Binchy's Stats Adventure

[Binchy]

I have developed this system based on Trainer and Jockey profit/loss (P/L) to level stakes and strike rate over the last 5 years taken from the Racing Post Website. Trainers stats are broken down into three areas (Course, Type of Race and Jockey). This is then broken down further to show the strike rate and P/L in each area (Hurdles, Chase, Bumpers). Jockey stats are shown in the same way, obviously including records for specific trainers. Areas we are interested in are those that have at least 16% strike rate and over +£25 P/L. This should be over at least 20 runs with at least 5 wins (There is a room for a little flexibility). I keep a word document which shows all the areas on interest which is updated monthly. As it would be pretty unrealistic to keep track of all trainers and jockeys, I would estimate I have taken into account the top 50-100 based on this years win to run ratio. I then go through all race cards daily and see if there are any matches. If yes, these will be our selections for the day. Once these have been listed, I then work out how many points to stake on each selection. I will post the stats that back up the selection. I have been running this system for about about 3 weeks now privately and these are the stats so far : Bets - 93 Wins - 20 Staked - 164pts Returned - 273.15pts Profit/Loss : +109.15 Strike Rate - 22% All bets are placed with Bet365 as I find their sight the easiest to use. As all bets are placed the night before racing, there will obviously be some races that are yet to have been priced up. I usually wait until the morning and then take the price available, however for the purposes of this thread, those prices will be taken from betfair. I will start with a bank of 100pts. I will do my best to answer any questions you may have and thank you for any interest you may have. Tomorrows Selections are : 2.20 - Ban - Ciceron 5pts 7/4 (betfair) - Venetia Williams @ Bangor in Chases - (9-38, 24%, +£29.33), Venetia Williams/Liam Treadwell in Chases - (15-52, 29%, +£163) WON +8.75 3.50 - Ban - Turtlethomas 1pt 7/1 - Lawney Hill in Handicap Chases - (27-146, 18%, +£37.85) NOWHERE +7.75 4.10 - Lin - Monsieur Cadou 1pt 6/1 - Tom George/Paddy Brennan in Chases - (66-282, 23%, £37.39) PLACED +6.75 5.20 - Ban - Weigh it Up 2pts 15/2 (betfair) - Phillip Hobbs/Richard Johnson in Bumpers - (24-101, 24%, +£34.27) NOWHERE +4.75 Fingers crossed that we get off to a flying start. Binchy.

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Well at least it wasn't a winnerless start and a small profit to start the thread. Running Stats: Bets : 4 Wins : 1 Staked : 9pts Returned : 13.75pts Profit/Loss : +4.75 Strike Rare : 25% 28/02/2013 2.10 - Tau - Bellflower Boy 2pts 9/2 (Betfair) - Dr Richard Newland in Selling Hurdles - (11-28, 39%, +25.91) 2.30 - Lud - Arthur's Pass 5pts 6/5 - Tom George/Paddy Brennan in Chases - (66-284, 23%, +35.39) 2.40 - Tau - King of Glory 1pt 12/1 (Betfair) - Venetia Williams @ Taunton over Hurdles - (13-52, 25%, +41.60) 3.10 - Tau - Sublime Talent 2pts 9/2 - Evan Williams/Adam Wedge in Chases - (21-110, 19%, +20.25) 3.40 - Tau - Jupiter Rex 4pts 1/2 - Venetia Williams @ Taunton over Hurdles - (13-52, 25%, +41.60) 4.00 - Lud - Kellys Brow 1pt 7/1 - Noel Fehily @ Ludlow over Hurdles - (7-36, 19%, +36.03) 5.10 - Tau - Cuckoo Rock 1pt 5/1 - Gavin Sheehan in Hanicap Hurdles - (14-79, 18%, +34.50)

[jayalexander]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Must take you quite a while to collate all this. Good luck :ok

[egg]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) cracking start today too, 3 winners and a 3rd. good stuff marra

[egg]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) make that 5 winners, 14/1 kellys brow, awesome!!

