Football forecasting system

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Hi All, I am pretty new to the site and have spent most of my time looking at some of the systems in here. Although new to the site I have been betting for years. I went through the whole Arbitrage betting phase and cashed all the free bets. After being banned from most bookies (due to the arbitrage phase) I have turned my attention to sports modelling. Currently I work in modelling in the banking industry so it’s not a large step to apply it to sports betting. Anyway I have models covering 4 English divisions, France, Germany, Spain and Italy with further additions in the pipeline. There is a specific model for each division and they include various variables such as short/medium term form, home advantage, goals scored etc. The models are all ordered logistic models and give a probability of Win, Lose, Draw and obviously at this point I can convert to odds and bet if value. My current system (which I will start presenting here) is to use the model as the first step, apply some expert judgement and cap my exposure as I was recently nailed when QPR won at Chelsea. (note: this is how models in banking generally work too. Nobody follows a model blindly) I have found that most of the value is in laying the away team and this is where 95% of my bets lie. Normally I put a £2 lay and cap the exposure at £15 although this isn’t set in stone. Also due to laying i have to build the commission charge into the odds. Obviously I wouldn’t be doing this if I was currently making profit so I expect to now start losing fast :) To kick things off here are tonight's matches. Later in the week i will post up the weekends. [TABLE=width: 508]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Team Bet[/TD] [TD]Bet type[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Notts Co[/TD] [TD]Leyton Orient[/TD] [TD]Leyton Orient[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.55[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bristol R[/TD] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]Bristol R[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.78[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.56[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Football forecasting system From the graphs on your website, it looks like you use Stata. I am also a Stata-user (occasionally R) and am working on ordered logit models (among others), but am very much in the beginning stages. Can I ask you, when your model gives you WDL probabilities what are the cut-offs you use for each in determining edge? For example, say 4 games have predicted HW percentages of 75%, 60, 50 and 45% respectively. Do you calculate edge against the odds for all of them or do you have a minimum % that you stop at? And not just for HW, but D and AW as well. I'm looking for some rules of thumb or best practices regarding this as it seems that this one of the components of sports modeling which is more art than science. Thanks.

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Re: Football forecasting system I am also working on ordered logit models (among others), but am very much in the beginning stages. Can I ask you, when your model gives you WDL probabilities what are the cut-offs you use for each in determining edge? For example, say 4 games have predicted HW percentages of 75%, 60, 50 and 45% respectively. Do you calculate edge against the odds for all of them or do you have a minimum % that you stop at? And not just for HW, but D and AW as well. I'm looking for some rules of thumb or best practices regarding this as it seems that this one of the components of sports modeling which is more art than science. Thanks.

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Re: Football forecasting system

From the graphs on your website' date=' it looks like you use Stata. I am also a Stata-user (occasionally R) [/quote'] Ignore that. They are cearly excel graphs. Its been a long day...

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Re: Football forecasting system Yeah they are simply excel graphs. The models were built using R though and all the data sits in an MySQL database. I'm a bit new to the website building part so a bit rough. Since its just a tool for me doesn't matter though. As for you question on edge. Not 100% sure what you mean. The model directly gives out probabilities of HDW that add up to 100%. I then alter the odds taking into account commission charge and then i normally move the odds another 5% which is the level i will accept. The odds that i like to take are therefore 10% away from the model "fair" odds by the time i bet. This isn't set in stone though. If you run one of the models on the website you can see the "fair" odds and then the scaled odds.

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Re: Football forecasting system

As for you question on edge. Not 100% sure what you mean. The model directly gives out probabilities of HDW that add up to 100%. I then alter the odds taking into account commission charge and then i normally move the odds another 5% which is the level i will accept. The odds that i like to take are therefore 10% away from the model "fair" odds by the time i bet. This isn't set in stone though. If you run one of the models on the website you can see the "fair" odds and then the scaled odds.

