Kithanga's search for value

[Kithanga]

Hope you enjoy the new thread :unsure All bets are win only unless stated otherwise. Starting bank is 500 points and the prices stated will be those I've taken, not what's available at the time of posting so BOG won't apply either. Playing at Beverley today with three on a difficult card. 2.30 A low class race with only a few in form and the main contenders are at the head of the market. Outside those there's just a chance that See Vermont can continue to improve. He showed nothing on a softer surface last season and has performed better on faster ground on his last two starts so he may well be better suited by today's surface. Only a small amount of improvement would be needed to beat these so he looked a decent bet at 17-2 (12 points) 4.30 Plenty of previous course winners in opposition but I've sided with Relight My Fire at 11-4 (28 points) to continue his improvement from Ayr. Like the selection in the first he appears to have improved for a faster surface. Added to that he's also improved for an extra furlong this year and needs only to reproduce the form of his Ayr win or previous Beverley 2nd to go very close here. 5.35 I missed all the fancy prices about John Coffey early doors so can't have that one at the current prices despite him having a solid chance of breaking his maiden. Therefore I'm taking a chance that the improved run from Niceonemyson at this course last time was no fluke. Given his previous close 2nd at Redcar was also an improvement on what he did last year and that he's bred to be ideally suited by the 5f he had on those occasions and today he's the bet given he's drifted from early favourite to the 5-1 (16 points) that was on offer.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value At Beverley on Tuesday See Vermont went a close 3rd but didn't seem to be putting it all in to me so I'll be a little cautious of that one If I come across him again. Relight My Fire confirmed he's on the up with a comfortable win at 9-4 and Niceonemyson scraped home by a couple of necks in the last. Sandown last night was a no bet meeting as I couldn't find anything that stood out on a very difficult card. I'm hoping for better racing and hopefully a few bets at Pontefract tomorrow night. Results Update Bets: 3 Wins: 2 Stake: 56 Return: 201 Profit/Loss: +145

[Elchubb]

Nice start Kithanga, good luck with this! :ok

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value I’m betting at Pontefract this evening. It’s a decent looking card with a couple of very solid looking favourites in the first two races. I’m swerving the very trappy looking sprint at 7.35 and starting off in the 8.05, a mile race for 3yo’s. I think Ready has scope for further improvement at this trip as he finished well when just landing a similar race at Haydock recently. Stepping back half a furlong at Beverley wasn’t ideal last time on a course that wouldn’t have suited his racing style. The main danger appears to come from the solid looking favourite Henry The Aviator who’s chance is fully reflected in his price. So, Ready for me and I’ve backed him at 8-1 (12 points). My final wager goes in the last, a race where there’s plenty in with a shout. At the prices I like the look of dual course winner Who’s Shirl who’s best performances have coincided with 6f on fast ground on an uphill track. She hasn’t had those conditions much in the last two seasons so has dropped a fair way in the weights as a result. I’m willing to forgive her last two below par runs over 7f, particularly her latest when she was drawn out wide with no cover. Paul Mulrennan who rides this course well is an interesting booking for the yard so I’m giving her one more chance under ideal conditions. I’ve backed her as much as permitted at 12-1 last night but most of the money went on at 8-1 (11 points) and I’ll use the lower of the prices for the P&L. Good luck if you’re punting with me.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Drew a blank today. Ready ran a good race but came a little wide into the straight and couldn't stay on as well as the winner. Who's Shirl confirmed she's probably on the downgrade, just staying on at one pace and never in it. Bets: 5 Wins: 2 Strike Rate: 40% Stake: 79 Return: 201 Profit / Loss: 122 If there's any questions or comments let me know. Happy to supply other info like minimum price, current price, etc if folk would find it useful. Onto Newmarket tomorrow and hopefully back in the winners enclosure

