Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator

[foxinexile]

After trying my hand at a couple of (very!) unsuccessful systems, I thought for my next trick it might be best to stick to a bit of light entertainment instead ... As I'm sure most people are aware, the Dutch leagues, in particular the Jupiler league, tend to produce an awful lot of goals. With a bit of luck I hope to tap into that. Each week I'll place a 9-fold accumulator, backing over 1.5 goals for each match in the Jupiler League. So far this season, 81 out of 90 matches have ended with 2 goals or more. What I'll be aiming to do is repeat this process two or three weeks in succession, to generate profit. The odds on this accumulator are ususally between 2.8 - 3.2, so I'll be aiming to bank at anywhere between £40 - £150 each time, depending on how much I've already spent! Bets will be posted on a Thursday. Each attempt will start with £5 and I'll keep track of how much I lose or win, without actually having an initial starting Bank if that makes sense! Bets will be placed with Victor Chandler, just on the basis that I don't currently have any money tied up with them. All bets are placed using real money. I should add this is purely for fun and as such is very much gambling, not betting, as it's all about luck and there's no skill involved. First "gamble" to come! :ok

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator x 4 Games on Friday 2nd November, at 7pm: AGOVV vs Volendam @ 1.111 Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles @ 1.143 Telstar vs Almere @ 1.125 Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven @ 1.111 Emmen vs De Graafschap @ 1.167 Helmond Sport vs Cambuur @ 1.133 OSS vs Veendam @ 1.143 Game on Sunday 4th November, at 1.30pm: Den Bosch vs Fortuna Sittard @ 1.143 Game on Monday 5th November, at 7pm: MVV vs Sparta Rotterdam @ 1.125 9-fold accumulator odds @ 3.084 £5 staked to win £15.42 Result updated after last game on Monday.

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator x 4 Attempt 1, Stage 1 Results: AGOVV vs Volendam: 0-4 Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles: 1-6 Telstar vs Almere: 1-2 Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven: 3-0 Emmen vs De Graafschap: 1-3 Helmond Sport vs Cambuur: 3-1 OSS vs Veendam: 2-3 Den Bosch vs Fortuna Sittard: 1-0 MVV vs Sparta Rotterdam: 0-1 9-fold accumulator odds @ 3.084 - Bet Lost. Running Total: -£5.00 So first attempt goes down at the first hurdle! :lol 7 out of 9 going over 1.5. I should've placed a +2.5goals accumulator on Friday's games only ... shoulda, woulda, coulda! Second attempt will be posted Thursday, when odds for the league come out. :ok

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator x 4 Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals accumulator - Attempt 2, Stage 1 Games on Friday 9th November, at 7pm: Almere vs Emmen @ 1.143 Veendam vs Fortuna Sittard @ 1.200 Cambuur vs AGOVV @ 1.083 De Graafschap vs Dordrecht @ 1.143 FC Eindhoven vs Go Ahead Eagles @ 1.133 OSS vs Telstar @ 1.143 MVV vs Den Bosch @ 1.154 Sparta Rotterdam vs Helmond Sport @ 1.133 Game on Sunday 11th November, at 1.30pm: Volendam vs Excelsior @ 1.133 9-fold accumulator odds @ 3.257 £5 staked to win £16.29

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator x 4 Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals accumulator - Attempt 2, Stage 1 Results: Almere vs Emmen: 1-0 Veendam vs Fortuna Sittard: 1-3 Cambuur vs AGOVV: 0-0 De Graafschap vs Dordrecht: 3-4 FC Eindhoven vs Go Ahead Eagles: 1-4 OSS vs Telstar: 1-0 MVV vs Den Bosch: 4-0 Sparta Rotterdam vs Helmond Sport: 2-0 Volendam vs Excelsior: 3-1 9-fold accumulator odds @ 3.257 - Bet Lost £5 staked returned £0 Total Staked: £10 Running Total: -£10 So a second successive attempt fails at the first stage. Hopefully next gamble will be third time lucky! Bets will be up on Thursday. :ok

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator x 4 Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals accumulator - Attempt 3, Stage 1 Games on Friday 16th November, at 7pm: Telstar vs Veendam @ 1.143 Excelsior vs OSS @ 1.100 Den Bosch vs Almere @ 1.100 Dordrecht vs MVV @ 1.133 Emmen vs FC Eindhoven @ 1.143 Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam @ 1.182 Go Ahead Eagles vs AGOVV @ 1.091 Helmond Sport vs Volendam @ 1.133 Game on Monday 19th November, at 7pm: Cambuur vs De Graafschap @ 1.133 9-fold accumulator odds @ 2.965 £5 staked to win £14.82

