Cowan Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Thought it was about time I started a thread of my selections on here. And the start of the Flat season seems the perfect time to do it. Specialisation UK Only Flat & All Weather Class 4 & 5 Distance 5f to 7f 3yo+ & 4yo+ Handicaps Only No more than 50% of jockeys making a claim (races with Professionals only) No Mares or Fillies Races 8 Runners or more No Hard or Heavy Ground Method These are not system selections. I use a holistic method which brings together (what I consider) the important factors. Each race takes me around 30 - 60 minutes. The principles of the system are the same as those given by Willain Quirin in 1983, the American Mathematics Professor and author of several influential horse racing books. 1. Ability 2. Form and Condition 3. Angles (extenuating circumstances) 4. Value Principle 1 - Ability For me this means; ability to race at the Distance ability to race in the Class ability to race on the Surface I use the RP for this and look through the form for each runner. Principle 2 - Form and Condition If you have a capable horse, it needs to be capable NOW! To win this race. To work this out I look at; most recent finishing positions horses age official mark Again a lot of that comes from the RP but I also use stats from HRB. Mainly Impact Values again. Principle 3 - Angles (extenuating circumstances) IMHO two underused angles are draw and pace. Draw I keep a spreadsheet with the draw at each course split into fours. Example; Warwick 6F Stalls 1-4: 1.49 Stalls 5-8: 0.91 Stalls 9-12: 0.53 The number is an impact value. If no draw bias existed then the impact value for all stalls would be 1.00. As can be seen from the example a bias does exist and a horse drawn in stalls 9-12 will win about half as often (0.53, 53%) as would be expected if the course was fair. Pace For each horse in a race I record its preferred early pace. Meaning the position it takes up in the first few furlongs of the race. Tactics include: Leader, Press Leader, Track Leaders, Chase Leaders, Held Up Midfield, Held Up Rear, Dwelt Then I draw a diagram of how the horses will be positioned. If I find there are a lot of 'pace' horses then 'off-pace' horses will have the advantage and vice versa. Principle 4 - Value When I make my selections I do not consider the price. I try not to look at any odds when I'm working out a race. I only see the odds when I'm putting the bet on. The fact that these races are all Handicaps means that good prices are available in the majority of races. When I use stats I use the A/E stat to ensure I'm getting value. I bet 1 point on each and every selection. I don't bet each-way. The Posting of Selections Reasoning I intend to post up the selections without reasoning. I hope that I have explained enough about the process in this post. As you can understand, since I look at each runner in detail, a full explanation would take a long time to write and I most likely would not be able to articulate a lot of my reasoning. Frequency If suitable racing is available on the day then I tend to play one race only. If not suitable racing is on then there is no bet. Selections & Staking I usually pick 3 selections per race and back them as follows; 1 point Win on each horse 1 point split over a Combination Forecast (so 1/6th of a point per line) 1 point split over a Combination Tricast (so 1/6th of a point per line) I know this is a bit wacky but I've made over 300 points since October 2011. Odds 11/1 and Below = BOG 12/1 and Above = Betfair SP Fingers Crossed :hope :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Leicester 4.05 President Lincoln - BFSP Haftohaf - 4.50 Music In The Rain - 5.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
egg Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints nice start, lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shirleyoak Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Great start really well done :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints 1st 3 all home, full house, well done mate great start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Leicester 4.05 President Lincoln - BFSP - 2nd 7.63 Haftohaf - 4.50 - 3rd 4.50 Music In The Rain - 5.00 - 1st 5.00 Tricast landed on first bet!! :nana Tricast pays £67.09 = 11.18 pts Forecast pays £25.40 = 4.23 pts Winner pays 5.00 pts Return: 20.41 pts Staked: 5.00 pts Profit: 15.41 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karijini Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Tricast landed on first bet!! :nana Well done Cowan on a great start, hope it continues for you. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conny12 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Good Job Mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 10, 2013 Author Share Posted April 10, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Catterick 3.20 Pravda Street 5.50 BOG Sardanapalus 5.50 BOG Majestic Dream 8.00 BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 15, 2013 Author Share Posted April 15, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Catterick 3.20 Pravda Street 5.50 BOG Lost Sardanapalus 5.50 BOG Lost Majestic Dream 8.00 BOG 2nd In the last race I was done in by the favourite. It was in my shortlist but I decided not to go for it. I perhaps should have reconsidered when I saw it was well backed... Anyway, onto todays race. Windsor 2.50 My Son Max 4.50 BOG Cheworee 7.00 BOG Cadeaux Pearl 8.00 BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 15, 2013 Author Share Posted April 15, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Windsor 2.50 My Son Max 4.50 BOG 3rd Cheworee 7.00 BOG Won 4/1 Cadeaux Pearl 8.00 BOG Lost Cruise Tothelimit claimed 2nd to disrupt the Forecast, unexpectedly coming back strongly from a long layoff. Staked 5.00 pts. Winner pays 7.00 pts. Totals Races: 3 Staked: 15.00 pts Return: 27.41 pts Profit: 13.41 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 18, 2013 Author Share Posted April 18, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Ripon 3.20 Profile Star @ 7.50 Rusty Rocket @ 7.00 Johnny Cavagin @ 9.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 18, 2013 Author Share Posted April 18, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Ripon 3.20 Profile Star @ 7.50 Lost Rusty Rocket @ 7.00 Lost Johnny Cavagin @ 9.00 1st 8.50 Staked 5.00 pts Winner pays 9.00 pts Totals Races: 4 Staked: 20.00 pts Return: 36.41 pts Profit: 16.41 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 20, 2013 Author Share Posted April 20, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Thirsk 6.10 Llewellyn @ 4.50 Viva Ronaldo @ 9.00 Art Dzeko @ 8.