Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December

[stressina87]

FSV Mainz 05-Hannover 96 BTS 6/10 even Mainz conceded only 4 goals at home(2 BVB) i think we will see goals here both teams like offencive player.Specially Mainz at home play good.they missed many chances against BvB and i don't see problems for Mainz to score against weak defence like Hannover who usually concedes... Hannover 96 has good strikes able to score like Diouf,Ya Konan,Sobiech etc also Mainz defence isn't very very strong so i think BTS(over 1,5) should be ok Baumgartlinger is pout for Mainz,how important is him? Mainz:Wetklo - Pospech, Svensson, Noveski, Zabavnik - N. Müller, Polanski, Soto, Ivanschitz - Szalai, S. Parker Hannover:Zieler - Cherundolo, Eggimann, Haggui, Rausch - da Silva Pinto, C. Schulz - Stindl, Schlaudraff, Huszti - M. Diouf do you agree?

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Bundesliga > 27th Nov - 28th Nov

FSV Mainz 05-Hannover 96 BTS 6/10 even Mainz conceded only 4 goals at home(2 BVB) i think we will see goals here both teams like offencive player.Specially Mainz at home play good.they missed many chances against BvB and i don't see problems for Mainz to score against weak defence like Hannover who usually concedes... Hannover 96 has good strikes able to score like Diouf,Ya Konan,Sobiech etc also Mainz defence isn't very very strong so i think BTS(over 1,5) should be ok Baumgartlinger is pout for Mainz,how important is him? Mainz:Wetklo - Pospech, Svensson, Noveski, Zabavnik - N. Müller, Polanski, Soto, Ivanschitz - Szalai, S. Parker Hannover:Zieler - Cherundolo, Eggimann, Haggui, Rausch - da Silva Pinto, C. Schulz - Stindl, Schlaudraff, Huszti - M. Diouf do you agree?

I agree. Mainz on a high after midweek win in frankfurt. Hannover probably without ya konan and abdellaoue which disminishes their attacking threat abit but Diouf is good to score too. Im still heavily laying the hannover defence. Eggiman had some problems and didnt train which fuels my suspicion that their central defence which made every game this season is running at some point out of gas. One thing worries me is that hannover isnt fucntioning that fluently going forward anymore tough they convert their chances. Baumgartlinger and Kirchhoff are out and both are big blows towards mainz defensive midfield. Polanski will come in and he didnt perform that good lately. Also Ivanschitz is a doubt which would be a big blow for mainz offense and the btts and overs as I then expect mainz to shut down making it hard for hannover who loves to have some space. Its a bit tricky cause fatigue on hannovers side could also lead to them not beeing that quick going forward. The over 2,5 and btts is my pick for thsi game too but I rather wait for tomorrows training news. Ivanschitz playing and eggiman struggling to play would give me confidence to back these bets with higher stakes.

[assange58]

Re: Bundesliga > 27th Nov - 28th Nov Several bets on this weekend's Bundesliga action have piqued my interest and I'd like to get some thoughts. 1) Leverkusen -1AH over Nuernberg, possibly more? - Leverkusen are smoking right now, sitting #2 in the table, having just decimated Bremen away and having previously beaten Bayern at the Allianz and having convincing beaten Schalke at home. While Nuernberg aren't the worst of the bottom table sides, they clearly struggle away and should be no match for the attacking ability of Kiessling, Schuerrle and the rest. 2) Freiburg 0AH or +.25AH over Augsburg - Freiburg, while certainly being a very tough home side, have been performing well both at home and on the road lately with wins over Hannover and Wolfsburg (away) and a draw at M'gladbach. Even after going down to 10 men early against Bayern on Wednesday, they still put in a strong performance and held Bayern at 1-0 until late. Against an Augsburg side that is really bad (0 wins in last 7), Freiburg should be able to pull out a win (or at least not lose). 3) M'gladbach +1.25AH or +1.5AH at Schalke - Schalke are reeling right now with 3 losses in their last 5, notably against lowly Hoffenheim and a depleted Hamburg side. Their attack has lost its ferocity and Huntelaar, Farfan and co. are not playing as they were early in the season. On the other hand, Gladbach who began the season poorly, have turned it around as of late and have recorded some nice victories over in-form Wolfsburg and Frankfurt and away to Hannover. Nevertheless, I realize Gladbach are nowhere near what they last year and still produce baffling results (draw at Augsburg). My thinking here is that Schalke will continue to struggle (not sure about status of Afellay) and most likely won't be able to destroy Gladbach. Any thoughts are more than welcome.

