Cowan Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints ...and one last race. Newmarket (July) 9.10 Tax Free @ BFSP Cadeaux Pearl @ BFSP Church Music @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Struggling to update todays results... See post #64. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Double Post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Musselburgh 3.45 Red Barron @ 4.50 Won @ 10/3 Pavers Star @ 10.00 Lost The Nifty Fox @ 5.50 Lost At least I didn't lose this race. Race 1 Profit: -0.50 pts Musselburgh 4.20 Jebel Tara @ 4.50 Lost Music Festival @ 7.50 Lost Silver Rime @ BFSP Won @ 11.62 (Note that BFSP prices are displayed with commission deducted already) Silver Rime was available at 20/1 early price but I chose BFSP. About 8 points lost with that decision :( Race 2 Profit: +6.62 pts Newcastle 8.50 Mutafaakir @ 4.33 2nd @ 7/2 Mission Impossible @ 12.00 Lost Commanche Raider @ 9.00 N/R Close... Race 3 Profit: -4.00 pts ...and one last race. Newmarket (July) 9.10 Tax Free @ BFSP Won @ 10.75 Cadeaux Pearl @ BFSP N/R Church Music @ BFSP Lost Tax Free was available at 14/1 early price. I have lost out on about 4 pts here :( Race 4 Profit: +6.75 pts Days Profit: +8.87 pts Thread Total Races: 35 Staked: 167.33 pts Return: 165.84 pts Profit: -1.49 pts So all-in-all a good day :) No forecasts or Tricasts... But got a 3rd-selection winner - so that shows it may still be worth picking 3 per race. Good strike rate today and hopefully profit soon! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEND US A MONKEY Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Hi again Cowan, I was checking some of your results earlier today and an interesting thought came to mind. By the way, out of curiosity, would Silver Rime have been a selection if I hadn't made my last post? I wasn't trying to encourage you placing bets you weren't comfortable with but just thought for the sake of the thread it would be beneficial to record the results of betting all three alongside those you recommended. Anyhow, back to my interesting thought. I noticed that quite often your winning selections shortened in price quite significantly by the off. Now because forecasts and tricasts are settled based upon SP I wondered if perhaps the success of these bets was heavily dependant on how your selections performed at SP. If your profits mainly or even all came from outperforming industry SP then surely this must have a huge impact on your expected returns. Obviously with forecasts & tricasts the prices of the other two selections are just as important as the winners, but comparing the prices obtained against the industry SP returns of your past winners could offer a useful indicator worth considering. I guess it is possible that due to value lost from early prices or BFSP that returns from forecasts & tricasts could be little in difference or even less than if you used the money to place larger bets on straight wins and benefit from BOG & BFSP plus reduced variance. Another thought that has just came to mind whilst writing this post is that if you intend placing an industry SP bet then there is absolutely no benefit in placing your bet until near the off. Whereas by delaying your bet you benefit from any new information that becomes available. So perhaps the key to success with these types of wagers could be to re-examine the race nearer the off with all new information at hand, make your selections (which may now possibly have altered somewhat), then finally compare the market to what was available before (to make sure all the value hasn't been stripped away) to decide whether its a bet or a no-bet. These are just a couple thoughts I felt like sharing because I've found your thread very interesting. I was actually considering betting them for race winner only or perhaps with even smaller forecast/tricast bets if your success continues. One other thing I'd like to know is how much of your 300+ points profit (mentioned previously) came from race winner bets and how much came from forecasts/tricasts? Lets hope a big win is due soon... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints [TABLE=width: 816] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]BOG[/TD] [TD]SP[/TD] [TD]BFSP[/TD] [TD]BOG&BFSP[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]FC[/TD] [TD]TC[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Races[/TD] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]Winners[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]AW 2011 -2012[/TD] [TD=align: right]74.