Cowan Posted May 16, 2013 Author Share Posted May 16, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Bath 8.40 Basle @ BFSP 2nd Stonecrabstomorrow @ 9.00 Lost Above The Stars @ 7.50 Won @ 5.50 Forecast pays £51.75 Winner returns 7.50 pts Forecast returns 1/6 x 51.75 = 8.63 pts Return: 16.13 pts Staked: 5 pts Profit: 11.13 pts Thread Total Races: 14 Staked: 70.00 pts Return: 73.48 pts Profit: +3.48 pts Back in profit :) Newmarket (Rowley) 8.35 My Son Max @ 7.50 Moorhouse Lad @ 8.00 Rylee Mooch @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted May 17, 2013 Author Share Posted May 17, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Newmarket (Rowley) 8.35 My Son Max @ 7.50 Lost Moorhouse Lad @ 8.00 Lost Rylee Mooch @ BFSP 2nd @ 39.69! No return from the race but oh so close with Rylee Mooch at a huge price. Thread Total Races: 15 Staked: 75.00 pts Return: 73.48 pts Profit: -1.52 pts Back into negative territory again :( Hamilton 9.05 Captain Scooby @ BFSP Phoenix Clubs @ 5.00 Avonvalley @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted May 18, 2013 Author Share Posted May 18, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Hamilton 9.05 Captain Scooby @ BFSP Lost Phoenix Clubs @ 5.00 Lost Avonvalley @ BFSP Lost Thread Total Races: 16 Staked: 80.00 pts Return: 73.48 pts Profit: -6.52 pts Thirsk 2.50 Master Bond @ 8.00 Oldjoesaid @ 5.00 Jedward @ 11.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted May 24, 2013 Author Share Posted May 24, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Thirsk 2.50 Master Bond @ 8.00 Lost Oldjoesaid @ 5.00 Lost Jedward @ 11.00 Lost Thread Total Races: 17 Staked: 85.00 pts Return: 73.48 pts Profit: -11.52 pts Yarmouth 2.45 Olney Lass @ 9.00 See The Storm @ 3.25 First Class @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted May 26, 2013 Author Share Posted May 26, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Yarmouth 2.45 Olney Lass @ 9.00 Lost See The Storm @ 3.25 Lost First Class @ BFSP Lost Struggling to keep a profit this term. Thread Total Races: 18 Staked: 90.00 pts Return: 73.48 pts Profit: -16.52 pts Windsor 3.35 Don Libre @ 8.50 Trojan Rocket @ BFSP Signor Sassi @ 6.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints this looks like the sort of bet though cowan that would pay out a big one at some point, keep trying mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted May 27, 2013 Author Share Posted May 27, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints this looks like the sort of bet though cowan that would pay out a big one at some point' date=' keep trying mate[/quote'] Yeah thats true but it should still make a profit to level stakes as well. Definately been under-performing so far this season but I've only had 19 races so not much of a sample. Trojan Rocket was available at 14/1 last night but I went for BFSP and was burned because the odds shortened to 8/1 and BFSP was 20% lower than that! Thread Total Races: 19 Staked: 94.00 pts Return: 80.93 pts Profit: -13.07 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Usually I take 3 horses in a field of min 8. I was weighing this 8 runner race up when one of my selections Monumental Man got withdrawn at 7:14am on account of the going. I still fancy playing it. Brighton 4.30 Langely Vale @ 2.75 Whitecrest @ 7.50 And just to make it clear I'm putting 1/6 of a point on each of the two forecasts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Brighton 4.30 Langely Vale @ 2.75 Lost Whitecrest @ 7.50 Won @ 6.00 Back in amongst the winners! Thread Total Races: 20 Staked: 96.33 pts Return: 88.43 pts Profit: -7.90 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Pontefract 9.10 Imperial Legend @ BFSP Mey Blossom @ 7.00 Spykes Bay @ 6.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Pontefract 9.10 Imperial Legend @ BFSP Lost Mey Blossom @ 7.00 Lost Spykes Bay @ 6.50 3rd 4/12 runners were withdrawn. Unfortunately 3/4 of the Non-Runners were vital to my estimation of the pace. By the time it went off it was a completely different race :( Thread Total Races: 21 Staked: 101.33 pts Return: 88.43 pts Profit: -12.90 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 8, 2013 Author Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Chester 2.45 Chester Aristocrat @ 5.50 Lucky Numbers @ 8.50 Picture Dealer @ 6.50 I spent over an hour looking at this race only to find my top four contenders were the first four in the market! Makes me think I'm not doing anything special when I spend that long only for my thoughts to match those of every other punter in the land! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 8, 2013 Author Share Posted June 8, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Chester 2.45 Chester Aristocrat @ 5.50 Lost Lucky Numbers @ 8.50 Won @ 8/1 Picture Dealer @ 6.50 3rd Almost got the forecast :p Thread Total Races: 22 Staked: 106.33 pts Return: 97.43 pts Profit: -8.90 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Slight departure from the Flat to the All Weather today. I will be betting on the AW later in year. I didn't plan on betting the AW over the summer due the number of Flat races, but no Flat races for me to bet in today. Lingfield (AW) 8.30 Cyflymder @ 8.50 Afkar @ 7.50 Rigolleto @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Lingfield (AW) 8.30 Cyflymder @ 8.50 Lost Afkar @ 7.50 2nd Rigolleto @ BFSP Lost A well backed fav hosed up the rail to lead all the way and win by 3L. Need to watch these well backed favs in future! Hamilton 7.50 Barkston Ash @ 8.50 Hopes N Dreams @ 3.25 Jeannie Galloway @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Should have updated this after the last result. Thread Total Races: 23 Staked: 111.33 pts Return: 97.43 pts Profit: -13.90 pts Hamilton 7.50 Barkston Ash @ 8.50 2nd @ 4.50 Hopes N Dreams @ 3.25 1st @ 3.75 Jeannie Galloway @ BFSP Lost Forecast pays £12.44 I decided to bring the fav into this race after being done-in by well-backed horses in the past. It paid off! I didn't win much but that's what you get when a short-priced fav wins, and at least I didn't lose! Winner returns 3.75 pts Forecast returns 1/6 x 12.44 = 2.07 pts Staked 5.00 pts Return on race = 5.82 Thread Total Races: 24 Staked: 116.33 pts Return: 103.25 pts Profit: -13.08 pts Haydock 8.50 Cruise Tothelimit @ 9.00 Bronze Beau @ 5.50 Just Like Heaven @ 10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 14, 2013 Author Share Posted June 14, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Haydock 8.50 Cruise Tothelimit @ 9.00 Lost Bronze Beau @ 5.50 Lost Just Like Heaven @ 10.00 Lost Got that one wrong :spank Thread Total Races: 25 Staked: 121.33 pts Return: 103.25 pts Profit: -18.08 pts Musselburgh 3.25 Mercer's Row @ 8.00 Almond Branches @ BFSP Compton Heights @ 9.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 14, 2013 Author Share Posted June 14, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Musselburgh 3.25 Mercer's Row @ 8.00 Almond Branches @ BFSP now a N/R Compton Heights @ 9.00 Reserve Selection Red Barron @ 5.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 15, 2013 Author Share Posted June 15, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Musselburgh 3.25 Mercer's Row @ 8.00 Lost Almond Branches @ BFSP now a N/R Compton Heights @ 9.00 Lost Reserve Selection Red Barron @ 5.50 Won @ 10/3 The Reserve Selection saved it for me! Staked: 5.00 pts Returned: 5.50 pts Thread Total Races: 26 Staked: 126.33 pts Return: 108.75 pts Profit: -17.58 pts Musselburgh 1.55 Liberty Island @ BFSP Lupin Pooter @ 5.50 Jinky @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 16, 2013 Author Share Posted June 16, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Musselburgh 1.55 Liberty Island @ BFSP Lost Lupin Pooter @ 5.50 Lost Jinky @ BFSP Lost It's not working for me this season. I'm going back to my records for previous seasons and redesigning the process. What has become clear is I'm not predicting the pace as accurately as I used to. Thread Total Races: 27 Staked: 131.33 pts Return: 108.75 pts Profit: -23.58 pts Salisbury 2.50 Gladiatrix @ 4.33 Rebecca Romero @ 11.00 Dark Lane @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 16, 2013 Author Share Posted June 16, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Salisbury 2.50 Gladiatrix @ 4.33 Lost Rebecca Romero @ 11.00 Won @ 9/1 Dark Lane @ BFSP Lost Staked: 5.00 pts Return: 11.00 pts Profit: 6.00 pts Thread Total Races: 28 Staked: 136.33 pts Return: 119.75 pts Profit: -16.58 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 17, 2013 Author Share Posted June 17, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Warwick 8.50 Boots And Spurs @ 5.00 Rustic Deacon @ BFSP Light Burst @ 11.