[bully3061]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Not a bad start :p :ok

[jayalexander]

Arguably the best start I've seen in a system great! I do love stats but find myself mixing them too much with horse form at present and they should be kept separate as you've shown today! By the way, the way you present these stats are very similar to the proform ticker at the bottom of RUK before each race. It's about £500 a year for a sub to proform so you're doing a pretty good job getting the info for free! Hope you had some multiples today :ok

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Well could not have imagined a better start than that, 5 winners out of 7 selections. Your comments are all much appreciated and hopefully we can kick on and go from strength to strength! Jay I had no idea that the information had that kind of value, like I say it is all from the Racing Post website, admittedly you have to be a member to view the stats but it didn't cost me anywhere near that much. It took a while to compile the stats but hopefully it will be worth it. So yesterdays results were as follows : 2.10 - Tau - Bellflower Boy 2pts 9/2 (>Betfair) - Dr Richard Newland in Selling Hurdles - (11-28, 39%, +25.91) WON +9 (Just a side note that I actually got 6/1 on bet365 but for the purposes of this thread I will use the price quoted) 2.30 - Lud - Arthur's Pass 5pts 6/5 - Tom George/Paddy Brennan in Chases - (66-284, 23%, +35.39) WON @ 5/4 +15.25 2.40 - Tau - King of Glory 1pt 12/1 (>Betfair) - Venetia Williams @ Taunton over Hurdles - (13-52, 25%, +41.60) PLACED +14.25 3.10 - Tau - Sublime Talent 2pts 9/2 - Evan Williams/Adam Wedge in Chases - (21-110, 19%, +20.25) WON +23.25 3.40 - Tau - Jupiter Rex 4pts 1/2 - Venetia Williams @ Taunton over Hurdles - (13-52, 25%, +41.60) WON @ 4/6 +25.92 4.00 - Lud - Kellys Brow 1pt 7/1 - Noel Fehily @ Ludlow over Hurdles - (7-36, 19%, +36.03) WON @ 14/1 +39.92 5.10 - Tau - Cuckoo Rock 1pt 5/1 - Gavin Sheehan in Hanicap Hurdles - (14-79, 18%, +34.50) LOST +38.92 Running Stats: Bets : 11 Wins : 6 Staked : 25pts Returned : 68.67pts Profit/Loss : +43.67 Strike Rate : 55%

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) 01/03/2013 1.50 - New - Gassin Golf 2pts 3/1 (Betfair) - Richard Johnson @ Newbury over hurdles - (16-76, 21%, +34.13) 2.10 - Don - Mojolika 2pts 8/1 - Dougie Costello @ Doncaster over hurdles - (10-48, 21%, +58.13) 3.30 - New - Savant Bleu 1pt 7/1 - Timmy Murphy in Handicap Chases - (69-399, 17%, +51.53) 3.50 - Don - Brave Spartacus 3pts 9/4 - Keith Reveley/James Reveley in Chases - (47-253, 19%, 70.91) 4.00 - New - Explained 2pts 4/1 - Richard Johnson @ Newbury over hurdles - (16-76, 21%, +34.13) 4.25 - Don - Cockney Sparrow 3pts 5/4 (Betfair) - John Quinn @ Doncaster over hurdles - (6-28, 21%, +30.33) 5.00 - Don - Boston Blue - 3pts 5/2 (Betfair) - Tony Carroll @ Doncaster over hurdles - (5-27, 19%, +30.50) 5.30 - Don - Dirty Deal - 1pt 10/1 - Tony Carroll @ Doncaster over hurdles - (5-27, 19%, +30.50)

[jayalexander]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) You get a lot more than just stats for the money, but you'd get too bogged down looking at everything. I had it once for a while but didn't think much of it as there's far cheaper ways to get much of the info - it just might take longer! Anyway, keep it up :)

[jayalexander]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Have you considered using one, two or three years worth of records? As you're using five at the moment, it could potentally mean that a trainer had a very high strike percentage five years back and none since. Also, a great time saver for you could be this:

