Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July

[Kithanga]

Chester Sat 13^th July I’m off to Chester races tomorrow and see the races as follows. Price forecasts are to a 100% book. Should be interesting to see how the Racing Post and the bookies price them up later. As usual, I’ll consider backing any that are above the guide prices that give me a decent margin of error. That means I can’t say exactly which ones I’ll be on yet of course. 2.15 Urban Dreamer (7-2) has been consistent and should go well having had plenty of experience, as should Weisse Socken (11-4) who wasn’t seen at her best racing wide last time. She has more scope for improvement though having had just the three starts. Extreme Supreme (11-2) may be best of the lighter raced bunch after being thrown in the deep end on his racecourse debut. 2.50 Red Explorer (11-4) is unexposed and looks on the upgrade after showing improved form to take a similar race last time out. He looks to have plenty of scope and should go on improving. Whatever he does tomorrow I think he’ll be even better over further in time. Of the dangers Joey’s Destiny (7-2) looked like he’d returned to form last time out, is more speedily bred and also has a fair degree of ability. Trinityelitedotcom (5-1) ran better in a slowly run event at Bath last time. He seems to travel well in his races and also has scope for better. Slowish time figures achieved on slow ground is a doubt though. 3.25 Majestic Myles (9-4) will probably be a popular choice to win this event for the third time having shown signs of a return to his best last time after a poor previous run. Back down in class on a course where he has a 100% strike rate, he looks to hold a favourites chance. He won’t have it all his own way though as Correspondent (4-1) is an improving 3yo who, if he copes with the faster ground could go close on a track he won at last time. Obviously well regarded (he ran in the 2000 Guineas) he doesn’t yet have the form in the book (or the timefigures) but does have plenty of scope. Another that is yet to prove she’s good enough but who has scope to improve is Ladyship (9-2) who’s yet to strike form this year. Quietly progressive last season, this filly is in good hands and looks as though she may, like her dam, improve with age and the trip is within her scope. 4.00 A very tight race with most of the top weights coming back from poor runs or breaks and I may just sit this one out. However, the winner may just come from Intransigent (5-1), Sir Maximilian (9-2), Summerinthecity (11-2) and possibly Al’s Memory (12-1). There’s not much between the first and third named based on their run here in May. Intransigent has gone on from that the better of the two but is undoubtedly better on the all-weather. Sir Maximilian is out to prove that he can perform as well over 6f as 5f, which I’m sure he can. The more significant doubt is the likely going as he put in probably his worst run of the season in good to firm ground at Nottingham on his penultimate start. Al’s Memory is only small and therefore may get bullied about a bit from stall 1. However, if they do go off much to fast he’s capable of staying on strongly from off the pace given his winning form at 7f. Summerinthecity bouncing back to form wouldn't be the biggest shock given his liking for the track and his yard. 4.30 It doesn’t get any easier in this race as I can see any bar Marwan Koukash’s representative (doubt he’ll stay) winning. Alta Lilea (7-2) has the class and should improve for the trip but is inconsistent. Deira Phantom (7-2) remains unexposed at staying trips and back on a faster surface (by Cape Cross) has a good chance. Good Evans (7-2) owes me nothing having battled well to land a 9-1 wager at a starting price of 4-1 last Friday at Sandown. That was a hard race though as they went hard from the front that day and I wonder how much that’s taken out of him. Snowy Dawn (7-2) has bags of stamina on the dam’s side but is still a maiden. He should also improve for the step up in trip and with the yard in good form may spring a surprise as I expect him to be a little ignored in the betting. 5.10 The pace is likely to be strong here with any number of prominently ridden types. Livia’s Dream (9-2) has the speed to cope with 10f but also the stamina to last 12f and I think that’ll give her an edge in this. Stellar Express (11-2) is likely to be shorter I think based on his last two decent runs here. He is unexposed at the trip and may be able to use his 8f pace to advantage. He was beaten only ½ length by Dolphin Rock (7-1) last time but that one hasn’t run since (7 weeks ago) and the race that day seemed to benefit those ridden from the front (slow time figures). Of the others King Of Paradise (15-2) is up in class and needs to settle better than he did previously. It’ll be interesting to see if Jason Hart tucks him in this time from stall 6 with so many other front runners in opposition. If he does, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t travel better behind the strong pace and improve again at a trip he’s unexposed at. If he goes off in the lead he’ll have no chance imo. 5.45 By far the strongest form choice of the day runs in the last and I fully expect Jeremy Noseda’s colt Excuse To Linger (9-4) not to hang about. He looked like he wasn’t enjoying Brighton’s unique track last time and back on a flatter surface should be able to continue his progression. Dangers are Queen Aggie (4-1) who was taken out of the 2.50 race and should be able to use her speed at 6f to good effect here and Black Rider (5-1) who travelled nicely when winning by a short margin at Newcastle last time. He’s sometimes slowly away though which won’t help round here and up in class too so needs to improve again. K