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value An interesting card at Newmarket today. 1.50 Kitten On The Run may appreciate the likely strong pace and the drop back to 1m in the opener and looks worth a punt at 5-1 (16 points). He shaped well on fast ground over 10f, particularly in a decent handicap first time up but was outclassed in a more steadily run Group 3 last time out. In the 3.40 the favourite Midnight Flower has a decent chance despite stepping up in class as she quickened nicely when winning over CD last time out. Her price is about right though. I prefer Links Drive Lady, who's been progressive over this trip, over I'm So Glad who may appreciate further. However, with a strong pace looking assured I've taken a chance that Richard Hannon's filly Tassel at 20-1 (5 points) can improve on her already decent form. Not far behind Links Drive Lady two outings ago at Goodwood when held up well off the pace she had a tough task last time out in a decent conditions race over this track, fading having set a strong pace. Having been highly tried on occasions at 2, I feel she's still unexposed over 6f on fast ground in handicaps and with winning form at 5f last year is not short of pace. Goldream looks a solid favourite in the 4.50 but too short to interest me at 9-4 so I'll leave that one alone.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Oh my, what a deeply frustrating day. Not only did the favourite confirm previous form in the 3.40 but I toyed with backing both the final two winners on the card. Believe it or not, I avoided Cincinnati Kit as she looked too big a price! I assumed I'd got it wrong which was also my thought process on Tassel when I saw she was 20-1. I went with one and not the other. Why I was inconsistent I've no idea but luck ensured I suffered for my lack of discipline. With Tha'ir I needed 4-1 or better and stood by and watched, waiting for it to drift back out, while all the 5-1, 9-2 and 4-1 got mopped up early doors. I know they're only mistakes with hindsight and after the result is known but I think I was far too cautious. Why, I don't know. Never mind, you live & learn. Bets: 7 Wins: 2 Strike Rate: 27% Stake: 100 Return: 201 Profit / Loss: 101 ROI: 100%

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Two bets so far today at Redcar and there may be more later as I've yet to finish the last two races. Both have shortened since I backed them but are still, at the time of posting, available at what I consider to be value prices. 2.40 A low grade race which won't take much winning but My New Angel at 5-1 (16 points) seems to have improved on her last two starts having been switched to Jason Ward and it may be that the new yard have found the key to her. There appears to be plenty of pace in the race which should suit and avoid a repetition of her close defeat last time when doing well to come from a long way back. 4.10 An interesting sprint handicap in which there may not be too much pace early, putting me off the favourite Head Space who'll have no choice but to take a pull and drop in from a wide draw in stall 1 as he's normally held up. Of those usually ridden close to the pace Orbit The Moon, who's probably better over 7f appeals most. However, I've taken a chance on Rich Again at 8-1 (12 points) from stall 7. He finished just behind the favourite at Haydock after a lengthy break two starts back and then got too far behind at Ayr last time. Only 4yo, he has the scope to improve as a sprinter and although he's normally held up I'm hopeful he'll find it easier to sit reasonably close from his middle draw than those drawn wide. I'll post again later if I'm backing in the final two races.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value As promised, an update on the final two races and two further selections which, unsurprising given how late I'm backing them, are both trading at the prices I've taken. 5.10 Yorksters Prince may well be able to last longer than his latest run now he's back a furlong in trip. I have him as joint favourite but not by the same margin as the bookies. The other joint favourite in my book is Taro Tywood who kept on strongly up the hill at Bath last time to land a similar race carrying a similar weight. That race was run in a slowish time so it may be that she was flattered. However, she's only 4yo and it was only her third start of the campaign. Given she seemed to improve when stepped up to today's trip on the Polytrack last year and the ground at Bath was the firmest she's encountered on turf I was happy enough to back her at 11-2 (15 points). 5.40 A very poor and trappy event in which I like the chance of a few including the favourite who's discounted given the short price. Sally Friday put up her best race over CD when winning but then didn't last home at the same venue next time out. She didn't hold her form long last season so she may have gone over the top and has a very inexperienced pilot on board. Petella should also go well with the excellent Connor Beasley booked but this trip is a minimum for her even on her favoured fast surface and she's exactly on the price I'd like at 11-2. The one I've backed though is the bottom one, Dean Iarracht who won over CD last season off 5lb higher. That was the middle one of three good runs, 2nd, Won & 2nd all on good to firm or firm ground. He didn't get that ground again last season and showed up better on his 2nd start back after a break in firm ground at Beverley last time when left poorly placed. I'm expecting better this time and have chanced him at 16-1 (7 points)

