Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May

[Aidymac]

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[TR] [TD=class: sortLinkLeft, align: left] [/TD] [TD=class: sortLinkRight, align: right] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: AO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]Borussia Dortmund[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D, bgcolor: #B7B7FD, align: center]4.3[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D, bgcolor: #B7B7FD, align: center]4.3[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]4.85[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]4.2[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]4.25[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D, bgcolor: #B7B7FD, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X, bgcolor: #EBEBFD, align: center]4.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]Draw[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D, bgcolor: #B7B7FD, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D, bgcolor: #B7B7FD, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]3.95[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D, bgcolor: #B7B7FD, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X, bgcolor: #F5F5FF, align: center]3.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]FC Bayern München[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]1.76[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D, bgcolor: #B7B7FD, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]1.72[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]1.83[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]1.76[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]1.83[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B D, bgcolor: #B7B7FD, align: center]1.83[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D, bgcolor: #B7B7FD, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B D, bgcolor: #B7B7FD, align: center]1.83[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D, bgcolor: #B7B7FD, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]1.83[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D, bgcolor: #B7B7FD, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B U, bgcolor: #FFC8C8, align: center]1.83[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D, bgcolor: #B7B7FD, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B X hover, bgcolor: #EBEBFD, align: center]1.86[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Mr Layback]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May I think the bookies are wrong here. Dortmund to win dnb at 3.20 is way too high in my opinion. Why? I think Dortmunds type of play doesnt suite Bayerns as good as the other european top-teams. Dortmund is kind of similar with Bayern, really good at counter-attacking for example. Both teams seems to have all players fit for fight, except for Mario Gotze, the Dortmund supertalent who ar about to join Bayern next season. He is currently doubtfull with something like a 50/50 chance to be fit for the final. I expect Bayern to dominate and keep the possession this game, and I think that will be the gameplan for Dortmund. Bayern is at their best when they can counterattack against teams with an offensive balance, so its not an ideal situation for them. Dortmund on the other hand is the outsiders and will have everything to win!

[RedDevil92]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May Hummels is highly doubtful after twisting his ankle yesterday. He is very important for Dortmund's defence.

[HastGill1]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May Hummels has only sprained his ankle, they seem pretty confident he will be fit to start. What is the latest news on Gotze? I placed a decent sized single on Bayern at 1.93 right when the odds first came out, they have been up and down a bit since then. I just have a feeling Dortmund will fall short, their defence is vunerable but I am a bit worried that they usually find another gear when they play Bayern. Should be a good game anyway, I see tickets are going for about 2.5-3k a pair!

[hadfield1]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May It looks like Hummels will be playing afterall. I completely agree that Dortmund will up their game against rivals Bayern. Plus they have to know this is their last major chance to win the Champion's League with their big stars moving on at the end of this season. That being said, Bayern Munich do show the signs of being the ultimate team and completely unstoppable in all competitions. For these reasons this game will be an incredible watch, but on the betting side Dortmund has to be the value bet. Despite expecting Bayern to win, the match is too even to pass up the odds available for Dortmund.

[danj2202]

i think you have to be looking at borussia. bayern are this price because barcelona are so overrated by the general public i believe i am correct in saying its over two years since bayern beat borussia in the bundesliga? Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

[RedDevil92]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May Everyone is hoping to have Götze fit for this match. But he will have late fitness tests most likely. He started training on his own last week and was due to start training with the others at the beginning of this weak.

[HastGill1]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May Reading between the lines I don't think he has progressed as they were hoping, didn't start training with the team this week as Klopp said he hoped he would and was still following an individual training regime today, it was always going to be touch and go with such an injury he might still make the starting line-up though..don't want to go on about it too much but he is vital to Dortmund and he isn't going to be 100% fit.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May Götze did train with the team today but had to pull out of the second training session because of some "pain".

[HastGill1]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May Borussia Dortmund have confirmed Gotze will not play any part on Saturday.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May Yes, Götze is out.