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July Ascot Summer Mile Stakes In summary, I feel it is worth taking the favourite on here. He is the deserved favourite, but in my opinion should be 3/1 or 7/2, not 9/4. Mull Of Kinlough has turned into a gritty, powerful horse the past year or so and has the fantastic William Buick on board. Trade Storm has a much better draw tomorrow in Stall 6, and Jamie Spencer should be able to switch the horse off and make a late charge. This should be a cracking contest, and let's hope we have the winner in our midst. Mull Of Kinlough - 2 Points WIN @ 8/1 >Paddy Power Trade Storm - 1 Point WIN @ 7/1 >William Hill Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-summer-mile-stakes-mull-of-kinlough-is-a-battle-hardened-performer-and-can-give-it-a-good-shot-20130712

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July John Smith's Cup at York In summary, Validus looks overpriced considering his latest eye-catching run. Paul Mulrennan takes the ride, and he is a jockey that has blossomed this season. Luca Cumani's horses are thriving at the moment, and he had a winner at Ascot only a while ago today. Niceofyoutotellme looks an improving horse, and the handicapper was not able to stop him last time out. He looks a very attractive price at around the 9/1 mark with 888sport and with 4 places on offer. Validus - 1 Point each-way @ 16/1 >Betfred. Niceofyoutotellme - 1 Point each-way @ 9/1 >888sport. Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/john-smith-s-cup-betting-validus-has-a-race-of-this-calibre-in-him-after-an-eye-catching-run-at-newcastle--20130712

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July Darley July Cup In summary, I feel the race revolves around the front 3 in the market. Shea Shea is bound to go well, but at the prices Lethal Force looks the horse to beat on the formbook. In my opinion, he should be favourite, so the 4/1 on offer with >Bet365 is very tempting. Society Rock is the big danger in my opinion. If he can get away on terms and if Fallon gets him relaxed, nothing should be finishing off the race quicker, along with Sole Power. Great race in prospect and I hope ye enjoy it. Lethal Force - 3 Points WIN @ 4/1 >Bet365 Society Rock - 1 Point WIN @ 5/1 Coral Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/darley-july-cup-betting-the-clive-cox-runner-has-too-much-lethal-force-for-his-opponents-in-this-cracking-group-1-20130712

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July Superlative Stakes In summary, I feel that that the Mark Johnston yard are in superb form of late. Universal and Maputo were very impressive winners at Newmarket already this week, and he has a great knack of improving horses. The value of the race lies with Vigor, who is no 14/1 shot in my eyes. He won by 6 lengths last time out, drawing away with utter ease and could be anything. We have a lovely little 2 year old race to look forward to tomorrow, and it should be a great spectacle. Enjoy! Somewhat - 2 Points WIN @ 6/1 Stan James Vigor - 1 Point WIN @ 14/1 >Bet365 Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/newmarket-superlative-stakes-betting-somewhat-to-continue-mark-johnston-s-great-run-of-recent-form-20130712