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value The first week's search for value ends with a couple of placed efforts but no wins. P&L now looking a little more reasonable than day 1 though. Bets: 11 Wins: 2 Strike Rate: 18% Stake: 150 Return: 201 Profit / Loss: +51 ROI: +33%

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value It’s been very busy at work so tonight’s Doncaster meeting is my first attempt of the week and I got a good hour or so to investigate the chances last night. I’m typing this in my lunch break so it’s only a quick update. The bookies look to have the first couple of races priced about right although it’ll be interesting to see if China Creek can run better than his 12-1 quote on his racecourse debut in the first. In the 6.45 you’ll not get anywhere near the 12-1 (20p rule 4) that I secured early doors for Clubland as he’s a best priced 9-2 now. That’s still marginally above the 4-1 I had him priced at as I believe he can be excused a poor run over 7f last time. Back at 6f and well handicapped, I’m hopeful of a decent show and had a decent sized (10 point) wager at the very generous odds. As a guide for anyone following, I’d want at least 5-1 to allow sufficient safety margin. I fancy Royal Guinevere in the next but not below 4-1 (she’s 3-1 at best which is spot on my price for her). I have a sneaking concern Mitchell may well run a better race for the likely stronger pace but there’s plenty of doubts. He’s fractionally over priced at 12’s but I’m not totally convinced. Watch him go and scoot up now! I’m giving a chance to Hidden Belief in the 7.50 to confirm that it was the fitting of the hood that sparked the improved performance last time. She’s got plenty of entries and mark of 75 looks lenient based on that 7 length defeat of Martial Art. Better still she’s on the drift and at 11-2 is adequately priced for a wager (15 points). There are possibilities in the final two races but I want to check the going after the first race and will post later if I’m backing anything.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Update as promised and I've had one more bet to round off the evening in the 8.25. This race is more about potential than proven ability and Yul Finegold, Gioia Di Vita and Ikhtisas are the three with the most improvement to come. It's close between them too and is one of those races were I'd have been on Gioia Di Vita had the early 6-1 still been available. However, at this late stage in the betting Yul Finegold is the one that stands out and I've backed him at 11-2 (15 points) which is still available. This colt is well regarded and expected to improve for the switch to a more galloping track having run well from off the pace at Windsor after a 5 week break last time. The drop back in trip may not inconvenience him as much as his rivals given he showed decent form at 1m on a couple of occasions, including in handicap company. Of the others Typhon is one I really dislike given the way he carried his head last time. I considered Laser Blazer (poor run latest), Keep It Cool (may get run of race but 9yo and may lack pace now at this trip) and Elizabeth Coffee (in form but inconsistent and exposed as modest) in the last but there's not a lot between them at the prices so I've decided to give it a miss.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value A mixed evening. A cracking start in some respects with Clubland comfortably taking the 6.45. The extra stake was wiped out by the rule 4 and with the price collapsing due to Hugh Taylor tipping it there was little chance to 'top up' once I'd spotted the non runner. There was plenty of 5-1 available on the exchanges so if you've been following I hope you got some of that. Royal Guinevere eased home in the next (the front two did well) and eased to about as close to 4-1 as is possible at one point before shortening again. Unfortunately, I missed any 4-1 that did materialise so that one went unbacked. I hope someone out there did better and got on that winner. At least Mitchell confirmed he's not the horse he appeared last season since a switch of yards. I have to say I was disappointed with Hidden Belief as she looked very once paced despite support. The winner, Shesastar, was my idea of the worst value in the race so I couldn't have got that one more wrong. That theme continued in the next when I missed the early 6-1 on the eventual 2nd, took the 11-2 on the selection and then sat back and watched the other one I was interested in drift out to a very backable 6-1 and win (without any of my cash on him). It wasn't a race I wanted to double up on though as there were a lot of unknowns. I have to remember that although this time I was on the wrong one, the first day of this thread saw my idea of the winnner well beaten and the one I backed win in a close finish. So, it does even out in the end. Despite having picked three in the last, one of the others came and won it confirming the decision to leave well alone was correct. Updated P&L Bets: 14 Wins: 3 Strike Rate: 21% Stake: 190 Return: 307 Profit/Loss: +117 ROI: +61%

[Kithanga]