[Qure]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May

I think the bookies are wrong here. Dortmund to win dnb at 3.20 is way too high in my opinion. Why? I think Dortmunds type of play doesnt suite Bayerns as good as the other european top-teams. Dortmund is kind of similar with Bayern, really good at counter-attacking for example. Both teams seems to have all players fit for fight, except for Mario Gotze, the Dortmund supertalent who ar about to join Bayern next season. He is currently doubtfull with something like a 50/50 chance to be fit for the final. I expect Bayern to dominate and keep the possession this game, and I think that will be the gameplan for Dortmund. Bayern is at their best when they can counterattack against teams with an offensive balance, so its not an ideal situation for them. Dortmund on the other hand is the outsiders and will have everything to win!

The counter attacking argument doesn't hold for the Champions League I think, have a look at these graphs by WhoScored.

[hadfield1]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May So no Gotze. Could this give even better odds for Dortmund now? Rightfully so however as he is a key player. Yet another argument for Bayern to be victorious this Saturday

[ThemanwiththeSTATS]

Bayern look monstrous value to win in 90 minutes. Bayern haven't looked like being beaten in these big games and dortmund's defence gets opened up by almost any side in the world. Betting on Dortmund just because they're better odds is a fools erron. $1.44 for Bayern to win the final is value imo if this was Barcelona they would be around the $1.20 mark and this Bayern side is much much better at the back then they were at their best!

[Mustafa]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May

Bayern look monstrous value to win in 90 minutes. Bayern haven't looked like being beaten in these big games and dortmund's defence gets opened up by almost any side in the world. Betting on Dortmund just because they're better odds is a fools erron. $1.44 for Bayern to win the final is value imo if this was Barcelona they would be around the $1.20 mark and this Bayern side is much much better at the back then they were at their best!

But Benfica was also unstoppable this season until it came to final stages in their domestic league and Europa League Final.

[Mustafa]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May 2002-2003: Milan - Juventus, Italian Final decided on penalty shoot out 2007-2008: Man.United - Chelsea, English Final decided on penalty shoot out 2012-2013: B.Munich - B.Dortmund, German Final decided on penalty shoot out??? Bet365 offers @7.00 that a game will be decided after penalties

[immortal--]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May

2002-2003: Milan - Juventus, Italian Final decided on penalty shoot out 2007-2008: Man.United - Chelsea, English Final decided on penalty shoot out 2012-2013: B.Munich - B.Dortmund, German Final decided on penalty shoot out??? Bet365 offers @7.00 that a game will be decided after penalties

Something You Forgot... 1999–2000: Real Madrid - Valencia, 3-0

[Mustafa]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May

Something You Forgot... 1999–2000: Real Madrid - Valencia, 3-0

Because that's the only Champions League final I have missed since watching football :)

[asafbet]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May Bayern will win this final in 90 minutes. I don't think there will be penalty shoot out

[hadfield1]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May I like this idea that it may come down to a penalty shootout like previous same country finals. And we know that the Germans always win penalty shootouts. So obviously the winner is.... Oh wait... We still don't know

[flowers]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May The outcome of this match has already been decided. It was decided when Bayern dominated Barcelona. Does anyone think that 'they' would have Bayern beat beloved by the masses Barcelona just to have them lose to Borussia? Many articles have been written about the shift in soccer power after Bayern beat Barcelona, torch has been passed and so forth. Sometimes it is just as it seems...Bayern wins!

[MPLouis]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May

Something You Forgot... 1999–2000: Real Madrid - Valencia, 3-0

How is that relevant to Mustafa's case for penalties? :unsure

[Mustafa]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May

How is that relevant to Mustafa's case for penalties? :unsure

Maybe because it was Spanish final?

