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West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December

Aidymac

By Aidymac
in Premier League Predictions

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Aidymac

Aidymac

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[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn]West Ham v Everton (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.09 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December

Everton again look extremely poor value at below three. I don't know what's happened with their odds but I don't think they should be favourites away to any team in this league. Massive lay for me.
Some shots on target stats I have for both teams suggest the opposite - they would have Everton as strong favourites here and good value at 2.4, strange as it might seem. As far as I'm aware, Everton have been playing well but failed to turn their good performances into wins, especially away from home - apparently they should really have won a lot of their away games (including Wigan, Fulham and Reading I think). I would have thought West Ham will have a tough time beating them, even without Fellaini.
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WillberforeTheThird

WillberforeTheThird

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December Their is value in backing a West Ham win at 3.2 - West Ham have the same probability as Everton of a win at 37%. Last season resulted in 2 draws between the sides, recently Everton have been struggling to score more than one goal whilst away and West Ham have been strong at home beating Chelsea 3-2.

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Jase82

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Some shots on target stats I have for both teams suggest the opposite - they would have Everton as strong favourites here and good value at 2.4' date=' strange as it might seem. As far as I'm aware, Everton have been playing well but failed to turn their good performances into wins, especially away from home - apparently they should really have won a lot of their away games (including Wigan, Fulham and Reading I think). I would have thought West Ham will have a tough time beating them, even without Fellaini.[/quote'] I like looking at shots on or at goal myself as you can sometimes gauge how much attacking play was involved when looking at one team or the other. You are right in saying Everton "should" have won more games. The fact is unfortunately they're one of the most wasteful teams in the EPL. If they create ten and allow the opposition five shots at goal, yet still lose or draw I don't see how that's reason enough to back them. If just to me suggests they need twice the amount of chances that an average side would create in order to, well, get very little. Which means they need to create even more chances to win away than they normally would... Or score one of their chances and learn how to close a game out :lol You can argue that a side that have created lots and failed to convert chances are "due" a game where they score them all and win comfortably. But that for me is similar to saying a side that haven't won in ten are "due" a win. And that's not how I like to bet :ok otherwise you could end up backing Everton every game in the hope that maybe this next time they'll turn chances into goals... It's like backing Liverpool each week blindly at their awful odds... You'll never get real value, and I stand by what I say about their price. The main issues for me are the absences of Diame and Carroll for West Ham. But even Everton without Fellaini are half a team IMO.
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Samba_SamPa

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December You can't back us (Everton) as favourites away anywhere, just like you can't back us at home to poor teams at long odds on, just like you can't oppose us when we play a 'big' team. Fact is we're plenty good enough that we can get a result against ANY of the Premiership teams, any of them, and have proved so many times. Fact is also that we're nowhere near clinical enough to finish off as many games against 'smaller' teams as we should. But we've been like that for years, it's nothing new. I'd imagine laying the favourites in any Everton game would be close to being a profitable blind system. I don't think missing Fellaini is as devastating to our cohesion as a team as you do, Jase. I've seen every Everton game this season, except, ironically, for the derby, and he's a lazy fecker imo. What he does well gets picked up on by the media this season it seems, and overhyped, but what he doesn't do is plentiful, and having somebody in in place of him with a bit more energy to their play for 3 games may actually be of benefit to us imo. Everton at HT / Draw at FT will probably be about 12/1, and I'll be having the usual on that to ease the pain of throwing yet another game away :lol

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December

You can argue that a side that have created lots and failed to convert chances are "due" a game where they score them all and win comfortably. But that for me is similar to saying a side that haven't won in ten are "due" a win.
I'd say if you back a team that is creating lots of chances but not taking them (Everton?), then that's a much better reason than backing a team just because they haven't won for a long time (say, Reading?).
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Pay Day

Pay Day

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December Since the beginning of October Everton have an extraordinary 8 draws from 11 games. Their scores can be summarised as 5 out of 11 fixtures ending 1-1, 3 ending 2-2, 3 ending 2-1 or 1-2. For it to be 1-1 full time is 6/1, 1-2 is 10/1 and 2-1 is 11/1 respectively. Value?

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RIO2014

RIO2014

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December

Without a shred of doubt. Backing draw til cows come home
Put some thought on this, and for me here ,. The way EFC will set up without Fellani. will be even more defensive. Jelavic will be up for long periods without support, they could play Naysmith in the hole, but that wont work. IMO But on the other hand, looking at the last few games EFC have played, you could argue they were unlucky to concede. 75 points under 1.5 goals 5/2 Ladrokes n Betfair 30 point draw/draw 9/2 ladbrokes n betfair 10 points 0-0 10/1 SJ betfair 10 points 1-0 WH 9/1 ladbrokes betfair 10 points 1-0 EFC 17/2 sj betfair gl all
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Aidymac

Aidymac

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December Everton are a few better side, technically and quality wise. West Ham are dogged, physical, and do well at home under Allardyce. If a gun was put to me head, I would have to back Everton, I think Everton have played the best football of any side in the league this year.