Just the one bet so far at York having done the first four races. In the 2.20 I like the look of Smarty Socks chance but there's no margin in his price. Of the others I think Al Khan may have been overlooked. He's been running well over 6f the last twice and has decent form over 7f too. At 9-1 (10 points) he's a workable price too. Possibly others later but for now im soaking up the riverside sun at Edisford Bridge Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum

[Kithanga]

One final bet from York today in the 4.40 where I'm very surprised to see Teak being offered as high as 9-1. This 6yo still has scope for improvement over 2m after only the two runs this year. 11 points have been invested Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Not too much damage done yesterday. Looking back at the results I'm happy I didn't miss any opportunities. I'm pleased Rocktherunway didn't get up in the 4.40 though. Despite him being overpriced by some way and open to improvement at 2m, I just didn't fancy investing any more on a race where I had a strong conviction that Teak was significantly overpriced and would do the business. Maybe an area for improvement as if I'd been less confident of the selection I'd certainly have backed both. What do you think? Updated P&L Bets: 16 Wins: 3 Strike Rate: 18% Stake: 211 Return: 307 Profit/Loss: +96 ROI: +45% Pontefract today so back later

[robertob]

Re: Kithanga's search for value

Not too much damage done yesterday. Looking back at the results I'm happy I didn't miss any opportunities. I'm pleased Rocktherunway didn't get up in the 4.40 though. Despite him being overpriced by some way and open to improvement at 2m, I just didn't fancy investing any more on a race where I had a strong conviction that Teak was significantly overpriced and would do the business. Maybe an area for improvement as if I'd been less confident of the selection I'd certainly have backed both. What do you think? Updated P&L Bets: 16 Wins: 3 Strike Rate: 18% Stake: 211 Return: 307 Profit/Loss: +96 ROI: +45% Pontefract today so back later

Excellent stats, particularly the ROI is amazing. Hope you can keep it up, all the best for that. :ok In terms of backing two horses in a race: I think it's a very legitimate strategy. I do it myself on a couple of occasions, even though I try to avoid it as much as possible. If I do so then the basis for this has to be that I really think there are two horses in the race which are not only a good bit overpriced, but which have a genuine winning chance in my eyes, leaving value thinking out, and I have no doubts whatsoever about any of the selections. If these things are not in place, I rather miss out on a race rather than backing two horses. Usually I want to have one clear chance in a race. Otherwise If I locating one clear chance in a race, which is overpriced and I feel will be tough to beat, and there is second horse I somehow fancy, but don't feel as strong about, then I would go for the horse that ticks all the right boxes, and would leave the fancy on out. But that is only my personal view on things.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Similar approaches Robertob. On reflection though I did maybe get a bit blinkered by the strength of my fancy for the selection and can probably mark that one down as a lucky escape. Funnily enough, although not the same circumstances, I do have two running for me in a race today. Onto today then and having had a lazy day in the sun yesterday I decided to spend the evening watching some first class darting action with a nice cool beer, knowing that would mean I'd possibly end up backing my second (or worse) choice as the market would be fairly mature by the time I'd priced up. It's not turned out too badly though in practice. I don't like either of the front two (Lincoln & Northern Water) in the maiden but neither do I fancy any of the rest. In the second race Madrasa has an obvious chance at the weights despite all wins and recent decent efforts being on the much flatter Redcar track. However, 9-4 makes no appeal even against this poor bunch. The one that does look worth a small interest is the bottom one Niknad at 20-1 (5 points). She's only 3yo and has shown steady improvement in each of her runs in handicaps this season. Both her last two starts can be ignored (raced wide from poor draw first time, badly bumped and lost chance second time) despite her running creditably. She has a nice low weight here and could be competitive in this. In the 3.30 I've gone with two against the field. This is another of those races where I just don't understand why those at the head of the market are so short. Recently, these races have gone against me, showing that you have to respect the market. However, I'm fairly strong on the chances of Gran Maestro (16.2 after commission on the exchanges, 7 points) who's in good form and particularly Arc Light (missed the 17-2 and got 8-1, 12 points) which is about 9-2 the pair. There's been a lot of rain overnight and this significantly increases the chance of Tim Easterby's gelding who's been running well on ground faster than ideal since back to back wins in May. Back to his last winning mark and drawn near the rail, he's got a sound chance. The Listed race at 4.05 is trappy but I feel Arsaadi is in good form and will be suited by the slightly slower conditions she gets here. There's plenty of pace in the race so I'm hoping Liam Jones doesn't go too mad early from stall 9 to get the lead. I got on her at 7-1 with 12 points The 4.40 is hard, with not much to separate the field and prospects of further rain by that time in the afternoon. The only one I really fancied was My Kingdom but at 4-1 he's about half the odds I'd require to get involved. I want to watch the first couple of races and see what the weather does before deciding on the final two today so will post up again later if there are any more.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value The ground doesn't look too bad, probably a bit dead, so I've gone for one more in the final race of the day. It's a competitive and very tight sprint handicap but I feel that Sir Geoffrey, who's run well here before, goes on any ground and is in decent form has been overlooked in the betting. I've had a nibble on the exchanges at an average of 10.50 after commission (10 points). I had the winner of his last race, Niceonemyson, at Beverley and the selection nearly held him off. Drawn in stall 6 here he's got every chance and I'd rate his true chance to be around the 13-2 mark.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Two winners made it a winning week but on reflection there were opportunities I missed at Pontefract today. Isn't hindsight such a wonderful thing? Updated P&L Stake: 257 Return: 415 Profit/Loss: +158 ROI: +61% Looking forward to Goodwood next week where 1 or two winners is normally enough to make it profitable