[Jase82]

Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December [TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 30 November 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Fortuna Düsseldorf v Eintracht Frankfurt (19:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.54 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.20 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 1 December 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] 1. FSV Mainz 05 v Hannover 96 (14:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.65 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.95 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.33 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Bayer 04 Leverkusen v 1. FC Nürnberg (14:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.53 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.55 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.7 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.18 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg (14:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.55 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.86 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.17 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Schalke 04 v Borussia Mönchengladbach (14:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.9 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.90 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] SpVgg Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart (14:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.49 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund (17:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.75 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.61 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 2 December 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] 1899 Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen (14:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.64 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.76 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.89 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] VfL Wolfsburg v Hamburger SV (16:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.65 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.21 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Bundesliga > 27th Nov - 28th Nov

Several bets on this weekend's Bundesliga action have piqued my interest and I'd like to get some thoughts. 1) Leverkusen -1AH over Nuernberg, possibly more? - Leverkusen are smoking right now, sitting #2 in the table, having just decimated Bremen away and having previously beaten Bayern at the Allianz and having convincing beaten Schalke at home. While Nuernberg aren't the worst of the bottom table sides, they clearly struggle away and should be no match for the attacking ability of Kiessling, Schuerrle and the rest. 2) Freiburg 0AH or +.25AH over Augsburg - Freiburg, while certainly being a very tough home side, have been performing well both at home and on the road lately with wins over Hannover and Wolfsburg (away) and a draw at M'gladbach. Even after going down to 10 men early against Bayern on Wednesday, they still put in a strong performance and held Bayern at 1-0 until late. Against an Augsburg side that is really bad (0 wins in last 7), Freiburg should be able to pull out a win (or at least not lose). 3) M'gladbach +1.25AH or +1.5AH at Schalke - Schalke are reeling right now with 3 losses in their last 5, notably against lowly Hoffenheim and a depleted Hamburg side. Their attack has lost its ferocity and Huntelaar, Farfan and co. are not playing as they were early in the season. On the other hand, Gladbach who began the season poorly, have turned it around as of late and have recorded some nice victories over in-form Wolfsburg and Frankfurt and away to Hannover. Nevertheless, I realize Gladbach are nowhere near what they last year and still produce baffling results (draw at Augsburg). My thinking here is that Schalke will continue to struggle (not sure about status of Afellay) and most likely won't be able to destroy Gladbach. Any thoughts are more than welcome.

Freiburg misses key player caliguri also their defense is a bit low on players with diagne red card. If defender Krmas is again missing(no info yet) then they have a real selection problem as they play already a midfielder (flum) in defense Augsburg has Mölders as a striker back. Augsburg is fighting. Tough they are not a strong team at all as their table position reflects. Freiburg has the superior gameplan but Im not so sure if they can execute that without Caliguri. A draw or narrow augsburg win wouldnt surprise me. --------------- Leverkusen is very good organized and Nürnberg is expected to drop form away again. I m not sure about a bigger handicap as Leverkusen plays the same players for some weeks now. At the end of a 3 game week I dont think its value as a narrow win would be enough and nürnberg is expected to park the bus.(big margin win vs bremen was due to werders playing style) Also Nürnberg strong with standards. I think Leverkusen did not much more when 2:0 up at hoffenheim. 2 shots in 2nd half or something. Sure if nürnberg is tired also and leverkusen pushes at home then a 3:0 Leverkusen win seems probable. ---------- Gladbach and schalke is the game between two tired teams. Arango hit his genius switch again midweek. Schalke looks a bit over the place. They cant find the final pass at the moment with Affelay out. Gladbach looked really tired all the week while Schalke rested some players midweek. Gladbach was pressed by wolfsburg all the game and you could clearly see that gladbach had no fuel but somehow they managed 2 goals and didnt conceede one.. Odds are really bad and I cant find much value on schalke. Tough I wouldnt back Gladbach here. But I really fear arango.

