Champions League > September 19th

[godmato]

Re: Champions League > September 19th Braga - CFR Cluj Missing players: Braga - CFR Cluj – Deac (wing), Ronny (striker), Vass (def midf), Sare (def midf), Maftei (cen def) Important fact: Many players played for both clubs and will meet again in this game. Beto (keeper – Braga) was on loan last season at CFR and won the title with them. Felgueiras (keeper – CFR Cluj) is bought from Braga after last season was on loan at another romanian club Brasov. Diogo Valente was Braga player 2 seasons ago and played 10 games. Bastos was Braga’s player 2 seasons ago also. Coach Peseiro was in charge at another Romanian club Rapid 3 seasons ago and after a bad start quitted the team. Funny thing is that defender of CFR Cluj was at Rapid when Peseiro was in charge and they actually beat CFR 1-0 in championship with Maftei as regular for Rapid. CFR has many Portugal players or that played in Portugal championship like Cadu (captain) , Ivo Pinto, Rui Pedro, Sougou, Godemeche. So clubs are a little bit “friends”. Form: Hard to rate form of both teams especially by last games when is well know that mind of players is concentrated more on Champions League game instead of domestic league. Still Braga lost last game away at Pacos Ferreira while CFR won 1-0 away at Dinamo Bucuresti. Points earned: This is first game in this group. Other teams here are Manchester United and Galatasaray. Team’s play: CFR Cluj is an “active” team in Romanian championship. They hold the ball and try possession. In European cups things change completely. In both away games so far this season in Champions League early stages they were a “transition” team. Meaning that they defend with 10 players behind the ball and try counters as fast as possible. Because they have fast players like Sougou or Bastos, the team makes good and fast transition of the ball and all goals were scored from counters. Set pieces: CFR Cluj is tall team. They are always dangerous offensive at set pieces. They have some good takers also . They hit offensive @30%. Defensive CFR is poor. Because coach always rotating and defenders are doing the job but rest of the team does not defend well. So far in early stages CFR Cluj showed good potential defensively at set pieces. Goals: Teams can not be compared by how many goals they scored in domestic league or how they scored it. The fact that total line is set to 2.5 means bookies know nothing about it. Is first game in this group. Both teams will be cautious. None will open the game (at least not before 70 minute), so only a big mistake in defense, set pieces goal or big mistake by some player will open the score. Pull a trigger to my head and I choose under here. But will stay out of it because s first game. For sure CFR will go to play bunker defense and may be hit on counter. They scored in both away game so far in early stages of Champions League competition but Basel isn’t what used to be anymore and Czech team was pressed after first leg result to play offensive. Useful balls inside 16 metres opponent area: CFR has around 10 this number against teams that defends with 10 player behind the ball. And this is good number for Romanian championship. But I believe number will be worst in this game. Both will play cautious. CFR won’t go attacking and number will be lower than 5 I believe. This means few chances for CFR. Things noticed in teams last games: CFR is a team that is nice to be watched. They play real football, attractive and attacking! Still lately because of Champions League qualifiers games coach rotated a lot. He has deep squad and great players for Romanian level. Because of that their only goal was to score one more goal that the opponent. But for this game things change of course. Despite the fact that won both games away from home in early stages with same score 2-1 at Basel and Liberec, CFR played different style than in domestic league. Is group stage here and no need for Braga to open the game so soon. I doubt that CFR will score here. But miracles I have seen enough with this team and by far the biggest surprise was the 2-1 away win at AS Roma seasons ago. Personally will wait for live bet in this game. Gotta see how Braga is approaching this game, and can try some -0.75 or -0.5. GL!

[Riedle13]

Re: Champions League > September 19th I don't think the Man Utd v Galatasaray match is an obvious home win like most suggest, and I'll be taking the great odds on offer for Gala to draw or win. The current Galatasaray team are very attacking and play with a never say die attitude and won't just sit back like so many visitors to Old Trafford. They have a series of strikers who know how to score, backed up by Melo who offers a lot of support, and Selcuk Inan who is developing into a fine creative midfielder who wouldn't look out of place in a major league. Their style of play makes them vulnerable at the back. But Semih Kaya is one of the best young defenders around, and Cris has plenty of Champions League experience. They lack experience which might be their downfall at this stage. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a high scoring draw.

