Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at -2% )

[Osesame]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.35% )

03/02/2006	Brugges - Lierse
04/02/2006	Panathinaikos - Levadiakos
06/02/2006	Olympiakos- Kallithea
05/02/2006	Standard Liege - La Louviere

Maybe the bugs have missed these?

[Clotty]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.35% ) A quick question, how do you determine what odds you'll take for a bet? For example, you might say you'll bet on FC Bayern Munich to beat Armenia Belefield if you get the price of 1.23 of higher. But why 1.23, how did you come to that conclusion. I'd also be interested to know if anyone's tried this with draw no bet clauses. All of your losses by way of a draw would be taken care of, but I suspect the shorter odds would might make profit lower. Has anyone tried this?

[Clotty]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.35% ) Sorry if I wasnt clear, by 'this' I mean betting of hot favourites.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.35% ) thanks Osesame, 3 of them weren't open yet when i last looked, included now. 2006-02-03 19:30 Club Brugge v Lierse 1.16 Belgian First Division 2006-02-05 17:15 Panathinaikos v Levadiakos 1.16 Hellenic National League ( i do seem to be missing this one, probably a change in spelling ) 2006-02-05 17:00 Standard Liege v La Louviere 1.25 Belgian First Division 2006-02-06 19:00 Olympiacos v Kallithea 1.12 Hellenic National League

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.35% )

A quick question, how do you determine what odds you'll take for a bet? For example, you might say you'll bet on FC Bayern Munich to beat Armenia Belefield if you get the price of 1.23 of higher. But why 1.23, how did you come to that conclusion.

It's a good question and there is no black and white answer. First of all the price i take must be above average. That is elementary. Then i look at the match and try to get a feel if it is a strong bet or normal bet. If it's a normal bet i'll only bet if i'm sure i got value, if it's a strong bet i may take a lower price, but still only if its above average. Usually the big names like Chelsea, Real Madrid, Fenerbache make up strong bets as you can reasonably rely on the quality of the team. Any team that's not top of its league or is facing a strong opponant i consider a normal bet. To quantify a team with average 1.20 i will take 1.25 on, however if its a top team like Chelsea i may go down as far as 1.23. But again it's not black and white, if on all the matches with average 1.20 you take 1.23 you will probably make a small profit, take 1.22 and i'm not so sure, take 1.25 and the yield should turn out as expected. The thing is that on each individual match i could be wrong. I'll never know. That's the problem with determining value. So i can only go on the result of the system overall, the result of a series of bets. That tells me that what i do on each individual bet works for me. If you have a go at this simply use Joe's price as a reference, if he's got average 1.20 and top price 1.25 then don't bet below 1.225 and you should be ok. Do this for the first 50 bets and then build on that experiance.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.35% ) Haven't had a look at Draw No Bet myself. It will probably only be available on a limited number of matches and it would surprise me if there was a price bias present. For a price bias to be present there has to be a big priced outsider that forms a big risk for the bookmaker AND there has to be a large financial turnover. Can't see that with DNB so can't see a reason for value to be present in the odds.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.35% ) Time to get cracking, not sure about the timing of it all as i'll be at Sandown saturday so may need to take some early prices. 2006-02-03 18:00 Fenerbahce v Rizespor 10 @ 1.23 Average 1.18 and nothing special, so normal selection for the system. 2006-02-03 19:30 Club Brugge v Lierse 10 @ 1.22 Average 1.18 but this is top against bottom team, in the league as well as the last 10 matches, so may take a lower price. 2006-02-04 17:15 Panathinaikos v Levadiakos 10 @ 1.19 ( it IS Panathinaikos who is favourite, and played the 4th ! ) Average 1.15 , normal selection for the system. 2006-02-04 18:30 PSV v Rhoda 10 @ 1.30 Newcomer on the list, average 1.25 going for 1.30, Rhoda is actually not that bad, middle of the league but PSV at home is tough to beat. 2006-02-05 14:00 Juventus v Udinese 10 @ 1.29 Average 1.23, normal selection. 2006-02-06 19:00 Olympiacos v Kallithea 10 @ 1.17 Average 1.12, normal selection. Potentials, Basically i've dropped any match with average over or close to 1.30, 2 more that i'm keeping an eye on. 2006-02-04 17:15 Man. United v Fulham Average 1.27 but not much spread in prices and form is close, i'll keep an eye on this one. 2006-02-05 18:00 Standard v La Louviere Average 1.26 but not much spread in odds and recent form not all that outspoken, i'll how the prices go.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.35% ) Well it took all my discipline not to look at Joe's email before posting the above :lol but the result is: Advised: Fenerbache, Panathinaicos, Olympiakos, Juventus And will probably be added: Brugges and PSV So pretty much on one line :ok . Joe is also looking at Hamilton in the Scottish Cup but i'll be giving that a miss. Scottish AND a Cup game, no thanks ;) .