[assange58]

Re: Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December Hey Jase, there's several comments about this weekend's matches in the 27th-28th Nov thread. Can you move them over here by chance?

[McNasara]

Re: Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December :ok

[RemoSuffredi]

Re: Bundesliga > 27th Nov - 28th Nov Schalke will win this game. Gladbach is overestimated because of its results in the last weeks...Schalke had one day more to regenerate and Holtby and Draxler didnt play in Hamburg from the beginning, so i guess there are fresh to beat Gladbach. The only offensive potential of Gladbach are corners and freekicks from Arango. If you assume that Gladbach wont have much possesion in this game, its a clear Home win...

[Fedar]

Re: Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December Bayern - Dortmund I've got some issues with the odds here. Over 2.5 is priced at 1.65, while Both to Score is nearly the same - 1.61. This should mean that bookies consider a 3:0 victory for any of the teams as nearly as likely as a 1:1 draw. The bookies' favorite is of course the home team Bayern, but their odds are 1.75 - price that does not at all hint at expectations for a likely big win to nill. It is rather pointing at a probable narrow Bayern win. There is something very wrong with these odds. The bookies expect that it would be difficult for Borussia to get a goal at Allianz Arena, but they consider Overs more likely than Unders. And at the same time, they see it as a relatively lose game. There must be some value according to these odds. If Overs are nearly the same price with BTTS and Bayern is the favorite, then Bayern's price probably should not exceed 1.55-1.60, which would indicate that 1.75 is value for the Bavarians. However, I think that the value here is with BTTS. I feel that if bookies expect a relatively close game, which is more likely to go Over, then BTTS should be priced at 1.40-1.45, not at 1.61.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December Krmas will play for Freiburg as it seems. Tough Coach streich said on press conference they couldnt train at all after playing with 10 men vs. bayern midweek. heavy snowfall in Augsburg and -celsius temperatures until tomorrow(augsburg couldnt train too with the ball). Augsburg will welcome back important defender Langkamp as Sankoh his substitute was awfull last two games. Could be a dull draw on a frosty pitch. Caliguri is big blow for Freiburg who are also tired from bayern game playing with 10 men fpor whole game. while augsburg isnt playing very good. tough they do score so I can imagine a 1:1. Augsburg palyed good vs. tired stuttgart 2nd half and with their worst defender sankoh on the bench they might get a result here.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December

Bayern - Dortmund I've got some issues with the odds here. Over 2.5 is priced at 1.65, while Both to Score is nearly the same - 1.61. This should mean that bookies consider a 3:0 victory for any of the teams as nearly as likely as a 1:1 draw. The bookies' favorite is of course the home team Bayern, but their odds are 1.75 - price that does not at all hint at expectations for a likely big win to nill. It is rather pointing at a probable narrow Bayern win. There is something very wrong with these odds. The bookies expect that it would be difficult for Borussia to get a goal at Allianz Arena, but they consider Overs more likely than Unders. And at the same time, they see it as a relatively lose game. There must be some value according to these odds. If Overs are nearly the same price with BTTS and Bayern is the favorite, then Bayern's price probably should not exceed 1.55-1.60, which would indicate that 1.75 is value for the Bavarians. However, I think that the value here is with BTTS. I feel that if bookies expect a relatively close game, which is more likely to go Over, then BTTS should be priced at 1.40-1.45, not at 1.61.

