Guineas

[NewPunter]

Re: Guineas Not mad keen on the flat; can anyone put me off an each way poke on Van Der Neer for the 2000 and What a Name for the 1000?

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Guineas

I think it also pays to look closely at the French horses. My husband was on Makfi when he won in 2010. Although he was sent off at 33/1, you could actually get 50/1 on course that day. Last year I was on French Fifteen who was 2nd. This year I'm interested in Style Vendome who has won a Listed race at Chantilly in March and a Group 3 at Maisons-Lafitte last week. He's also trained by same trainer as French Fifteen and was 25/1 with Betfred the other day. However he may run in the French equivalent instead so I'm waiting to see where he runs before putting any money on him. I think you have to really consider these foreign raiders - they come over here for a reason & obviously think they have a good chance. Just don't EVER put your money on French horses on the Tote in a Group race as they join forces with the Paris Mutuel. When Makfi won the 2000 Guineas, the Tote paid out at 12/1 instead of the 33/1 starting price.

My friends wife had Makfi at 66/1 think she got lucky that day with a pin, nothing worse than beginners luck.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Guineas Cant ever remember Mr Hannon ever using the word MACHINE when he spoke of Canford Cliffs, but its a word he's been putting into every conversation when he talks about Toronado, he also cant help but smile. Real deal if you ask me, Machine - :eek

[cpo]

Re: Guineas

I'm leaning towards Toronado for the 2000 now as an each way option. Dawn Approach is too short now albeit the most likely winner. Hannon thought last year this was is best 2 year old and he did have some good ones with the likes of Olympic Glory' date=' Havana Gold and Montirdige to name a few. He has already beaten the highly regarded Dundonnell in a race that won't have suited either horse but apparently this horse has a blistering turn of foot. I think in the Guineas we are more than likely going to see how good he is as he won't have to make the running and he will get the chance to sit and stalk in typical Hughes fashion. Don't really know which O'Brien horses will be going for the race but I am happy to take them on with Toronado. The other one I like is Ghurair who is very highly thought of but don't think Gosden will have him ready.[/quote'] If only I had backed him! :cry

[bowles10]

Re: Guineas my trends show that the 2000 G stat is an RPR of between 118-131 (only Frankel higher in last 12 years). This year only Dawn Approach (123) and Moohajim (118) qualify unless i have missed something?

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Guineas Would be nice for richard-westwood to drop in and give some input. I miss that fella.

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Guineas Stall draw out. DA gets 6, Toronado in 12. Admittedly, I'm not sure how much difference this makes. It just gives me something else to look at in the race which will inevitably leave me miserable for weeks as far as horses go.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Guineas

Stall draw out. DA gets 6' date=' Toronado in 12. Admittedly, I'm not sure how much difference this makes. It just gives me something else to look at in the race which will inevitably leave me miserable for weeks as far as horses go.[/quote'] Camelot came out gate 12 last year.

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Guineas Small field this year too. Aware I've notched up a rather pointless post here.

[egg]

Re: Guineas here's my guineas portfolio Dawn approach (2,000) 8pts win @5/2 Mars (2,000) .5pt e/w 16/1 George Vancouver (2,000) .5pt e/w 22/1 Hot Snap (1,000) 5pts win @6/1 Certify (1,000) 2pts @8/1(refunded) Roshdu Queen (1,000) 1pt win @16/1 Toronado (2,000) @7/2 Hot Snap (1,000) @4/1 1pt e/w double

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Guineas

here's my guineas portfolio Dawn approach (2,000) 8pts win @5/2 Mars (2,000) .5pt e/w 16/1 George Vancouver (2,000) .5pt e/w 22/1 Hot Snap (1,000) 5pts win @6/1 Certify (1,000) 2pts @8/1(refunded) Roshdu Queen (1,000) 1pt win @16/1 Toronado (2,000) @7/2 Hot Snap (1,000) @4/1 1pt e/w double

Not sure i understand your logic fella, you have a horse tip in your double, but that horse does not feature in your 3 selections for the 2000G's ?

[egg]

Re: Guineas i dont understand my own logic at times :$ Wasn't a tip but I thought if Dawn Approach didnt win then Toronado would be the most likely to. Didnt back Toronado single as I wasn't sure what races the Hannons were aiming their horses at. The other 2,000 bets were placed weeks before all the trials were raced.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Guineas

i dont understand my own logic at times :$ Wasn't a tip but I thought if Dawn Approach didnt win then Toronado would be the most likely to. Didnt back Toronado single as I wasn't sure what races the Hannons were aiming their horses at. The other 2,000 bets were placed weeks before all the trials were raced.

Best of luck anyway.

[Primevil]

Re: Guineas If we are to believe official ratings, DA should win this going away from Toranado. As JB says the faster the pace, the easier he will travel. Who will go 2/1?, not Ladbrokes that's for sure. Maybe 7/4, Corals I suspect. DA by over 3.

[danj2202]

ladbrokes refunding losing bets (as a free bet) all bets on 2000 guineas if dawn approach wins (max 25 quid) Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Guineas

ladbrokes refunding losing bets (as a free bet) all bets on 2000 guineas if dawn approach wins (max 25 quid) Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

That's cause he'l finish 3rd.