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May With both sides knowing each other very well and having played each other 4 times this season I can see it being tight with extra time / penalties. Draw @ 3.6 - 8 points Bayern Munich to win on penalties @ 13 - 1 point Dortmund to win on penalties @ 13 - 1 point

[rorylando45]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May See Billy Hill's have one of they 33/1 YES/NO coupons where you have to answer YES or NO to their 6 questions, with a fixed 33/1 payout if you get it right. They are not particularly good value but they are good fun, I won doing one of those on the Wigan vs Man City FA Cup final so I'm gonna have another go with this one. 1. Will there be a goal in the first 27m59 of the final? YES This is a very tight one but with a goal expectancy of around 2.83 and the time curve, I make it about 50.4% likely to be a goal in the first 27m59, so slightly better pick than NO. 2. Will a header or a penalty be scored in the match? YES This one is an easier pick, I am coming up with about 42% likelihood that a header will be scored (based upon historical data, many thousands of matches, combined with the expectancy). So the probably that a penalty will be scored definitely exceeds 8% which pushes this pick above the 50% mark, so another YES for this one. 3. Will there be 5+ yellow cards shown? NO Bwin are pricing the over/under 4.5 yellow cards line at 1.95 for the over selection, and 1.75 for the under selection. So their yellow card expectancy suggests they are expecting 4 or fewer yellow cards, so this is a NO pick for me. 4. Will there be a goal after 74m59? NO I'm coming with about 54% on the NO selection here, based upon the expectancy and the time curve. It's a tricky one cos there often seem to be late goals in these sorts of matches (Europa League final this year, CL final last year etc.) but I can't argue with the numbers, 54% vs 46% means I have to go with NO here. 5. Will there be 12+ corners? NO Another easy one, corner expectancy is only about 10.25 which definitely makes NO the better pick here. 6. Will there be 4 or more added minutes at the end of the 2nd Half? NO Another simple one, Bet365 are pricing the 4+ selection at 2.88 which would put the flip (i.e. 0-3) at around 4/9 or 1/2 so this is definitely the better pick here. So all in all I think it's a decent bet, value-wise might just about be breaking event. The one I'm least sure about is goal after 74m59, even though the probability is saying 54%, I just find that really counterintuitive. But I will stick with it!

[Alfie White]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May This is set to be one of the most amazing Finals we have ever experienced in the past couple of years. I must say that I'm happy that this two teams will meet in the battle for the most important trophy of the year and I must admit I'm sad that several things brought a shadow to this, one of the most important, event of the year. Second year in a row, Bayern has reached finals. Team that has been built couple of years ago is one of the most complete teams in the world. First team, second, replacements... whoever is on a green field, opponents end up with couple of goals in their net by the end of the first half, whilst they can't reach Neuer's goal at all. Simply amazing performances from have been seen this season, and they deserved this finals more than any other team in Europe. On the other side we have the team that always have their 12th player with them. BVB has had the most average supporters this season, a bit above 80k per match. Imagine that, 80k screaming their lungs out... it makes you want to die on that field to make them happy. That was the season for BVB, to make a long story short, they are one small step behind Bayern this season, as they have played the same way against their opponents in all competitions and they have more than deserved this trip to Wembley. All of this would not be possible if there wasn't for two big managers, Jürgen Klopp and Jupp Heynckes. Two great minds who managed to build their teams and to transfer their football understanding so good that whole Europe trembles beneath the trembling sounds of their footsteps. Sadly, although I can't understand why exactly did the chairmen decided it, this will be last match for Jupp (Pep will replace him at the end of the season). Be honest, when was the last time you have seen this superior teams? Beside that, """injury""" of Goetze is something that annoyed me quite a bit, expecially after the announcement that he will leave BVB for Bayern at the end of the season. But beside that """injury""" (if I didn't mention it), both teams are fit and pumped for this match. I can see that a lot of money is going to Bayern and that odds are taking a bit of a fall, but I think that this is the defeat that BVB has to inflict to Bayern this season (2 victories for Bayern, and 2 draws up till now in this season). I wanted to place money on BTS, but with """injury""" of Goetze and change of Jupp my mind moved to this radical step. BVB to lift trophy @ 3.1 GL ALL

