Flat Racing Friday 26th July

[joeblitz]

A poor day yesterday taking my monthly profit down to a disappointing +115.09 So for tomorrow just one with maybe more to follow tomorrow? 8.50 Down Royal Royal Irish Huzzar 5/2 Paddy Power A more competitive race than it looks. Dabadiyan has been impressive in a maiden and handicap at the Curragh over 12f and shapes as though he will stay the extra furlong. Like most of the Aga's he has improved and may have more in him. In fairness, the Curragh handicap he won wasn't the strongest but you can do no more than beat your opposition and he did it well. Sir Ector has won over c/d and lto finished 2nd to Irish Leger winner Royal Diamond. Any softening of the ground would play to his strengths and at 9/2 is almost but not quite an e/w bet to nothing. However the won I like is Royal Irish Huzzar who bolted up at Killarney over 14f by 11lengths won last year by Chamonix who went on to win in listed company later on in the season. The second horse there also bolted up in a maiden during the week franking the form. As a horse of uncapped potential who will stay the distance I exppect him to win here and continue his upward curve. 10 point win Royal Irish Huzzar 5/2 Paddy Power

[colako]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 26th July Any less confidence considering the deluge of rain in Ireland overnight, as you say might suite sir ector

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 26th July Aragorn Icon - Down Royal 7:15 - Each Way @ 14/1 Bet365 Won at Killarney off a mark of 65 back in 2011. Runs off a mark of 49 today, which is ridiculously low, 16 pounds lower than last win. Has run on the all-weather last 5 runs, so now hits the turf for the first time in a while. Yard doing ok and Seamie Heffernan a good booking.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 26th July 2.35 Ascot - 2pts win Mr Matthews @ 7/2 (BetVictor) The Hannon runner looks very short to me. Have to respect the market support but on balance Karl Burke's charge looks like the one to be on at the prices. 7/2 looks very fair about a horse with rock solid form in the book and is on an upward curve. Built on a promising debut to run out a comfortable winner at Carlisle on his second outing (74 horse well held in 2nd). In a small Newcastle race, Burke's runner could only finish second to a very smart type who subsequently has won a Group 2, rated 103. He was by no means disgraced and again ran very well at York when last seen. He looked all over the winner on that occasion, travelling into the lead like a dream, but didn't find an awful lot under pressure when getting there and was beaten a length in third ultimately. At least the runner-up won next time to frank the form and it was still a good effort. Presumably will be held onto for longer today as he could just be an idle sort in front and he has quite a pronounced action which suggests that the slight ease in going could aid him a bit. Still looks to have room to manoeuvre off his mark of 82 and has cheekpieces applied today for the first time to aid his concentration. There's no denying that the favourite is well thought of (sent off at odds on both starts to date) and the step up to 6f will suit, but 5/4 is alarmingly short and can legitimately be taken on.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 26th July 3.10 Ascot - 3pts win Mysterious Man @ 3/1 (Boyles) Andrew Balding's big gelding ran a really good race in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting last time out, making most of the running when coming home in 5th. Raced freely on the lead but still had enough in the tank to repel most raiders up the straight and proved his stamina is no concern. Still, the drop back to two miles can hopefully help him to settle in his race and this small field could prove ideal for him to dominate. It was always going to be tricky to make all in such a competitive, large-sized field on that occasion but this six-runner contest can play to his strengths as there seems little to trouble him on the front end should he decide to be ridden positively (I feel he should). He's a proper galloping type so 1m5f at Chester two starts back was never going to be ideal (respectable 3rd) and his short-head runner up on seasonal reappearance was a top effort - chinned by progressive type now rated 16lbs higher. My selection is only 4lbs higher than that day now and with conditions ideal, it's hard to see him not bang there.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 26th July 6.30 York - 2pts win Mappin Time @ 16/1 (BetVictor) Backed this horse at Haydock last time over 5f but he was outpaced in the early stages (as feared) before coming home really well. He's quite a tricky type as he needs a good gallop and fast ground, ideally over 6f, but often doesn't get it all to come together and can only run adequately without winning. However, at his price, he's well worth another go this evening. He's back up to 6f on a flat track which will help and the ground is going to be on the quick side (currently good to firm, sunny day ahead). Both of his handicap wins have come off higher marks so he's fairly treated and this big field should play to his strengths. 20 runners go to post which means he'll need luck in running but the size of the field should ensure a good gallop so ultimately there should be no excuses providing luck in the run. He's drawn in the middle which could be ideal and should go very well.

