2013 BDO World Championship

[RussP]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship Patchy for me too but Jenno & George/Hendriks win for me. Standing at +20.84pts going into the business end of the tournament and with 1 outright still running. Good luck guys.

[Lionrock]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

Jason Cullen vs Paul Jennings Jennings over 4.5 180s 4/5 skybet i have been impressed with him in the tournament he has been scoring heavily and with the 7 sets i think he can get quite a few

sorry for the aftertiming! but how could you even possibly look at this bet when could have had evens on jennings most 180s???? Which, cheers to the gang for advising and posting, was the bet of the night!

[kevshat]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 10 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Player 1 [/TH] [TH]Player 2[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Fitton, D v Harms, W (18:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.95 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.06 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.83 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Green, R v O'Shea, T (20:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.78 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.57 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.61 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 11 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Player 1 [/TH] [TH]Player 2[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] George, R v Dekker, J (17:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.01 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Jennings, P v Waites, S (17:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.28 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.85 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[kevshat]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship Thursday QF previews: 4pts D.Fitton vs W.Harms - Over 7.5 sets 5/6 Skybet Both men have been through a deciding set in this tournament already and I fancy they could have to go through another one here. This looks as tight as any match this week to me. Both are excellent players and if I had to nail my colours to the mast I would side with Harms but I don’t expect either to run away with this so the over 7.5 sets looks the obvious call to me here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/fitton-vs-harms-betting-opening-quarter-final-could-turn-into-a-lakeside-epic 4pts T.O'Shea (-1.5 sets) to beat R.Green 10/11 Bet365 These two have played four times in the past and O’Shea has won all four times and the reason for that is how solid and confident he is on the doubles. There will be legs where Kong outscores O’Shea, not many but some, but as the pressure escalates Kong’s doubles tend to evaporate so I expect O’Shea to make a bit of a donkey out of Kong for a fifth time in five meetings. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/green-vs-o-shea-betting-tony-o-shea-can-make-it-through-to-another-lakeside-semi-at-the-expense-of-green

[Decic]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship O'Shea v Green O'Shea to beat Green @ 1.45 Betfair Quarter final match up of the 2013 BDO World Darts Championship sees BDO number 1 ranked player Tony O'Shea taking on number 7 Robbie Green. These two have had similar journeys to the quarter finals with only one set difference between the two. Green knocked out defending champion Kist in the first round 3-1 and had a similarly easy victory against Mitchell 4-1. O'Shea in his first two rounds didn't mess around with a 3-0 and 4-1 victory. The head to head record between these two is owned by O'Shea, they've met 4 times in the last 4 years and O'Shea has come away with the money on each occasion. O'Shea has ventured to the final here in both 2009 and 2012 while Green best result is this year making the quarters. Prior to that his best result was the Last 16 in 2011 and 2012. I think O'Shea will have too much class here, a player who has been to this stage numerous times with a fantastic record against his opposition will just have enough to record the victory and move into the semi finals.