These odds reflect that bayern is very strong at the back. They are out for revenge and will surely go for the goal. Dortmund doesnt look that stable in the defense while they have even stronger offensive potential then last year. Their pleyers rested vs. duesseldorf as did bayern vs. freiburg. Both teams are through in CL and this is their highlight until the winter break. everything set for an entertaining match. I think game will be decided in the offense and not as hard fought as several others. Bayern is already uncatchable. The only thought for a narrow low scoring game that comes to my mind is that Heynckes might think that he will be ok with a draw as that would seal their points tally. Tough the players are hot to face each other and will be eager to beat the other team. over 2,5 and btts are both good to take imo as the btts at least covers the 1:1 wich isnt out of question. I tend towards bayern as they seem more stable at the back having also a tad more to prove to win this. But the odds are awfull and a dortmund dc or win looks at least value cause they sure can put 1-2 goals past neuer. A team like frankfurt had many chances in munich but couldnt convert.

[malabgd]

Re: Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December Injuries & suspensions Mainz v Hannover 96 Mainz: Bungert, Kirchhoff, Baumgartlinger, Ede, Choupo-Moting Hannover 96: Felipe, Andreasen, Abdellaoue Schalke 04 v Mönchengladbach Schalke 04: Papadopoulos, Höger, Moritz Mönchengladbach: Daems, Zimmermann, de Jong Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund Bayern München: Raeder, Can (Bänderriss), Luiz Gustavo, Robben Borussia Dortmund: Owomoyela, Kehl

[Sportsbts]

Re: Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December

Football - Germany 1. Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 - Hannover 96

SELECTION: over 2.5 goals

ODD: 1.90 [188BET]

START: 15:30

Mainz is great on home ground. In 7 home matches, Mainz have 5 wins and 2 loses. Because of that they are on high 7th place with 20 points. Hannover is on 6th place with same number of points. This two teams are pretty equal so far in the season. My bet goes on Mainz because of home advantage and better available lineup. In previous season on this stadium Mainz take draw 1:1 against Hannover, but both teams missed many goal chances, I remember this game. Mainz last two league matches in a row end with Over 2.5, in previous round show great performance on away against Eintracht Frankfurt and won 3:1. For sure feel very confident before this match. Hannover on away matches always trying play open football, last 4 away matches for this team in a row end with over 2.5 goals. Mainz "11" Wetklo - Pospech, Svensson, Noveski, Zabavnik - N. Müller, Polanski, Soto, Ivanschitz - Szalai, S. Parker Mainz's absences: Bungert, Kirchhoff, Schilk, Baumgartlinger, Ede, Choupo-Moting Hannover "11" Zieler - Cherundolo, Eggimann, Haggui, Rausch - da Silva Pinto, C. Schulz - Stindl, Schlaudraff, Huszti - M. Diouf Hannover's absences: Radlinger, Felipe, Schulze, Andreasen, Aycicek, Gießelmann, Schünemann, Abdellaoue

[assange58]

Re: Bundesliga > 27th Nov - 28th Nov

Schalke will win this game. Gladbach is overestimated because of its results in the last weeks...Schalke had one day more to regenerate and Holtby and Draxler didnt play in Hamburg from the beginning' date=' so i guess there are fresh to beat Gladbach. The only offensive potential of Gladbach are corners and freekicks from Arango. If you assume that Gladbach wont have much possesion in this game, its a clear Home win...[/quote'] Sorry people, Schalke are just not clicking right now.

[malabgd]

Re: Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December Injuries and suspensions VfL Wolfsburg v Hamburger SV VfL Wolfsburg: Pilar, Träsch, Helmes Hamburger SV: Rajkovic, Arslan, Jansen, Jiracek, Kacar, Nörgaard, Rincon, van der Vaart

