Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th

[BillyHills]

3.05 Doncaster: Scarbrough Stakes (Listed) (5f) Plenty in with place chances here but the race is all about the favourite Sole Power who should get back on the winning thread in this company as long as the ground stays firm enough. He should get a good tow from Masamah and take over inside the final furlong. If he runs below par then it might be worth taking a chance on Kingsgate Native who makes his comeback for trainer Robert Cowell and I’m sure Masamah will hang on in there and could grab a place. Selections: 3pts Sole Power 5/2 >William Hill 1pt Kingsgate Native 7/1 Ladbrokes Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/doncaster-betting-sole-power-to-appreciate-drop-in-class-at-doncaster-in-scarbrough-stakes

[Lodge]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th Kempton - 18.45 - Sekumkum @ 3/1 Bet365 Bolted up on handicap debut off a lowly mark of 56 at Wolverhampton last month and i don't see why he can't overcome a 9lb hike in the weights especially with 5lb claim of Toby Atkinson negating that this time around. The form of that success has also been franked with the 4th and 7th winning since and the 2nd and 5th horses coming very close too. Nice draw in stall 4 which can be important at this course and looks the one to beat.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th *Sole Power - Doncaster 3:05* Without question the best horse by a good bit in this field if they all ran to their best. Johnny Murtagh a big positive to be getting the ride, and was drawn on the wrong side for the Nunthorpe, was a whisker behind Bated Breath on that side. Has won over this trip 4 times and drops from a Group 1 to a Listed race. Should take a lot of beating. Lynam has brought 4 horses to Donny before, and had 1 winner @ 7/1. Will be disappointed if it doesn't win. *1 Point WIN @ 2/1 Ladbrokes BOG*

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th Doncaster 2pm I like the look of Red Avenger here, won really well last time out under Fanning and has Buick on board today. I think a few of these will be inconvenienced by quick ground so I'm hoping the rain stays away. While others have some half decent form this one looks very progressive and better than the bare form of the last win as it got the job done very easily. Full preview of the race below. Selections: 4pts WIN – Red Avenger 3-1 Bet365 (BOG) 1pt WIN – Hipster 8-1 Bet365 (BOG) http://www.punterslounge.com/doncaster-betting-red-avenger-to-get-favourite-backers-off-to-winning-start

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th 25/1 Ladbrokes on Partner is too bigger price in the last at Donny. Has ran two creditable races since joining Noel Wilson who's not in bad form at the moment. Form of his last race is better than it looks, Ballista hosed up and then won again today comfortably in a conditions race against some 90/100+ rated sorts. Partner stayed on well enough from midfield, considering the winner made all and he came from stall 12 that was a decent effort. Back down to below his last winning mark with conditions not a problem and a strong pace likely, i think he'll go well at 25/1.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th Doncaster 2.30pm A race that probably revolves around Ribaat. Cost a fortune at the sales but might need softer ground to be seen to best effect. Looks to be 3 that have a chance and 3 no hopers really. Tricky race and only small stakes for this one. Full preview below: Selection: 1pt WIN – Cour Valant 9-2 PaddyPower (BOG) http://www.punterslounge.com/doncaster-betting-ribaat-could-be-a-smart-sort-but-possible-value-with-cour-valant