[arsenalpunter]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 26th July 15:45 Ascot 1m 0f Class 1 Woodcote Stud E B F Valiant Stakes (Fillies Listed) Selection: Falls of Lora Each Way 8/1 Betfred Godolphin send three fillies into this race, Falls of Lora, Zibelina and Dark Orchid. Dark Orchid looks unlikely to be troubling many of these based on her most recent effort where she finished behind the selection, although she may appreciate the drop back to 1m. Between the other two, both are in with chances but we don’t have much to go on with Zibelina with only the one run to date. She was an impressive winner at Newcastle over 7f on Good to Soft ground but this is a massive step up in class and the conditions should be much quicker. I am going to side with Godolphins other representative, Falls of Lora, who has four wins to her name, including one over course and distance back in 2011. Although she hasn’t been seen in the winners enclosure for over a year now she did run with some credibility the following race when finishing back in 8th, 4 lengths behind the winner Dank, in the Group 3 Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association Atlanta Stakes at Sandown over a mile despite being badly hampered inside the final furlong when going for a run on the inside, she may not of won on the occasion had she not been hampered but she certainly wouldn’t of been far away and may of at least been placed. She was slightly more disappointing in her next race when featuring in the Listed Mawatheeq Rosemary Stakes when finishing 7th of 10 but she was still only 3 lengths behind the first and second, Chigun and Thistle Bird respectively, who have both gone on to win Group 3 races since. She also showed that she would of been closer to Dank had she not been hampered at Sandown by only finishing around half a length behind her here. She has had two races so far this year, one in Meydan where she finished 4th in a Group 2 contest and last time out where she was upped in trip to 1m 2f at Newcastle on slower ground, Good to Soft, Soft in Places. Robert Havlin held the filly up towards the rear of the field and she never really looked like being involved despite having some headway 2f from home. The trip was probably too far for her there and she will appreciate the return to mile and also the better ground here. She drops to a mark of 100 and if she can reproduce the form that she has shown previously she should be there or thereabouts at the finish.

[arsenalpunter]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 26th July 19:50 Chepstow 5f 16yds Class 5 Reid Lifting Handicap Selection: Lager Time After three 2nd placed finishes on the bounce, connections of Lager Time may be starting to wonder if they will see the 3 year old get his head in front again. He was unlucky not to win on Tuesday at Ffos Las when beaten 1/2 a length by Spic ‘n Span over 5f. The horse missed the break and Adam Kirby settled the horse on the rail, he settled and looked to be travelling well but there was a lack of room for Kirby to make his move, when the gap eventually came he stormed through inside the final furlong but the eventual winner Spic ‘n Span had already gone clear and he wasn’t going to be caught. Going down to the start prior to that race Lager Time had looked like he was going to play up at the stalls and that is a slight concern, over the 5f distance if you miss the break leaving the stalls it’s tough to get back into the race and with this contest coming over the same distance, the start could prove to be vital to Lager Time’s chances. He was seen at Chepstow two runs ago when stepping up in trip to 6f, he broke well that day and came through the field well to race up top with the leaders, the trip was possibly slightly too far for him though on the quick ground and he seemed to go down without much of a battle in the closing stages. The return to 5f seemed to suit last time out and if he came out of Tuesday’s race without any issues he must be in with a big chance, he’s been turned around quickly for races previously and he has run positively so it’s not much of a concern today. 7lb claimer Eoin Walsh also takes the ride for the first time, he comes here on the back of two wins from his last two rides. Of the rest of the field, Jarrow has to be respected, he hasn’t won for over a year now but is on his lowest mark to date and also has a 7lb claimer on board in Will Pettis, he will need to improve on recent efforts to factor here but he rates as a good each way chance at 12/1.