[fishy25]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship Onto the quarter finals then and I'm effectively on Harms to win at 4/1 tonight so hopefully he can make it through to the semis again. Most of my interest comes in that game with a few bets and then 1 in the O'Shea-Green match as well. Darryl Fitton (-2.5 180's) vs Wesley Harms- 5/6 Blue Square- (3.5/10) Wesley Harms Under 4.5 180's- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Over 7.5 Sets- 4/5 BetVictor- (4/10) Highest Checkout Over 130.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Taking a fair few in the opener but all of them do look good to me in all honesty. I hope Harms pulls through in the end but whoever wins, I expect an extremely close encounter. Harms has started both of his previous games pretty slowly in truth before finding his range in the latter stages of matches and he can't really afford to that today as Fitton is going to outscore him for the majority. The thing the Dutchman has to do in hit his doubles and that is where he is the better player. Fitton can score and score and although he's not really showed it so far, his doubles are really streaky and despite hitting them against Stephen Bunting, you'd be a brave man to back him repeating those doubling efforts. They've both had some tight matches already this year on the Lakeside stage and whoever comes out triumphant, I think they will do it no better than 5-3. Like I've said, Fitton will outscore Harms for the majority you fancy and he is by far the most prolific 180 scorer out of the two which makes me think the 2 180 lines are a little misplaced. In the previous round, Fitton hit 6 180's, and 5 in the game before that compared to Harms' 3 in both games. That tells it's own story and Fitton has showed on this stage before that he can make 180 hitting look dead easy, reaching double figures in the past. Wesley Harms has never managed more than 4 maximums at Lakeside, and that included an 11 set thriller against Tony O'Shea last year. We're not getting that many sets tonight so I don't see Harms hitting anymore than 4 maximums, and regardless of how many he does managed, I fancy Fitton to have hit at least 3 more. I have to fancy the overs in the checkout market as well given just how well Harms has finished his combination finishes thus far. In the first round, he hit a 140 finish and against Alan Norris, he hit checkouts of 147 and 150 which shows just how well he is nailing these finishes. This line is set way below any of those 3 finishes, and with the prospect of Fitton landing a decent one as well, I have to favour the overs. Tony O'Shea (-1.5 sets) to beat Robbie Green- Evens Ladbrokes- (4/10) I can't really add much to what has been said already. The H2H speaks for itself here with O'Shea winning on all 4 occasions. Whilst Robbie Green has won both of his matches comfortably, in the latter parts of the match against Scott Mitchell, he was missing a lot of doubles and even his heavy scoring was found wanting. He simply can't afford to do either of those things today as O'Shea will be able to score well you fancy whilst his finishes is far better. In parts, Green will be outscoring Silverback, I think that's a given, but as the match goes on, I expect O'Shea to continue to be the more consistent of the two. On the doubles especially he should be more solid and I think he'll come through this without dropping more than 3 sets and hopefully set up a repeat semi final of 12 months ago against Wesley Harms.

[doe_a_deer]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

4pts T.O'Shea (-1.5 sets) to beat R.Green 10/11 Bet365 These two have played four times in the past and O’Shea has won all four times and the reason for that is how solid and confident he is on the doubles. There will be legs where Kong outscores O’Shea, not many but some, but as the pressure escalates Kong’s doubles tend to evaporate so I expect O’Shea to make a bit of a donkey out of Kong for a fifth time in five meetings. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/green-vs-o-shea-betting-tony-o-shea-can-make-it-through-to-another-lakeside-semi-at-the-expense-of-green

Kev, can I ask why you so regularly pitch these types of bets at the minus 1.5 sets mark? I noticed you do this a lot in the PDC World Champs as well. So, I'm talking about bets where you fancy one player to be slightly too good for the other in a relatively close game odds-wise. You obviously have a full choice of handicaps from, say -3.5 all the way through to +1.5, and the straightforward match betting, why do you favour -1.5 so much, over say a simple bet on the match winner. Is there a statistical reason behind this decision?

[doe_a_deer]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

Eh? You don't like guaranteed, free money? Are you being serious?

Well obviously I do but I never lay my picks/bets off ever. It's the same when I have the chance to lay one of my outrights for a guaranteed profit but I never do. I like to stick with my instinct and let them ride, for better or worse and tonight it was the former. Just my way of doing things Sorry to seem like I'm dragging this up again, it's not that, I just haven't been on here for several days to respond. I don't think the two things you're comparing are the same at all. If you place a bet and then that bet starts to go well, obviously you will have a wide range of times and prices where you can lay that bet off to guarantee a profit, all the way up from 1p guaranteed. There is still the risk of the original bet going wrong though. In this case however, the prices offered before the event guaranteed us a profit, without any risk, so I don't see why you'd ignore that? I don't know how much money you bet on the event as that's personal, but why risk say £10, to win £25, on one outcome out of a possible three, when you could just bet on all three in such a way as to guarantee yourself the £25 win? You've always seemed like one of the more intelligent posters on here, so I'm pretty baffled at what I'm reading from you with regards to this. A lot of people on here go on about how you have to find any smidgen of 'value' in order to beat the bookmakers - surely you can't get any more value than risk-free, guaranteed money? I'd assume most shrewd gamblers on here would agree with me, but I worry that some people may take your side just because you have more posts than me and are a more well-known, trusted name on here. I suppose in simple terms my question to you is why risk money to win money, when you could guarantee the same amount risk-free?

