Kolo Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair What are you trying to lead towards? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolo Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair Also you need factor the vig in to your calculations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Great, so all horses that start at odds of evens win 50% of the time. Now there's a horse called "Iveabigone" racing tomorrow, the odds on offer are.... 2.00 does that mean THAT horse in THAT race has a 50% chance of winning ? Don't be a nob!! ;) I've read your posts and u kno that's not what I'm saying!! Most of what u say I agree with :) Not every 2.0 shot has a 50% chance of winning - of course not. That's where judgement and a decent assessment of a horses odds come into play. However, over the long term, almost exactly 50% of horses that start at a BSP of 2.0 will win and 50% will lose. That's why punters with no judgement will lose because of commission.... If I back every horse that has a BSP of 2.0 at 3.0, then long term, if luck is equal, then I will win. If I back every horse that has a BSP of 2.0 at 1.5, I will lose - again given that luck levels out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Nice sample size Ha ha! Why didn't I say that?!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair That the number you bet at vs the no vig closing line is much more efficient for predicting future success than win/loss record is Isn't it all about the punter having the ability to predict the winning horse/game better than the odds at which he/she are prepared to bet at. Or am I missing something. You have a choice to bet or not ,the bookie doesn't, he has to price up a race/game to stay in business and compete with other books, It matters not if the market is efficient as you should only be concentrating on the part of the market you think you can beat. Therefore you cannot blame the market for your inability to beat it, whether it is efficient or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair Nobody got any thoughts on my post? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair I notice I've made an error in the commission effect on the odds but it doesn't really affect the question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair Don't be a nob!! ;) I've read your posts and u kno that's not what I'm saying!! Most of what u say I agree with :) Not every 2.0 shot has a 50% chance of winning - of course not. That's where judgement and a decent assessment of a horses odds come into play. However, over the long term, almost exactly 50% of horses that start at a BSP of 2.0 will win and 50% will lose. That's why punters with no judgement will lose because of commission.... If I back every horse that has a BSP of 2.0 at 3.0, then long term, if luck is equal, then I will win. If I back every horse that has a BSP of 2.0 at 1.5, I will lose - again given that luck levels out. Exactly, ( what machine said also ) You have to choose those betting opportunities where you perceive positive value. How do you know you are right ? By examining your long term record which must result in profit, that way, and ONLY that way, can you determine that positive value in fact existed on the bets made so far. And even then it only tells you that you find positive value on average, it says absolutely nothing about each individual bet. Nor can you determine value on each individual bet, you can only make a guess, an assumption. The odds on an individual bet on whatever market does not reflect the true odds, at best you can say they are an approximation. If you examine small bands of odds like between 2.00 and 2.50 you'll find the average holds, therefore the odds offered will be more likely than not to be close to true odds, so in most cases if positive value exists it will not be big enough to overcome the overround or commission, you need to find the exceptions where the value is sufficient. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair That is very true. Would you say the statements remain the same if you are deriving odds for a sub market from another market? As in my example above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Exactly, ( what machine said also ) You have to choose those betting opportunities where you perceive positive value. How do you know you are right ? By examining your long term record which must result in profit, that way, and ONLY that way, can you determine that positive value in fact existed on the bets made so far. And even then it only tells you that you find positive value on average, it says absolutely nothing about each individual bet. Nor can you determine value on each individual bet, you can only make a guess, an assumption. The odds on an individual bet on whatever market does not reflect the true odds, at best you can say they are an approximation. If you examine small bands of odds like between 2.00 and 2.50 you'll find the average holds, therefore the odds offered will be more likely than not to be close to true odds, so in most cases if positive value exists it will not be big enough to overcome the overround or commission, you need to find the exceptions where the value is sufficient. Yep! I think we are in complete agreement. Apologies if that hasn't come across somehow... All I'm reasoning is that BSP is the best indicator we have... Example tho - I could back 4 horses at 3.0. They all win and I'm showing a healthy profit. Therefore, you're contesting that I'm getting value? Average BSP on these same 4 turns out to be 4.0. Would u contest I still got value now? I don't kno the answer!? Obviously I have some degree of value because I am in profit and winning!! Whether I got optimum value is open to debate I guess given the BSPs.... Sample size obv too small I kno! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sand87 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair You can quite easily be in profit by taking poor value bets And equally you can go broke taking good value bets. Over the short term, or over a small sample, both are likely. But over a large enough sample that relates to the average odds your betting to you can use formula to calculate your confidence that you are getting value i.e that it isn't down to luck If you backed a 1.01 shot at 1000 you got exceptional value. It may lose though :( This is why I like to remember Warren Buffets quote about not investing if you aren't prepared to see the investment drop by 50% at some point. I.E don't over stake. Excluding laying an impossible outcome, how many people would overstake and rely on the assumption the market would correct and they could dump some of that stake? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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