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.35% ) Guy's, you must check the kick-off time for yourself, the bookies make plenty of mistakes on the early markets and change the dates and times along the way. I tend to stick to Betfair but they also make mistakes sometimes :\ .

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.35% ) I've got the flu at the moment, back in a few days. You know where to find the potentials.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.35% ) First to complete last weekend, as i was at Sandown it was a matter of setting my prices and then hope to get matched or not. Wasn't all that bad, got matched on most:

Fenerbache v Risespor	Lost		1.230
Club Brugge v Lierse	Won		1.230
Panathinaikos v Levadiakos	Won		1.190
PSV v Rhoda	Won		1.300
Juventus v Udinese	Won		1.290
Standard v Louveroise (posponed)	Posponed		1.300

Club Brugge only got half the stake matched and Olympiakos did not get matched at all, so missed a winner there. Fenerbache -10 Club Brugge +1.0952 Panathinaicos +1.805 PSV +2.85 Juventus +2.755 Profit at +42.77 , so a small step back over the weekend. But plenty of action tonight, going for :

Juventus v Parma @ 1.23 matched

Milan v Treviso @ 1.24

Celtic v Falkirk @ 1.21

Ajax v Willem II @ 1.25

Chelsea v Everton @ 1.33 matched

Sorry to be brief.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.35% ) no match on Ajax, it was close but i wasn't prepared to go below 1.25 Milan matched at 1.23 Celtic matched at 1.20

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.35% ) Juventus v Parma -10 :wall Milan v Treviso +2.185 Celtic v Falkirk +1.9 Chelsea v Everton +3.135 ( Ajax won 1-0 btw ) Total staked 1406.6 Total returned 1446.591267 Yield 1.028431158 2.84% Winners 123 Losers 23 Strike Rate 84% Current bank 139.9912667 Profit/Loss +39.99126667

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) The weekend potentials: 2006-02-11 14:30 Bremen v Kaiserslautern 1.28 German Bundesliga 2006-02-11 18:30 PSV v Heracles 1.16 Dutch First Division 2006-02-12 12:00(?) Galatasaray v Gaziantepspor 1.25 Turkish A League 2006-02-12 16:30 Bayern v Nurnberg 1.20 German Bundesliga 2006-02-12 17:30 AEK v Larissa 1.26 Hellenic National League 2006-02-12 19:30 Benfica v Penafiel 1.15 Portuguese SuperLiga 2006-02-12 13:00(?) Akratitos v Olympiacos 1.18 Hellenic National League Lets see....

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) 2006-02-11 14:30 Bremen v Kaiserslautern German Bundesliga Average about 1.25, its 2nd top against bottom of the league, should not go wrong, going to try for a good early price above 1.34. 2006-02-11 18:30 PSV v Heracles Dutch First Division Average at 1.17, Heracles not exactly bottom of the league but still no match for PSV at home, going for 1.22 2006-02-12 12:00(?) Galatasaray v Gaziantepspor Turkish A League Average at 1.26, no market on Betfair ? So will have another look later, will only go for this at a realy good price i think, Gaziantespor aren't good, but not that bad either. 2006-02-12 16:30 Bayern v Nurnberg German Bundesliga Avergae 1.20, normal top team against low team selection, going for 1.25 2006-02-12 17:30 AEK v Larissa Hellenic National League Average 1.24, should be a win for AEK but Larissa hasn't done that bad this season, will go for a top price around 1.30 but no less. 2006-02-12 19:30 Benfica v Penafiel Portuguese SuperLiga Average at 1.18, normal selection of top against bottom team, going for 1.24 2006-02-12 13:00(?) Akratitos v Olympiacos Hellenic National League ( i think this is the 13th but check for yourself over the weekend ) Average 1.18, this is top of the league against bottom and even away it should be eaaaasssy for Olympiacos, will look later as more prices come in.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) Bremen, really good early price isn't happening, going for 1.31 now wich should get matched PSV, market is dead, as usual, sticking with 1.22 Galatarasay, average now 1.27 , Betfair market has no meaningfull volume, let's see if i can get lucky with a really high price :dude Bayern, matched at 1.25 AEK, wow, got matched around 1.30 but the price has jumped up to 1.36 and a bit. Anyone know why ? Might put a bit more on actually. Benfica, someone took a nibble at my stake at 1.24 but gone down to 1.21 now, will just wait and see. Olympiakos, average at 1.18, going for 1.22 but price does need to move quite a bit, currently at 1.19 on Betfair.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) Bremen, matched @ 1.31 Galatarasay, matched @ 1.38/1.39 :loon Bayern, matched at 1.25 AEK, matched @ 1.30 ( still currently around 1.39 ) Benfica & Olympiakos, no change, still early. PSV, large amount trading @ 1.19 sticking with 1.22 will probably need to take this one to kick-off or early minutes in-running.