[Merc]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

why do you favour -1.5 so much' date=' over say a simple bet on the match winner. Is there a statistical reason behind this decision?[/quote'] This is an easy one. -1.5 has simply better odds than the match winner. O'Shea @ ~1.50 is also a nice odd but to gain as much profit with this kind of odds, you have to stake a lot more units.

[kevshat]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

Kev, can I ask why you so regularly pitch these types of bets at the minus 1.5 sets mark? I noticed you do this a lot in the PDC World Champs as well. So, I'm talking about bets where you fancy one player to be slightly too good for the other in a relatively close game odds-wise. You obviously have a full choice of handicaps from, say -3.5 all the way through to +1.5, and the straightforward match betting, why do you favour -1.5 so much, over say a simple bet on the match winner. Is there a statistical reason behind this decision?

If I take a player on the -1.5 handicap it's because I think they'll win relatively comfortably such as tonight where I fully believe O'Shea will win 5-1 or 5-2.

[doe_a_deer]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

If I take a player on the -1.5 handicap it's because I think they'll win relatively comfortably such as tonight where I fully believe O'Shea will win 5-1 or 5-2.

You've just contradicted yourself though. If you 'fully believe' O'Shea will win 5-1 or 5-2 then why are you not betting on the -2.5 handicap? Or even 5-1 and 5-2 correct scores? The question still stands, why pitch the bet at -1.5 sets?

[doe_a_deer]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

This is an easy one. -1.5 has simply better odds than the match winner. O'Shea @ ~1.50 is also a nice odd but to gain as much profit with this kind of odds' date=' you have to stake a lot more units.[/quote'] Right, but by that logic, why not bet on -2.5 because the odds are even better? Or -3.5 because the odds are better still?

[kevshat]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

You've just contradicted yourself though. If you 'fully believe' O'Shea will win 5-1 or 5-2 then why are you not betting on the -2.5 handicap? Or even 5-1 and 5-2 correct scores? The question still stands, why pitch the bet at -1.5 sets?

Because I'm not greedy.

[doe_a_deer]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

Because I'm not greedy.

That still doesn't explain it though. If you're not greedy why not just bet on the match win? Or even a +1.5 handicap? I'm just trying to get some help from you as an expert, why do you favour -1.5?

[fishy25]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

That still doesn't explain it though. If you're not greedy why not just bet on the match win? Or even a +1.5 handicap? I'm just trying to get some help from you as an expert' date=' why do you favour -1.5?[/quote'] Basically what you find to aim for is the best value (usually highest value) for the 'safest' bet you can find or think is going to happen. Now when I say 'safe', there are no 'safe' bets, only ones which you think are more probable to happen hence the higher stakes. If we take the O'Shea match as an example tonight. Kev clearly thinks O'Shea is going to win but match odds of 1.50 are pretty low, meaning high stakes are required to make a decent profit. The handicap line gives odds closer to the evens mark, which is a way of doubling the stake put down. It also is far 'safer' than the handicap of the (-2.5) or higher lines. Although we think O'Shea may win pretty comfortably, this line gives a little bit more room for error should O'Shea win 5-3 for example. The price may not be as good, but the chance of it coming through substantially increases. Although your argument that the (+1.5) line would have a higher chance of winning, the odds are reflected on this point and you would have to put some a massive stake to get any substantial profit.

[kevshat]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

That still doesn't explain it though. If you're not greedy why not just bet on the match win? Or even a +1.5 handicap? I'm just trying to get some help from you as an expert' date=' why do you favour -1.5?[/quote'] I favour a -1.5 handicap over a -2.5 handicap because whether you throw first or second a -1.5 set handicap is only one break of throw. If you throw second and take a -2.5 handicap then you need two breaks of throw which makes it more difficult to win and the risk is a lot bigger. While I accept every bet is a risk I try to take as much of the risk out of it as possible while at the same time trying to get a price which I feel reflects the risk I'm taking.