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value An absolute belter of a card to kick off what promises to be, win or lose, a fantastic five days of action at Goodwood, a track at which I normally perform quite well. Rain is forecast so I’m leaning towards those with proven form in good or softer conditions. I had to move quickly to secure the price for my first bet in the opener on the card as I suspected it may attract some attention. How right I was as within minutes of striking the bet a certain newspaper tipster with a huge following tipped him up. With softer conditions seeming to suit Clon Brulee ideally he did remarkably well to finish only 3 ½ lengths behind Danchai in the John Smith’s Cup on a faster surface last time out. With a decent draw in stall 8 he seemed a fair bet at 11-1 (5 points each way). I’ll return to the 2.30, 4.15 and 5.25 tomorrow as I need to sleep on those. However, in the 3.05 I know my fate already as I agree with the bookies on the order and prices of the main contenders so no bet there. Having pinched the price before it collapsed in the first, I couldn’t quite manage it in the 3.40 due to only finished looking at that race after 8pm. Of the four I was interested in only two were originally priced above my minimum and that was soon to become one as all the 12-1 and 11-1 quickly disappeared from next to Sir Graham Wade’s name. That left the William Haggas trained Guarantee, who had very decent form in softer conditions last season, as the wager. He’s not hit the same level of form yet this year but ran promisingly last time in conditions faster than ideal off an 8 week break. A quote of 14-1 from one bookmaker was enough to tempt me in with a 7 point bet. The final selection for this evening is one I’m going to leave until tomorrow before striking the bet given the fairly uncompetitive over round of the best prices. It’s in the 4.50 race, a very competitive handicap over 1m. I’m going to take a chance here that Country Western can continue his improvement back under slightly slower conditions than he’s been racing under recently. His best form of last season, although modest, was on his debut in soft ground and he bettered that level on polytrack and good ground when winning both his first two starts this year. He’s maintained a similar level of form on a faster surface since then but is still reasonably well handicapped. He’s a best priced 16-1 with the bookies but up to 24.0 on the exchanges (to very small stakes) so I’ll wait until the morning to let the prices ease a little. Given that there are 20 runners, it’ll be an each way bet that I'll strike. I’ll post again tomorrow with an update on that final selection and news of the other races.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Lunch finished, going checked and one more bet added to finish day 1. Briefly back to the 4.50 where I’ve taken 20-1 on Country Western (2.5 points each way). I’m really hoping Jack’s Revenge doesn’t win this as I was very nearly a supporter given his decent course and soft ground form. He was priced big enough early on to interest me. However, it’s a tricky race and I want to keep stakes to the minimum so I’ve stuck with the one that gives the bigger margin of safety at the prices. A couple of hours after making that decision, Hugh Taylor went and tipped him (Jack’s Revenge) for his Attheraces column. I really not sure if I’ve missed an opportunity here. No, he’s definitely going to hang away his chance or run into trouble in the straight….. isn’t he? I prefer Anticipated to Supplicant in the 2.30 and despite the bookies having them the other way round, the 7-2 best price still isn’t big enough to attract my cash. The maiden at 4.15 was complex enough without the added confusion of softer ground so I’ve had my final bet in the wide open finale. There are at least eight I seriously considered in this so it’s not a race I’m going to empty the betting bank on. However, there’s been a fairly consistent draw bias against those drawn high in sprints at Goodwood over recent years and some of the fancied ones are placed there. Interestingly much of the pace in the race appears to be middle to high so it’s not at all certain that those drawn low will have their customary advantage. In fact, a middle draw has often been the place to be so I was looking for an in form (preferably improving) youngster, drawn middle to high, with a liking for softer ground, with the speed to lay up just behind the likely strong pace but also the stamina to last out. Oh, and overpriced too of course. Rusty Rocket fitted the bill at 25-1. I’ve placed a 2.5 point each way bet on him. Back to work now.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Not very close at all today from those three and I can't even claim to have fancied any of those that won the races I played in. Rusty Rocket was a non runner and is hopefully none the worse for getting trapped under the stalls in the last. Stake: 279 Return: 415 Profit/Loss: +136 ROI: +48% I'll update on tomorrows racing in the morning as I haven't even started looking yet