Thanks, this answers my question. But to clarify, I was speaking about selectivity: When back-testing my model's predictions against historical odds, I get a a range of values for HW, D and AW with the HW and AW between ~10% and ~90% (per match). For example ManU-Blackburn from 11/2007, I get 87%--9%--4% (HDA), which self-explanatory. But I was asking about when HW or AW are around 45% or even 40%--ex: Tottenham-Bolton (10/08) 46%--28%--26% (HDA)? Much of the time is Draw territory, yes, but is it worth checking for for value for HW and AW here also? Again, your solution to adjust the predictions (for commission, etc) and then calculate edge appears to address these concerns and furthermore, would seem prudent. I will have a go at applying your method. Best of luck with your modeling.

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Re: Football forecasting system ok i think i understand your question. I don't often bet on a specific result. So in your example 46%-28%-26% i would look at where there the model thinks there is value against the bookies. For example AW model gives 26% = odds 3.85 Betfair has lay odds 3.5 which is value even if add commission and more. I would therefore lay the away win at 3.5. Currently at the moment i tend to mostly lay the away win where there is value. Not sure if this is fully the best strategy but seems to be working for now after trying various strategies.

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Re: Football forecasting system Well after 1 win and 1 loss we get to the weekend. here is the first load of matches i have put on. I am also waiting on about 20 others. Will post them up if i get the odds required. [TABLE=width: 737]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Team Bet[/TD] [TD]Bet Type[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Heracles Almelo[/TD] [TD]NEC Nijmegen[/TD] [TD]NEC Nijmegen[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.08[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rochdale[/TD] [TD]Wycombe Wanderers[/TD] [TD]Wycombe Wanderers[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.48[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.96[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Brest[/TD] [TD]Toulouse[/TD] [TD]Toulouse[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.62[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.24[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Udinese[/TD] [TD]Roma[/TD] [TD]Roma[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.64[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Greuther Furth[/TD] [TD]Hoffenheim[/TD] [TD]Greuther Furth[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.72[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.44[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]AC Ajaccio[/TD] [TD]Lorient[/TD] [TD]Lorient[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.78[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.56[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bristol City[/TD] [TD]Middlesbrough[/TD] [TD]Bristol City[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.78[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.56[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rennes[/TD] [TD]St Etienne[/TD] [TD]St Etienne[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.78[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.56[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Colchester United[/TD] [TD]Crewe Alexandra[/TD] [TD]Crewe Alexandra[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.92[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Torquay United[/TD] [TD]Oxford United[/TD] [TD]Oxford United[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.94[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.88[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Birmingham City[/TD] [TD]Derby County[/TD] [TD]Derby County[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Portsmouth[/TD] [TD]Bury[/TD] [TD]Bury[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.05[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Norwich City[/TD] [TD]Southampton[/TD] [TD]Southampton[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]AFC Wimbledon[/TD] [TD]York City[/TD] [TD]York City[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Huddersfield Town[/TD] [TD]Charlton Athletic[/TD] [TD]Charlton Athletic[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.15[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reading[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]West Bromwich Albion[/TD] [TD]Swansea City[/TD] [TD]Swansea City[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bolton Wanderers[/TD] [TD]Brighton and Hove Albion[/TD] [TD]Brighton and Hove Albion[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.55[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Queens Park Rangers[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.55[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chesterfield[/TD] [TD]Bristol Rovers[/TD] [TD]Bristol Rovers[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.75[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sheffield United[/TD] [TD]Milton Keynes Dons[/TD] [TD]Milton Keynes Dons[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.75[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Evian Thonon Gaillar[/TD] [TD]Sochaux[/TD] [TD]Sochaux[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.9[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tranmere Rovers[/TD] [TD]Oldham Athletic[/TD] [TD]Oldham Athletic[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Real Betis[/TD] [TD]Osasuna[/TD] [TD]Osasuna[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]4.8[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]7.6[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Football forecasting system Added for the weekend [TABLE=width: 397]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Team bet[/TD] [TD]Type[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Colchester [/TD] [TD]Crewe[/TD] [TD]Crewe[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.92[/TD] [TD]3.84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Peterboro[/TD] [TD]Ipswich[/TD] [TD]Ipswich[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.96[/TD] [TD]3.92[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Schalke[/TD] [TD]Dortmund[/TD] [TD]Dortmund[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.08[/TD] [TD]2.16[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Football forecasting system Here are the results from my my first load of matches. Since i am targeting a 5% return its not going too badly. [TABLE=width: 169]