[RussP]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship I think Kev & Fishy have explained it perfectly :ok. Anyway back to the betting and 1 for me in the 2nd QF. T.O'Shea v R.Green, under 31.5 legs, 6pts @ 5/6 William Hill I think the more consistent finishing of O'Shea will play its part here. Looking back at number of darts to win a leg, it's highly likely that Robbie Green will need to finish many legs inside 15 legs, something he doesn't often do. 31 legs looks a high line for me especially when you consider we could actually get the full 9 sets and still bring the line in (albeit unlikely). In O'Shea's last match against Douglas, a 4-1 win was gained in just 16 legs, obviously meaning 4 of the 5 sets were unanswered. If that happens, then we really are counting the cash and if, on top of that, this is won inside 7 or 8 sets, I think this is the bet of the night.

[doe_a_deer]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

I favour a -1.5 handicap over a -2.5 handicap because whether you throw first or second a -1.5 set handicap is only one break of throw. If you throw second and take a -2.5 handicap then you need two breaks of throw which makes it more difficult to win and the risk is a lot bigger. While I accept every bet is a risk I try to take as much of the risk out of it as possible while at the same time trying to get a price which I feel reflects the risk I'm taking.

Firstly, I'm not saying you're wrong in all of this Kev, but we seem to have slightly conflicting views here, so I'm just wondering which one of us is missing out on value. Looking back over this thread and the PDC World Champs thread, you always seem to be pitching your bets at around 5/6 or better, whereas a lot of the time, I'll be of the same opinion as to which player to bet on, but I'll be pitching my bets at somewhere between 1/6 and 1/2. So, for example last night, we both thought de Vos was overpriced, you (effectively) took him to win 2 sets at 6/4 (ruling out 4-1 and 4-0 de Vos as well), others on here took him to win the match at 4/1 and 9/2, whereas I took him to win one set at 2/7. Then tonight, you took O'Shea (-1.5) at 10/11, whereas I just took O'Shea to win at 1/2. Going through the PDC thread as well, there are numerous occasions where you were in on (-1.5) handicap at 5/6 and 10/11 and so on, whereas I'd just be on the match win at 4/9 or something like that. Is one of us missing out on value or do you think we'll both be making roughly the same in the long run? How could we test this? We're both effectively betting on the same thing, but I'm pitching my bets at much safer odds, whereas you're obviously losing more often but winning more money when you do win. Do you think I would get better value taking the type of odds you take and am I currently trying too hard to win every single bet rather than looking at the maximum long term profit? Thanks for your help. This seems like an interesting debate to me, but as you're something of a gambling expert you've probably considered and worked all of this out a long time ago and I'm way behind the times. :lol

[fishy25]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship Things were going perfectly at one point tonight until Harms suddenly thought he was a 180 machine and rattled them off like they were going out of fashion. He did win though meaning he brought through the quarter bet, as well as keeping the outright going and O'Shea's win meant it was a slightly profitable night, taking me up to +19.27 for the tournament.

[kevshat]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship Friday night previews: 4pts R.George vs J.Dekker - Over 7.5 sets 11/10 Paddy Power This match will all boil down to how well Richie George hits his doubles because he will outscore Dekker for large periods. If he hits to a fair percentage then he’ll win but if he doesn’t expect Dekker to edge him out. Whichever way it does go though I expect there to be plenty of mileage in this match and I wouldn’t rule out Dekker going to a deciding set for the third time in the tournament. At odds against I like over 7.5 sets as this looks a very close game on paper just like when they met in the Zuiderduin Masters which finished 5-4 to George. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/george-vs-dekker-betting-two-young-stars-can-play-out-another-close-match-just-like-in-zuiderduin 4pts P.Jennings (+2.5 sets) to beat S.Waites Evs Coral I think this will be a cracking quarter final. Paul Jennings is playing lovely darts and I think he can really challenge Waites here and the further he takes this quarter final the more chance he has of winning it. Waites has been missing doubles all tournament and gives off the impression of a man who knows the pressure is on him so with no pressure I think Jennings can at least run Waites close if not beat him. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/jennings-vs-waites-betting-paul-jennings-is-confident-enough-to-push-waites-all-the-way-at-lakeside