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littleal Posted April 20, 2013 Share Posted April 20, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Hi Cowan, Interesting thread. Just wondering which bookies you would use for tricast/forecast? Thanks, LittleAL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 20, 2013 Author Share Posted April 20, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Hi Cowan, Interesting thread. Just wondering which bookies you would use for tricast/forecast? Thanks, LittleAL Thanks for your interest :) Forecast/Tricast are settled at SP so it doesn't matter which bookmaker you use. If your betting small stakes then placing Exacta and Trifecta bets with Totesport will show more profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 21, 2013 Author Share Posted April 21, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Thirsk 6.10 Llewellyn @ 4.50 2nd Viva Ronaldo @ 9.00 Lost Art Dzeko @ 8.50 Lost Totals Races: 5 Staked: 25.00 pts Return: 36.41 pts Profit: 11.41 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Catterick 2.05 Greenhead High @ 4.00 Ambitious Icarus @ 11.00 Ingleby Star @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Binchy Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Hi Cowan, Very Interesting thread and I like the way you place your bets. I'm someone who likes to look at the stats side of things and thought I would have a little go using your system looking through the racecards last night to kill some time. For the race you have selected today I picked 2/3 the same as you, Greenhead High and Ambitious Icarus, but also Mr Mo Jo. As my selections were based on stats alone I managed to be able to look at every double figure flat handicap race tomorrow whereas I imagine due to the in depth nature of your system you can only focus on a few races, so I jotted them all down and Will see how they get on today. Keep up the good work mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Hi Cowan, Very Interesting thread and I like the way you place your bets. I'm someone who likes to look at the stats side of things and thought I would have a little go using your system looking through the racecards last night to kill some time. For the race you have selected today I picked 2/3 the same as you, Greenhead High and Ambitious Icarus, but also Mr Mo Jo. As my selections were based on stats alone I managed to be able to look at every double figure flat handicap race tomorrow whereas I imagine due to the in depth nature of your system you can only focus on a few races, so I jotted them all down and Will see how they get on today. Keep up the good work mate! Glad to see the thread has inspired you :) ...maybe too much, you got the winner Mr Mo Jo and I didn't! :wall All the best if you decide to keep it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Catterick 2.05 Greenhead High @ 4.00 3rd Ambitious Icarus @ 11.00 Lost Ingleby Star @ BFSP Lost Totals Races: 6 Staked: 30.00 pts Return: 36.41 pts Profit: 6.41 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Newcastle 6.20 Johnny Cavagin @ 6.00 King Of Eden @ 4.00 Best Trip @ BFSP Missed the better early prices on these due to working nightshift! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 26, 2013 Author Share Posted April 26, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Newcastle 6.20 Johnny Cavagin @ 6.00 Lost King Of Eden @ 4.00 2nd Best Trip @ BFSP Lost Totals Races: 7 Staked: 35.00 pts Return: 36.41 pts Profit: 1.41 pts A poor run of losing races and failure to profit today means the overall P/L goes negative :unsure Doncaster 1.30 New Decade @ 8.50 Pelmanism @ BFSP Youhavecontrol @ BFSP More to follow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 26, 2013 Author Share Posted April 26, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Doncaster 2.00 Spykes Bay @ 8.00 Keep It Dark @ 3.75 First Class @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 26, 2013 Author Share Posted April 26, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Doncaster 1.30 New Decade @ 8.50 Lost Pelmanism @ BFSP Lost Youhavecontrol @ BFSP Lost Doncaster 2.00 Spykes Bay @ 8.00 Lost Keep It Dark @ 3.75 Lost First Class @ BFSP Lost Total Wipeout! Totals Races: 9 Staked: 45.00 pts Return: 36.41 pts Profit: -8.59 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted May 5, 2013 Author Share Posted May 5, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Hamilton 1.40 Pelmanism @ BFSP Legal Bond @ 3.50 Bandstand @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted May 11, 2013 Author Share Posted May 11, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Hamilton 1.40 Pelmanism @ BFSP 3rd Legal Bond @ 3.50 Lost Bandstand @ BFSP NR Totals Races: 10 Staked: 50.00 pts Return: 36.41 pts Profit: -13.59 pts Lingfield 5.10 Ortac Rock @ 5.00 Light Burst @ 8.00 Jungle Bay @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted May 11, 2013 Author Share Posted May 11, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Thirsk 6.15 Illustrious Prince @ 8.00 Mission Impossible @ 5.50 Dickie Le Davior @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted May 14, 2013 Author Share Posted May 14, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Lingfield 5.10 Ortac Rock @ 5.00 Lost Light Burst @ 8.00 Lost Jungle Bay @ BFSP 3rd Thirsk 6.15 Illustrious Prince @ 8.00 Lost Mission Impossible @ 5.50 Lost Dickie Le Davior @ BFSP Lost Out of form recently. Time to go back to the drawing board. Totals Races: 12 Staked: 60.00 pts Return: 36.41 pts Profit: -23.59 pts Beverley 5.40 Red Roar @ 10.00 Indian Trail @ 7.00 Black Annis Bower @ 6.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted May 15, 2013 Author Share Posted May 15, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Beverley 5.40 Red Roar @ 10.00 Lost Indian Trail @ 7.00 2nd Black Annis Bower @ 6.50 Won @ 10.00 Forecast pays £65.65 Winner returns 10.00 pts Forecast returns 1/6 x 65.65 = 10.94 pts Return: 20.94 pts Staked: 5 pts Profit: 15.94 pts Thread Total Races: 13 Staked: 65.00 pts Return: 57.35 pts Profit: -7.65 pts Bath 8.40 Basle @ BFSP Stonecrabstomorrow @ 9.00 Above The Stars @ 7.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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