Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

[Datapunter]

The thread actually starts at post # 2 can't delete it as that would delete the whole thread, please start reading from post #2 sorry.

[MPLouis]

Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football This thread was partly inspired by my own experiences and ideas, and partly by the infamous 'The reality of sports betting/trading for a living' thread ... http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/130186-The-reality-of-sports-betting-trading-for-a-living I've been betting on football for a few years now, and have had successes and failures along the way. I've experienced trying to get an edge, and struggled with staking and discipline. If possible, I'd like to make enough from betting to live on. For me, £3,000 per month is enough to live on. For others it might not be enough, but it's a useful amount anyway. And of course, in the UK at least, it's tax free :) I'd like to analyse some of the steps required to earning the above amount, including acquiring an 'edge', bank required, bookmakers, staking (bet frequency and size) and discipline. Step 1 - Get an edge over the market In the long-term, everyone is competing in the same market, and to win, you have to get a decent 'edge' over everyone else. For the purpose of this exercise, let's say that you have been betting for a few years, and established enough of an edge over the market to give you 10% profit. Step 2 - How much do you need to stake each month? So, you want to earn £3,000 per month, and your bets produce 10% profit ('yield'). That means you need to stake a total of £30,000 per month to earn an average of £3,000 profit at 10% margin. Step 3 - Bet size and frequency You are betting £30,000 per month to produce £3,000 profit per month. How many bets will you have and how big will each bet be? One simple option would be to have one bet a day, which means each bet would be for £1,000 (30 x £1,000 = £30,000). Step 4 - Betting bank required In my experience, it is necessary to limit your stakes to a small percentage of your 'betting bank' to minimize the risk of 'going bust'. I usually try to stick to a maximum of 2% of bank per bet. That means, even if I lose 10 bets in a row, I have only lost 20% of my bank. If I was betting 10% of my bank each time, I would make more money in a good run, but 10 losers in a row would completely bankrupt me. So, let's say that I am betting 2% of bank each time, and my stake is £1,000. That means I need a bank of (100/2) x £1,000 = 50 x £1,000 = £50,000. Step 5 - Bookmakers Which bookmakers will allow you to have bets of £1,000? As far as I know, most of them. But at least some will have a maximum 'win' amount and depending on the odds of your bet, this might mean you can't stake £1,000. Another question is - which bookmakers will allow you to make a regular profit without being severely restricted? As far as know, very few ;) In practice, you could start off with well-know UK bookmakers. But if you make a regular profit, you will probably either regularly have to open new accounts or stick to bookmakers who don't operate a restrictive policy - such as Pinnacle, sbo and Betfair. Step 6 - Discipline Let's say you are managing to place thirty x £1,000 bets per month at 10% profit, and are earning £3,000 per month. How can you be sure you will carry on doing this? What if you have a losing run and lose 10 bets in a row. WIll you be tempted to double your stake to try to 'win it back'? Or if you win 10 bets in a row, will you be tempted to double your stake to double your winnings? Does your ego need to win constantly for you to feel good? Do you HAVE to win a bet because you need the money? Can you relax if you have a bad betting week? Most gamblers have problems with disclipine, and what you makes you think you are any different? Step 7 - The rewards If you CAN sustain some discipline, using the above example, the good news is that, if you are making £3,000 per month from a starting bank of £50,000, you would eventually make £36,000 in a year - an annual profit of 72%. If you can keep that sort of return going, you could do very well ... What do you think? What's your experience? Is it realistic to try to make £3,000 profit per month from betting on football? Have you done it yourself? (I've seen posts from people saying they know of people who make £250,000 per year from betting - quoting 'trading and arbing'). If you want to make serious money, is it better to get into arbing than straight betting? How do 'professionals' do it? How much money do you need to start with, and how often and how much do you bet? No matter how good you are, how do minimise your risk of bankruptcy AND make serious money without having a huge bank to start with? What is your experience of trying to make decent returns from betting? Did you win for a while and did things go wrong? Have you heard of other people making a good living from betting? How do they do it? All ** contributions welcome ** Note: The thread management committee for this thread has declared a preference for positive and constructive comments :D

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football I like the "get an edge" and how it's only given a short sentence. A 10% return? Equally as interesting and unlikely. I won't do you the diservice of answering the other points but to be abrupt...you're living on another planet. I hope that was both positive (because it could be far more negative :D) and constructive

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football And people making £250,000 a year trading will have nothing like a 10% return on their turnover. They will be turning over millions for probably less than a percentage or two at the most.

[Jase82]

Good luck with this ! If you can achieve three grand a month I vote you take over PL and become king :)

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football You also have to remember that having an edge is often not the hardest part. Getting your money on at that price can be an incredibly complex procedure. There are plenty people taking poor value for a few quid. Getting value for thousands at a time is a different ball game.