[HastGill1]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May As I said earlier in the thread I backed Bayern for this game about a month ago with a fair amount of confidence, that seems to have ebbed away during that time! :lolI really wouldn't be surprised to see this one end in a draw after 90 mins. From Dortmunds point of view much will depend on Hummels level of fitness, I'm pretty sure he will start the game but he is also the catalyst for much of their passing from the back and if he is struggling physically (unlikely to be 100% fit whatever) the Dortmund passing game might not flow as well as it normally would and from a defensive point of view, where they are not usually very strong anyway, you would think Bayern can take advantage. The midfield/forward line will have to be rotated in the absence of Gotze, with Gundogan, Bender, Kuba, Reus and Grosskreutz probably starting. Bayern have no problems other than the longterm absence of Kroos. Neuer, Alaba, Dante, Boateng, Lahm; Schwein, Martinez; Robben, Muller, Ribery; Mandzukic, will be how they line-up. Their won't be tactical surprises for either coach imo, both these teams know each others game inside out and the close nature of all their recent games show this, don't be surprised if a refereeing decision or a moment of individual brilliance decides the game. Bayern were always going to be strong favourites on paper, they are certainly the better defensive unit and the problem for Dortmund will be if Bayern take the lead as I think it will be very difficult for them to get back into it against such a organised defensive side who can pick you off quickly on the counter. I think it will be fairly low scoring like their other recent games but betting under 2.5 in such a game feels risky, I don't think Dortmund will win the game in the 90mins, seems a big ask against a side that has been largely unbeatable away from home, but then you could argue Dortmund outplayed City away, Shakhtar away, Ajax away, Malaga away and drew with Madrid the first time around. Below is a list of the games in which they have played each other in the last couple of seasons (6 games) the odds at k.o (the highest at a decent sized bookies) and the result. 2012/13 Bundesliga - Dortmund 1 Bayern 1 . Odds (1) - 3.1 (X) - 3.5 (2) - 2.6 Bundesliga - Bayern 1 Dortmund 1 . Odds (1) - 1.8 (X) - 4.15 (2) - 4.8 Pokal - B ayern 1 Dortmund 0 . Odds (1) - 1.68 (X) - 4.33 (2) - 5 2011/12 Pokal (N) - Dortmund 5 Bayern 2 . Odds (1) - 3 (X) - 3.5 (2) - 2.6 Bundesliga - Dortmund 1 Bayern 0 . Odds (1) - 2.8 (X) - 3.5 (2) - 2.9 Bundesliga - Bayern 0 Dortmund 1. Odds (1) - 1.6 (X) - 4.0 (2) - 6 Looking at this you can see Bayern are heavily favoured nearly always and have come up short in most games, I think the most recent results are, as usual, the most relevant though and Bayern are certainly a better side than they were in 11/12. There is no real doubt that if you are looking for a value play Dortmund +0.5AH (Dortmund or draw) are the best choice. Personally I think this is Bayern's moment and the romantics that are hoping for a Dortmund victory will be disappointed again, I just see them being a little bit too strong against what is still a suspect backline for me, it will either be a draw or Bayern will sneak this, but only by the one goal, so these would be my plays. Draw - 4.1 - bet365 Bayern to Win by 1 Goal Margin - 3.75 - bet365

[dave5perth]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May Just thought I would put in an offer thats on boylesports for anyone who fancies bayern. Bayern to win to nil 5/1 odds seem quite a bit higher than others.

[kevshat]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May 4pts Borussia Dortmund (+0.75AH) to beat Bayern Munich 1.90 Bet365 It sounds funny to say that Dortmund can play without any pressure on them in this match but I believe it is true. Bayern simply have to win this match I feel else the campaign will be something of a failure and Jupp Heynckes will want to win the Champions League in his final match in charge having come so close last season. Obviously Dortmund will want to win but it’s a major achievement in itself for them just to have got to the final. However they have some dangerous players with the likes of Lewandowski and Marco Reus capable of troubling any side. I always prefer the side who can play with freedom in these big matches and that is Borussia Dortmund. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/bayern-munich-vs-borussia-dortmund-betting-dortmund-can-upset-bayern-s-party-at-wembley-20130524

[swindonfan]

Re: Champions League Final > Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund > 25th May This Boyles offer is a good offer if they let you put anything on. i was only allowed 0.20p:loon You need to go directly through the link on oddschecker otherwise it is not on their site. Best thing to do is lay it on betfair for garunteed profit I think. Strangely Boyles are also offering 2.5 for both teams to score yes. both teams to score No is 2.2 with Betvictor so again if you are not limited there is a massive arb available of 17.02 %:nana