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th Doncaster 3.05pm - Valbchek - 1pt WIN - 7/1 William Hill Really respect Sole Power here dropped in class but these sprinters are much of a muchness and I prefer the chances of the unexposed Valbchek now they realise it is a sprinter and not a 7f horse. Won 2 sprints over 6f and beat horses like Van Ellis, Swiss Spirit (listed winner since) and Samitar (Group 1 winner since). It was one paced in the final furlong last time out over 7f and now drops back to 5f today. There was something in last weeks Weekender about Noseda having a great record when using the top jockeys and he has booked Buick for this ride today. It only gets a pound from higher rated horses like Sole Power and Kingsgate Native but they have been out of form. 7-1 looks more than fair.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th Swedish Sailor 4.10pm Doncaster - 2pts WIN 5-2 Bet365 (BOG) Looks like an ideal opportunity to return to the track with a win. I'll be at Donny today and if it looks fit in the parade ring i expect it to be well backed. It has only won a maiden but beat Noble Mission by 5 lengths so that form has worked out well over time. Beaten Up hasn't looked at its best, Cai Shen won a poor renewal 12 months ago and I expect Modeyra to find one too good after a break. The outsider has no chance on official ratings so it's worth taking a chance on fitness of the Godolphin runner with Barzalona on board. They have a good record in this race too and can ready one first time out.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th Although CONFESSIONAL (15:05) does admittedly have a little bit to do to bridge the gap with the principles such as Sole Power, I do think he’s continuing to improve and in a race that’ll be run to suit, and a more suitable test than last time out where he stood little chance given patient tactics around Beverley, he’s value here at double figure odds. He had looked like he was a high-class handicapper on his efforts in 2011, including here when narrowly defeated in the Portland Handicap by Nocturnal Affair over 6f from a mark of 95. However, Confessional has continued to improve this season after picking up a handicap over the minimum trip at Chester (won well, albeit on soft ground), with very creditable efforts in the Temple Stakes at Haydock on fast ground and going very close in a Group 3 at Sandown. It’s fair to say that he’s made the transition from handicaps to becoming a solid performer at Group 2-3 level, which on most occasions would mean he’d have a fairly solid chance in this listed grade. Today’s renewal is far from a run of the mill listed contest though, especially with the likes of Sole Power being a top-class sprinter on his day, with the likes of Nocturnal Affair and Kingsgate Native falling under a similar banner. That being said, I do think there’s plenty of potential in Confessional being able to pick up a race such as this, especially today’s race. They’ll go a good pace here, with the likes of Noble Storm, Masamah, Timeless Call, Jwala and Roicead all favouring front-running tactics, which should ensure that they’ll be no hanging about. Confessional need this to be seen at his best and although it’ll benefit the clear favourite as well, it should ensure that the selection at least gets the race run to suit. He’s still in form too, as his run in the Beverley Bullet needs marking up from the bare form of 3rd. Making ground from off the pace at that venue is extremely difficult and he finished very well. Doncaster doesn’t have as testing a finish but is much kinder to hold-up types and Confessional has solid form here in the past as well, so this test should be much more suitable. Tim Easterby just recently got off the cold-list on Monday and that’s obviously encouraging as they had been going through a rough patch. With a race run to suit, adaptable on any ground and on a more forgiving track for his run-style, Confessional is definitely overpriced, as I’d have him at around the 8/1 mark. Sole Power is a solid favourite and worthy of respect, but if any rain falls in the morning this would hinder his chance and I’m not sure he’s quite as good as he once was. Those backing Kingsgate Native at single-figure odds without inside information are crazy in my view, especially as he looked gone at the game on his efforts last season and it will need a spectacular training performance to get him right after such an absence in a race this competitive. I can see where the view is coming from regarding Confessional and the possibility that “he’ll find a couple too good” but I just feel he’s still an improving sprinter, who is overpriced on his current form and is less fussy regarding ground conditions than some of these, especially with their being the possibility of rain. Bets 15:05 Doncaster – Confessional; 2pts @ 12/1 BetVictor, Paddy Power (bog)

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th 18.15 Kempton: Napoleon's Muse @ 12/1 VC Lightly raced sort who won her sole start on All-Weather and who brings some fine form into the race. She made all in a good class 4 Handicap at Salisbury lto when she went a good gallop and had everyone 3f out off the bridle while travelling smoothly herself. She finished 3rd in the end but less then two lengths beaten. A fine effort and the Handicapper raised her mark by 4lb but the return to the AW should suit and she takes a step down in class as well. 20.45 Kempton: Rock Song @ 4/1 Paddy Power He showed fine improvement for his first start on All-Weather recently at Kempton, travelling well but had to race wide to get a clear run but stayed on very well in the closing stages. No chance with the good winner but still finished strongly hands and heels ridden. He's down to a very tempting mark and should run well today as he get a chance by the handicapper. 21.15 Kempton: Dana's Present @ 4/1 Boylesports Still a maiden but looked very much improved for the return to the All-Weather lto at Kempton. He travelled like a dream in the hands of Richard Hughes and looked the likely winner 2f out, but found himself then short of room and finished only 3rd. He would have gone very close with a clear run. He stays on the same mark what should give him a big chance here today. William Buick booked is another plus.

[egg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th Six Wives ~5.15 Doncaster 20/1 (Coral) Im going to have a small each way play on S.Dixons mare today. She won off a mark of 74 over Beverleys 5f on g/f three runs back, making all she hosed in in the Class 5 event. Next run was at Goodwood off a mark of 80, class 3 on good to soft over 6f where she tried to make all again and was cheekily beat into 2nd place by My Sharona whom ran ok the other day after stumbling early on. Six wives then ran in the Class1 Beverley Bullet where she finished one from last after weakening and eased, she did beat one that day and that was Cheviot who won next time out. Todays Class 4 event is much more her level and at 20/1 she looks fair value to try and make all from stall 17. .5pt e/w