[Kolo]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Nobody is getting a significant amount of money down with a theoretical yield of 10%

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Insiders, fixers, some trap bettors and syndicates are. But that's beyond most of us. There is still good money to be made from a bit of manipulation but like any business you need capital and a good PR strategy (which also costs). I noticed over the last two seasons market manipulation moved from a low amount of highish profile matches to a large amount of low profile matches. But it isn't as easy as just shoving a lump on and watching the market move...it will correct itself. You need to be very sharp.

[Kolo]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football I doubt even the syndicates are. I have never met anybody in the industry who has anything close to that ROI

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football I suppose it's speculation but the syndicates that operate in high turnover matches are sometimes responsible for the large step changes you see. If someone turning over millions and making a few hundred grand by trading the spread can expect a return of anything up to 1% but normally no more than 0.5% at best then it isn't out with the realms to imagine someone taking a greater position (a large move) to get a larger return. Be it 5% or 10%, only they know but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it were the better side of 5.

[betting101]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

Step 1 - Get an edge over the market In the long-term, everyone is competing in the same market, and to win, you have to get a decent 'edge' over everyone else. For the purpose of this exercise, let's say that you have been betting for a few years, and established enough of an edge over the market to give you 10% profit.

This is possbile, my own current ROI swing between 107 - 115%

Step 2 - How much do you need to stake each month? So, you want to earn £3,000 per month, and your bets produce 10% profit ('yield'). That means you need to stake a total of £30,000 per month to earn an average of £3,000 profit at 10% margin.

My current stakes are unit based, 10 unit is 5% of the bank roll. 0.5% per unit

Step 3 - Bet size and frequency You are betting £30,000 per month to produce £3,000 profit per month. How many bets will you have and how big will each bet be? One simple option would be to have one bet a day, which means each bet would be for £1,000 (30 x £1,000 = £30,000).

I make between 2-10 bets per day

Step 4 - Betting bank required In my experience, it is necessary to limit your stakes to a small percentage of your 'betting bank' to minimize the risk of 'going bust'. I usually try to stick to a maximum of 2% of bank per bet. That means, even if I lose 10 bets in a row, I have only lost 20% of my bank. If I was betting 10% of my bank each time, I would make more money in a good run, but 10 losers in a row would completely bankrupt me. So, let's say that I am betting 2% of bank each time, and my stake is £1,000. That means I need a bank of (100/2) x £1,000 = 50 x £1,000 = £50,000.

I try to buid up the bank roll to be able to make a decent profit later. Don't really want to deposit big and rather build up.

Step 5 - Bookmakers Which bookmakers will allow you to have bets of £1,000? As far as I know, most of them. But at least some will have a maximum 'win' amount and depending on the odds of your bet, this might mean you can't stake £1,000. Another question is - which bookmakers will allow you to make a regular profit without being severely restricted? As far as know, very few In practice, you could start off with well-know UK bookmakers. But if you make a regular profit, you will probably either regularly have to open new accounts or stick to bookmakers who don't operate a restrictive policy - such as Pinnacle, sbo and Betfair.

Pinnacle, SBO, 5dimes, BetDSI, Betfair, Matchbook, Bet365

Step 6 - Discipline Let's say you are managing to place thirty x £1,000 bets per month at 10% profit, and are earning £3,000 per month. How can you be sure you will carry on doing this? What if you have a losing run and lose 10 bets in a row. WIll you be tempted to double your stake to try to 'win it back'? Or if you win 10 bets in a row, will you be tempted to double your stake to double your winnings? Does your ego need to win constantly for you to feel good? Do you HAVE to win a bet because you need the money? Can you relax if you have a bad betting week? Most gamblers have problems with disclipine, and what you makes you think you are any different?

Diciplin is VERY important

Step 7 - The rewards If you CAN sustain some discipline, using the above example, the good news is that, if you are making £3,000 per month from a starting bank of £50,000, you would eventually make £36,000 in a year - an annual profit of 72%. If you can keep that sort of return going, you could do very well ...

I guess that is the gift of being patient and trust your betting

What do you think? What's your experience? Is it realistic to try to make £3,000 profit per month from betting on football? Have you done it yourself? (I've seen posts from people saying they know of people who make £250,000 per year from betting - quoting 'trading and arbing'). If you want to make serious money, is it better to get into arbing than straight betting? How do 'professionals' do it? How much money do you need to start with, and how often and how much do you bet? No matter how good you are, how do minimise your risk of bankruptcy AND make serious money without having a huge bank to start with? What is your experience of trying to make decent returns from betting? Did you win for a while and did things go wrong? Have you heard of other people making a good living from betting? How do they do it?