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]52.08[/TD] [TD=align: right]69.60[/TD] [TD=align: right]80.06[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]36.71[/TD] [TD=align: right]116.66[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]63[/TD] [TD=align: right]118[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Flat 2012[/TD] [TD=align: right]78.33[/TD] [TD=align: right]46.18[/TD] [TD=align: right]85.48[/TD] [TD=align: right]93.67[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]20.71[/TD] [TD=align: right]82.66[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]84[/TD] [TD=align: right]200[/TD] [TD=align: right]33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]AW 2012 -2013[/TD] [TD=align: right]33.13[/TD] [TD=align: right]19.91[/TD] [TD=align: right]40.10[/TD] [TD=align: right]42.69[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]42.71[/TD] [TD=align: right]-3.08[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]43[/TD] [TD=align: right]120[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]TOTAL [/TD] [TD=align: right]185.46[/TD] [TD=align: right]118.17[/TD] [TD=align: right]195.18[/TD] [TD=align: right]216.42[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]100.13[/TD] [TD=align: right]196.24[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]190[/TD] [TD=align: right]438[/TD] [TD=align: right]77[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Flat 2013[/TD] [TD=align: right]43.25[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.99[/TD] [TD=align: right]22.97[/TD] [TD=align: right]22.07[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]1.69[/TD] [TD=align: right]-19.15[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]37[/TD] [TD=align: right]105[/TD] [TD=align: right]17 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Note that I wasn't placing Forecast/Tricast bets during the first season. It looks like this season is a bit unusual compared to past seasons. I will look into Drifters/Steamers soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Windsor 5.10 New Decade @ BFSP Jay Bee Blue @ 9.00 Fortrose Academy @ 11.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Doncaster 7.15 Meandmyshadow @ 9.00 Mappin Time @ 12.00 Point North @ 8.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Windsor 5.10 New Decade @ BFSP N/R Jay Bee Blue @ 9.00 Fortrose Academy @ 11.00 Reserve Selection Gung Ho Jack @ 9.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Windsor 5.10 New Decade @ BFSP N/R Jay Bee Blue @ 9.00 Won @ 6.50 Fortrose Academy @ 11.00 Lost Reserve Selection Gung Ho Jack @ 9.00 Lost Doncaster 7.15 Meandmyshadow @ 9.00 Lost Mappin Time @ 12.00 Lost Point North @ 8.00 Lost Happy with a winner in the first. The second race was thrown by a new stable changing the tactics of Victoire De Lymphar who they have tried to make a frontrunner but he has disrupted this race :( Thread Total Races: 37 Staked: 177.33 pts Return: 174.84 pts Profit: -2.49 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 4, 2013 Author Share Posted July 4, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Epsom 7.45 Golden Desert @ 8.00 Rondeau @ BFSP Kimbrella @ 9.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 6, 2013 Author Share Posted July 6, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Epsom 7.45 Golden Desert @ 8.00 Lost Rondeau @ BFSP Lost Kimbrella @ 9.00 Lost I gambled on the pace and it just didn't come like I thought it would :( Thread Total Races: 38 Staked: 183.33 pts Return: 174.84 pts Profit: -7.49 pts Nottingham 7.30 My Time @ BFSP Black Annis Bower @ 3.50 Mercer's Row @ 10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Nottingham 7.30 My Time @ BFSP Lost Black Annis Bower @ 3.50 Lost Mercer's Row @ 10.00 2nd The first two just didn't get going for some reason. Thread Total Races: 39 Staked: 188.33 pts Return: 174.84 pts Profit: -13.49 pts Doncaster 2.00 Barney McGrew @ 9.00 Unusually I only like one here. The others were affected too negatively by pace bias, draw bias, or suitability of distance that I couldn't justify picking them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Doncaster 4.50 Sleepy Blue Ocean @ BFSP Mey Blossom @ BFSP Diman Waters @ 6.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Bath 9.10 Comptonspirit @ 5.50 The Name Is Frank @ 11.00 Kyllachy Storm @ 7.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bully3061 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Good start today with Sleepy blue ocean. Fingers crossed for tonight :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Good start today with Sleepy blue ocean. Fingers crossed for tonight :hope Thanks :) Getting a winner tonight too would top it off! Doncaster 2.00 Barney McGrew @ 9.00 3rd I expected the pace to be just a bit stronger and that's all it would have taken. Doncaster 4.50 Sleepy Blue Ocean @ BFSP Won @ 13.81 Mey Blossom @ BFSP Lost Diman Waters @ 6.00 2nd @ 7.00 Forecast pays £70.34 Great result. Sleepy Blue Ocean available at 16/1 earlier :( Winner returns 13.81 pts Forecast returns 70.34/6 = 11.72 pts Race Profit = 20.53 pts Profit for day so far = 19.53 pts Thread Total Races: 41 Staked: 194.33 pts Return: 200.37 pts Profit: +6.04 pts So a profit for the thread even if tonights race is a dud :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Bath 9.10 Comptonspirit @ 5.50 Won @ 7/1 The Name Is Frank @ 11.00 2nd @ 9/2 Kyllachy Storm @ 7.00 Lost Forecast pays £37.86 Winner returns 8.00 pts Forecast returns 37.86/6 = 6.31 pts Profit from race = 9.31 pts Thread Total Races: 42 Staked: 199.33 pts Return: 214.68 pts Profit: +15.35 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 12, 2013 Author Share Posted July 12, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Chester 8.50 The Mongoose @ 8.50 Green Park @ 6.00 See The Storm @ 4.