[owenclass]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship Paul Jennings vs Scott Waites Jennings most 180s 7/4 skybet jennings has impressed me this tournament where he has been scoring heavily his opponent has been playing well but not getting as many of the big scores Richie George vs Jan Dekker George to get more 180s 4/7 skybet been scoring more heavily

[KautoStar666]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

Paul Jennings vs Scott Waites Jennings most 180s 7/4 skybet jennings has impressed me this tournament where he has been scoring heavily his opponent has been playing well but not getting as many of the big scores Richie George vs Jan Dekker George to get more 180s 4/7 skybet been scoring more heavily

Jennings has had 8, 180's Waites has had 6, 180's Waites has had more 100's and better still more 140's.... They could easily turn into 180's. Id be avoiding that line, in that match, but good luck. The Richie George shout is a far better option, hes hit 11, 180's to Dekkers 5. George has also hit more 100's and the same amount of 140's.

[CobraCraig]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship I look at the Waites-Jennings game and like many think That Jennings has a good chance to take this match into 8 sets,But i looked closer into there last 16's games and even though Jennings barely missed a double and Waites was awful early on against De Vos,Waites still averaged more.Now for me the only way is up for Waites on the doubles and the only way is down for Jennings. In the last couple of sets Waites was banging in 140's for fun and looked to have fire in his belly.If he brings that into this game i think he wins easily.Even though he only scored 1 180 in his previous match he was all over that treble 20 towards the end and i think he will hit plenty of maximums Waites to win 1/4 Waites -2.5 to win 5/6 Waites to win 5-1 7/2 Waites more 180's 8/11 Waites over 5.5 180's 5/6 The first game see's Richie George against Jan Dekker,Richie has hit the higher averages this tournament but Jan has the knack for hitting crucial doubles when his opponent misses.I see this being a close game and i think Richie might just nick it but im going to play safe because if this goes to a deciding set which it might do Jan seems fearless under pressure,so im gonna go for Richie George +1.5 sets. George +1.5 sets 4/6 I would also like to say that yesterdays quarter finals were compariable to some of the quarter finals in the PDC.This tournament does have its knockers and rightly so but i thought yesterday was a good night for BDO darts.It might be better for this tournament to reduce back down to 16 to try and improve on the quality becuase there is some half decent players that play in the BDO but are sometimes brought down by sub-standard opponents.