It is realistic if you stick to the plan and don't get greedy. Greed is the key to failure. I'm making a decent return, but not that much yet. In most cases straight bets (value betting) are best...because if the odds drop you cna skip the bet but on the other hand if you are arbing in a fast moving market and one odds change while you set the other...you are screwed unless the odds were really good. But arbing does work for some people. As I mentioned above, I place anything between 2-10 bets per day. A good staking plan is important to prevent bankruptcy. My staking plan is secret, mostly because its one is a billion. But it works and makes sure I will NEVER lose my shirt I have been betting for over 15 years and never lost money so far but on the other hand it was few weeks back I decided to try to make this a part-time income instead of a hobby. Before that I only used to stake a dollar bet...and the aim at that time was just to try and beat the bookie..no aim to win a lot. I have heard of people saying they are making a living of it, but never seen one. But I will only do this as part-time regardless of how much I win A bank won't give you a loan in the future based on what you make on betting....right?

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football "This is possbile, my own current ROI swing between 107 - 115%" Clearly that is unsustainable. As you increase your stake that will rapidly decrease.

[MPLouis]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Sand87 and Kolo - you give the impression you know what you're talking about. If what I've outlined is unrealistic, what would be realistic? How do you make money from betting - assuming that you do? (I'm hoping we can have a constructive discussion here, not a competition to show who knows most :)).

[Datapunter]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

Nobody is getting a significant amount of money down with a theoretical yield of 10%

Clearly that is unsustainable. As you increase your stake that will rapidly decrease.

you give the impression you know what you're talking about

My impression is quite the opposite. Amount to bet should be based on risk, not on yield. Low risk justifies large stakes, even with a small yield. Size of stake has nothing to do with yield, it remains the same whatever stake size.

[Datapunter]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

There are 2 ways to approach systhematic betting. You determine your acceptable risk and take whatever profit you end up with. If done sensibly you should be able to keep on betting until the day you die making profit along the way. How much profit you cannot predict, you are even likely to have seasonal losses, but as long as your edge holds true you'll end up positive. You determine a target and take whatever risk you need to get there. No matter how you twist and turn this you risk everything 100% with each bet. Each time you bet, no matter how small you start out you commit yourself to betting everything in case there is a need for that. Otherwise you'll never stick to your target. Bancruptcy is a certainty, the only question is if it will happen in your lifetime. So... are you willing to risk losing your entire bank ? ( What will you do if that actually happens ? ) If the answer is 'Yes, fine.' then go for it, But otherwise unless you have the capital to reduce risk to a non-existent level forget it. And if you do have such capital, there's a lot better investment opportunities than betting. A key element to consider here is the human condition. Our descision making process always has an emotional dimention to it. If you are dependent on a football team winning a match in order for you to put food on the table your emotions will affect you descision making process. And NOT in a positive way. The mechanism will have many similarities to the things that cause gambling addictions. You trade objectivity for hope and denial. It's a hard way to make a living.

[Datapunter]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

Step 1: You determine how you will create an edge. Step 2: You test your system using data from hundreds of competiutions over dozens of seasons. (the data IS available with a bit of effort) Step 3: If the edge gets confirmed, somehow, determine the expected Yield and Strike rate. Step 4: Using a simple Monte Carlo simulation determine the levels of risk at various stake sizes. ( risk of bancrupcy, risk of no profit for a given period, risk of missing bets due to low cash flow ) Step 5: Choose, !choose!, a level of risk you are comfortable with. ( tricky one this ) Step 6: Calculate the expected profit. ( possibly over given periods of time) Step 7: Calculate the required bank size. ( and cash flow required to cover all open bets at any given moment in time ) Step 8: Determine what to do if either the expected profit is too small or the bank is too big. Unless you can increase the yield, you will need to increase the risk, no way around that. I'll gladly go through each step for you as long as you make the first one. Without that all that follows is just a bunch of letters on a computer screen. p.s. a yield of 10% on football is highly optimistic.

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

Size of stake has nothing to do with yield, it remains the same whatever stake size.

Provided you can get matched - which, with larger stakes becomes a task in itself.

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

Sand87 and Kolo - you give the impression you know what you're talking about. If what I've outlined is unrealistic' date=' what [b']would be realistic? How do you make money from betting - assuming that you do? (I'm hoping we can have a constructive discussion here, not a competition to show who knows most :)).

The realistic approach is to find some sort of edge. There is little point hammering out staking details or when to withdraw or side issues like that unless you know with confidence that you're going to beat commission. Some people find an edge crunching numbers, some use market/punter pyschology and some try to calculate their own prices and take the market on or use one market to calculate the price in another. The software in the markets no is very clever and it's getting smarter all the time but that doesn't mean there aren't opportunities. You don't need to be especially clever to find them but an ability to think outside the box or to delve into ideas that others are ignoring is usually a good place to start. I personally started out by market making side markets using the prices from main markets. That's a dead duck now usually unless you are prepared to go where the bots don't. Now I am far more interested in the psychology of the punters and mainly focus on Match Odds. It's less demanding, less time consuming and more rewarding but constantly changing. I would forget about having any goals just now other than looking for a little edge. Analyse it without rose tinted specs and then go out there with £2 stakes and see what happens. Markets react to money and so what may look good without having money on may not look so good when you're money is matched. When you're showing a profit over a decent sample size relating to the odds your matching then scale up and once you scale up be prepared for your margins to rapidly decline and your turnover to rapidly increase. And never forget about the commission. It will affect you a lot more than some people appreciate!! Have an Excel sheet that shows you the odds you have calculated and then the true odds after you've paid 5% commission. The difference may surprise you. And then remember that others are only on 2%.