[TR] [TD]Number of Bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wins[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Win Rate[/TD] [TD=align: right]68%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [TD=align: right]£118.62[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]P/L[/TD] [TD=align: right]£4.10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ROI[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.5%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 797] [TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Team Bet[/TD] [TD]Bet type[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Notts Co[/TD] [TD]Leyton Orient[/TD] [TD]Leyton Orient[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.55[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.1[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bristol R[/TD] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]Bristol R[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.78[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.56[/TD] [TD]-3.56[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Heracles Almelo[/TD] [TD]NEC Nijmegen[/TD] [TD]NEC Nijmegen[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.08[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.16[/TD] [TD]-2.26[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rochdale[/TD] [TD]Wycombe Wanderers[/TD] [TD]Wycombe Wanderers[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.48[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.96[/TD] [TD]-2.96[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Brest[/TD] [TD]Toulouse[/TD] [TD]Toulouse[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.62[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.24[/TD] [TD]-3.24[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Udinese[/TD] [TD]Roma[/TD] [TD]Roma[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.64[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.28[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Greuther Furth[/TD] [TD]Hoffenheim[/TD] [TD]Greuther Furth[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.72[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.44[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]AC Ajaccio[/TD] [TD]Lorient[/TD] [TD]Lorient[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.78[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.56[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bristol City[/TD] [TD]Middlesbrough[/TD] [TD]Bristol City[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.78[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.56[/TD] [TD]-3.56[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rennes[/TD] [TD]St Etienne[/TD] [TD]St Etienne[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.78[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.56[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Colchester United[/TD] [TD]Crewe Alexandra[/TD] [TD]Crewe Alexandra[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.92[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.84[/TD] [TD]-3.84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Torquay United[/TD] [TD]Oxford United[/TD] [TD]Oxford United[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.94[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.88[/TD] [TD]-3.88[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Birmingham City[/TD] [TD]Derby County[/TD] [TD]Derby County[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Portsmouth[/TD] [TD]Bury[/TD] [TD]Bury[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.05[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.1[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Norwich City[/TD] [TD]Southampton[/TD] [TD]Southampton[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.2[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]AFC Wimbledon[/TD] [TD]York City[/TD] [TD]York City[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.2[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Huddersfield Town[/TD] [TD]Charlton Athletic[/TD] [TD]Charlton Athletic[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.15[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.3[/TD] [TD]-4.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reading[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.4[/TD] [TD]-4.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]West Bromwich Albion[/TD] [TD]Swansea City[/TD] [TD]Swansea City[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.6[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bolton Wanderers[/TD] [TD]Brighton and Hove Albion[/TD] [TD]Brighton and Hove Albion[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.55[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.1[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Queens Park Rangers[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.55[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.1[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chesterfield[/TD] [TD]Bristol Rovers[/TD] [TD]Bristol Rovers[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.75[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.5[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sheffield United[/TD] [TD]Milton Keynes Dons[/TD] [TD]Milton Keynes Dons[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.75[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.5[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Evian Thonon Gaillar[/TD] [TD]Sochaux[/TD] [TD]Sochaux[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.9[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.8[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tranmere Rovers[/TD] [TD]Oldham Athletic[/TD] [TD]Oldham Athletic[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Real Betis[/TD] [TD]Osasuna[/TD] [TD]Osasuna[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]4.8[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]7.6[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Peterboro[/TD] [TD]Ipswich[/TD] [TD]Ipswich[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.96[/TD] [TD]3.92[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Schalke[/TD] [TD]Dortmund[/TD] [TD]Dortmund[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.08[/TD] [TD]2.16[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Football forecasting system Here are the bets i have on today (Sunday). I have noticed historically the models tend to do better in Spain and Italy so hope for a good day. [TABLE=width: 403]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Team bet[/TD] [TD]Type[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cagliari[/TD] [TD]Sampdoria[/TD] [TD]Sampdoria[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]3.55[/TD] [TD]5.61[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Stuttgart[/TD] [TD]Hamburg[/TD] [TD]Hamburg[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.1[/TD] [TD]4.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ath Bilbao[/TD] [TD]Valencia[/TD] [TD]Ath Bilbao[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]2.64[/TD] [TD]3.608[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hannover[/TD] [TD]Frankfurt[/TD] [TD]Frankfurt[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.15[/TD] [TD]4.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lazio[/TD] [TD]Fiorentina[/TD] [TD]Fiorentina[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]3.15[/TD] [TD]4.73[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Inter[/TD] [TD]Bologna[/TD] [TD]Bologna[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]5.4[/TD] [TD]9.68[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Parma[/TD] [TD]Torino[/TD] [TD]Torino[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]4.5[/TD] [TD]7.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lyon[/TD] [TD]Marseille[/TD] [TD]Marseille[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.75[/TD] [TD]5.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Twente[/TD] [TD]Vitesse[/TD] [TD]Vitesse[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.8[/TD] [TD]5.6[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Football forecasting system Well not a great day. Italy was a big problem with Inter and Lazio losing at home. Now playing catch up. [TABLE=width: 169]