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator x 4 Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals accumulator - Attempt 3, Stage 1 Results: Telstar vs Veendam: 0-0 Excelsior vs OSS: 1-3 Den Bosch vs Almere: 0-2 Dordrecht vs MVV: 3-3 Emmen vs FC Eindhoven: 2-2 Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam: 1-3 Go Ahead Eagles vs AGOVV: 2-2 Helmond Sport vs Volendam: 2-0 Cambuur vs De Graafschap: 2-0 9-fold accumulator odds @ 2.965 - Bet Lost £5 staked returned £0 Total Staked: £15 Running Total P/L: -£15 No luck for the third week running. This time it was the classic "let down by one game" accumulator story that gets rolled out the length and breadth of the country every Saturday, come five o'clock! But as a non-acca betting type, at least I can now say I know how it feels! Next gamble will be up on Thursday. :ok

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator x 4 Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals accumulator - Attempt 4, Stage 1 Games on Friday 23rd November, at 7pm: AGOVV vs Helmond Sport @ 1.111 Veendam vs Excelsior @ 1.125 De Graafschap vs Fortuna Sittard @ 1.154 Den Bosch vs Telstar @ 1.133 FC Eindhoven vs Almere @ 1.100 Volendam vs Emmen @ 1.091 MVV vs Go Ahead Eagles @ 1.100 Game on Sunday 25th November, at 1.30pm: Sparta Rotterdam vs Dordrecht @ 1.133 Game on Monday 26th November, at 7pm: OSS vs Cambuur @ 1.125 9-fold accumulator odds @ 2.750 £5 staked to win £13.75 Results will be updated after the final game on Monday.

[Skittle]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator x 4 You'll get one in soon, but you're falling behind schedule.

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator x 4

You'll get one in soon' date=' but you're falling behind schedule.[/quote'] Fingers crossed that I do! In reality, despite the high number of goals in this league, it's probably unlikely that I could roll this over four times in succession. If I can manage it two/three weeks in a row I would probably bank at that point and start back at £5 for another attempt ... there's no need to be greedy after all! In fact, I'm going to amend the thread title and first post to just 'accumulator' rather than 'accumulator X 4' to reflect that. If I do lose £5 a week on this for the remainder of the season, then I'm ok with that, as that's the amount in advance I'd decided I'd be comfortable losing ... although hopefully that won't be the case in the end!

[Skittle]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator You should never be comfortable losing.

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator

You should never be comfortable losing.

That is very true. But in my approach to betting (or in this case gambling, as I don't believe this to be betting), I like to start with the expectation that I will lose "X" amount, however much I have set "X" at. I know that sounds negative but I find that it helps with discipline (which we all know is a golden betting requirement) in the long term. If my expectation with this thread, say, is that I will lose a maximum of £150, then that keeps me from betting higher amounts when I hit a losing streak (as I am on now), just to win back what I have already lost. If I don't set that amount in advance, I will lose discipline along the way. I do have an expectation in the opposite direction as well of how much profit I believe is realistic to make with this thread, which also keeps the discipline in tow. But to get to that target, I believe I must be willing to risk "X" amount of money and accept that as the cost of trying to make a profit. Like I said, I know it sounds negative to set an amount I'm "comfortable" losing, but I'm also realistic to the fact that being successful at betting is very, very difficult. I've seen too many people go above and beyond what they should be willing to lose just because they're chasing losses and losing their discipline. And that's when the real problems start. So after that final word of doom, let's positively hope this week is the first success!

[Skittle]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator ..........and then Den Bosch it all fell over.

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator

..........and then Den Bosch it all fell over.

:rollinAnd so on to Attempt 5 it goes ......

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals accumulator - Attempt 4, Stage 1 Results: AGOVV vs Helmond Sport: 1-2 Veendam vs Excelsior: 3-2 De Graafschap vs Fortuna Sittard: 2-2 Den Bosch vs Telstar: 0-1 FC Eindhoven vs Almere: 1-2 Volendam vs Emmen: 3-2 MVV vs Go Ahead Eagles: 3-3 Sparta Rotterdam vs Dordrecht: 3-0 OSS vs Cambuur: 1-3 9-fold accumulator odds @ 2.750 - Bet Lost £5 staked returned £0 Total Staked: £20 Running Total P/L: -£20 No success again this week, still waiting for that elusive first win. The gamble lost by "only" one goal lacking in the Den Bosch vs Telstar game so it's getting closer! Attempt Number 5 will be up on Thursday. :ok

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals accumulator - Attempt 5, Stage 1 Games on Friday 30th November, at 7pm: Almere vs Excelsior @ 1.125 Cambuur vs Telstar @ 1.143 Veendam vs Den Bosch @ 1.167 Helmond Sport vs MVV @ 1.133 Fortuna Sittard vs FC Eindhoven @ 1.154 Go Ahead Eagles vs Emmen @ 1.100 Games on Sunday 2nd December, at 1.30pm: Volendam vs De Graafschap @ 1.125 Sparta Rotterdam vs OSS @ 1.083 Game on Monday 3rd December, at 7pm: Dordrecht vs AGOVV @ 1.091 9-fold accumulator odds @ 2.868 £5 staked to win £14.34 Results will be updated after the final game on Monday.