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 18, 2013 Author Share Posted June 18, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Warwick 8.50 Boots And Spurs @ 5.00 Won @ 10/3 Rustic Deacon @ BFSP Lost Light Burst @ 11.00 Lost Got my money back. Thread Total Races: 29 Staked: 141.33 pts Return: 124.75 pts Profit: -16.58 pts Thirsk 5.20 West Leake Hare @ 7.00 Ted's Brother @ BFSP Boy The Bell @ 9.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 18, 2013 Author Share Posted June 18, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Thirsk 5.20 West Leake Hare @ 7.00 Won @ 9/4 R4 Ted's Brother @ BFSP 2nd @ 18/1 Boy The Bell @ 9.00 Lost Forecast pays £46.91 Winner Returns 6.40 pts Forecast Returns 7.82 pts Staked 5.00 pts Profit 9.22 pts Thread Total Races: 30 Staked: 146.33 pts Return: 138.97 pts Profit: -7.36 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints I have been contemplating NOT taking 3 selections per race everytime. I will assess the strength of each contender and select between 1 and 3 per race accordingly. The strongest selection will be listed first, and weaker contenders underneath in descending order (this has been my practice since post #43). This was my strategy in 2011 when a consistent profit was made. My strategy this season was to score Forecasts/Tricasts but doing so blindly may have impacted profits. Warwick 3.10 Alnoomaas @ 5.00 Indian Affair @ 8.50 and a point split over Reverse Forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEND US A MONKEY Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Hi there, i've been reading your posts with interest recently and felt i should respond regarding your decision to adjust your strategy of taking 3 selections per race. Is it perhaps a little too soon? When trying to hit things like multiples or tricasts you really need to expect much higher swings in variance and your 3 selections per race backed at level stakes each to win only are indeed showing a profit already, which although not a great deal, is actually far better than it appears when you factor in all the value you were so unfortunate to lose on TROJAN ROCKET. And lets not forget how close you came to scoring on RYLEE MOOCH. So although showing a slight loss at the moment you could easily be sat on a profit right now. If you are sure about limiting your selections however, I would be interested to know which horses would have been 2nd or 3rd choice but were left out if you could include them also to see how both approaches compare. How about today (hopefully for your sake it wasn't the eventual winner)? Anyway, keep up the good work and I look forward to following your progress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Warwick 3.10 Alnoomaas @ 5.00 Lost Indian Affair @ 8.50 Lost and a point split over Reverse Forecast I saw a pace vacuum and expected one of these two to take it up. Unfortunately they were beaten by the horse in Stall 1 on the rail - who isn't know for early speed but clearly connections have seen the same as me and chnaged the orders. Something to note for similar race in future. Thread Total Races: 31 Staked: 149.33 pts Return: 138.97 pts Profit: -10.36 pts Is it perhaps a little too soon? Thanks for interest LEND US A MONKEY :) Yes you are right about the variance - it's a matter of time until one comes in - especially a Tricast! I don't plan on dropping the FC/TC altogether. The singles are making a profit to BOG and BFSP which is pleasing but the ROI% is less than I'm used to. Sometimes I felt that I was 'throwing another one in' in terms of picking 3 selections when I only felt comfortable about 1 or 2 - and that was the case in todays race. (btw my theoretical 3rd selection was Dark Lane who finished 6th - at least I can't have any complaints :/) You have convinced me to persist with 3 horses. I will list them with my strongest fancy named first, 2nd fancy next, 3rd fancy last. That way I can see if those no.3 horses are any use. I learn something everyday in this game and the process gets improved every week. Hopefully I land a few big ones soon :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Musselburgh 3.45 Red Barron @ 4.50 Pavers Star @ 10.00 The Nifty Fox @ 5.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Musselburgh 4.20 Jebel Tara @ 4.50 Music Festival @ 7.50 Silver Rime @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints ...and yet another race. Bumper day! Newcastle 8.50 Mutafaakir @ 4.33 Mission Impossible @ 12.00 Commanche Raider @ 9.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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