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December Bets of the week for me: Hoffenheim - Bremen 15:30 Over 2,5 @1,65 8/10 Over 3,5 @2,65 4/10 Bremen not to loose @1,45 10/10 Bremen to win @2,65 6/10 Bremen hc -1 @4,65 3/10 Very interesting game. It snowed today but Hoffenheim has a heated pitch and there is no strong snow forecast for this time. So this shouldnt influence much. Hoffenheim coach Babbel is sitting on a hot seat. His results will get him probably ultimatly sacked. He is coach of a small town team sponsored by SAP. He hismelf said that there isnt much pressure from media etc in hoffenheim. He likes to be there cause of stuff like anice haircut in nearby heidelberg. He isnt much concerned about his job. He is totally disconnected from the small amount of fans. The SAP boss is in florida so nothing coudl be decided before this match. Hoffenhei mmakes big errors in defense and their only strength is their offense. Now they miss Rudy in centrald efense midfield and Delpierre in central defence. a Youngster will replace him or williams will move from midfield to defense as he did last game after the halftime. I think it will be williams as the youngster played with second team 90 minutes on friday. the other DC Compper looks out of form. Babbel criticisced his team that they dont do what he says(imo weak). He is confident of winning and beeing the manager after this game. He had several problems with key players and I have the feeling that not every player would be unhappy to have a new coach next week. Their interviews dont sound very promising. On the other hand we have Bremen who underperform very much. They have good attacking potential but play msot the time too naive. they are young. They are missing Junuzovic who is important def midfielder. Probably fritz will play for him who didnt look very fit last time out. Other then that they have everyone available for this game. Arnautovic had the cold but trains since 2 days so he should be ok. Arnautovic scored in the alst two games vs. bremen. Still despite not getting enough points they manage to score reguarly and I feel the core of this team is intact. Today with Hoffenheims missings and Bremens attacking threat I can see Hoffenheim receiving at least two goals. Hoffenheim Coach needs to win this game and I think we will see a rather all or nothing hoffenheim performance here which will expose their defense at some point or the other towards the pacy bremen attackers. Bremen needs to win this game too as they need to hold contact to international places and they are well aware of hoffenheims weaknesses. Either team trailing will mean another team opening up exposing their abck to the opponents pacy counterattacks. the weak defensive midfields of both teams will help making this a rather open game I dont think that hoffenheim will give their all for coach babbel whos last press conference was rather absurd. If hoffenhei mwerent that strong i nattack and bremen better defensivly I would set all my units on bremen. Isntead I split it with the over option. Tough this kind of bears the danger that hoffenhei might do nothing at some point when trailing 0:1 but even then I expect Babbel to throw in all his offensive players while he hasnt much defensive options on the bench.

[prinzharry]

Re: Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December Nice write up! Squads are out, Hoffenheim is playing with 21-year-old Denis Streker as central defender and looks as if Babbel is playing with 2 attackers, namely Schipplock and Joselu. That definetely backs the "All-or-nothing" thesis. I'm going for the over 3.5, and I'll take Bremen (-1), in 6 of their 8 defeats Hoffenheim lost with a 2-goals-difference.

[assange58]

Re: Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December

Bets of the week for me: Hoffenheim - Bremen 15:30 Over 2,5 @1,65 8/10 Over 3,5 @2,65 4/10 Bremen not to loose @1,45 10/10 Bremen to win @2,65 6/10 Bremen hc -1 @4,65 3/10

BEAUTIFUL PICKS! I don't think your analysis could have been any more spot on! Well done, Notorious and TAUSEND DANK!!

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Bundesliga > 30th November - 2nd December

Bets of the week for me: Hoffenheim - Bremen 15:30 Over 2,5 @1,65 8/10 Over 3,5 @2,65 4/10 Bremen not to loose @1,45 10/10 Bremen to win @2,65 6/10 Bremen hc -1 @4,65 3/10 Very interesting game.

Well normaly I dont hype myself but this was just genius odds and I was very sure and some people followed makes a good feeling beating the bookies.. Big bookie mistake. Bets like these I see 2-3 times a year and they are the ones you take high stakes even if odds suggest otherwise. Tough when I saw werder captain Hunt(no time to respond in this thread..sorry) not playing I lowered stakes on hc -1 and win but took instead a punt on arnautovic to score as he scored vs. them the last two games. My excel table has big profit but pocket not so much. tough anyway time for vacation ;) Hoffenheim very bad but Hunt shortly droped out nearly hurt the bets as Werder seemingly had problems keeping the order and ball possesion midway but hoffenheim was just worse. Know keeping fingers crossed that coach babbel is still coach next friday..:hope