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 13, 2013 Author Share Posted July 13, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Chester 8.50 The Mongoose @ 8.50 Lost Green Park @ 6.00 Lost See The Storm @ 4.50 3rd Unusual set of events where One Scoop Or Two came across the field and knocked 5 horses into each other like dominoes. Needless to say this event ruined the chances of most. Thread Total Races: 43 Staked: 204.33 pts Return: 214.68 pts Profit: +10.35 pts Salisbury 6.55 Ceelo @ 5.50 The Dark Wizard @ 3.50 Star Of Rohm @ 13.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 18, 2013 Author Share Posted July 18, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Salisbury 6.55 Ceelo @ 5.50 Lost The Dark Wizard @ 3.50 Lost Star Of Rohm @ 13.00 Lost Thread Total Races: 44 Staked: 209.33 pts Return: 214.68 pts Profit: +5.35 pts Epsom 7.45 Amadeus Wolfe Tone @ 15.69 Magic City @ 2.75 Spirit Of Sharjah @ 4.50 I've broken from the usual staking plan and taken a massive price from Betfair on Amadeus Wolfe Tone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Epsom 7.45 Amadeus Wolfe Tone @ 15.69 2nd @ 8/1 Magic City @ 2.75 Won @ 2.63 Spirit Of Sharjah @ 4.50 Lost Forecast pays £15.17 Amadeus Wolfe Tone!! So close... Get my money back effectively with the short priced winner. Winner: +2.75 Forecast: 15.17/6 = +2.53 Staked: -5.00 Profit: +0.28 Thread Total Races: 45 Staked: 214.33 pts Return: 219.96 pts Profit: +5.63 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Newmarket 7.55 Picture Dealer @ 3.75 Noverre To Go @ BFSP Whipper Snapper @ 9.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Newmarket 8.55 Decent Fella @ 3.75 Greyfriarschorista @ 11.00 Valdaw @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Newmarket 7.55 Picture Dealer @ 3.75 Won @ 6/4 Noverre To Go @ BFSP 3rd @ 14/1 Whipper Snapper @ 9.00 2nd @ 6/1 Forecast pays £9.69 Tricast pays £98.26 Great result! 2nd Tricast of the season. They always pay less when the horses line up in price order however. Winner: +3.75 Forecast: 9.69/6 = +1.62 Tricast: 98.26/6 = +16.38 Staked: -5.00 Profit on race: +16.75 Newmarket 8.55 Decent Fella @ 3.75 Lost Greyfriarschorista @ 11.00 2nd Valdaw @ BFSP Lost Valdaw and Decent Fella lost ground at start and never got into it at all... Thread Total Races: 47 Staked: 224.33 pts Return: 241.71 pts Profit: +17.38 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted July 21, 2013 Author Share Posted July 21, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Redcar 4.10 Head Space @ 3.50 Al Khan @ 4.50 Rich Again @ 8.00 My thoughts tally exactly with the market for this race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Redcar 4.10 Head Space @ 3.50 Won @ 3.50 Al Khan @ 4.50 3rd Rich Again @ 8.00 Lost Winner: +3.50 Staked: -5.00 Profit: -1.50 Thread Total Races: 48 Staked: 229.33 pts Return: 245.21 pts Profit: +15.88 pts Thirsk 4.05 My New Angel @ BFSP Sardanapalus @ 5.00 Dialogue @ 8.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Thirsk 4.40 Thrust Control @ BFSP Blue Maisey @ 5.00 Destination Aim @ BFSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Thirsk 4.05 My New Angel @ BFSP 2nd in Photo @ 10.49 Sardanapalus @ 5.00 Lost Dialogue @ 8.50 N/R Thirsk 4.40 Thrust Control @ BFSP Lost Blue Maisey @ 5.00 Lost Destination Aim @ BFSP Won @ 37.45 ( Close in the first and a big odds winner in the 2nd :) +28.45 for the day. Thread Total Races: 50 Staked: 238.33 pts Return: 282.66 pts Profit: +44.33 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted August 3, 2013 Author Share Posted August 3, 2013 Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints STAKING CHANGE OLD RULE: Horses with an Early Price (EP) of 12/1+ are backed at Betfair SP. NEW RULE: Horses with an Early Price (EP) of 16/1+ are backed at Betfair SP. REASON: Too many times this season I have passed up on an EP and then watched as the BSP shortens. An analysis of my results now shows it is time to rethink this strategy. Betfair used to give better odds for longer prices. Now it seems only to give better odds for the longest prices (as compared to EP not SP). Thirsk 2.30 Chiswick Bey @ 7.00 Cocktail Charlie @ 9.00 Enderby Spirit @ 15.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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