[TR] [TD]Number of Bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]38[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wins[/TD] [TD=align: right]24[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Win Rate[/TD] [TD=align: right]63%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [TD=align: right]£175.71[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]P/L[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£13.65[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ROI[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.8%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Football forecasting system One match tonight. 2.2 Lay of Granada at Zaragoza with odds of 3.6

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Re: Football forecasting system Just a few qualifying bets tonight. [TABLE=width: 802]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Team bet[/TD] [TD]Bet Type[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Notts County[/TD] [TD] v [/TD] [TD]Preston North End[/TD] [TD]Preston North End[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.92[/TD] [TD]3.84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Stevenage[/TD] [TD] v [/TD] [TD]Bournemouth[/TD] [TD]Bournemouth[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.06[/TD] [TD]2.12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Walsall[/TD] [TD] v [/TD] [TD]Tranmere Rovers[/TD] [TD]Walsall[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.22[/TD] [TD]2.44[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yeovil Town[/TD] [TD] v [/TD] [TD]Crawley Town[/TD] [TD]Crawley Town[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.55[/TD] [TD]5.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]York City[/TD] [TD] v [/TD] [TD]Rochdale[/TD] [TD]Rochdale[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.88[/TD] [TD]3.76[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Football forecasting system Weekends fixtures. A lot of games on. Hoping for the best. [TABLE=width: 642]