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July Ascot Race 1 - 13:55 A horse i have pretty much followed from day one and been waiting and watching for his reappearance, the 4yr old gelding has been unlucky a few times and should have more wins on his CV but sometimes the breaks fall for some but not for others. He had a few entries for Royal Ascot but never showed up, he's not been seen for 58 days coming home a fast finishing 2nd last time out at York under Jim Crowley, they hit more traffic that day than they would have on the M25 ''in rush hour'' - today jockey James Doyle gets the leg up for the first time and could be tailor made for him, yipp he's never ran at Ascot but at the showing price they are worth an E/W bet, he always needs cover and if the splits come at the right time he's a MUST to finish in the place money. With 20 heading for post its a tough looking sprint but sticking with him could pay in making a nice start to your day. 13:55 Ascot GOLDREAM E/w Bet.

[smith17]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July 2.05 Newmarket: Muharrib, 7/1 >Betvictor, win Muharrib ran ok lto in his seasonal reappearance. He finished third of eight but he should come on a lot for that run and I expect him to go a lot closer today. He finished last season winning a decent class 4 handicap. He finished 2L ahead of Indignant, who won off a mark of 90 here yesterday. Ground and trip will suit. Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a good record at this track and is in good form. Mickael Barzalona is in the saddle. 2.40 Newmarket: Outstrip, 10/3 >Betvictor, win Outstrip won on debut lto over c&d. He finished 1½L ahead of stablemate True Story who won impressively nto. He showed a bit of greeness that day and should come on a bit for the experience. Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has his 2yos in cracking form and Mikael Barzalona, who was on board lto, is in the saddle. 3.15 Newmarket: Redvers, 14/1 >Bet365, e/w Redvers has been in cracking form recently. He finished seventh in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot lto despite not having the clearest of runs and he would have been closer with a bit more luck. He runs from the same mark today and with better luck he could go very close today. Trainer Ed Vaughn is in decent form and has just two runners today, both in this race. Neil Callan is a good booking in the saddle. 3.50 Newmarket: Gale Force Ten, 6/1 >Betfred, win Gale Force Ten won the Jersey Stakes lto. He drops in trip for this but it shouldn't be a problem. The ground is ideal and with a six pound age allowance he should be involved in the finish. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has won this race three times in the past, two of them won the Jersey Stakes lto before winning this, while the other also won at RA prior to taking this. Ryan Moore is a big plus in the saddle. 5.35 Newmarket: Cat O'Mountain, 10/1 Stan James, win Cat O'Mountain ran quite well lto in his first start of the season. He finished fourth of six in what turned out to be a hot race. The winner won what looked like a very competitive handicap here two days by 6L. Third won nto while fifth, who was 2¼L behind the selection, won a group 3 race here two days ago. Even sixth place who was tailed off was beaten just a neck nto. He should come on a lot for that run and with his stable in good form a big run is expected. Mickael Barzalona, who has won on this horse from his only ride on him, is in the saddle. 3.30 York: Kingsgate Choice, 7/2 >boylesports, win Kingsgate Choice won the competitive Scottish Sprint Cup lto. Before that he won another competitive handicap over c&d. He deserves his chance at this level and I expect him to take the step up in class in his stride. There is plenty of early pace in the race and it could be set up perfectly for KC. Ed De Giles is in decent form and has a perfect 2 from 2 record at York. In form jockey Pat Cosgrove is in the saddle. 1.55 Ascot: Fair Value, 22/1 Coral, e/w Fair Value ran well lto at Sandown. He finished fourth, beaten just 1L. He runs from the same mark today and will be dangerous off bottom weight. Trainer Simon Dow is in good form and Hayley Turner is in the saddle.