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value A less appealing card on the whole today but where there are bets they've got much more potential than yesterday. I'm ducking the first as it's not my type of race. The second is though and I can't understand why they've got Testudo out at 14-1 (9 points). He's improved markedly with each outing and finished just behind the much more experienced Havana Beat when stepped up in trip on only his 3rd start. He's unproven on a softer surface but his sire won a Group 1 in soft ground so he's got to be worth chancing as there are much bigger doubts about Secret Number and Elkaayed at this trip on softer ground. I see no obvious reason why Dawn Approach shouldn't win the Sussex Stakes or one of the front two in the Vintage Stakes. The Maiden at 4.15 is typically trappy, as is the fillies handicap at 4.50 where the front four in the betting look to hold solid claims. My final bet of the day goes in the last, a 7f handicap where the favourite Magic City should go well if she handles the ground (inconclusive from sire and dam). At the prices I've plumped for a bet at 14-1 (4 points each way) on Tidentime who ran well here behind Good Authority and Brave Echo on his penultimate start. He again performed well at Ascot last time when a good 2nd to Labienus. However, his best timefigures and only win this year came on dead ground. He had problems last season and slipped down the weights as a result. A draw in stall 16 isn't helpful but I think he's going to be much better than he's shown faced with today's surface.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value That was very disappointing with neither showing a great deal. Updated P&L is as follows Stake: 296 Return: 415 ROI: 40%

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value A very busy day in the office and an early start on Thursday meant no time to study today's card but I've got a few running tomorrow on what promises to be a decent day. Having said that, both days have looked like that so far and I've not even been close to a place. In the first Masterstroke wins if he's fully wound up, which he isn't sure to be given that he has much bigger targets than this later in the year. I'm struggling to find anything else to latch on to though as Aiken is also on his seasonal return, Forgotten Voice clocked a slow time when winning a handicap from Sheikhzayedroad and the others aren't the most consistent. I feel Montridge is equally strong in the second but of course that's reflected in his price. In the 3.05 I'm taking the view that Brendan Brackan's recent wide margin win doesn't flatter him and that he may in fact be as well in as it looks. I've backed him at 12-1 (4 points each way) to confirm that he's Group class and land back to back valuable handicaps. I've gone for two in the 3.40 at around 11-2 the pair. They are Moviesta at 9-1 (10 points) and Ladies Are Forever at 20-1 (5 points). Moviesta is chosen as he's been on the upgrade all year and may not have finished that improvement yet and LAF is chosen on account of the improved showing in first time blinkers on her latest start. Of the front two, I don't like Tickled Pink due to the sharp track and draw in stall 1 and I don't like Swiss Spirit due to his tendency to race freely. It's going to take a good ride to settle him in from stall 17. Hats off to anyone who confidently picks the winner of the nursery, you're a miles better judge than me! I'm going for my final bet in the Group 3 at 4.50 where I'm fairly confident that Winning Express can continue her improvement and land a 28 point wager at 11-4. I like Goodwood Mirage in the last along with Statutory, Retirement Plan and Northern Meeting. They're the front four in the betting and although I think GM has a big edge the draw in stall 15 won't be easy to overcome.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Almost got two winners today but have to settle for just the one, which is a shame as that means I'll have to snare one more on a difficult card tomorrow to guarantee a profitable meeting. Stake: 347 Return: 515 Profit/Loss: +168 ROI: 48% Back tomorrow