[TR] [TD]home[/TD] [TD]away[/TD] [TD]team bet[/TD] [TD]bet type[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]stake[/TD] [TD]exposure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]Manchester City[/TD] [TD]Manchester City[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]2.08[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Granada[/TD] [TD]Levante[/TD] [TD]Granada[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]2.08[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]2.268[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Milton Keynes Dons[/TD] [TD]Tranmere Rovers[/TD] [TD]Milton Keynes Dons[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]2.14[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wigan Athletic[/TD] [TD]Newcastle United[/TD] [TD]Wigan Athletic[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]2.4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sampdoria[/TD] [TD]Inter Milan[/TD] [TD]Sampdoria[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]2.46[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]3.066[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Torino[/TD] [TD]Lazio[/TD] [TD]Torino[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]2.56[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]3.276[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Pescara[/TD] [TD]Chievo[/TD] [TD]Chievo[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]2.62[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]3.402[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hoffenheim[/TD] [TD]Mainz[/TD] [TD]Hoffenheim[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]2.64[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]3.444[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]VVV[/TD] [TD]Heracles Almelo[/TD] [TD]Heracles Almelo[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]2.68[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.36[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ipswich Town[/TD] [TD]Bolton Wanderers[/TD] [TD]Ipswich Town[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]2.76[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sheffield Wednesday[/TD] [TD]Cardiff City[/TD] [TD]Sheffield Wednesday[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bury[/TD] [TD]Colchester United[/TD] [TD]Colchester United[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.05[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Accrington Stanley[/TD] [TD]Barnet[/TD] [TD]Barnet[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Brighton and Hove Albion[/TD] [TD]Crystal Palace[/TD] [TD]Crystal Palace[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cheltenham Town[/TD] [TD]Rotherham United[/TD] [TD]Rotherham United[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exeter City[/TD] [TD]Bradford City[/TD] [TD]Bradford City[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]Queens Park Rangers[/TD] [TD]Queens Park Rangers[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Walsall[/TD] [TD]Crawley Town[/TD] [TD]Crawley Town[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Aldershot Town[/TD] [TD]AFC Wimbledon[/TD] [TD]AFC Wimbledon[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.35[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Getafe[/TD] [TD]Athletic Bilbao[/TD] [TD]Athletic Bilbao[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.4[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]5.04[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Swansea City[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]Swansea City[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.45[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Siena[/TD] [TD]Cagliari[/TD] [TD]Cagliari[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.5[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]5.25[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wolverhampton Wanderers[/TD] [TD]Bristol City[/TD] [TD]Bristol City[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.5[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Notts County[/TD] [TD]Scunthorpe United[/TD] [TD]Scunthorpe United[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.6[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Crewe Alexandra[/TD] [TD]Shrewsbury Town[/TD] [TD]Shrewsbury Town[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.65[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]Norwich City[/TD] [TD]Norwich City[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leyton Orient[/TD] [TD]Carlisle United[/TD] [TD]Carlisle United[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]4.2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]6.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leeds United[/TD] [TD]Huddersfield Town[/TD] [TD]Huddersfield Town[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]4.5[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hamburg[/TD] [TD]FC Augsburg[/TD] [TD]FC Augsburg[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]4.6[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]7.56[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Coventry City[/TD] [TD]Hartlepool United[/TD] [TD]Hartlepool United[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]4.7[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]7.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Valencia[/TD] [TD]Real Betis[/TD] [TD]Real Betis[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]5.9[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]9.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]West Ham United[/TD] [TD]West Ham United[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]10.5[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Football forecasting system Some more for the weekend. Forgot about the french model [TABLE=width: 642]

[TR] [TD]home[/TD] [TD]away[/TD] [TD]team bet[/TD] [TD]bet type[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]stake[/TD] [TD]exposure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Souchaux[/TD] [TD]Valenciennes[/TD] [TD]Souchaux[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]2.36[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]2.856[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reims[/TD] [TD]Rennes[/TD] [TD]Reims[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]3.05[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]4.305[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Montpellier[/TD] [TD]ESTAC Troyes[/TD] [TD]ESTAC Troyes[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]7.4[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]13.44[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Football forecasting system Still down. But going in the right direction [TABLE=width: 243]

[TR] [TD]Number of Bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]73[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wins[/TD] [TD=align: right]49[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Win Rate[/TD] [TD=align: right]67%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [TD=align: right]£360.97[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]P/L[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£8.18[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ROI[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2.3%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Football forecasting system Just 3 games tonight qualified [TABLE=width: 720]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Team Bet[/TD] [TD]Bet type[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yeovil[/TD] [TD]Swindon[/TD] [TD]Swindon[/TD] [TD]lay[/TD] [TD]2.52[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.04[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Crewe Alexandra[/TD] [TD]Milton Keynes Dons[/TD] [TD]Milton Keynes Dons[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.58[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bury[/TD] [TD]Stevenage[/TD] [TD]Bury[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.56[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.12[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Football forecasting system Not many games qualifying today. Especially with the Snow [TABLE=width: 720]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Team Bet[/TD] [TD]Bet type[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Preston[/TD] [TD]Leyton Orinet[/TD] [TD]Preston[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.26[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Torquay[/TD] [TD]York[/TD] [TD]York[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fleetwoord[/TD] [TD]Dag & Red[/TD] [TD]Dag & Red[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.85[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5.7[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Football forecasting system Still heading in the right direction. Hopefully turn positive over the next round of matches. [TABLE=width: 243]

[TR] [TD]Number of Bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]79[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wins[/TD] [TD=align: right]53[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Win Rate[/TD] [TD=align: right]67%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [TD=align: right]£383.11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]P/L[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£6.74[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ROI[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1.8%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[thecurlyone1]

Re: Football forecasting system Dal if you had backed the opposing side for £2 instead of laying your side ( or backed for the same liability as the lay ) , what would your bank stand at now ?

