Bedlam Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Cheers fella let us know when its ready and good luck for tonight So you're not interested in it's development Curly, just when all the time & work has been put in & it can benefit you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system So you're not interested in it's development Curly' date=' just when all the time & work has been put in & it can benefit you![/quote'] As I know very little about tennis it would be very foolish to even offer to help if its data entry fair enough but that's where my expertise would start and end as far as it goes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system So you're not interested in it's development Curly' date=' just when all the time & work has been put in & it can benefit you![/quote'] Sorry Bedlam , i can see where you are coming from BUT...What else is the purpose of Dalkents site ( which Dal has kindly promoted ) if not to be used for free or am i missing something Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Ok I don't mind anybody using the models. Just a bit of a hobby for me to take me away from day to day life :) Anyway midweek was pretty crap. 3 matches 3 losses and at one point all my teams were winning. Should have cashed in haha. Bets 13 Wins 4 Strike Rate 31% Profit/Loss +£1.47 ROI 1.6% Bank £1001.47 Onwards to the weekend. This weeks selections are:- [TABLE=width: 192] [TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64][TABLE=width: 345] [TR] [TD]St Etienne[/TD] [TD=align: right]£13.59[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.85[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reims[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.58[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.25[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lorient[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.31[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.71[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hannover[/TD] [TD=align: right]£17.57[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.64[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hertha[/TD] [TD=align: right]£13.22[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.90[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Heracles[/TD] [TD=align: right]£5.46[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Den Haag[/TD] [TD=align: right]£13.86[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.04[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zwolle[/TD] [TD=align: right]£5.71[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.90[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Breda[/TD] [TD=align: right]£7.05[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.40[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]PSV[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.86[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bradford[/TD] [TD=align: right]£5.78[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.38[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Preston[/TD] [TD=align: right]£5.22[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.07[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leyton Orient[/TD] [TD=align: right]£5.07[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.47[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fleetwood[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.03[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Watford[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.95[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yeovil[/TD] [TD=align: right]£5.13[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Blackpool[/TD] [TD=align: right]£7.98[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.13 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD=class: xl66, width: 64, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: xl64, width: 64, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Sorry for the formatting. Not sure best way of copying from Excel. One more week to go and Premier League/Spain/Portugal will be included with Italy the week after. Good luck all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Thanks. Let me know if you see any issues as I am picking things up all the time. Don't have a testing team and the day job is getting in the way :) well drop me a PM and if i can help in any way i will , like ive said i know Porthcawl about tennis i will post tomoro night which picks you have made , match my selections may be nothing in it i know , but if you dont shoot you dont score Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system I havent looked at the dutch games but only 2 pick match yours im on Riemes & Hanover but im also on doncaster @4.7 Ipswich @ 4.2 Blackburn @ 2.08 Gillingham @3.10 [email protected] Oldham @2.00 Tranmere @3.25 Torquay @ 2.64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted September 22, 2013 Author Share Posted September 22, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Well Reims let us down but at least Hanover did the job. Just waiting on Leyton Orient tomorrow to round off the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted September 23, 2013 Author Share Posted September 23, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system In addition to Leyton orient found a Portuguese match Setubal £5.82 at 4.72 Looks like midweek fixtures in France and Spain. Will look at these tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted September 23, 2013 Author Share Posted September 23, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Well Leyton Orient did the job although Setubal let me down after letting in an equalizer against 10 men 5 minutes from time. Current position is this Bets 31 Wins 12 Strike Rate 39% Profit/Loss +£25.91 ROI 10% Bank £1025.91 Couple of French games tomorrow where i have previously lost all games. At least i will be up whatever happens :) Reims £5.05 at 5.35 Nice £8.17 at 3.58 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system 15.57 on levante at 2.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Setubal let me down after letting in an equalizer against 10 men 5 minutes from time. they also missed a pen to make it 2 nil :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system they also missed a pen to make it 2 nil :( Fine margins in this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Been a bit under the weather so slow this week. Here are some for the weekend [TABLE=width: 303] [TR] [TD]Tottenham[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.95[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD=align: right]£17.69[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD=align: right]£14.30[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.34[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD=align: right]£20.34[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.61[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Blackburn[/TD] [TD=align: right]£7.74[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.18[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Utrecht[/TD] [TD=align: right]£13.24[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.89[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]PSV[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.70[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.05[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Vitesse[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.70[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hoffenheim[/TD] [TD=align: right]£13.25[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.89[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Stuttgart[/TD] [TD=align: right]£18.50[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Colchester[/TD] [TD=align: right]£3.97[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.23[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wimbledon[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.29[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.99[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Oxford[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.87[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.68[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Morecambe[/TD] [TD=align: right]£7.53[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.31[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fiorentina[/TD] [TD=align: right]£24.71[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.64[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nice[/TD] [TD=align: right]£12.28[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.04[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Maritmo[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.25[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.25[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munchengladback[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.80[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.97[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Also accidently when trying to bet on Valodolid I instead bet on over 2 and 2.5 goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted September 29, 2013 Author Share Posted September 29, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Found one more game for this round of matches. Ath Bilbao 13.3 at 2.62. Was having terrible weekend until had a late turnaround. Hope for the final 3 games tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Last minute equalizer for Parma was very annoying. Seem to be getting a lot of last minute goals go against me. Look forward to some in my favour. Two games for tomorrow Yeovil £5.7 at 4.5 Reading £11 at 2.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system What site did you get those odds from or are you still using Betfair? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system What site did you get those odds from or are you still using Betfair? No stopped using bet fair. Use odds comparison site and take best is. Normally pinnacle though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system After complete disaster (mainly due to last minute equalisers) last week lifted myself back up and get back on it this week. Current position is. Bets Placed 56 Strike Rate 35.7% Profit/Loss -£48.57 ROI -8.7% Bank £952.43 On a positive note i have been trading final league positions and locked in a £24 profit so that is helpful. Anyway here are this weeks bets. [TABLE=width: 296] [TR] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD=align: right]£14.61[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.43[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD=align: right]£13.93[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Birmingham[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.16[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.45[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Crawley[/TD] [TD=align: right]£4.50[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.04[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rotherham[/TD] [TD=align: right]£2.92[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.06[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leyton Orient[/TD] [TD=align: right]£6.18[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bradford[/TD] [TD=align: right]£3.84[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rochdale[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.14[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Verona[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.30[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.62[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Vallecano[/TD] [TD=align: right]£14.09[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Getafe[/TD] [TD=align: right]£15.92[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.57[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bilbao[/TD] [TD=align: right]£15.90[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hannover[/TD] [TD=align: right]£14.40[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.44[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Go Ahead Eagles[/TD] [TD=align: right]£12.45[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.05[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zwolle[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.51[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Groningen[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.13[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.81[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Vitesse[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.71[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gil Vicente[/TD] [TD=align: right]£9.55[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.25[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Marseille[/TD] [TD=align: right]£4.70[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.69[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Well that was a much needed and welcome turn around. Some late wins too :). Overall position Bets Placed 75 Strike Rate 38.7% Profit/Loss +£33.39 ROI 4.46% Bank £1033.39 Disappointed in my French model. No coincidence i reduced bets here this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Sorry to butt-in on the "Dalkent-Thecurlyone1" double-act ;). Good luck with the new season - good to see you have abandoned "laying"...... I am not a big fan ! Sorry for the formatting. Not sure best way of copying from Excel. It is very difficult to copy-and-paste direct from Excel - you usually lose the formatting, and you risk the thread hanging-up (I had this experience a few years ago). What I do is to use a image hosting site - I use ImageFra.me as it gives good definition (see Grex's Homes thread). Use "snipping tool" to select the table from your Excel - "save as" onto your hard disk. Upload the image onto the hosting site, and insert the provided URL code into your PL post...... voila :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Great will investigate that when I get some time. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 18, 2013 Author Share Posted October 18, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Back on with the football. Bets for the weekend [TABLE=width: 296] [TR] [TD]Man United[/TD] [TD=align: right]£21.88[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.58[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Aston vill[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.57[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Crystal Palace[/TD] [TD=align: right]£12.52[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.73[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leyton Orient[/TD] [TD=align: right]£5.93[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bradford[/TD] [TD=align: right]£3.81[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.58[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rochdale[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.42[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Livorno[/TD] [TD=align: right]£16.94[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Getafe[/TD] [TD=align: right]£12.10[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.86[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ath Bilbao[/TD] [TD=align: right]£15.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.29[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]M'gladbach[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.07[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.05[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Feyenoord[/TD] [TD=align: right]£7.40[/TD] [TD]lay at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.78[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Heerenveen[/TD] [TD=align: right]£9.59[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.31[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Heracles[/TD] [TD=align: right]£13.55[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.758[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Vallodolid[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.52[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Weder Bremen[/TD] [TD=align: right]£15.31[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.13[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Hi Dal whats the bank looking like now ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Pretty poor. -£9 p/l. Close to another good week then went bad. This will be the last week before I invoke a chance of strategy. If I have used consistent stake strategy across all models I would be £20 up so here is what I will focus. Also French model seems to have a problem judging by the validations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Pretty poor. -£9 p/l. Close to another good week then went bad. This will be the last week before I invoke a chance of strategy. If I have used consistent stake strategy across all models I would be £20 up so here is what I will focus. Also French model seems to have a problem judging by the validations. Thanks for the update im sure it will come good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system The models are all ordered logistic models and give a probability of Win' date=' Lose, Draw and obviously at this point I can convert to odds and bet if value.[/quote'] Is an Ordered Logit model the way to go here. Home win, Draw and Away win aren't ordered are they? Yes they are related in that the outcome has to be one of three outcomes, but they are surely nominal, not ordinal. Wouldn't Multinomial logistic be a more suitable option? Alternatively you could use three individual models to predict each outcome I suppose. How different how you found each league in terms of the model that is created? Do different things point to home win depending on the league? Is consistency the key factor in the premier league but having a star striker, or creating lots of chances explain more of the goings on in the Conference? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Is an Ordered Logit model the way to go here. Home win, Draw and Away win aren't ordered are they? Yes they are related in that the outcome has to be one of three outcomes, but they are surely nominal, not ordinal. Wouldn't Multinomial logistic be a more suitable option? Alternatively you could use three individual models to predict each outcome I suppose. How different how you found each league in terms of the model that is created? Do different things point to home win depending on the league? Is consistency the key factor in the premier league but having a star striker, or creating lots of chances explain more of the goings on in the Conference? Its a good question and i tried multinomial regression and it worked well but not quite as well. I believe they are ordered since i could have equally modeled. Big win, small win, draw, small loss, big loss which again are ordered. I am modelling from the perspective of the home team which infers an orderring of results. The models across leagues are very similar although as you can imagine in Spain it doesn't matter the recent form of Barcelona or Real Madrid they are stll allways expected to win at home. Other leagues, such as League 1 and League 2 have a much greater importance placed on recent results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Over 10 leagues was a struggle to find much value. This season my best results have been on the Championship, League1 and League2. Can't find any value there. Oh well so here are this weekends selection. Good luck all [TABLE=width: 209] [TR] [TD]Parma[/TD] [TD]£8[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leverkusen[/TD] [TD]£16.0[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Barcelona[/TD] [TD]£13.1[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.81[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]M'gladbach[/TD] [TD]£11.3[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.09[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zwolle[/TD] [TD]£11.1[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.21[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]£11.8[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.23[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hannover[/TD] [TD]£9.4[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.39[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]£10.9[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.44[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]£8.8[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.85[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Elche[/TD] [TD]£11.5[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.94[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Levante[/TD] [TD]£8.8[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.54[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 27, 2013 Author Share Posted October 27, 2013 Re: Football forecasting system Well that went quite well. Getting back on track. Suffering a bit with volatility. Win heavy one week. Lose heavy next. Win heavy the 3rd. Hope for a few wins in a row. ROI not as high as I had hoped but the models tend to strengthen as more games are played. A consequence if this though is i am finding less games with value. Don't mind though as long as win:) Bets 101 S/R 40.6% P/L +£42.33 ROI 4.2% Bank £1042.33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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