There are several members of PL who already use Horseracebase and I'm sure I speak for them, too, by saying that it can be a great tool as both a system builder and at hunting out those elusive winners. The regular trial period is 3 days. We've got it for people signing up through the PL link for an extra 4 days! Thanks to Paul Ross and the guys over at HRB for allowing this to happen.

http://www.horseracebase.com/punterslounge.php

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Thanks Jay, I will have a look at the link over the weekend and see if it could be of any use, your advice is much apreciated. With regards to the number of years the stats are over, that is something I will look into when I next update the thats, probably in about a weeks time. Without delving further, I am in the mindset at the moment of 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it', but I can see that possibly this would help to iron out some of the losers, so I will definately give it some thought. I am actually also running this system on the AW, which whilst is not doing as well in terms of Profit/Loss, is still running at a nice profit. Anyway, thank you for your interest so far.

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Looked like being an incredibly frustrating day after the first three selections finished a close up second, but turned out profitable again. 01/03/2013 - Results 1.50 - New - Gassin Golf 2pts 3/1 (>Betfair) - Richard Johnson @ Newbury over hurdles - (16-76, 21%, +34.13) Placed -2 2.10 - Don - Mojolika 2pts 8/1 - Dougie Costello @ Doncaster over hurdles - (10-48, 21%, +58.13) Placed -4 3.30 - New - Savant Bleu 1pt 7/1 - Timmy Murphy in Handicap Chases - (69-399, 17%, +51.53) Placed -5 3.50 - Don - Brave Spartacus 3pts 9/4 - Keith Reveley/James Reveley in Chases - (47-253, 19%, 70.91) Won +1.75 4.00 - New - Explained 2pts 4/1 - Richard Johnson @ Newbury over hurdles - (16-76, 21%, +34.13) Lost -0.25 4.25 - Don - Cockney Sparrow 3pts 5/4 (>Betfair) - John Quinn @ Doncaster over hurdles - (6-28, 21%, +30.33) Won (got 7/4 but use 5/4) +3.5 5.00 - Don - Boston Blue - 3pts 5/2 (>Betfair) - Tony Carroll @ Doncaster over hurdles - (5-27, 19%, +30.50) Won (got 7/1 but use 5/2) +11 5.30 - Don - Dirty Deal - 1pt 10/1 - Tony Carroll @ Doncaster over hurdles - (5-27, 19%, +30.50) NR Running Stats: Bets : 18 Wins : 9 Staked : 41pts Returned : 95.67pts Profit/Loss : +54.67 Strike Rate : 50%

[egg]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Binchy, how come you omitted R.Johnson on his 40/1 hurdle winner at Newbury? I actually stuck a little e/w bet on it as you'd flagged his record.

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) 02/02/2013 2.30 - Kel - No Planning 2pts 7/4 - Sue Smith/Ryan Mania in chases - (15-96, 16%, +35.79) 2.40 - New - Desperate Dex 1pt 11/2 - Tom George/Paddy Brennan in chases - (67-286, 23%, +35.64) 3.05 - Kel - King Brex 1pt 12/1 - N W Alexander @ Kelso in chases - (5-29, 17%, +43.00) 3.30 - Don - Eagle Rock 1pt 14/1 - Dougie Costello @ Doncaster over hurdles - (10-50, 20%, +56.13) 3.50 - New - Big Fella Thanks 1pt 12/1 - Tom George/Paddy Brennan in chases - (67-286, 23%, +35.64) 4.05 - Don - Massini Lotto 3pts 9/2 - Dougie Costello @ Doncaster over hurdles - (10-50, 20%, +56.13), for John Quinn over hurdles - (43-224, 19%, +27.01) John Quinn @ Doncaster over hurdles - (7-29, 24%, +32.08 4.15 - Kel - Auroras Encore 1pt 16/1 - Sue Smith/Ryan Mania in chases - (15-96, 16%, +35.79) 5.00 - New - Marie Des Anges 4pts evs - Anthony Honeyball in Handicap chases - (15-53, 28%, +45.50)

[Karijini]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Congrats on such a roaring start to your thread. Long may it continue. Good luck Binchy!