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HoldenCaulfield

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December Good chance of there being a few goals in this game. With Fellaini being out I think you will start to see Jelavic getting a lot more chances. When Fellaini plays in behind him Jelavic doesn't really get any space which results in him being forced wide a lot. Oviedo or Barkley will come in and there will be a bit more creativity in the side. I can see Jelavic at least scoring one and I wouldn't rule out more. I couldn't back us to win because we just can't seem to keep a clean sheet.

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stefanos56

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December

Good chance of there being a few goals in this game. With Fellaini being out I think you will start to see Jelavic getting a lot more chances. When Fellaini plays in behind him Jelavic doesn't really get any space which results in him being forced wide a lot. Oviedo or Barkley will come in and there will be a bit more creativity in the side. I can see Jelavic at least scoring one and I wouldn't rule out more. I couldn't back us to win because we just can't seem to keep a clean sheet.
You've stolen my thunder there mate as I'm in total agreement here. I suspect Everton may just get a win here but West Ham's home form deserves enough respect for Everton's odds to be seen on the short side. I can see Jelavic benefiting from Fellaini's absence and going for him to score anytime at 9/4 with Stanjames.
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RIO2014

RIO2014

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December

Nobody should ever back 0-0... No Goalscorer will be same odds and you have the insurance of knowing an own goal wouldn't scupper your bet
Yes, you are correct, however, majority will know this, and my bets are on the exchanges, and you will never see the same price on the exchange no goal scorer will be almost a point less, so IMO the amount of games, that have a OG as first,is alot less than 10%, more like 3%, so the insurance is not there with the exchange..IMO But your mostly right if you can get ON,,for 1 thing and the diffrence is less than 4%, your better going with them.
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pg_yid

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December Overs for me. 2.19 with 188/Sbobet, stake 3/10. People (me included) think of West Ham as an unders side because of Allardyce. This hasn't really been correct, despite playing 4-5-1, especially at home, where 5 out of 9 games have gone over 2.5 goals. Everton meanwhile are an overish side in my book, with 5 out of 9 away games going over. They are much better in attack than in recent seasons, but weaker at the back as well. Moyes will know that the constant draws are potentially costing him a CL place and if the scores are level Everton will be going for the three points, which would be consistent with recent away performances; I can see an open game. Even with some potential goalscorers / creators out from either side, I think overs should be a shade of odds on here.

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blackcrow

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December Over 2.5 @ 2.07 pinnacle Over 3.5 @ 3.70 sportsbet West Ham have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 6 games, and especially at home, both sides have scored in 6 of their last 7 home games. They scored twice against Liverpool and thrice against Chelsea in their last two home games, so Everton will hold no fear for them, while Everton have scored and conceded in their last 12 games in the EPL. They have also seen both teams score in their last 6 away games, both West Ham and Everton have scored in their last 7 meetings with 5 of their last 6 games seeing at least 3 goals scored while 4 of these games had at least 4 goals in them. With both teams likely to score can see a couple more goals being scored given that both sides have a history of scoring in these match ups

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Reverand_bookmaker

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December

I think it's gonna be a draw. Tough match' date=' anyway. Everton has no Fellaini etc.[/quote'] Mate no offence but this write up isnt of the quality expected on this forum, by all means read what other people think, but if you're going to post you need some solid reasoning behind the bet your placing, the odds, and the bookmaker. "No fellaini etc" is not solid reasoning.
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Reverand_bookmaker

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Re: West Ham v Everton > Sat 22nd December With Vaz Te a long term absentee and Andy Caroll out, Carlton Cole leads the line for the Hammers and you can never be confident that he will get west Ham enough goals to win a match. Nolan is in fine form but he can't be expected to keep getting goals. West Ham held firm last week in 2nd half against fairly constant west brom pressure but could come under more pressure from an Everton side that have scored 14 goals away from home bettered only spurs and man united. But with 8 goals and 4 assists there is no question the toffees will miss Fellaini's attacking threat, as mentioned above Naismith could play the same role, how effective this will be remains to be seen, it was a decent partnership at rangers but the premiership is a different kettle of fish. Under 2.5 goals @ 1.9 with stan james Draw @ 3.25 Various

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Jase82

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Under 2.5 goals @ 1.9 - Stan James. I'm amazed you can still get this at 1.9, as I'd have it 1.70'ish. Some firms go as low as 1.6, so I think 1.9 is a price that hasn't been adjusted. I can see this tie being particularly tight, and there has already been a lot of chat about the missing players etc above, so I won't go into any more detail here :ok

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