Kithanga's search for value

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value The misunderstanding I had with someone on another thread has been sorted now. I was naffed off with that this morning and then came on here to see what people had replied to my question about the big race on Sunday. Nothing, as usual. It'd be really good to have generated some feedback, discussion, anything really but there's nothing. Hence my comment this morning. I did save half an hour of typing up selections though so not all was lost. There'll be no further updates to the thread.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Kithanga's search for value I enjoy reading your thread mate as I respect your opinion. If you're looking for discussion on races then this place is pretty dead these days but I'll happily join the debate from now on in races I've bet on, 5f-10f class 2-5 handicaps. You might think your efforts are going unappreciated, but I always read this thread and I'm sure plenty of others do as well.

[Smarty72]

Keep up the thread it is much appreciated. I read all these threads daily and love the information you all provide. Sent from my GT-I9100 using PL Forum

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Don't worry mate, keep going. At the end of the day I use my thread to keep a record, for people to look at should they wish etc (only 42 posts out of 720 aren't from me!). I naturally expect more conversation in the main forum (although it's not been as lively as it has in the past of late). I'm sure a lot of people are interested but when you consider how many selections, threads, posts etc are new each day on here, not everything can be responded to - when I've looked at the cards, made selections and posted them I'm pretty sick of my own thoughts :p. It's nothing personal and it's not to say it's not interesting, useful or valued :ok

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's search for value Thanks for the comments guys. I’m glad you found it useful. I won’t be continuing in the same way though, if at all. As I’m sure you appreciate, it’s difficult to find enough time to fit in the form study between work and family commitments. With the selections having to go on before racing it adds additional time pressure and I’ve found myself rushing to complete a card just so I can post up on here which is madness given the lack of response. What I may do is turn it into a more reflective post as I can type that up when I have spare time (like now) but only if that would be useful and interesting to people? I know it’s considered after timing to some but it will make me spend more time looking back at my decisions, which is something I probably neglect. That way the thread will add some value to me even if only a handful of others find it useful. I’ve done this below for the first three races at yesterday’s meeting at Goodwood. Let me know what you think. I won’t be offended if you say it’s of no value as I’d rather you point that out now and not a few weeks down the line! Goodwood 3^rd August 2.20 The once raced Wizara was a couple of pounds clear on ratings and that meant she’d probably start favourite having looked as though it was a lack of race fitness that caused her to fade in a race run in a good time. Also once raced was Martian who’d shown plenty of promise when finishing well in a Doncaster maiden and looked sure to improve. He’d already been gelded though so was probably not considered to be above average. The other one I considered was Nickels and Dimes who was well ahead of these on last season’s runs on a softer surface but who’d disappointed this year over 12f appearing not to stay (firm) and again back at 8f when one paced (good). The 10f of this race may therefore be ideal but with good to firm ground forecast I considered it unlikely that she’d be improving on what she’d achieved to date. In the end it was difficult to look beyond the front two who I priced at 11-4 joint for a bet. I fully expected Martian to be 2^nd favourite and the one that I’d be backing but in the morning market it was the other way around at 7-4 and 9-4. With both being under the target price no business was done. I checked prices just before the off to find Wizara at 11-4 and stepped in for a 28 point bet at that price only to see her show no improvement and struggle to find a change of gear, finishing in midfield. Martian battled on well and showed improvement to win from Nickels and Dimes who also probably improved a little for racing at 10f. 2.55 This race revolved around top rated Tinga who’d gone close in a 7f Maiden and run respectably in better company too. By Galileo and with stamina on the dams side she looked as though this step up to 1m might bring about further improvement. Her main market rival was likely to be Tea In Transvaal who was a little more speedily bred being by 2yo 7f winner Teofilo and a dam who was a 2yo 5.5f winner. That one had improved when stepped back from 7f to 6f on her second start and despite looking as though a step back up to 7f would bring about more improvement I was concerned that 1m may be slightly too far. Or, would this sharp track mean that she’d have too much speed for them? I wasn’t sure but at 7-4 and 9-4 (about 4-7 the pair) I was certain that neither was value. Of the others, the once raced pair Arabian Comet and Uchenna looked to have sufficient scope to get involved and the newcomer Criteria from a powerful yard also looked the part on paper. I don’t back unraced ones as I’m not privy to inside information so that just left the two to concentrate on. The main question was whether they had sufficient scope to improve enough to trouble the front pair given they were rated about 2 stone inferior to the market leaders. As Arabian Comet had started at 3-1 on her debut I assumed that more had been expected of her. Add to that the mediocre subsequent performances from those that finished around her and she was discounted. That left Uchenna who started at 50-1 and wasn’t given a hard time on her debut. By Fastnet Rock she was slightly speedier bred than some of these but was clearly expected to get 1m based on an entry in the Fillies’ Mile. She had scope and I priced her up at around 8-1 for a bet. She was supported in the morning market though from 15-2 into around 11-2 which meant I let her run. This was a case of the market moves being correct (which they often are in these maiden races) as Tea In Transvaal almost clung on to her lead but was just headed by the stronger travelling and finishing Uchenna. Tinga was disappointing, not improving for the step up in trip. I find it difficult to find value bets in these type of races as quite often a lack of market support leads to a disappointing run and, as in the case of Uchenna, strong support often precedes an improved performance. Maybe, once I’ve identified the likely improveres I need to follow the money a little more often in this type of race? That’s something for me to consider I think. 3.30 The were two that looked as though they had scope to improve in this and both were at the head of the market. The step up to 7f looked sure to suit Wahaab who in addition to being very well bred had also won at this unique track. He was thought good enough to tackle to Coventry stakes on only his second start and showed plenty of pace there although he was ultimately outclassed. He’d been off the track (over two months) since then and I was concerned that there may have been a problem, especially given his yard (Hannon) being one that tends to run them quite frequently when they’re right. He was rated a couple of pounds off the top and I felt there was some doubts. His main rival was Lyn Valley who looked sure to relish this step back up in trip to 7f and had run well at the track before. The doubt here was that he actually looked as though a sharp 7f may not quite be enough of a test (by Shamardal and a dam that stayed 10f). He was top rated though and it did look (based on the ratings of previous winners) that this was a sub-standard renewal so any improvement (and he would surely find some upped in trip) would probably be enough for him to go close. I priced Wahaab at 9-4 with Lyn Valley at 5-2 and given the latter was available at 11-4 in the morning that was the one I backed to 28 points. In the race Wahaab gave himself no chance of getting home by going off too strongly on the way to post and in the race itself. That should have taken some of the fizz out of him and he may go better next time, although it’s worth noting that he’s gone off strongly before and will probably need to learn to settle before he’s going to improve. Maybe that’s why he’s been off for a while? Maybe a return to 6f would be the answer? Anyhow, Lyn Valley travelled well and stayed on strongly to just edge it from Rosso Corsa who seemed to confirm his apparent improvement in the Vintage Stakes (also at this track). I’d want to see the winner at a stiffer track next time or even at 1m whereas the runner up may just be opposable away from this venue if a short price next time. Any use or a waste of time?

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Kithanga's search for value I enjoy reading anyones thoughts on a race I've studied (none of the above, but I like the idea and it gives me something to think about).

[egg]

Re: Kithanga's search for value I Backed both Wizara and Uchenna. My reasoning was that both could be open to significant improvement form their first runs. I should of however left Wizara alone because the Godolphin Goodwood stats(5 year) have been pretty poor for 3yo (9-62). Uchenna I noted on its debut run and had it my tracker. I never really looked at The Lyn Valley race in any great detail but did think Rosso Corsa might bounce back. Off to work now so sorry for short reply.