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps)

Binchy' date=' how come you omitted R.Johnson on his 40/1 hurdle winner at Newbury? I actually stuck a little e/w bet on it as you'd flagged his record.[/quote'] Hi Egg, the reason was because Barry Geraghty also had a ride for Nicky Henderson, which is also on the list. Unless I can confidently say one has a better chance than the other, I tend to leave races alone where there is more than one selection. But glad it worked for you mate haha!.

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) 2.30 - Kel - No Planning 2pts 7/4 - Sue Smith/Ryan Mania in chases - (15-96, 16%, +35.79) Won +3.5 2.40 - New - Desperate Dex 1pt 11/2 - Tom George/Paddy Brennan in chases - (67-286, 23%, +35.64) Lost +2.5 3.05 - Kel - King Brex 1pt 12/1 - N W Alexander @ Kelso in chases - (5-29, 17%, +43.00) Lost +1.5 3.30 - Don - Eagle Rock 1pt 14/1 - Dougie Costello @ Doncaster over hurdles - (10-50, 20%, +56.13) Lost +0.5 3.50 - New - Big Fella Thanks 1pt 12/1 - Tom George/Paddy Brennan in chases - (67-286, 23%, +35.64) Placed -0.5 4.05 - Don - Massini Lotto 3pts 9/2 - Dougie Costello @ Doncaster over hurdles - (10-50, 20%, +56.13), for John Quinn over hurdles - (43-224, 19%, +27.01) John Quinn @ Doncaster over hurdles - (7-29, 24%, +32.08 Won +11.65 (rule 4 10p) 4.15 - Kel - Auroras Encore 1pt 16/1 - Sue Smith/Ryan Mania in chases - (15-96, 16%, +35.79) Lost +10.65 5.00 - New - Marie Des Anges 4pts evs - Anthony Honeyball in Handicap chases - (15-53, 28%, +45.50) Won @ 6/4 +16.65 Running Stats: Bets : 26 Wins : 12 Staked : 55pts Returned : 126.32pts Profit/Loss : +71.32 Strike Rate : 46% Another profitable day and it would appear all the stars have aligned and I must have found a four leaf clover somewhere along the way. I was debating as to whether to share this or not because I know it may seem a little hard to believe, but I will. Now, today I placed my bets before putting them up on here, and when coming to give you the stats on here, I noticed that I had wasted four points on combinations which no longer fit my criteria. These two selections were : 1.15 - Don - Themilanhorse 3pts 8/13 5.35 - New - Dubai Kiss 1pt 66/1 Now the first selections came last in a 3 horse race. This horse was chosen due to Ruby's record in novice Chases, which upon checking had gone rapidly downhill in terms of profitability despite still having quite a high s/r. Now, the second selection was due to Aiden Colemans records in bumpers. Upon closer inspection, his stats actually showed the profitable area to be maiden bumpers, which this particular race wasnt. As you probably know, the latter romped home barely coming off the bridle. Like I said, I think I am having all the luck in the world at the moment! Tomorrow's seclection's will be up in the morning.

[egg]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) thought that may have been the case, maybe split stakes. Hard going for any punter today I think so to finish ahead again is great stuff.

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Today Selections : 2.30 - Hunt - Arabian Heights 1pt 16/1 - Robert Thornton in Maiden Hurdles (36-142, 25%, +27.21) 2.50 - Sed - Gulf Punch 1pt 16/1 - Henry Brooke @ Sedgefield over hurdles (8-34, 24%, +58.95) 4.50 - Sed - Milan Royale 1pt 9/2 - Malcolm Jefferson/Harry Haynes in chases (12-73, 16%, +69.00) 5.00 - Hunt - Soixante Six 1pt 12/1 - Robert Thornton in Maiden Hurdles (36-142, 25%, +27.21) 5.20 - Sed - Sleep in First 2pts 5/2 - Brian Hughes @ Sedgefield in chases (19-94, 20%, +48.74)