[Lodge]

3.15 - Newmarket - Field Of Dream @ 11/1 PaddyPower Quite like the chances of Field Of Dream in the Bunbury Cup. The 6yo is a regular in these big field handicaps over 7f-1m and i just get the feeling its getting round to his turn of winning again. Ran well at Royal Ascot when a 2L 6th and he was certainly disadvantaged from his position on the near side that day. His mark of 98 isnt beyond him, he won a similar race this time last year off 1lb higher. Both career wins have come over 7f including 1 at this track. Adam Kirby rides once more and I'm expecting a big run.

[Kithanga]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July

Chester Sat 13^th July I’m off to Chester races tomorrow and see the races as follows. Price forecasts are to a 100% book. Should be interesting to see how the Racing Post and the bookies price them up later. As usual, I’ll consider backing any that are above the guide prices that give me a decent margin of error. That means I can’t say exactly which ones I’ll be on yet of course. 2.15 Urban Dreamer (7-2) has been consistent and should go well having had plenty of experience, as should Weisse Socken (11-4) who wasn’t seen at her best racing wide last time. She has more scope for improvement though having had just the three starts. Extreme Supreme (11-2) may be best of the lighter raced bunch after being thrown in the deep end on his racecourse debut. 2.50 Red Explorer (11-4) is unexposed and looks on the upgrade after showing improved form to take a similar race last time out. He looks to have plenty of scope and should go on improving. Whatever he does tomorrow I think he’ll be even better over further in time. Of the dangers Joey’s Destiny (7-2) looked like he’d returned to form last time out, is more speedily bred and also has a fair degree of ability. Trinityelitedotcom (5-1) ran better in a slowly run event at Bath last time. He seems to travel well in his races and also has scope for better. Slowish time figures achieved on slow ground is a doubt though. 3.25 Majestic Myles (9-4) will probably be a popular choice to win this event for the third time having shown signs of a return to his best last time after a poor previous run. Back down in class on a course where he has a 100% strike rate, he looks to hold a favourites chance. He won’t have it all his own way though as Correspondent (4-1) is an improving 3yo who, if he copes with the faster ground could go close on a track he won at last time. Obviously well regarded (he ran in the 2000 Guineas) he doesn’t yet have the form in the book (or the timefigures) but does have plenty of scope. Another that is yet to prove she’s good enough but who has scope to improve is Ladyship (9-2) who’s yet to strike form this year. Quietly progressive last season, this filly is in good hands and looks as though she may, like her dam, improve with age and the trip is within her scope. 4.00 A very tight race with most of the top weights coming back from poor runs or breaks and I may just sit this one out. However, the winner may just come from Intransigent (5-1), Sir Maximilian (9-2), Summerinthecity (11-2) and possibly Al’s Memory (12-1). There’s not much between the first and third named based on their run here in May. Intransigent has gone on from that the better of the two but is undoubtedly better on the all-weather. Sir Maximilian is out to prove that he can perform as well over 6f as 5f, which I’m sure he can. The more significant doubt is the likely going as he put in probably his worst run of the season in good to firm ground at Nottingham on his penultimate start. Al’s Memory is only small and therefore may get bullied about a bit from stall 1. However, if they do go off much to fast he’s capable of staying on strongly from off the pace given his winning form at 7f. Summerinthecity bouncing back to form wouldn't be the biggest shock given his liking for the track and his yard. 4.30 It doesn’t get any easier in this race as I can see any bar Marwan Koukash’s representative (doubt he’ll stay) winning. Alta Lilea (7-2) has the class and should improve for the trip but is inconsistent. Deira Phantom (7-2) remains unexposed at staying trips and back on a faster surface (by Cape Cross) has a good chance. Good Evans (7-2) owes me nothing having battled well to land a 9-1 wager at a starting price of 4-1 last Friday at Sandown. That was a hard race though as they went hard from the front that day and I wonder how much that’s taken out of him. Snowy Dawn (7-2) has bags of stamina on the dam’s side but is still a maiden. He should also improve for the step up in trip and with the yard in good form may spring a surprise as I expect him to be a little ignored in the betting. 5.10 The pace is likely to be strong here with any number of prominently ridden types. Livia’s Dream (9-2) has the speed to cope with 10f but also the stamina to last 12f and I think that’ll give her an edge in this. Stellar Express (11-2) is likely to be shorter I think based on his last two decent runs here. He is unexposed at the trip and may be able to use his 8f pace to advantage. He was beaten only ½ length by Dolphin Rock (7-1) last time but that one hasn’t run since (7 weeks ago) and the race that day seemed to benefit those ridden from the front (slow time figures). Of the others King Of Paradise (15-2) is up in class and needs to settle better than he did previously. It’ll be interesting to see if Jason Hart tucks him in this time from stall 6 with so many other front runners in opposition. If he does, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t travel better behind the strong pace and improve again at a trip he’s unexposed at. If he goes off in the lead he’ll have no chance imo. 5.45 By far the strongest form choice of the day runs in the last and I fully expect Jeremy Noseda’s colt Excuse To Linger (9-4) not to hang about. He looked like he wasn’t enjoying Brighton’s unique track last time and back on a flatter surface should be able to continue his progression. Dangers are Queen Aggie (4-1) who was taken out of the 2.50 race and should be able to use her speed at 6f to good effect here and Black Rider (5-1) who travelled nicely when winning by a short margin at Newcastle last time. He’s sometimes slowly away though which won’t help round here and up in class too so needs to improve again. K

