, 12/1 >Bet365, win Stepper Point won the listed Beverly Bullet Sprint lto beating the re-opposing York Glory by a neck. He needs to step up on that again but he comes here in good form and he should go well. The ground will suit. Trainer William Muir is in decent form and Martin Dwyer is in the saddle. 5.25 Newmarket: Willow Beck, 5/1 >Betvictor, win Willow Beck finished second lto over 10f on this track when attempting to complete a five timer. He steps up in trip by 2f which should suit. The return to better ground will also suit as the ground was a bit too slow for her lto. Trainer John Gosden has a very good record at Newmarket and he is in decent form. William Buick is a big plus in the saddle. Prices taken earlier and posted in my thread.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 20th 18.10 Catterick: Viva Ronaldo @ 6/1 Coral - 2pts win Utterly disappointing year for Viva Ronaldo so far and as a result of that he slipped down in the mark, down to 60 now, while winning of 84 last year. There was a hint of form to see in his mist recent run at Musselburgh. He was pretty badly outpaced in rear, got then stuck in traffic in the home straight, switched widest over 1f out and stayed on well there. I feel he is very well handicapped now and judged on this run he should win a race any time soon again. Catterick is a difficult track but maybe it's this kind of test he might relish. It's a really poor race and the assistance of a 7lb claimer makes him super well weighted here. He would probably prefer a bit cut in the ground, but good ground is fine nonetheless and as Richard Fahey is in excellent form so I hope Viva Ronaldo can finally win a race again.