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals accumulator - Attempt 5, Stage 1 Results: Almere vs Excelsior: 2-1 Cambuur vs Telstar: 3-2 Veendam vs Den Bosch: 0-3 Helmond Sport vs MVV: 1-1 Fortuna Sittard vs FC Eindhoven: 1-1 Go Ahead Eagles vs Emmen: 2-1 Volendam vs De Graafschap: 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam vs OSS: 5-1 Dordrecht vs AGOVV: 2-0 9-fold accumulator odds @ 2.868 - Bet Lost £5 staked returned £0 Total Staked: £25 Running P/L: -£25 So, for the second successive week the gamble lost by "only" one goal, with Volendam vs De Graafschap managing just the one between them. Bloody accumulators!:lol Still, plenty more weeks to go, it being a marathon not a sprint etc etc. 6th attempt will be up on Thursday.:ok

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals accumulator - Attempt 6, Stage 1 Games on Friday 7th December, at 7pm: AGOVV vs Almere @ 1.133 Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam @ 1.125 Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven @ 1.133 Dordrecht vs Fortuna Sittard @ 1.133 Emmen vs Cambuur @ 1.143 Go Ahead Eagles vs Veendam @ 1.111 Helmond Sport vs OSS @ 1.083 MVV vs Volendam @ 1.125 Telstar vs De Graafschap @ 1.182 9-fold accumulator odds @ 2.992 £5 staked to win £14.96 With all the league's games on Friday night this week, there won't be much of a wait to post up the results of this failed attempt (going for a bit of reverse psychology this week!).

[Skittle]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator I think there's a good chance this week. Disappointed to find Betfair only doing two of these games tonight. They usually do the lot.

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator

I think there's a good chance this week. Disappointed to find Betfair only doing two of these games tonight. They usually do the lot.

Thanks Skittle, certainly hope so! I think it's a fairly dependable league for the over 0.5 hunts. There's been two 0-0s since I started, but I think with a little research it shouldn't be too difficult to get a feeling for which games will have goals. Not a 100% risk-free league (wish such a thing existed!), but it's generally ok on the goal front. Wonder why Betfair only have two on tonight?

[Lennox]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Only two games on tonight lads, rest have been postponed.

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator

Only two games on tonight lads' date=' rest have been postponed.[/quote'] Ah, that would explain it! Thanks for the heads up.

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals accumulator - Attempt 6, Stage 1 Results: AGOVV vs Almere: ... POSTPONED Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam: 2-1 Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven: ... POSTPONED Dordrecht vs Fortuna Sittard: 0-1 Emmen vs Cambuur: ... POSTPONED Go Ahead Eagles vs Veendam: ... POSTPONED Helmond Sport vs OSS: ... POSTPONED MVV vs Volendam: ... POSTPONED Telstar vs De Graafschap: ... POSTPONED 9-fold accumulator odds @ 2.992 - Bet Lost £5 staked returned £0 Total Staked: £30 Running P/L: -£30 7 from 9 games postponed tonight due to snow in the Netherlands. Unfortunately, of the two remaining games, Dordrecht vs Fortuna Sittard returned one goal only, so the gamble fails. Clearly the reverse psychology had no effect! I'm not sure when the postponed games will take place but whenever it is, I might try another attempt with them; although technically I shouldn't as they stand as part of this accumulator and it has failed this week. I'll see when the time arises. As always, next attempt will be up next Thursday, so until then ... :ok

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals Accumulator - Attempt 7, Stage 1 Games on Friday 14th December, at 7pm: FC Eindhoven vs AGOVV @ 1.154 Veendam vs Helmond Sport @ 1.154 Cambuur vs Excelsior @ 1.111 Sparta Rotterdam vs Telstar @ 1.133 Fortuna Sittard vs MVV @ 1.167 OSS vs Emmen @ 1.143 De Graafschap vs Den Bosch @ 1.167 Almere vs Dordrecht @ 1.133 Game on Sunday 16th December, at 1.30pm: Volendam vs Go Ahead Eagles @ 1.125 9-fold accumulator odds @ 3.326 £5 staked to win £16.63 So after the 9-fold became a Double last week (and still lost!), here's hoping for a full set of fixtures completed this time around. I've been sad enough to check the weather forecast for the Netherlands over the weekend and, like the UK, it's looking milder so it should be ok. The odds are the highest yet. I know goals in football are random events but I'm not holding my breath for an early Christmas present this week ...