[betting101]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

"This is possbile, my own current ROI swing between 107 - 115%" Clearly that is unsustainable. As you increase your stake that will rapidly decrease.

Nope, like I mentioned I use a unit system...the ROI will not decrease as the stake increase...because everything is in steady proportion

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football I know it's a personal question but what size stake are you using just now to give you a return of 111%?

[only1woz]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football I may not be getting this, but from what I can see, his stake size is of no relevance. If he stakes £1 and wins back £1.11 profit, then his return is 111% If he stakes £100 and wins back £111 profit, then his return is 111%. I hope I'm getting that right?:)

[Datapunter]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Again, what are you on about, a yield of 11% is 11%, it is totally irrelevant if you bet 1 euro or 10000 euro's, please tell me you understand that most basic aspect of betting.

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Yes, I do. What I'm trying to get at is how he plans on getting matched - it's a simple fact that the more you turnover the lower your margin. He just said his ROI is 111% - do you think he is making any meaningful amount with a figure like that?

[Datapunter]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football You seem to have 'yield' and 'profit' mixed up. Whatever turnover, whatever stake size, matched or not your 'yield' always remains the same, Stake does not change that. Stake size does influence the amount of profit that can be made, (See point 8 in my list) but that is a result of a) the available liquidity in the marketplace and b) the level of risk you are comfortable with. A third factor is frequency. You can make loads on profit with low risk and low stakes as long as you manage to turn over a lot of bets in a short period of time. Certainly possible with Horse racing, and to some extent Tennis and Football. So without knowing and considering all 3 factors, liquidity, risklevel, frequency it's pointless to make any statement based on an amount of yield alone. 10% yield with 10 bets a week, or 1% yield with 100 bets a day, i know which one i want to have. There is one conclusion you can make from this MPLouis... If it is your intention to make substantial amounts of profit you need to look for an edge in sports, events, markets where there is high liquidiy and frequency. In other words loads of money being bet and loads of events to bet on. Football, Horse racing, Tennis, Basketball, Baseball. Leave the rest.

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football I'm trying with each post to ultimately discuss profit, which is all that matters IMO. If you can make £8 an hour using £1 stakes then that is great. But in the real world, unless you can scale up massively or automate the fact is you would be better off working minimum wage in McDonalds. That's a pretty impressive ROI. But in real life, it won't get you very far. Do you catch my drift?

[Kolo]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football I can't imagine a market where you are going to sustain a triple digit ROI over a significant sample. Data I what sand is trying to say is that profit is much more important than ROI so that is what we should be most concerned with

[betting101]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Sand87 and Kolo, its pretty clear here that you are new to the betting world. Kolo, the triple digit ROI you are talking about...I don't think you understod it...f.ex ROI 111% mean just that I make 11 cents profit on the dollar in the long-run. Profit is NOT much more important when you talk to a fellow punter...all that matters is the ROI...Everyone stake what they can afford...and should not get blinded by seeing someone elses profit. I don't need to stake much to make a decent profit neither...as long as a book allows me to stake 250 pounds per bet/ 4 bets per day, I can generate about 3000 pound on the average per month like what the OP wants to do....most large bookmakers will allow that much....

[betting101]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football And what I stake is irrelevant for other than me

[Machine]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Kolo ROI is profit.... (return on Investment) :eyes Yield is the amount of times your initial investment is turned over to produce that profit.

[The Saint]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

Sand87 and Kolo, its pretty clear here that you are new to the betting world. Kolo, the triple digit ROI you are talking about...I don't think you understod it...f.ex ROI 111% mean just that I make 11 cents profit on the dollar in the long-run. Profit is NOT much more important when you talk to a fellow punter...all that matters is the ROI...Everyone stake what they can afford...and should not get blinded by seeing someone elses profit. I don't need to stake much to make a decent profit neither...as long as a book allows me to stake 250 pounds per bet/ 4 bets per day, I can generate about 3000 pound on the average per month like what the OP wants to do....most large bookmakers will allow that much....

Not if you are winning. In fact, in my experience, if you bet that amount with one bookmaker, they will limit your stake even if you lose!! II'm guessing you are a football punter. I can only talk from a horse racing point of view. Good Luck to you either way.