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Today Selections : 2.30 - Hunt - Arabian Heights 1pt 16/1 - Robert Thornton in Maiden Hurdles (36-142, 25%, +27.21) Lost -1 2.50 - Sed - Gulf Punch 1pt 16/1 - Henry Brooke @ Sedgefield over hurdles (8-34, 24%, +58.95) Lost -2 4.50 - Sed - Milan Royale 1pt 9/2 - Malcolm Jefferson/Harry Haynes in chases (12-73, 16%, +69.00) Won @ 5/1 +3 5.00 - Hunt - Soixante Six 1pt 12/1 - Robert Thornton in Maiden Hurdles (36-142, 25%, +27.21) Lost +2 5.20 - Sed - Sleep in First 2pts 5/2 - Brian Hughes @ Sedgefield in chases (19-94, 20%, +48.74) Won +7 Running Stats: Bets : 31 Wins : 14 Staked : 61pts Returned : 139.32pts Profit/Loss : +78.32 Strike Rate : 45%

[jayalexander]

Nice results today. You checked that link yet? Trust me, it's gonna save you lots of time! Sent from my GT-P3110 using PL Forum

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Tomorrows Selections: 3.25 - Ffo - Tarkari 1pt 9/2 - Evan Williams/Adam Wedge in chases (22-111, 20%, +23.58) 4.35 - Ffo - Trojan Sun 3pts 11/8 - Tom Symonds/Felix De Giles in chases (5-26, 19%, +42.50) 4.50 - Sou - Samizdat 1pt 33/1 - Gavin Sheehan in Handicaps over hurdles (14-80, 18%, +33.50) 5.40 - Ffo - Western Jo 2pts 6/4 (Betfair) - Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson in bumpers (24-103, 23%, +32.27)

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps)

Nice results today. You checked that link yet? Trust me, it's gonna save you lots of time! Sent from my GT-P3110 using PL Forum

Yes Jay I have had a look and could see it may be useful. At first glance it doesn't look compatible with my system as certain categories do not seem to be available. It doesn't take as long as you may think, it only takes me around an hour a day to sort out and I quite enjoy trawling through the racecards, but I appreciate your help nevertheless.

[jtw1]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Fantastic start to a very interesting system , i love a stat or two myself and realise how much work your putting in ... :clap As much as Jay is trying to help , i think your right in sticking to your rules .. all the best mate :ok

[mister magoo]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Great start...youve even got fans in Australia...

[Pirate53]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Been following this since day 3. Nice one Binchy.

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) 3.25 - Ffo - Tarkari 1pt 9/2 - Evan Williams/Adam Wedge in chases (22-111, 20%, +23.58) Lost -1 4.35 - Ffo - Trojan Sun 3pts 11/8 - Tom Symonds/Felix De Giles in chases (5-26, 19%, +42.50) Placed -4 4.50 - Sou - Samizdat 1pt 33/1 - Gavin Sheehan in Handicaps over hurdles (14-80, 18%, +33.50) Lost -5 5.40 - Ffo - Western Jo 2pts 6/4 (>Betfair) - Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson in bumpers (24-103, 23%, +32.27) Won -2 Running Stats: Bets : 35 Wins : 15 Staked : 68pts Returned : 144.32pts Profit/Loss : +76.32 Strike Rate : 43%

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Tomorrow Selections : 2.50 - Newc - Rebel Swing 1pt 10/1 - Sue Smith/Ryan Mania in chases (16-98, 16%, +35.79) 3.30 - Exe - Sea Saffron 1pt 9/1 - Sue Gardner in handicap chases (9-37, 24%, +24.70) 3.50 - News - King's Chorister 4/1 - Barry Murtagh/Lucy Alexander over hurdles (10-56, 18%, +49.08)

[mattyrobinson]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Great thread Binchy! How are you determining how many points to stake on each selection?