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals Accumulator - Attempt 7, Stage 1 Results: FC Eindhoven vs AGOVV: 1-6 Veendam vs Helmond Sport: 3-1 Cambuur vs Excelsior: 3-2 Sparta Rotterdam vs Telstar: 3-3 Fortuna Sittard vs MVV: 1-2 OSS vs Emmen: 2-2 De Graafschap vs Den Bosch: 3-0 Almere vs Dordrecht: 2-3 Volendam vs Go Ahead Eagles: 4-3 9-fold accumulator odds @ 3.326 - Bet Won £5 staked returned £16.63 Total Staked: £35 Total P/L: -£23.37 So, the first win comes in at the seventh attempt. Nice to get there in the end! There are three matches being played tomorrow which are three of the seven postponed games from last week. I've decided not to have a gamble on them as it wouldn't really feel right. If all seven were being played at the same time I'd give it a go, but for now I'll hang on until next weekend. My current train of thought is to use the profit from this week (£11.63) on the next accumulator, saving the original stake of £5 for another attempt. Second stage of Attempt Seven will be up next Thursday. :ok

[Skittle]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator It was only a matter of time. The odd game letting you down is the problem though and I can't see the profit figures making it into the black.

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator

It was only a matter of time. The odd game letting you down is the problem though and I can't see the profit figures making it into the black.

Probably true to be honest, Skittle. £5 staked each week over the course of the season will end in a loss, guaranteed (hence I guess why bookmakers like accumulators and the people that do them so much); but hopefully with a bit of luck (hence why this is a gamble, not a bet), I might hit two or three weeks in a row where all games go over 1.5. Unlikely, I know, but we'll see.

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals Accumulator - Attempt 7, Stage 2 Games on Friday 21st December, at 7pm: AGOVV vs Fortuna Sittard @ 1.133 Dordrecht vs Emmen @ 1.100 MVV vs FC Eindhoven @ 1.091 Veendam vs Sparta Rotterdam @ 1.143 Cambuur vs Volendam @ 1.133 Excelsior vs De Graafschap @ 1.154 Helmond Sport vs Telstar @ 1.143 Game on Saturday 22nd December, at 6pm: Go Ahead Eagles vs Almere @ 1.091 Game on Sunday 23rd December, at 1.30pm: Den Bosch vs OSS @ 1.111 9-fold accumulator odds @ 2.815 £11.63 staked to win £32.74 Results updated after the final game on Sunday.

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 goals Accumulator - Attempt 7, Stage 2 Results: AGOVV vs Fortuna Sittard: 0-2 Dordrecht vs Emmen: 0-0 MVV vs FC Eindhoven: 3-2 Veendam vs Sparta Rotterdam: 2-1 Cambuur vs Volendam: 2-2 Excelsior vs De Graafschap: 1-3 Helmond Sport vs Telstar: 1-0 Go Ahead Eagles vs Almere: 2-2 Den Bosch vs OSS: 1-2 9-fold accumulator odds @ 2.815 - Bet Lost £11.63 staked returned £0 Total Staked: £46.63 Total P/L: -£30 So that's the end of this thread ... until mid-January when the Jupiler League resumes. Next batch of games are around the 17th/18th January, so until then may I wish everyone a very merry Christmas and a fantastic New Year! :ok

[foxinexile]

Re: Dutch Jupiler League 1.5 Goals Accumulator I was hoping to resurrect this thread after the Netherlands leagues' mini winter break. Ironically, this weekend looks like one of the worst weather-wise of the winter so far. Like the UK, the Netherlands looks like it'll be basking in freezing temperatures for the next few days. Three out of five games on Friday have been postponed and I imagine a couple more at least might succumb to the weather. (Maybe I should just change this thread to 'Netherlands Weather Watch' and screw the football!) Also, on the 13th of January AGOVV was sadly declared bankrupt and has ceased to exist, a month shy of its centenary; the club has been withdrawn from the Jupiler League and all future league fixtures have been cancelled. It's another sad reminder of the perilous financial state a lot of clubs find themselves in these days. I don't know whether it was down to mis-management or genuine financial difficulty or both, but it's a shame to see another club fall by the wayside. With only five fixtures remaining and possibly further postponements, I've decided to save my pennies until the next round of games on the 25th.