[danhardy]

Re: Champions League > September 19th Braga - CFR Cluj You could call this sister clubs, Braga's actual goalkeeper did play for CFR for a full season and CFR's actual goalkeeper is signed from Braga In total 4 of CFR's players are ex Braga players. CFR has 7 portuguese players in their squad but I think only 3 or 4 will play tonight. I know they didn't start to well in the domestic league, but CL is a different story and as I said in a post on the first page they had 4 games against the champions of Czech Replublic and against the champions of Switzerland Basel to qualify and they won all 4. Usually they have a nice to watch style of play and they like attacking, they're not the team to park the bus, I hope they wont start to do that today. Even if they hope to get a draw, I don't think they'll be able to get it just by defending and I can see them scoring. There's not much else I can say as godmato did a pretty good job in the above post just that I don't agree that CFR will use "bunker defence", but we'll see... my picks: BTTS @ 2.1 draw @ 4.3(low stakes) both with bet365 I edited the post to add a 3rd bet, this is more a gut bet because I can't offer much reasoning for it, but just for the record. CFR Cluj games in CL [TABLE=class: wikitable]

[TR] [TH]Club [/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Away [/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left]Roma[/TD] [TD]1 – 3[/TD] [TD]2 – 1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]0 – 0[/TD] [TD]1 – 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left]Bordeaux[/TD] [TD]1 – 2[/TD] [TD]0 – 1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left]Basel[/TD] [TD]2 – 1[/TD] [TD]0 – 1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left]Roma[/TD] [TD]1 – 1[/TD] [TD]1 – 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left]Bayern Munich[/TD] [TD]0 – 4[/TD] [TD]2 – 3 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] This games are from 2008-2009 and 2010-2011 Both times they won the first game, and my gut is telling me they have a big chance to do the same today. CFR Cluj to win @ 7.5 with bet365 but there are other bookies offering 8+

[pinko_rp]

Re: Champions League > September 19th I've picked Valencia + 2 goals Asian handicap (odds 1.5 @ offsidebet) in a combo with a goal for Burnley and over 1.5 goals in Braga-Cluj. Bayern are the biggest favourites but they have 2-3 new players in their squad and they will need time to stick together. Last year Bayern won only one game at home with more than a goal diffence: 27/09/11 UCL Bayern München 2 - 0 Manchester City 02/11/11 UCL Bayern München 3 - 2 Napoli 22/11/11 UCL Bayern München 3 - 1 Villarreal 13/03/12 UCL Bayern München 7 - 0 Basel 03/04/12 UCL Bayern München 2 - 0 Olympique Marseille 17/04/12 UCL Bayern München 2 - 1 Real Madrid 19/05/12 UCL Bayern München 1 - 1P Chelsea In the same time Valencia lost only once with more one goal their away games in their last 2 Champions league's campaigns: 14/09/10 UCL Bursaspor 0 - 4 Valencia 20/10/10 UCL Rangers 1 - 1 Valencia 07/12/10 UCL Manchester United 1 - 1 Valencia 09/03/11 UCL Schalke 04 3 - 1 Valencia 13/09/11 UCL Genk 0 - 0 Valencia 19/10/11 UCL Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 1 Valencia 06/12/11 UCL Chelsea 3 - 0 Valencia

[The Undertaker]

Re: Champions League > September 19th

I don't think the Man Utd v Galatasaray match is an obvious home win like most suggest, and I'll be taking the great odds on offer for Gala to draw or win. The current Galatasaray team are very attacking and play with a never say die attitude and won't just sit back like so many visitors to Old Trafford. They have a series of strikers who know how to score, backed up by Melo who offers a lot of support, and Selcuk Inan who is developing into a fine creative midfielder who wouldn't look out of place in a major league. Their style of play makes them vulnerable at the back. But Semih Kaya is one of the best young defenders around, and Cris has plenty of Champions League experience. They lack experience which might be their downfall at this stage. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a high scoring draw.

this analysis doesnt fill me with much confidence m8. To go againzt Utd at home. They have been conceeding alot against fulham and southampton, but wigan went there and got a good whipping at the weekend. Galatass will need to be at their best tonight to stand a chance of getting a point. Dont waste your money..

[Fedar]

Re: Champions League > September 19th

I've picked Valencia + 2 goals Asian handicap (odds 1.5 @ offsidebet) in a combo with a goal for Burnley and over 1.5 goals in Braga-Cluj. Bayern are the biggest favourites but they have 2-3 new players in their squad and they will need time to stick together. Last year Bayern won only one game at home with more than a goal diffence: 27/09/11 UCL Bayern München 2 - 0 Manchester City 02/11/11 UCL Bayern München 3 - 2 Napoli 22/11/11 UCL Bayern München 3 - 1 Villarreal 13/03/12 UCL Bayern München 7 - 0 Basel 03/04/12 UCL Bayern München 2 - 0 Olympique Marseille 17/04/12 UCL Bayern München 2 - 1 Real Madrid 19/05/12 UCL Bayern München 1 - 1P Chelsea In the same time Valencia lost only once with more one goal their away games in their last 2 Champions league's campaigns: 14/09/10 UCL Bursaspor 0 - 4 Valencia 20/10/10 UCL Rangers 1 - 1 Valencia 07/12/10 UCL Manchester United 1 - 1 Valencia 09/03/11 UCL Schalke 04 3 - 1 Valencia 13/09/11 UCL Genk 0 - 0 Valencia 19/10/11 UCL Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 1 Valencia 06/12/11 UCL Chelsea 3 - 0 Valencia

