radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Total weeks: 4 Profit/Loss:+41,53 Units Livestream Bets looking at horses shortly before the off, trying to find Value. No form watch. 1 Unit per bet always. How I find my bets, I look at the horses live and ask myself if they are good for the certain task and look at the odds and check if there is value. The main part i look at a horse is balance in the body. For staying races 2m7f+ i look at different things especially Deep ground marathons. Few things to look for in general over the distances 5f-2m4f: 1. You want a horse to be balanced on the shoulder point to the back point with a neck that fits into the overall body size. A long neck is very bad indication or long legs and overall body inbalance. 2. Over sprints you want a horse to have a slight downrise from the body structure of the back muscles to the front shoulders. Its like a gear from the back that is the motor, but you have to look for overall body balance again a good back with poor front means nothing. 3. Over deeep ground hurdles or marathons the thing is again different, here you look out for long necked stayer types that dig in with their front legs. 4. Attitude often you spot horses being keen or nervous in the ring, mostly they make an erratic pace and fade. There are more behaviours that you will learn with observation. 5. Tracklayout with experience you will get an idea what courses horses characteristics suit. For example on a hurdles 2m4f trip with uphill runin you can spot a very balanced horses that races fine, but gets overtaken late by a less balanced gawky neck stayer type. 6. So many details, you see with live observation, cant explain all. The most important thing is if the horse has the physical attributes to do something, the behaviour then determines how much of that is brought in the race and the racepanout + jockey decisions make the rest. So I dont choose a horse because of its behaviour, i choose cause im convinced it has good physical attributes and bet if the attitude seems okay. You never know, as attitude changes, but to giver you an idea, the physical conformation plays the most important part in my bets. Cheers rade! Always 1 Unit per bet, if I Lay the 1 Unit* the odds is the loss. No percentage betting increase imo. Improvements for the future: As ive realized the quantity of bets is too high: 90 bets a week isnt good it should go to around 30 bets per week maximum and then more selected ones with short price Lays or good priced winners. Thats what i want to work on for the future... Iam aware that people cant play these picks properly, as it is too short before the off or the second it starts, but this thread is there to give an understanding of the value of direct observation and make people do this themselves and integrate this into their betting approach. Im sure the socalled Betfair Smart money shortly before the off is from big punters who judge on course and need to see them to the gates. AvG winner odds first week: 6,79 BSP Total bets week 1: 90 Total bets week 2: 56 Total bets week 3: 20 Total Units Win/ Loss: +41,53 Units Total for the week: Week 1: +63,58 Units Week 2: +20,63 Units Week 3: -18 Units Week 4: -4,94 Units Week 5: -19,74 Units Current week 5: -8,2 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! 3.05 Ascot Saytara 4,8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Saytara 4th beaten 1,5 length Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! 3.20 Carl Beacon Lodge 2,64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! pulled too much unpl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! 2.30 Pontfract Muharrer 7.2 Handsome Ransom 30.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! 3.40 Ascot Red Refraction 5,3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! 3.55 Carlisle Party Line 5.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! 4.05 Pontefract Aesop Fables 4.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Ascot 4.15 Take Two 9,6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Gulfstream Park 7.45 Race 4 La Hijaa de Olga 4.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Saratoga Race 7 21.07 Song of Aspen 150 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Woodbine 21.24 Lay Sensible Lady 4.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! 21.39 Saratoga Colorme Kitten 17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! 21.29 Louis Race 6 Phil Will 2,5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! 