Solar Flare Market PaddyPower

[Tanos]

PaddyPower are currently offering 16/1 that in 2013 we record the largest ever geomagnetic storm. There is big activity going on on the Sun right now and the record may be broken in the next few days depending on the development of 2 Jupiter sized sunspots that are just coming into Earth's view. In the last hour the % chance of an X-Class flare was 51% which if it were to happen could create a huge geomagnetic storm comparable to the 'Carrington Event' Of course it may well peter out, but this is the year of the Suns maximum activity so as good a year as any! http://lasp.colorado.edu/eve/data_access/quicklook/quicklook_data/L0CS/latest_sam.png http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_1600.jpg http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_2048_HMIIC.jpg

[froment]

Re: Solar Flare Market PaddyPower What a strange market... :loon

this is the year of the Suns maximum activity so as good a year as any!

But it's not any maximum activity, it's maximum activity within 11-year cycle of the Sun - solar activity gradually rises and declines within period of 11 years, so there is the lowest peak and the highest peak within that period. Periods have been recorded since 1755, and we are currently in the mid of 24th cycle; it started at lowest peak in early 2008, so its maximum is expected in mid 2013. However, I believe meaning of this market bet at Paddy is that maximum solar activity this year should exceed the previous 23 peaks. So, astronomers expect this year to have increased solar activity, but it's usual every 11 years; I'm more or less regular on astronomy news, and I haven't noticed some specific worries about sun activity higher than expected; in fact, one of recent articles on that topic expects the peak to be lower than usual: http://www.space.com/19131-sun-solar-space-weather-2013.html I'd rather say it's just media impact; world is nowadays full of cataclysmic prophecies, so public tends to overreact on news that are beyond everyday experience. If you want to read more about solar cycle we're currently in before , Wikipedia has pretty extensive article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24 They say "According to NASA, the intensity of geomagnetic storms during Solar Cycle 24 may be elevated in some areas where the Earth's magnetic field is weaker than expected."; however, sources they quote for this conclusion are as old as from 2010; expectations have been corrected in the meantime, so most recent prediction from NASA, published a week ago, even predicts that cycle 24 should be the lowest one since 1906: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml In my opinion, there is no huge value in this 16/1 at PP, except as a fun bet, but good luck if you take it! :ok

[Tanos]

Re: Solar Flare Market PaddyPower Sorry yeah I should have been more clear in stating it's within a cycle rather than maximum activity in recorded history. I just want to clarify aswell that the info I have looked through is from proper scientific sources and not places like the DailyMail. I completely see your point though that shock reporting and lazy prophecy journalism doesn't help! I put a cheeky bet on today after seeing some activity on the suns equator that will come into view properly in the next few days, and can be assessed and categorised thoroughly. Either way it's a year long bet that's a bit of fun! Thanks for the reply too, must admit I didn't expect to get one!