[dalkent]

Re: Football forecasting system

Dal if you had backed the opposing side for £2 instead of laying your side ( or backed for the same liability as the lay ) , what would your bank stand at now ?

Its difficult to pin this down exactly as the odds on "back" would not be same as the "lay" odds i achieved. If i had managed to back the opposite side at the lay odds i achieved then i would be currently at -2%. So using the actual back odds available then i would be in an even worse position then -2%.

[dalkent]

Re: Football forecasting system One bet today. Layed Stevenage at 4.2 against Tranmere.

[dalkent]

Re: Football forecasting system One bet today. Layed Stevenage at 4.2 against Tranmere.

[dalkent]

Re: Football forecasting system 1 game. 1 success. Almost there. [TABLE=width: 243]

[TR] [TD]Number of Bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]80[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wins[/TD] [TD=align: right]54[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Win Rate[/TD] [TD=align: right]68%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [TD=align: right]£389.51[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]P/L[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£4.84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ROI[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1.2%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Football forecasting system Busy weekend of games. Here are the models selections for Good Friday. Lets hope it is a good friday [TABLE=width: 720]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Team Bet[/TD] [TD]Bet type[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Port Vale[/TD] [TD]Cheltenham[/TD] [TD]Cheltenham[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Carlisle[/TD] [TD]Shrewsbury Town[/TD] [TD]Shrewsbury Town[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Blackburn[/TD] [TD]Blackpool[/TD] [TD]Blackpool[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tranmere Rovers[/TD] [TD]Sheffield United[/TD] [TD]Sheffield United[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.44[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2.88[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Barnet[/TD] [TD]Dag & Red[/TD] [TD]Dag & Red[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scunthorpe United[/TD] [TD]Leyton Orient[/TD] [TD]Scunthorpe United[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]2.66[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3.32[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yeovil[/TD] [TD]Walsall[/TD] [TD]Walsall[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]3.35[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4.7[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[thecurlyone1]

Re: Football forecasting system Just another question Dal Why dont you lay to a set liability and take advantage of the lower odds instead of a fixed stake ?

[dalkent]

Re: Football forecasting system

Just another question Dal Why dont you lay to a set liability and take advantage of the lower odds instead of a fixed stake ?

Honestly i haven't worked on optimizing stakes. For now since i am laying the majority of the time i am by definition exposing myself more when there is more chance of the match going in my favour. So this is the same as betting more when there is more chance of winning. Another part of my betting that i haven't mentioned is that i am betting 1% of a 200 pot for each model. So for Spanish and Italian models over the months i have increased these pots to around 220-230 so my lay stake has risen to 2.20 - 2.30. The theory here is that on the more successful models i am increasing the stakes and vice versa for the not so strong models.

[thecurlyone1]

Re: Football forecasting system

Honestly i haven't worked on optimizing stakes. For now since i am laying the majority of the time i am by definition exposing myself more when there is more chance of the match going in my favour. So this is the same as betting more when there is more chance of winning. Another part of my betting that i haven't mentioned is that i am betting 1% of a 200 pot for each model. So for Spanish and Italian models over the months i have increased these pots to around 220-230 so my lay stake has risen to 2.20 - 2.30. The theory here is that on the more successful models i am increasing the stakes and vice versa for the not so strong models.[/quote Ok thanks I'm following with great interest

[dalkent]

Re: Football forecasting system Not a bad day. Still heading towards positive. Best start looking at all tomorrows games [TABLE=width: 243]

[TR] [TD]Number of Bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]87[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wins[/TD] [TD=align: right]59[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Win Rate[/TD] [TD=align: right]68%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exposure[/TD] [TD=align: right]£418.41[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]P/L[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£1.54[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ROI[/TD] [TD=align: right]-0.4%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]