[fishy25]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship I'm running really short on time as I'm off to the cinema so gunna do my bets pretty quickly and briefly so apologies in advance. Richie George vs Jan Dekker- Over 7.5 Sets- 5/6 BetVictor- (4/10) Richie George Over 5.5 180's- Evens Blue Square- (4/10) Richie George (-1.5 180's) vs Jan Dekker- 6/5 Blue Square- (3/10) I can't see anything other than a close battle between these two guys. They've both played out a couple of thrillers on the Lakeside stage in reaching the quarters, as well as playing out a close match between one another in the Zuiderduin Masters. George should score the better of the two but you'd have to say Dekker's finishing is better which should mean this one has some legs on it and is close for the majority meaning we'll see at least 8 sets. George should be doing most of the heavy scoring you feel. Against Hendriks, his scoring was as good as anyone over the past week or so, and he hit 8 maximums in just 6 sets. We should get at least 8 tonight and in that time, it would surprise me if Richie didn't hit at least 6, which is less than a set on average which he should be above. The 180 handicap bets really haven't done me any favours over the past few weeks but the price here is too good to turn down. I've mentioned George's heavy scoring stats, whilst Dekker has managed just the 5 180's in his two matches including 2 in 7 sets against Garry Thompson so it's clear who the heavier scorer of the two are and George looks good value to me to hit at least a couple more maximums than the Dutchman tonight. Scott Waites vs Paul Jennings- Over 7.5 Sets- 5/4 Blue Square- (3/10) Paul Jennings (Most 180's) vs Scott Waites- 15/8 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Highest Checkout Over 130.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Again can't help but feel this one could have some distance on it as well. Favouring the overs on the sets rather than the Jennings handicap purely because of the price but I do expect both to come through. The slight risk with the sets is if Waites doesn't get 3 sets but I'd be surprised if he didn't really and I think Jennings will to. Waites' results look better than they actually are in truth and they flatter him somewhat. He has been missing quite a few doubles but fortunately for him so have his opponents so far and that as allowed him to win comfortably in the end. Jennings has been finishing well all tournament though and against Jason Cullen he was on fire with his doubles and if he does that tonight, he'll have more than a chance of winning this I think but I think we'll see at least 8 sets regardless of the winner. Jenno has scored well all tournament and is as heavy scorer as any in the BDO ranks really which makes him value to hit more 180's here. He has managed 8 180's so far, whilst Waites has hit just the 6 and Jennings will know he will have to score well tonight if he is to have chances as Waites will score well. A bit like his doubles though, when Jennings hits a hot patch, he can hit a few 180's in as many legs and at this price, I have to have a punt on him to win the 180 battle. Both can hit the combination finishes as they've shown this week so the checkout line looks again low to me. Jennings hit that 144 in the opening game which shows he can nail these finishes and usually Waites hits a couple of decent finishes in his game so expect a decent checkout in this one in all honesty.

[kevshat]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship Semi final previews: 4pts S.Waites (-3.5 sets) to beat R.George 10/11 Boylesports Scott Waites hasn’t looked fantastic this week but he has looked solid enough and I expect him to win this match with plenty to spare unless Richie George can put it all to one side and let the darts flow without the pressure of who he is and what he’s trying to achieve. In a way the fact literally nobody expects him to win here could help him. Against Dekker he was expected to win by a few people but here nobody will expect him to win so that is to his advantage but I expect Waites to be too good. George hasn’t been near a 90 average this week and that’s the minimum he’ll need here you would think. Waites for me and quite comfortably. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/george-vs-waites-betting-scott-waites-should-be-too-good-for-bobby-s-boy-in-lakeside-semi 5pts T.O'Shea vs W.Harms - Over 9.5 sets 11/10 Paddy Power Every angle I look at this match from I just can’t see a way that this won’t be close. The semi final between these two ended 6-5 last year and while this one may not go all the way, although I wouldn’t rule it out, I certainly think we’ll see a tenth set in this match because they are both so evenly matched. Both score solidly and both are good around the doubles and I’d be amazed if this doesn’t end 6-4 or 6-5 either way. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/harms-vs-o-shea-betting-second-semi-final-has-the-makings-of-going-all-the-way-for-the-second-year-running

[fishy25]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship Didn't see any of the games tonight so can't comment but looks like George fell 1 180 short of the line whilst Dekker decided tonight was the night he was a 180 train which is annoying. Anastasia is through to the final though with Kev's pick as well which is good for the thread. Slight profit thanks to Jennings hitting more 180's though, and it takes me to +20.72 going into the final weekend of World Championship darts.

[RussP]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship 2 for the first semi. W.Harms, most 180's v T.O'Shea, 3pts @ 11/4 Ladbrokes W.Harms, highest checkout v T.O'Shea, 6pts @ Evs Coral Harms has been getting better and better this week, and that may enough to see him win 2 of the scoring markets. He's checked out 140+ in each of his 3 matches so far whilst O'Shea has managed that just once. In fact, his other 2 matches have seen high finishes of 100 and 80-odd. In respect of the maximums, O'Shea did hit 8 versus Harms 6 in the last round, albeit playing 2 extra legs but it's the mismatched price that makes appeal. 11/4 in a 3 horse (with tie) market is crazy and he's certainly got more chance than that. In rounds 1&2, Harms hit 3 and 2 whilst O'Shea hit 5 and 1. Should be a cracking match too.