I've gone with 2.15 Urban Dreamer 9-2 2.50 Joey's Destiny 11-1 3.25 Ladyship 7-1 4.00 Intransigent 9-1 4.35 Alta Lilea 7-1 5.10 Livia's Dream 13-2 & Stellar Express 8-1 5.45 Excuse to Linger 11-2

[joeblitz]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July

3.25 Chester Majestic Myles 15/8 Paddy Power BOG

Majestic Myles trained by Fahey has won this race for the past 2 years and goes for the 3 here. 4th lto in a group 3 a Newmarket he should be spot on for today again over a track and race in which he excels. The others in the race with course winning form are respected although it has to be said that they have not yet hit the heights of this one.

10 Points win Majestic Myles 15/8 Paddy Power

1.45 York Snooky 11/1 Stan James

Snooky is vey well in. Although he seems versatile as regards ground he seems to be better on faster ground. He was beaten 1/2 Length lto at Newcastle on g/s and now races on g/f. In addition his trainer has a fantastic record at York and is going well again. It is a competitive handicap but I expect Snooky to be thereabouts.

5 Points e/w Snooky 11/1 Stan James 7.30 Salisbury Truth Or Dare 2/1 Bet365

First Of All, it seems incredible to me that Hughes would to hotfoot it from Newmarket to Salisbury for 2 rides for his stable. On the other hand the lure of a winner makes it all worthwhile! The Hannon yard farms these 2yo races and this one is progressive having run twice at Salisbury lto finishing second in a maiden over course and distance when an unlucky second behind his stable companion. That was 2 weeks ago. With the Stoute newcomer partnered by Dobbs and Suroors horses getting beaten all over the place and this Hannon horse now ridden by Hughes for the first time, he seems the selection by default irrespective of the fact that he has the best form.