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th 5.45 Kempton Zing Wing changed hands after last run in a seller, could have been slightly flattered by that result with several of the market leaders under performing and doesn’t appeal as an obvious sort to back that effort up. Mishrif showed some better signs last time out on turf and has slipped to 3lb below last CD winning mark, not the best strike rate in the world and widest draw far from ideal here. Ghost Train comes from the Johnston yard which can do no wrong at the moment but he has yet to show he stays 7f in a few starts over this trip so probably best watched. Dvinksy still as tough as ever and generally consistent, holds no secrets from the handicapper these days and probably isnt one to go all in as a win only bet especially with other prominent runners in the field. Sunshine Always hadn’t been seen for nearly a year before making a reasonable reappearance over CD when track was riding slow, been given a chance to recover from that and should strip fitter. Plenty of pace in this race so could just be setup for a finisher and although losing run has seriously mounted up but dropped to a very dangerous mark if building on recent effort. The other that interests me is Bassett Road who is another that hasn’t won since his first 2 of his first 3 starts but is another that has dropped a long way in the weights and showed better signs last time out over this ourse when finishing off well from a very long way back, unfortunately this is a yard that do like to gamble and perhaps fiddle so has to tread carefully with and wide draw not ideal but would be no surprise to see a good run should the money go down. 1pt win Bassett Road 8/1 pp 1pt win Sunshine Always 8/1 pp 8.45 Kempton Several of these have shown very little form recently and are easy to cross off. Silver Lace scored by a short margin last time out but won comfortably really and looked to be going on at the finish so this extra furlong could bring about more improvement off just a 3lb higher mark. That race is working out well with both 3^rd and 4^th winning next time out but price reflects her chances. Trusting has run his best races around here without winning but appears to have gone off the boil failing to beat a rival last time out and wide draw off putting. Riviera Romance has found some level of form in low level handicaps on the AW but has shaped as if in need of further and wide draw not helpful here. Lean On Pete bounced back from a couple of lesser turf efforts last time with two good efforts back at Wolverhampton, finished runner up to a potentially well handicapped horse last time out and did clear best of those prominent, handicapper taken a chance by not putting him up in the weights and well drawn here today and should go well. For me Tweet Lady is over priced, this is her first drop down into class 6 company after a slightly patchy season, but easy to excuse latest running at Chepstow on dreadfully tough ground after a short break so should strip fitter for that. She showed some useful form around here last autumn and dropped 2lb below her last winning mark and could easily bounce back on this surface. 1.5pt e/w Tweet Lady 18/1 vcbet 1pt win Lean On Pete 6/1 vcbet

[smith17]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th 14.30 Doncaster: Cour Valant, 4/1 Boylesports, win Cour Valant won impressively lto. He made all that day and if the same tactics are employed today he could get an easy lead. Third and fifth that day won well nto. In his first start he finished a length behind Burning Blaze. Five of the seven horses CV finished ahead of have won since (one hasn't run). Both of his runs have been over 6f so today's distance won't be a problem while today's good to firm ground should suit as his first run was on similar. Trainer Noel Quinlan is having a decent season, as is jockey Neil Callan.

[smith17]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th

14.30 Doncaster: Cour Valant' date=' 4/1 Boylesports, win Cour Valant won impressively lto. He made all that day and if the same tactics are employed today he could get an easy lead. Third and fifth that day won well nto. In his first start he finished a length behind Burning Blaze. Five of the seven horses CV finished ahead of have won since (one hasn't run). Both of his runs have been over 6f so today's distance won't be a problem while today's good to firm ground should suit as his first run was on similar. Trainer Noel Quinlan is having a decent season, as is jockey Neil Callan.

:nana 15.05 Doncaster: Roicead, 18/1 Bet365, e/w Roicead finished last of eight lto but that was his first run in nearly ten months and it should put him in better condition for today. In his last run of 2011 he finished third in a group three. Before that he won two competitive handicaps impressively. If he is in top condition today, then he is more than capable of running into a place and with a bit of luck he could win it although Sole Power is a worthy short priced favourite. Trainer W McCreery is in decent form, with a few nice priced places in the last couple of weeks. He has only sent twelve runners over to the UK in the last five years and three of them won to show a level stakes profit of £29. Declan McDonogh is in the saddle. 16.10 Doncaster: Swedish Sailor, 2/1 Boylesports, win Swedish Sailor has only had one run but he won that very impressively. The runner up in that race was Frankel's brother Noble Mission who has since won a group three and a listed race, while also been narrowly beaten in a group two. The main danger today is Beaten Up but he has disappointed in both his runs this year and is worth taking on. Three year olds have a good record in this race winning four of the last five. Trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni has been in good form recently having had a slow start to the season. Talented young jockey Mikael Barzalona is having good season and has been in great form recently. Trainer and jockey also have a good partnership together. 17.15 Doncaster: Noodles Blue Boy, 22/1 William Hill, e/w Noodles Blue Boy carries top weight in this competitive handicap but he has a decent seven pound claimer on board. He won off this mark four runs ago with the same jockey. The ground will suit and he is at his best over 5f. He drops in class today after running three times in class three races. Lto he was last of 14 but I don't think the track suited and he had the worst draw. The two before that he ran ok and wasn't beaten far although he was never really competitive in either. I think now he is back in company which he is better suited in and at a track that should suit he will hopefully produce a much im