[CobraCraig]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship Got to say i agree with kev on his bets and id also tip Wes Harms to beat O'Shea at 6/5.I just think he had an extra gear against Fitton and he looks so cool under pressure.Tony sometimes gives away sets and he cant afford to do this against Harms.I slightly favour Harms to win and at odds against he looks a good bet. I was also thinking of backing Waites to win the 180 battle at 8/11 but he has let me down in his last 2 games,he is smashing in the 140's but not the 180's.He will probably smash in the 180's tonight but im gonna stay away from this bet. Waites 1/6 Waites -3.5 sets 10/11 Waites to win 6-1 4/1 Harms 6/5 Harms +1.5 4/6 Harms to win 6-4 15/2 over 9.5 sets 11/10

[fishy25]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship Not exactly sure of the order of play today so I'm just putting all my bets up. Effectively on Harms to beat O'Shea at 8/1 and Anastasia to win the women's final at 10/3 so hopefully they can both pull through. Taking a few others as well in what should be cracking viewing today. Tony O'Shea vs Wesley Harms- Under 13.5 180's- 10/11 Boylesports- (3/10) Harms Highest Checkout- Evens Boylesports- (3/10) Highest Checkout Over 132.5- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Hopefully the Dutchman can make amends for his narrow defeat at this stage last year and if he continues playing the way he is, he has every chance here. It should be a close affair you fancy, but the 180's line looks high to me. I know Harms really upped his scoring against Darryl Fitton, hitting 6 180's in that game but you have to wonder if that was just a one off. Perhaps it wasn't however and even if he did manage a similar number today, it would still require Tony O'Shea to hit 8 himself which although he managed against Robbie Green, he didn't manage that number at all 12 months ago nor has he hit as many 180's this year. When these two played last year in that close semi final, there were only 10 180's that day in 11 sets of darts so to me this line looks a bit high. Also completely agreed with Russ on the checkout front. Harms has been finishing this combination finishes for fun so quite how he warrants the underdog status in this market baffles me. He's hit finishes of 140 and 150 amongst a few others whilst I think O'Shea has managed just the one high finish of 161 but hasn't too much else to show. Harms has to be the favourite in my eyes to hit the biggest finish and that finish I expect to be higher than the line has it here given his recent few matches. Scott Waites (-3.5 sets) to beat Richie George- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Highest Checkout Over 130.5- 8/11 Boylesports- (4/10) Kev has really said all there is that needs to be mentioned about this one. It would be an absolute fairy tale if Richie George could reach the final on debut but I don't see it happening. He will need to add at least 5 points to his average here if he is to trouble Waites and I don't know if he has that game in him at the minute. Waites will average low 90's you fancy, no lower and will hit his doubles better than Richie despite Waites being a little clumsy on them this week. He'll always score well though and with the possibility that Richie might be a little fatigued from that game against Dekker last night, think Waites will make it through to the final with plenty to spare. Again I'm taking the overs in the checkout market. Waites hit a 152 yesterday as well as a couple of other decent finishes as well and he is always likely to take out a big one. George has also taken out a few 100+ checkouts as well and somewhere along the line I expect one of these two guys to take out a sizeable finish.

[fishy25]

Re: 2013 BDO World Championship And just the one final bet for me in the women's final. Anastasia Dobromyslova (Highest Checkout) vs Lisa Ashton- 3/4 Boylesports- (3/10) Quite like the Russian's chances in this market. For me she should be the one who settled the better of the two as she's been in the final before and already this week she has taken out some decent finishes. A 144 checkout to win her first match and finishes like that aren't uncommon for the Russian given just how talented she is. Ashton's highest finish this week has been 120 but I think with the occasion, the Russian will settle the better and deal with the nerves better and taken out the biggest finish in the game here.