Your bet might turn to be a good one, but your reasoning is very naive. You say Bayern Munich won only twice with more than a goal difference "last year"?! Do you realize that your sample consists of two (2!) games, one of which a semi-final against Real Madrid (where the coefficient for -1.5 handicap for Bayern was probably 3.50), and the other one was a Champions League final?!! No offense, but your example is ridiculous. And about Valencia - I seriously don't think that Valencia's results away against Bursaspor, Rangers or Genk have absolutely anything to do with their performance at Allianz Arena in Munich. It's like using Wigan's away victory to Southhampton to judge their expected performance at Old Trafford.

[Mustafa]

Re: Champions League > September 19th Celtic - Benfica I don't think that Benfica are so much better than Celtic to be considered favorites at Celtic Park, especially since Celtic has an impressive record against Portuguese sides, including Benfica who they beat twice at home and on overall recorded 9 wins and 1 draw from 10 home games against Portuguese sides. I don't think that Celtic's domestic performance and especially their last away defeat to St.Johnston is really relevant. They don't have any real competition in SPL, so their main focus is good performance in the Champions League and I expect them to give a good performance in front of their home fans. Celtic @ 3.50 (2 units) Bet365

[Mr_Roi]

Re: Champions League > September 19th My Pick: Game: Shakhtar-Nordsjaelland Pick: 1 (-1,75) Quote: 1,72 Stake: 5/10 Bookie: Ladbrokes

[Riedle13]

Re: Champions League > September 19th

this analysis doesnt fill me with much confidence m8. To go againzt Utd at home. They have been conceeding alot against fulham and southampton, but wigan went there and got a good whipping at the weekend. Galatass will need to be at their best tonight to stand a chance of getting a point. Dont waste your money..

Fair enough, but with all due respect to Wigan, Galatasaray are in a different class and should surprise people in this competition. My big concern is this may have come too soon and I'd prefer them to play Utd away later in the group. But a double chance bet on them covers 2 of the possible 3 outcomes, and for me is worth a small bet against a team that were frequently outclassed in Europe last season by supposedly weaker opposition.

[Jase82]

My Pick: Game: Shakhtar-Nordsjaelland Pick: 1 (-1,75) Quote: 1,72 Stake: 5/10 Bookie: Ladbrokes

Could we please see some reasoning with your selection :)

[kevshat]

Re: Champions League > September 19th 4pts Man Utd vs Galatasaray - Both teams to score Evs Bet365 I think there will be goals in this match. The only clean sheets Man Utd kept in the tournament last year were against Otelul Galati who lost every match they played. United have got no better defensively since then but they have strengthened their attacking options enough to suggest they will get a goal. Galatasaray have a few players capable of scoring goals so the even money on both teams to score could look a little big. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/man-utd-vs-galatasaray-betting-both-teams-look-better-going-forward-than-defending-which-should-see-both-score

[Jug]

Re: Champions League > September 19th

Manchester United- Galatasaray ----------------Umut(7.5/10)--------------Elmander(7.5/10) "(Burak 7.5/10)" -------- Amrabat(7/10)----------Melo(7.5/10)----------Selcuk(8.5/10)--------------Hamit(7/10) Hakan Balta(6.5/10)---------Cris(?)-----------Semih Kaya(8/10)-----------Eboue(8/10) --------------------------------Muslera(8.5/10)--------------------------------------

I'm sorry but Hakan Balta a 6.5? Hakan Balta is more of a 3, the guy is not consistent and Antonio is going to have a field day around him. Burak is another terrible player who hasn't started a game for GS in months, his first touch is woeful and his only goal this season was from a free kick against a terrible terrible TERRIBLE goalkeeper.

[McNasara]

Re: Champions League > September 19th Quite useful posts here and I really have nothing to add at this level. I'll try with low stake and high odds, as always in this competition. Celtic have a great advantage when play at home and on the other side guests come without a captain Luisao and another reg defender Pereira. Tradition is also on the Scottish side. Shakhtar is a much better and more experienced than the Danish team. Home team have no absences, while guests are weaker than last year. It's the shortest of me, thanks to all other members for relevant information. Shakhtar (-2) EH @2.65 Unibet Celtic (DNB) @2.62 Ladbrokes

[Mr.Europe]

Re: Champions League > September 19th Obviously every man and their dog are backing Shakhtar tonight. 1.22 HW??? Insane. I don't know how anyone can take these idiotic odds. Just gonna livebet tonight as nothing particularly attractive stands out.