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th

*Sole Power - Doncaster 3:05* Without question the best horse by a good bit in this field if they all ran to their best. Johnny Murtagh a big positive to be getting the ride, and was drawn on the wrong side for the Nunthorpe, was a whisker behind Bated Breath on that side. Has won over this trip 4 times and drops from a Group 1 to a Listed race. Should take a lot of beating. Lynam has brought 4 horses to Donny before, and had 1 winner @ 7/1. Will be disappointed if it doesn't win. *1 Point WIN @ 2/1 Ladbrokes BOG*

What a turn of foot! :nana 5/2 SP too......... Crazy price, on best form was miles ahead of the rest.

[markmywords]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th Very impressive finish by Sole Power there. Thought is was boxed 1 1/2 out. Almost Frankel like. Nearly.

[nickf88]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th

What a turn of foot! :nana 5/2 SP too......... Crazy price, on best form was miles ahead of the rest.

Totally agree mate, unbelievable turn of foot, my heart was in my mouth a few furlongs from home but has bolted up! :ok

[stewartd14]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th Good calls with Cour Valant and Sole Power guys :clap

[egg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th

Six Wives ~5.15 Doncaster 20/1 (Coral) Im going to have a small each way play on S.Dixons mare today. She won off a mark of 74 over Beverleys 5f on g/f three runs back, making all she hosed in in the Class 5 event. Next run was at Goodwood off a mark of 80, class 3 on good to soft over 6f where she tried to make all again and was cheekily beat into 2nd place by My Sharona whom ran ok the other day after stumbling early on. Six wives then ran in the Class1 Beverley Bullet where she finished one from last after weakening and eased, she did beat one that day and that was Cheviot who won next time out. Todays Class 4 event is much more her level and at 20/1 she looks fair value to try and make all from stall 17. .5pt e/w

don't know if anyone saw this race today but Six Wives finished 5th (typical) and in my eyes a tad unlucky. Drawn 17 she led up but only a few stayed with her on the rail and when the race developed down the centre she just plugged on. Plus Dixons other runner in the race won it at 20's. She should win again soon enough.

[egg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th Bit late in the day but a small e/w play on FLYING KITTY in the 9.15 at Kempton may pay dividends, Runs well at the track and worth another go over this distance. 28/1 looks big. .5pt e/w

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th

don't know if anyone saw this race today but Six Wives finished 5th (typical) and in my eyes a tad unlucky. Drawn 17 she led up but only a few stayed with her on the rail and when the race developed down the centre she just plugged on. Plus Dixons other runner in the race won it at 20's. She should win again soon enough.

I was on course and had also backed it along with Noodles Blue Boy. It ran well enough and I thought it might grab 4th. Should be capable of winning one around this level like you say.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th

Good calls with Cour Valant and Sole Power guys :clap

Murtagh did well on Sole Power to nick that in the last 75yds or so and ended up winning the race going away full of running. Unfortunately I thought he was awful on Beaten Up. Another of those frustrating races with no pace and it was fighting to bowl along but he was trying to restrain it off a crawl and never put the horse in the race. On the flip side of that the Dazzler gave the outsider a belting ride on a horse that shouldn't really have won that race, set off at a crawl, kicked at the right time and stayed better than the disappointing Beaten Up and the 2 Godolphin horses.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th Forgot to mention we saw a woman at Donny dressed up in the parade ring. She was 65 going on 21 and looked like a Cher tribute, lacy gloves, bright red perm, leather jacket, red heels, sunglasses. Surely her friends need to tell her she looks bloody ridiculous. Her face actually looked like a latex mask you get from the joke shop. Whoneedsrio even got a picture, I'm hoping he posts it on his thread. :eek

[egg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday Sept 12th

Forgot to mention we saw a woman at Donny dressed up in the parade ring. She was 65 going on 21 and looked like a Cher tribute' date=' lacy gloves, bright red perm, leather jacket, red heels, sunglasses. Surely her friends need to tell her she looks bloody ridiculous. Her face actually looked like a latex mask you get from the joke shop. Whoneedsrio even got a picture, I'm hoping he posts it on his thread. :eek[/quote'] She was on ATR being interviewed, she is the artist responsible for the horse painted with pictures of champions of the past. I think Donny bought the sculpture/painting.