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Four races for me to bet in today and one winner will be enough to put me well ahead on the five day meeting. 2.05 Enrol, El Viento, Above Standard, Links Drive Lady and Picture Dealer came out top for me with the last named a strong favourite despite being up in class and unproven over this unique course. She wasn't a bad price either (best 8-1, plenty of 7-1) and a 6 point each way bet was struck at average odds of 15-2. Given Bet365 were offering 5 places and were also top priced at 14-1 about LDL I took that as well as this previous course winner is in good shape and should go close (4 points each way). 2.40 Plenty of improvers and wide open 3.10 I want to take on Sky Lantern over this trip especially after the overnight rain. Sajjhaa may well need this after a break, a comment which equally applies to Hot Snap. Therefore I was between the potential of Integral and the proven Group 1 form of Just The Judge. I think the step up in trip and good ground will help the latter. With her being the more proven and longer priced of the two, I've gone with 12 points at 8-1. 3.50 Not a lot of pace in this years renewal and that made it hard for me to fasten onto one. York Glory, Tropics, Rex Imperator, Humidor, Face The Problem, Louis The Pious, Ninjago, Burwaaz, Heaven's Guest and Racy were all considered but none stood out at the prices. 4.25 Lots of unknowns and with Richard Hughes choosing to ride the unraced market leader War Spirit over one of the main form horses (After The Goldrush). One to watch 5.00 A very chancy bet in this at big odds. Mezel may go well but could need even further than 7f in time. Bureau has a chance too but a little less scope at 7f having only narrowly beaten another bred for longer distances last time over that trip. Best was Art Official but he's plenty short enough due to the Hannon/Hughes factor so I've gone with Intermath at 33-1 (3 points) to confirm the promise of his good winning debut over 6f at Salisbury. I backed him at the same course when he unseated next time and then he went on to be outclassed in the July Stakes last time. Forgive those two races (which is easy enough to do) and he's a very good price. If Bureau, who also failed when stepped up in class (only a listed race) on her 2nd time up before winning a weak 5 runner maiden, deserves to be 7-1 at best then this fellow should be much shorter too. 5.35 Another chancy one but another price that I can't quite believe. Holley Shiftwell is a deserving favourite after beating Lexington Place last time in a 3 runner race. However both had their form ratings increased by about 5lbs for that. Not sure why given the only other runner was well below form. There's also plenty of more stoutly bred types in this and I thought Vincentti was worth a chance after a 7 week break. He's entered in the flying five at the Curragh in a few weeks and that suggests he's very well regarded. I've backed him at 20-1 with 6 points

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Not a great Goodwood this year, but not too disastrous either. A bit of misfortune today with Picture Dealer fluffing the start and doing well to get as close as he did and Just The Judge losing part of her foot along with her shoe during my next race. Lets hope she's going to be ok. Nothing doing in the last despite some support from 20's into 12's. Stake: 385 Return: 515 Profit/Loss: +130 ROI: +33%

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value It's nice to get back to normal racing today at Chester after a hectic week of big field races. There's a couple of value plays I've made. 3.05 Hitchens at 8-1 (11 points) carries my money as he's a solid performer in this grade and has good course form. I'm hoping Ballista goes off too fast with other pace challengers in the race as I think he may be a bit better over 5f than 6f. 4.15 Boogangoo at 5-1 (16 point) may be able to take advantage of what looks a lenient mark in a race that's likely to be strongly run. I also liked the favourite after his easy win in a low grade maiden at 4-11 but the selection is much the better priced from a long term perspective.