21.57 Woodbine R9 Devil in Willie 30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Day 1: 3.05 Ascot Saytara 4,8 Saytara 4th beaten 1,5 length :spank 3.20 Carl Beacon Lodge 2,64 4th 2.30 Pontefract Muharrer 7.2 2nd neck:spank Handsome Ransom 30.0 unpl 3.40 Ascot Red Refraction 5,3 1st:clap 3.55 Carlisle Party Line 5.0 3rd 2 length:spank 4.05 Pontefract Aesop Fables 4.6 3rd 6 length raced wide giving the win strong horse if calm one to follow:spank Ascot 4.15 Take Two 9,6 7th pulled Gulfstream Park 7.45 Race 4 La Hijaa de Olga 4.6 1st:clap Saratoga Race 7 21.07 Song of Aspen 150 unpl Woodbine 21.24 Lay Sensible Lady 4.2 unpl:clap 21.39 Saratoga Colorme Kitten 17 3rd:spank 21.29 Louis Race 6 Phil Will 2,5 1st:clap 21.57 Woodbine R9 Devil in Willie 30 2nd:spank Day 1 Result: +0,2 Units (many big priced 2nds or 3rds:spank) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Day 2: Wolv 2.45 Very First Blade 18 unpl Ayr 3.00 BeatTheTide 3.0 ( Soft Ground galloper looks fit and low weighted) 1st:clap Wolv 15.15 Excellent News 23 ( Very nice body ratio, calm shiny and muscled for weight, fav too low takes the book ) unpl Ayr 3.30 Joshua The First 5.5 unpl Wolv 3.45 Place Lay Copper Leyf 5,8 ( very unruly jumping around in the paddock not focussed) unpl Galway 7.40 Habesh 19 unpl Windsor 6.00 Bold Spirit 2,3 unpl Day 2: -2 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! 7.35 Perth Sultana Belle 4.2 3rd The best horse in that race, only problem is the track didnt suit in the end the climb wasnt for this type and a small reduction in distance would suit this strong traveller. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Perth 20.05 Lay Mumbles Head 3,8 1st Wrong selection for a Lay I saw two nice types for travelling and thought they will stay this distance, but the Perth hill was too much and Mumbles Head a poor traveller, but long necked stayer simply was the only one that could stay. Wasnt aware of this uphill and underestimate the 3miles there. Wont happen again mistake lesson learned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Wor 20.50 Mission Complete 20 2nd neck:spank Damn close affair, 2m7f even track this horse had lot of weight adavantage with Bottom weight and Claimer Lineham got pipped by the fav at huge odds. My reason for picking, was that MComplete had a pretty nice body ratio and the neck was in proportion. Many of these were wrongly priced. Give Mission Complete the 3miles and a stiff track and its lost, but today with these weights and competitors on a flat track was surely overpriced as the result confirms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Suffolk Downs Race 8 Outside the PL I try a reverse Exacta with number 2 Princess Appeal and number 8 AJ S Hot Mamba they both 3.0 BSP and number 8 an ideal type for 6f on the outer thin but higher on back than front and number 2 has nice muscling and good body neck ratio. Most of others are wrongly put together and have bad neck ratio. Only Mamba won the race number 4th or 5th i think... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Finger Lakes Race 8 6f Allowance Lay number 5 4,8 BSP 2nd:cow Had a bit of a gawcky neck more stayer was picking up the weakening horses but found one too strong far away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Suff Race 9Lay number 1 1,68 unpl:cow Reason was very simple, the hot fav tried to break the gate to early and was hanging in there, when race began went off too fast and faded quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Finger Lakes Race 9 1st:cow Number 7 Fried i fancy here at a fair price of 5.3 BSP not too high, but except number 3 and 6 not many that I can spot that could be good 5f sprinters. No 3 has short legs, a nice attribute for sprints, number 6 is quite well put together but with equipment, number 7 looks te best type back higher than front,ideal neck conformation and healthy and not too muscled up just right. That was the jackpot i had nearly the right tricast Fried won easy and impressive and number 6 and 3 came 2nd and 4th online with the 3rd:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Fairmont Park Race 8 Number 7 Brahms Song 28 BSP 1st:cow Selected, as it was way too overpriced for a good body neck ration and a collected attitude, flew home with a wide trip and nicked the whole field online at big odds. First longshot in im happy:clap:cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Fort Erie Race 4 6f Claimer Just Like Boo 1,5 BSP to place unpl Number 6 Pretty Pretty Please will have loads of speed compact low legged sprinter type that could make a huge early gap and win from the front. Market confirms as 2nd fav. Number 2 Just Like Boo is market fav at 3.1 BSP Win but i have to say vs these its not hard to place. Most of these are completely wrongly put together and Just Like Boo has everything right and im sure it will place. So for me its Value to take the 1,5 BSP for 3 places as I see a possible danger with speedy sort number 6. Pretty Pretty Please won from the front and Just like Boo wasted too much energy on the turn going wide and fading quickly from 2nd into 4th or 5th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Day 3: +27,5 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 31, 2013 Author Share Posted July 31, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! Redcar 15.15 Bollin Dolly 16 unpl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted July 31, 2013 Author Share Posted July 31, 2013 Re: Search vor Value Bets! 3.25 Perth Inrunning Merry Minster 5,5 unpl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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