[davidmphill]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) Nice price on Galatasaray DP.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) thanks David, i even took out some small stakes a few times just so my "big" stake would remain first in line, oooo how naugty :spank Bremen just lost :wall

[Newton-Heath]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) Hey, DP! I've noticed that it's been almost a year or so since your first post about this system. So far it have made your bankroll grow almost 40 pct. Do you feel the system have given you the profit you expected? Last year I used a system that made my bankroll grow 400 pct. That's a lot since I only expected something between 30-50 pct. I've tried to use the system this year but some surprises and the odds have not left me with the same profit as last year. :beer

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) Aye NH, must admit i'm a little disappointed with the result so far, had hoped to have doubled the bank by now, just shows you never can tell. Still the season is not over and i do expect, or should i say hope :lol , for some nice profit to come. Strike rate is pretty low and if that goes up to the expected 88% it should turn out to be a good season. Now would someone go and tell the favourites THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO WIN.

[Newton-Heath]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) Hmm... Can you tell me how many of your lost bet that have enden with the underdog to win according to how many bets you made, and how many of your lost bet have ended with a draw?

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) 145 matches these being the losers: 2005-09-10 16:00 Falkirk v Rangers 1 1 2005-09-10 20:00 Real Madrid v Celta Vigo 2 3 2005-09-11 20:00 Standard v Beveren 1 3 2005-09-28 20:45 Porto v Artmedia Pet 2 3 2005-09-29 21:00 Marseille v GBA 0 0 2005-09-29 22:15 Sp Lisbon v Halmstads 1 2 2005-10-15 20:15 Ajax v Heracles 0 0 2005-10-22 19:00 Galatasaray v Denizlispor 1 1 2005-10-26 20:45 Livingston v Rangers 2 2 2005-10-29 16:00 Rangers v Inverness 1 1 2005-11-05 20:00 AZ Alkmaar v Heracles 2 2 2005-12-03 20:00 Standard v Roeselare 0 0 2005-12-21 20:00 Real Madrid v Santander 1 2 2006-01-07 16:00 Inverness CT v Ayr 1 1 2006-01-07 16:00 Nuneaton v Middlesbrough 1 1 2006-01-08 14:00 Clyde v Celtic 2 1 2006-01-08 15:00 Fulham v L Orient 1 2 2006-01-08 17:00 Burton v Man. United 0 0 2006-01-11 19:45 Livingston v Alloa 1 2 2006-01-22 13:30 Chelsea v Charlton 1 1 2006-01-28 16:00 Celtic v Dundee Utd 3 3 Fenerbache v Risespor 1 1 Juventus v Parma 1 1 15 draws, 8 losers

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) price on PSV went down to average, will have a go in-running as PSV at home is a strong bet, but an early goal and it's no bet :hope

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) :clap 1.21 matched after 30 min, ok lads, you can start scoring now :ok

[Kanga]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) Glad to see your up & about again DP - Night Nurse does wonders :loon

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) thanks Kanga, all systems go again :lol I've no idea what's going on with AEK, average still seems to be at 1.27 but bet365 have them at 1.36 and on Betfair you can get 1.44 :unsure

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) some nice winners there, back on track at +53 profit now, Olympiacos to come tomorrow.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) From the last group only Bremen lost, so... Total staked 1466.6 Total returned 1521.886267 Yield 1.037696895 3.77% Winners 128 Losers 23 Strike Rate 85% Current bank 155.2862667 Profit/Loss +55.28626667

[davidmphill]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) Good going DP. Shame about Bremen, they looked like a good thing too.