Skittle Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Just goes to show that there's money problems abroad and not just here. Glad to see the Dutch leagues back, but I would be giving it a couple of weeks grace anyway to see if the 'trends' continue into part 2 of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Just goes to show that there's money problems abroad and not just here. Glad to see the Dutch leagues back' date=' but I would be giving it a couple of weeks grace anyway to see if the 'trends' continue into part 2 of the season.[/quote'] It's a real shame when any club folds. Even teams who have significant investment are at risk of implosion if the money dries up or is withdrawn. Portsmouth's a great example of that, literally from riches to rags. I'll take on board your advice about letting a couple of weeks go first, let the players get warmed up and back into it. I usually don't touch leagues for a minimum of a month at least before I bet on them, so it makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator So, after letting a little time go by, I've decided to resurrect this thread but with a few changes. I initially started this as a bit of fun/light entertainment, a side portion to my main course of betting, just something to not take too serious. Clearly, it was gambling and not betting. Blindly backing each match to go over 1.5 presents no skill whatsoever, it is all about luck. The goals appear to still being scored in the league, however, as Skittle mentions a few posts above, it is always going to be the odd game "letting down" the accumulator. That trend appears to be continuing, and despite intending to be just a bit of "fun", it is pointless and no fun at all to just throw money away each week. With that in mind, I'm going to shift the goalposts (as it were!). I want to steer this a little more towards betting rather than gambling. I will no longer back each and every game to go over 1.5 goals, but instead try and be a little more selective in my picks. Of course, with accumulators there is always a greater risk which increases along with the number of selections. With that in mind, I will limit myself to an absolute maximum liability of £100. If this isn't working I think I'll get a sense of that a long time before losing that much and I will announce as such. So on I go, starting with this week's selections which are: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator - Attempt 8, Stage 1 Games on Friday 8th February, at 7pm: Excelsior vs MVV @ 1.111 De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven @ 1.111 Almere vs Sparta Rotterdam @ 1.143 Cambuur vs Veendam @ 1.133 4-fold accumulator odds @ 1.598 £10 staked to win £15.98 All bets placed with VC still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhupo12 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Nice thread man, i'm betting every friday on second dutch league, every game that day 3 and more goals, and after four weeks i double up the stake, i know it is a gambling also, but it is a crazy scoring league and you can find some profit like that. For now at least. Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Fingers crossed for the new streamlined 'system'. Aside from this league, do you ever look at the Jong games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Fingers crossed for the new streamlined 'system'. Aside from this league' date=' do you ever look at the Jong games?[/quote'] I've never really looked at the Jong games, no. I've noticed you've had a few as selections in your 0.5 goals, so I assume there is a fairly reliable 'trend' of goals being scored? I'll certainly take a look into it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Nice thread man' date=' i'm betting every friday on second dutch league, every game that day 3 and more goals, and after four weeks i double up the stake, i know it is a gambling also, but it is a crazy scoring league and you can find some profit like that. For now at least. Good luck![/quote'] Thanks Zhupo. Hope the goals continue to come for you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator One more goal needed, and Cambuur Postponed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator One more goal needed' date=' and Cambuur Postponed[/quote'] A decent night for the Jupiler league. After my more 'thoughtful' selection process this week, all six games ran over 2.5 goals anyway! Still think the new approach is the right way forward though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator :cow :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhupo12 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Well, they did tonight :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 10b Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Any one know when the postponed game is being played? I followed Fox and dida seven match acc. but the bet is still pending so just want to cover the bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Well' date=' they did tonight :D[/quote'] Well done! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Any one know when the postponed game is being played? I followed Fox and dida seven match acc. but the bet is still pending so just want to cover the bet Hi Chris. Who did you place your bet with? Mine is done with Victor Chandler, and having checked my account my bet was also showing as outstanding. On checking their T&Cs, it states that unless a postponed game is played the following day, the bet will be settled at reduced winnings. I've checked with an operator who confirmed that if the match isn't played within 24 hours (which I'm guessing it won't), the bet will be settled as a triple. I'd check the T&Cs of the bookmaker you use, but I'd imagine your bet will be settled as a 6-fold at some point today. Hope that helps!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 10b Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Hi Fox I did my bet with Paddy Power. I have just checked my account and the money has been paid in like you said as a six-fold. Thanks for replying and I think I will keep an eye out on the Jupiler from now on. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator - Attempt 8, Stage 1 Results: Excelsior vs MVV: 1-2 De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven: 2-2 Almere vs Sparta Rotterdam: 0-3 Cambuur vs Veendam: ... POSTPONED 3-fold reduced accumulator odds @ 1.411 - Bet Won £10 staked returned £14.11 Total Staked: £56.63 Total P/L: -£25.89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator - Attempt 8, Stage 2 Games on Friday 15th February, at 7pm: Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Eindhoven @ 1.111 MVV vs Cambuur @ 1.143 Veendam vs Almere @ 1.143 3-fold accumulator odds @ 1.451 £14.11 staked to win £20.48 There are several other matches this week that, based on stats, I think "should" have a reasonable probability of going over 1.5 goals; however, for now I'm going to continue on the side of caution and limit my selections. I'll be keeping a close eye on how the rest do though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator - Attempt 8, Stage 2 Results: Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Eindhoven: 6-1 MVV vs Cambuur: 1-2 Veendam vs Almere: 3-1 3-fold accumulator odds @ 1.451 - Bet Won £14.11 staked returned £20.48 Total Staked: £70.74 Total P/L: -£19.52 A decent return of goals on Jupiler League games tonight, with all seven matches played going over 1.5 goals. The goals in the MVV vs Cambuur match (one of my selections) came very late, being scored in the 83rd, 89th and 90th minutes respectively. A little close for comfort, but I think it's important to experience these "close shaves" in betting now and again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator - Attempt 8, Stage 3 Games on Monday 18th February, at 7pm: Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven @ 1.100 Go Ahead Eagles vs OSS @ 1.100 MVV vs Veendam @ 1.125 3-fold accumulator odds @ 1.361 £20.48 staked to win £27.88 There are six matches being played in the Jupiler League on Monday evening which I think are rearranged matches from earlier postponements. I considered the merits of betting on these matches, taking into account that the last round of games was played on Friday evening; however, I think that three days between games (and a recent league break during the winter) makes me feel reasonably assured that the players shouldn't be suffering from the effects of fatigue just yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator - Attempt 8, Stage 3 Results: Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven: 1-0 Go Ahead Eagles vs OSS: 2-2 MVV vs Veendam: 2-0 3-fold accumulator odds @ 1.361 - Bet Lost £20.48 staked returned £0 Total Staked: £91.22 Total P/L: -£40 Regrettably (well, for me anyway!) the one game to finish under 1.5 goals in the Jupiler League tonight was amongst my selections. It does make me wonder whether I am still effectively just rolling the dice and hoping the numbers come in (or in this case hoping to randomly avoid the low-scoring games), but this is football not philosophy so ... next bet will be up Thursday. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator - Attempt 9, Stage 1 Games on Friday 22nd February, at 7pm: Almere vs MVV @ 1.133 De Graafschap vs Veendam @ 1.125 Fortuna Sittard vs OSS @ 1.125 Go Ahead Eagles vs Helmond Sport @ 1.125 4-fold accumulator odds @ 1.613 £10 staked to win £16.13 I think the Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam game could have a reasonable chance for 2+ goals; going on stats alone, both teams are not shy when it comes to finding the net and also let the odd goal slip in at the opposite end. However, given both sides are in reasonable form and it is a near-top-of-the-table "clash", I have resisted the urge to include it in this week's selections just for the sake of attempting to boost potential winnings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Friday means Jupiler. I get worried that I might be relying on it too much for my goal thread sometimes, especially with the Beloften/Jong games as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Friday means Jupiler. I get worried that I might be relying on it too much for my goal thread sometimes' date=' especially with the Beloften/Jong games as well.[/quote'] The problem I'm having with it, as I mentioned on Monday and as you've mentioned, is dodging the odd 1-0 or 0-0 result. If you look at the stats of all the teams this season (perhaps bar Telstar), it pretty much looks like a wall of goals. But dotted here and there is a game without goals ... sort of like the black sheep amongst the flock as it were. 86% of games have gone over 1.5 this season, and I feel that's the problem for me now that I'm trying to be more selective: it feels more like I'm trying to dodge one of the 14%, rather than hit the 86%. I think you'll be ok to find a few games with at least one goal in them this week though, but I guess when you're so close to hitting the record, every game needs to be scrutinised that much more? There is one game in my selections this week that I feel very confident should have at least one goal ... but I'm damned if I'm going to suggest it to you and risk having any hand in breaking your run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator I've picked out MVV and Cambuur so far. I was trying not to mention 'record'. I feel like I shouldn't be checking games that much more as the 'system' has got me this far. Wanting to be more cautious just comes automatically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator I've picked out MVV and Cambuur so far. I was trying not to mention 'record'. I feel like I shouldn't be checking games that much more as the 'system' has got me this far. Wanting to be more cautious just comes automatically. MVV is top of my own list. I'm pretty confident on that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 10b Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Hi Fox been keeping an eye on this thread but can't post because I'm in work. My three for tonight are Go Ahead, Volendam and Almere. Have done tthem in a over 2.5 treble. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Hi Fox been keeping an eye on this thread but can't post because I'm in work. My three for tonight are Go Ahead' date=' Volendam and Almere. Have done tthem in a over 2.5 treble. Good luck.[/quote'] Nice work Chris. Might have to start following your selections from now on instead! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator - Attempt 9, Stage 1 Results: Almere vs MVV: 3-1 De Graafschap vs Veendam: 1-1 Fortuna Sittard vs OSS: 0-1 Go Ahead Eagles vs Helmond Sport: 2-1 4-fold accumulator odds @ 1.613 - Bet Lost £10 staked returned £0 Total Staked: £101.22 Total P/L: -£50 No success this round, and half way towards the total amount I am prepared to give to the bookmaker ... has certainly felt a little like taking candy from the baby this week. Just out of interest, if this was a "proper" betting system the yield would currently stand at -49.40% Ouch! Back for another round next week.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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