[Elchubb]

ladbrokes refunding losing bets (as a free bet) all bets on 2000 guineas if dawn approach wins (max 25 quid) Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

Is that online only or in shop as well?

[danj2202]

definitely in shops Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Guineas All the cash all week has all been for Toranado. Could he go off lower than 2/1 ? or even leave the stalls Fav ?

[Elchubb]

All the cash all week has all been for Toranado. Could he go off lower than 2/1 ? or even leave the stalls Fav ?

I reckon yes on both accounts, already pushing for favouritism on betfair

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Guineas Past winning times, going and winners. 2009 - Sea the stars - good to firm = time 1m 35.88 2010 - Makfi - good to firm = time 1m 36.35 2011 - Frankel - good to firm, watered course = time 1m 37.30 2012 - Camelot - good to soft, time 1m 42.46 Toronado's last run at Newmarket over the mile on good to firm ground = 1m 35.19 Toronado 7/4 Dawn Approach 7/4 - both with Corals. Toronado 15/8 Dawn Approach 15/8 - both with boylesports Stanjames are still feeling brave with a showing 9/4 - for now.

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Guineas I feel sick that I've been sitting on a good price for DA and at no point thought to trade some off and give myself insurance. Regardless of result, ante-post and I will be going our seperate ways. Bring back Mileni.

[Primevil]

Re: Guineas DA 15/8 with WH, who da thought it. He wins this by 3 or more, Toranado won't live with his kick. And times are for buses. Take em to the cleaners, for something that should be odds on.

[Binchy]

Re: Guineas 2000 Guineas - 1st Toronado, 2nd Garswood, 3rd George Vancouver 1000 Guineas - 1st What A Name, 2nd Just the Judge, 3rd Maureen Selections are based on ten year trends, seems very trivial to me but the last ten winners have all been born before the 10th April. Dawn Approach was born almost two weeks later. Obviously I highly doubt those two weeks missed development have any effect whatsoever on the horse's ability, but its an interesting stat I suppose.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Guineas From the RH's Site. Hannon said: ”Toronado did his last proper piece of work last Sunday and goes to Newmarket in the form of his life.“We always felt that he was more one for the Derby than the Guineas, but this spring he has been showing much speed in the mornings than he did last year, so, while Dawn Approach is obviously a very good horse, we feel that we have a solid chance of beating him.“You had to be impressed with Toronado’s dress-rehearsal in the Craven as he did it the hard way, and it takes a good horse to win like that from the front, repeatedly quickening.”Those sentiments were echoed by Hannon snr and also Hughes, the pair watching on as Toronado’s regular exercise-rider gave him a solo breeze at Everleigh on Wednesday.Hughes said:”I have been so impressed with Toronado this season and put him right up there with Canford Cliffs – and maybe even in front. He is much more the straight-forward of the two and you can ride him any way in a race, and I think he will handle the dips and ridges at Newmarket better than did Canford Cliffs. Dawn Approach is a very good horse, but he invariably hits a flat spot and I think we will win.”However, Richard points out that we also have a live back-up in Van der Neer, who impressed in a gallop with likely French 2000 Guineas favourite Olympic Glory at Herridge the same morning.He said:”Van der Neer would not have the speed of Toronado and may eventually prove a 10-furlong horse, but his form is solid – he was second to Kingsbarns in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, where he hated the soft ground – and his preparation this spring could not have gone better.“Lingfield would not have been his track, but he won his trial there in spectacular fashion considering that he was only 80% straight, and he did not take the home turn well and was still last straightening up.“Like Toronado, Van der Neer is very laid-back and uncomplicated, and I can easily see him finishing in the four.”

[Primevil]

Re: Guineas Some commentators in the RP and on TV....say this looks not to be a top draw 2000. Cant see their argument, I will say that there are a few G1, and plenty of G2 winners in here over the coming summer months, it's going to be a proper race, with TORANADO in here, I just have an opinion that it may be the best for form we have seen in some years. DA TORANADO GARSWOOD Thats my 123, Gl all.

[Elchubb]

I'm not so sure Prime, outside of those three, how many would you say have a realistic chance of winning it?

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Guineas GV if transferring American form could be lively and Mars is a fairly unknown quantity. Wouldn't rule either out too hastily.

[Toast]

Re: Guineas Dawn Approach at 2/1 has to be taken, in what effectively looks a 2 horse race. Not too concerned about being born 2 weeks later than the past 10 winners, he was forward enough to win the 1st race of the flat season, and did nothing but improve throughout the year. No worries about the ground, as he has shown to already handle it and so did his sire. Has won 2 grade 1 events, both by at least 2 lengths, which indicates high class. Easily the best horse in the race. As for Toronado, of the 20 horses he has already beaten, none have won and only 4 have placed. That is not group 1 standard. Ps, noted he is quoted in the derby betting. Can anyone tell me, other than Right Win, the last group winning 10f+ horse Hannon trained? I can't.

[Lodge]

Re: Guineas I took the price about Dawn Approach this morning too. I think Toronado has a great chance but i can't help feeling he is over bet because of the fact he has had a run this season. As for the 1000 guineas tomorrow i was looking at Maureen as an EW shot but the fact that Hughes has stayed on Sky Lantern despite Hot Snap beating him comfortably puts me off slightly.