[kevshat]

Re: Champions League > September 19th 4pts Celtic vs Benfica - Over 2.5 goals 23/20 BetVictor I think there will be goals in this match and quite a few of them too. Celtic are conceding goals to the likes of St Johnstone and Ross County so you have to expect seasoned international footballers to find the net in this match but without their captain Luisao and Maxi Pereira, Benfica’s defence looks a little on the light side too so there’s no reason why Celtic can’t trouble the scorers. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/celtic-vs-benfica-betting-goals-likely-to-be-a-feature-of-the-game-at-celtic-park

[colnroy]

Re: Champions League > September 19th Two games Chelsea- Juventus Both to score MU- Gala Both to score.

[Jase82]

Two games Chelsea- Juventus Both to score MU- Gala Both to score.

Can we see some reasoning please :)... Odds and bookmaker too....

[ThusPrider]

Re: Champions League > September 19th I can't seem to find the proposition bets for this round of Champions League fixtures on Pinnacle. They usually have them but have they moved it somewhere else or have they just not put it out for this set of fixtures? edit: I swear its usually there, is it just me? Can anyone else see it? Yes I'm venturing deep into the lesser markets I usually stay away from (I'd even call them mug markets!) But I still demand the very best odds! Curses

[The Undertaker]

Re: Champions League > September 19th

I'm sorry but Hakan Balta a 6.5? Hakan Balta is more of a 3' date=' the guy is not consistent and Antonio is going to have a field day around him. Burak is another terrible player who hasn't started a game for GS in months, his first touch is woeful and his only goal this season was from a free kick against a terrible terrible TERRIBLE goalkeeper.[/quote'] okay man. ill take galatasary away win. cheers m8 for the tip.. didnt realise they were so good...

[Onefortheroad]

Re: Champions League > September 19th I'm all in for Benfica tonight against Celtic. i personalty just don't think Celtic are firing on all grounds at the moment and the fact that it's a big step up to a big comp, I can see Benfica out class them. Benfica Win!

[danhardy]

Re: Champions League > September 19th

okay man. ill take galatasary away win. cheers m8 for the tip.. didnt realise they were so good...

was this a sarcastic post? not very smart I'd say I like counter arguments, but not sure what to make of your post

[laneystain]

Re: Champions League > September 19th Lille vs BATE Borisov Under 2.5 Goals - 8/11 (sportingbet) Lille have been pretty woeful so far this term and have only kept 1 clean sheet so far, whereas BATE are an in-form side. I just feel the odds on the Lille win may be a bit too short and the Belarusian's may have enough to frustrate them for most of tonight's game. They've only scored in 2 of the last 6 CL games, but managed 2 clean sheets in the qualifying rounds for the groups. Don't forget they also managed to hold AC Milan last season at the San Siro!

[sambo1983]

Re: Champions League > September 19th

Lille vs BATE Borisov Under 2.5 Goals - 8/11 (sportingbet) Lille have been pretty woeful so far this term and have only kept 1 clean sheet so far, whereas BATE are an in-form side. I just feel the odds on the Lille win may be a bit too short and the Belarusian's may have enough to frustrate them for most of tonight's game. They've only scored in 2 of the last 6 CL games, but managed 2 clean sheets in the qualifying rounds for the groups. Don't forget they also managed to hold AC Milan last season at the San Siro!

Well you've lost this one at HT, but good shout pointing out how bad Lille are. BATE could be a surprise package this year by the looks of this first half. The French are stinking the place out here.

[hebert10]

Re: Champions League > September 19th

Shakhtar Donetsk v Nordsjaelland 4pts Mkhitaryan anytime scorer @ 5 StanJames Watched this lad play a few times and he looks as if he is real quality. He'll love going to the big stage in the form hes in, he's already scored 12 goals in 9 games from midfield this season. At this price against this opposition i feel its great value and expect him to cause the Nordsjaelland defense a few problems.