10 Points win Truth Or Dare 2/1 Bet365

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July 2.55 York - 2pts win Stencive @ 7/1 (Bet365) William Haggas' runner ought to have more prize money in the bank in reality but has a big chance to make amends for that today and I find it hard to see him not going close once more here. He was a strong-finishing 2nd to Opinion at Royal Ascot and has finished in that position on four of his eight career starts. He looked a potential late challenger that day before not being able to close any further at the line and that's why I think he's interesting back down at 1m2f. Although he may have appeared as a late closer, I think he has the pace if getting the breaks for 1m2f and his effort did peter out a little last time out. His unlucky run at Ascot at the end of last season came in a very muddling affair so his stamina wouldn't have been totally stretched over 1m4f and although it's without doubt that he can win over that trip, I have a feeling he could prove himself a tough better over this distance. Handicap mark still doesn't look restrictive and a big run looks on the cards. 1.55 Ascot - 2pts win Taajub @ 9/1 (Bet365) This is a wide open contest but Peter Crate's runner really caught the eye at Sandown last time out and appears to be running himself back into good form. Adam Kirby couldn't find much daylight at all, letting his runner slip back down the field through the contest and finally once getting himself in the clear he ran on nicely to be beaten 2l by Doctor Parkes (has run well at Newmarket this week). On that evidence his turn won't be far away and he returns to his favourite track today with conditions ideal. 5f on quick ground is what he wants and if he gets the breaks he'll go close I fancy. His form here reads 2204122 and that includes a short-head defeat off a 5lb higher mark than today and the 0 came after a long break. Think he could take the beating if building on that Sandown effort.

[Kithanga]

Added Sir Max @13-2 in 4.00 to my perm. :-) Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July Unfortunately I have got the time to go into any detail on my selections but they are all based on my ratings whilst looking at their previous form and identifying reasons they did or didnt perform as expected. All prices taken last night and/or this morning. NMK 205 - Aussie Rules 10/1 Stan James - 0.5pt NMK 240 - Recanted 6/1 Betfred - 0.5pt - I really like the look of his Newbury maiden win consdidering his trainer's runners usually need the run. He ticks a lot of the stats boxes too. NMK 315 - George Guru 18/1 Corals - See BBOTD 1pt NMK 315 - Redvers 14/1 Bet365 - Hard to see him finishing out of the places if he gets the breaks. 1pt NMK 350 - Sole Power 9/1 Hills - Usually a 5f specialist but the way he picked up at Ascot suggests that he is going to be the more likely runner to improve for the step up. His trainer has said before that Johnny Murtagh was begging him to step up in trip and he knows a damn site more about the horse than me! 1pt York 145 - Andereigo 9/1 bet365 - 1pt York 145 - The Rectifier 12/1 Boylesports - 1pt York 220 - Sun Central 4/1 Bet365 (between him & Masamah on my figures) York 255 - Stencive 6/1 William Hill - Brilliant performance by Opinion at Ascot and the figure recorded was very impressive. 1pt York 255 - Clon Brulee 9/1 William Hill - Potentially a big improver from a smart stable. Targeted for the race. 1pt Ascot 155 - Goldream 10/1 Bet365 - Steadily improving despite not getting the run of the race and his trainer knows exactly how to handle such types. 1pt Ascot 415 - Bold Sniper 9/4 Bet365 - Way clear on my figures and should take some beating. 0.5pt (as its a 3yo race and they are my rules!) Ascot 450 - Come On Blue Chip 7/1 Bet365 - A truely run race in the class should be right up his street. 0.5pt Chester 400 - Sir Maximillian 13/2 BetVictor - Horse I have had my eye on. Progressive and will win a big handicap sooner or later but may prefer a more galloping track. 1pt Chester 400 - Summerinthecity 7/1 Stan James - Handicapper has caught up with him somewhat but track and draw are perfect. 0.5pt

[Kithanga]

Ratted but really happy made a few quid. Photos to follow k Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July

3.15 - Newmarket - Field Of Dream @ 11/1 PaddyPower Quite like the chances of Field Of Dream in the Bunbury Cup. The 6yo is a regular in these big field handicaps over 7f-1m and i just get the feeling its getting round to his turn of winning again. Ran well at Royal Ascot when a 2L 6th and he was certainly disadvantaged from his position on the near side that day. His mark of 98 isnt beyond him, he won a similar race this time last year off 1lb higher. Both career wins have come over 7f including 1 at this track. Adam Kirby rides once more and I'm expecting a big run.

:clap Really nice call Lodge 14/1 winner