[joeblitz]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 26th July There was a deluge in some places but not in all. Sir Ector still has a chance though but Royal Irish Huzzar may well be listed class. So on to today.... 6.15 Wexford Jack The Hat 9/2 Sporting Bet This is simple. Jack The Hat won well the other day, is in great form and won this last year. He must have the ground like the road though. As we speak it is fast in Wexford and I expect him to go in again. Drumlister is the danger. 10 Points win Jack The Hat 9/2 Sporting Bet 4.20 Ascot Sennockian Star Evs Boylesports A typical Johnston improver on the upgrade and winner of 3 races this season. With the stable on fire and with its good record here I cannot see this one being beaten. 10 Points win Sennockian Star Evs Boylesports 7.30 York Albasharah 10/11 Paddy Power With the stable flying now Albasharah who disappointed over 12f at Haydock can go in now over her preferred trip of 10f and will also appreciate the drop in grade. Lady Nouf has claims but I think Albasharah is far better than this grade and don't see any danger to her today. 10 Points win Albasharah 10/11 Paddy Power 8.15 Down Royal Minister Of Mayham 2/1 Paddy Power Although still a maiden Minister Of Mayham holds the strongest of claims here on his second to O' Brien's Great Explorer in a handicap over 10f at Leopardstown a week ago. The stable have won this race 3 out of the last 5 years and remains in good form. They are the reasons he should be backed and win here. 10 Points win Minister Of Mayhem 2/1 Paddy Power Good Luck!

[The Saint]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 26th July 345 Ascot - 340/1 Sweetnessandlight....?! Can't win surely but I've seen many, many worse at this price..... 4th to Dank a few runs back??! Or not..... :$

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 26th July 6.00 York - 3pts win Nurpur @ 7/2 (Bet365) The Godolphin-owned favourite looks short here considering his best form has come on the all-weather and is worth taking on with the in-form David O'Meara charge who has a very capable apprentice on board in David Bergin. The horse hasn't been out of the first two in his last five starts and has won two of those in the hood applied today. Was stepped back up to a mile from 6f last time when getting up late at Haydock and that reads well as he comfortably did best of those held up. Did well to win ultimately and essentially only 3lbs higher today with Bergin's claim, ought to take the beating. Had been staying on over an insufficient 6f and regularly off steady gallops and although this may not be run at a rapid pace, the lengthy straight will help him should he be held up as usual and he looks rock solid to go very close indeed. 7.10 Newmarket - 2pts win On My Own @ 7/1 (Hills) John Hills' runners are flying at the moment with four winners and three places from his last 11 runners and this one has conditions to suit this evening. Shaped well in a good Kempton maiden on his seasonal return, staying on into midfield, and wasn't far behind the reopposing Sir Mike in a Lingfield handicap next time. The sharp track, slowish gallop and his wide position all were against him that day but kept on for 4th and was too keen over 1m2f last time here. The drop back to a stiff mile will prove ideal for him I feel and the form of last time reads well. The winner is now rated 16lbs higher and the runner-up won next time off the same mark so my selection dropped 2lbs, back in trip and facing more exposed rivals really should go close. Looks like a testing mile will be right up his street, a good gallop would help, but with the yard in fine nick, the race not being anything special, and decent odds, make him a worthwhile bet this evening.

[joeblitz]

Re: Flat Racing Friday 26th July Another disaster takes the profit down to +85.09. O' Brien is just not firing at the moment but I won't moan because it will all turn around again next week!