Looked by far the biggest threat on the pitch in that first half and got us some money with 45 minutes left! :cigar 2012 Football Record: 7-8 (+14.30)

[danhardy]

Re: Champions League > September 19th sambo1983, laneystain...you should wonder why nobody even had a review on the game lille-BB game Lille had 1 win, 3 draws and a loss in the last 5 games in the domestic league,this must say something BB were the surprise team last year, this year the surprise team must come from Denmark or Romania CFR Cluj is half way there and I would not lay the Dane side yet, they play a difficult game away to Shaktar and they keep a good game

[Mustafa]

Re: Champions League > September 19th

Chelsea - Juventus Chelsea are not playing well at the moment, while Juventus are in a really good form. However, due to the following facts I won't back Juventus in this one:

• Chelsea have good home record against Italian sides (5 wins, 1 draw and 2 loses);
• Juventus have a bad away record against English sides and haven't won in their last 11 away games against English sides (8 loses and 3 draws)

Both sides have good front line, while their respective defences are not that great, with Chelsea conceding 6 goals in their last 5 competitive fixtures and Juventus conceding 4 goals in 4 competitive games so far. So, I can see each side scoring at least 1 goal, and my most likely prediction is either 1-1 draw of a narrow 2-1 Chelsea win. Both to Score @ 1.83 (2 units) Bet365 __________________________________________ Shakhtar - Nordsjaelland Shakhtar are playing really well at the moment and it is safe to say that they do not have any competition in the domestic league, plus they have good experience in the Champions League. However, the fact that Nordsjealland is a newcomer to this competition I would not place any bets on the Win-Draw-Win markets, since the Danish side might be one of the surprise teams this year. However, I would like to focus on cards market since the referee for this game is Polish Pawel Gil, who has shown at least 6 cards in 6 out of the last 7 games he was in charge of, and in 5 out of these 7 games he also shown a red card. Over 4.5 Cards @ 2.10 (2 units) Bet365

Both bets won :beer

[RedDevil92]

Re: Champions League > September 18th

Manchester United-Galatasaray AH-1.5 @1.90 5/10 pinnacle (fair line AH-1.75 @1.80) United won deserved 4-0 against Wigan, resting players like Valencia, Cleverley, Evra, Kagawa and van Persie. Wigan had no chance. They also missed a penalty and van Persie had a huge miss 2m in front of the empty goal. Rooney could be on the bench as well for this match. Galatasaray concede a lot of goals so far. Turkish sides don't do well in European competitions. Odds should drop here. GL

1:0 early goal -5 Nani that idi*t missed a penalty, 3rd penalty in a row that United missed, Hernandez had 3 big missings

[scotty657]

Re: Champions League > September 19th Good stuff Mustafa. Didn't have a bet myself. Watched and enjoyed the Bayern-Valencia game.

[sambo1983]

Re: Champions League > September 19th Good work Mustafa...PS is that website on your profile one that you run / own??? Disastorous night for me, I went for Celtic to win and for both teams to score....the 0-0 really stuffed me up...luckily I was slightly redeemed by Shakhtar winning with a -1 handicap. Oh well.

[quote]

Re: Champions League > September 19th

Braga - CFR Cluj You could call this sister clubs, Braga's actual goalkeeper did play for CFR for a full season and CFR's actual goalkeeper is signed from Braga :lol In total 4 of CFR's players are ex Braga players. CFR has 7 portuguese players in their squad but I think only 3 or 4 will play tonight. I know they didn't start to well in the domestic league, but CL is a different story and as I said in a post on the first page they had 4 games against the champions of Czech Replublic and against the champions of Switzerland Basel to qualify and they won all 4. Usually they have a nice to watch style of play and they like attacking, they're not the team to park the bus, I hope they wont start to do that today. Even if they hope to get a draw, I don't think they'll be able to get it just by defending and I can see them scoring. There's not much else I can say as godmato did a pretty good job in the above post just that I don't agree that CFR will use "bunker defence", but we'll see... my picks: BTTS @ 2.1 draw @ 4.3(low stakes) both with bet365 I edited the post to add a 3rd bet, this is more a gut bet because I can't offer much reasoning for it, but just for the record. CFR Cluj games in CL [TABLE=class: wikitable] [TR] [TH]Club[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left]Roma[/TD] [TD]1 – 3[/TD] [TD]2 – 1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]0 – 0[/TD] [TD]1 – 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left]Bordeaux[/TD] [TD]1 – 2[/TD] [TD]0 – 1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left]Basel[/TD] [TD]2 – 1[/TD] [TD]0 – 1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left]Roma[/TD] [TD]1 – 1[/TD] [TD]1 – 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left]Bayern Munich[/TD] [TD]0 – 4[/TD] [TD]2 – 3[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] This games are from 2008-2009 and 2010-2011 Both times they won the first game, and my gut is telling me they have a big chance to do the same today. CFR Cluj to win @ 7.5 with bet365 but there are other bookies offering 8+

Great bet. :clap