Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August

BillyHills · August 17, 2012

3.30 Ripon: William Hill Great St.Wilfrid Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (6f) The Great St Wilfrid is always very competitive and this years renewal looks top class with the top six in the weights all rated 100 or more and top weight Our Jonathan is not out of it and he can be forgiven his last two below par efforts. He has a high draw, which may be a slight problem. Of the low numbers Bertiewhittle, Alben Star and Louis The Pious look sure to be thereabouts but despite the poor record of the 3yoâ€™s in this race I cant get away from the chances of Es Que Love. He ran well for a long way last time and will blast down the centre of the track and looks fair value at the prices. Selections: 1pt EW Es Que Love 14/1 >Bet365 1pt EW Our Jonathan 12/1 >BetVictor Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/ripon-betting-es-que-love-can-end-poor-run-for-3yo-s-in-great-st-wilfrid-sprint-at-ripon

Aidymac · August 17, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August *Prodigality - Ripon 2:20* Looks a hugely progressive horse. Landed a gamble easily last time out and an 8 pound rise should not stop another big run. Graham Lee is on fire too so a good man on board again. Will love the trip and ground, is in flying form and Ron Harris horse's are running well. He has never had a winner at Ripon, but this should be a good chance for win number 1. 0.5 Points e/w @ 6/1 Boylesports BOG*

beaker1 · August 17, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 3:30 Ripon â€“ William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes At first glance the Great St Wilfrid may look a tough race to get to the bottom off but by following a few simple trends it can usually be narrowed down to a much more manageable shortlist. The first thing to consider is the draw as 10 of the last 11 winners came from a double figure draw suggesting that the likes of Alben Star, Barnet Fair and Bertiewhittle have plenty to prove. It is also important to choose a horse that races up with the pace as 10 of the last 11 winners either made all or raced prominently. So it is vital that any selection for this yearâ€™s race isnâ€™t a hold-up performer. As 10 of the last 132 winners had already won at least once earlier in the season it would seem sensible to be wary of those without a win under their belts this term. Those from towards the head of the betting which fall into this bracket are Bertiewhittle, Louise The Pious and Captain Ramius. As 3 of the last 6 winners had previously run in the Stewardsâ€™ Cup it would seem sensible to look at the Goodwood form. For the record, the placed runners from the Stewardsâ€™ Cup were as follows â€“ Alben Star (5th), Es Que Love (7th), Lexiâ€™ Hero (13th), Grissom (14th), Seal Rock (19th) and Elusive Price (23rd). As Dandy Nicholls has won 2 of the last 7 renewals of the Great St Wilfrid, Tax Free must warrant particular attention although in all fairness he doesnâ€™t look to be the horse he once was. No other trainer has an especially strong record although Henry Candy (Seal Rock) and David Oâ€™Meara (Pepper Lane) have both won this race in recent seasons. Whilst it is not a trend to focus on primarily it is worth noting that 5 of the last 9 winners were officially rated between 96 & 100 and last yearâ€™s winner was only 1lb lower than that bracket on 95. It is certainly interesting reading and does leave a question mark hanging over those at the top and bottom of the weights. Finally, it should pay to oppose the favourite as there have only been 2 winning favourites in the last 12 years. In open contests such as this the runners usually flip-flop in the lead up to the race but at the time of writing Alben Star heads Barnet Fair by a point. Shortlist Colonel Mak Singeur Seal Rock Johannes Conclusion As long as the ground at Ripon remains good, Colonel Mak could prove some value at around the 16-1 mark. David Baronâ€™s gelding has ticks in all of the right boxes, as long as they adopt his usual prominent style of racing. Form-wise, he has looked as good as ever this season winning twice and running a solid race when giving plenty of weight away at York last time. Robin Bastiman will forever be associated with Borderlescott but he has another good horse in his charge in the shape of Singeur. He wasnâ€™t at his best on soft ground for his belated reappearance at Pontefract but bounced back with a good performance when winning here 11 days ago. It is interesting that he is yet to win over further than the minimum trip as he has looked the sort that would appreciate the extra furlong. He is only up 4lb for his recent victory so perhaps tomorrow is the day to put the record straight. Seal Rock looked a very bright prospect after winning his first 3 starts but he didnâ€™t progress quite as well as expected. Having said that, he wouldnâ€™t be a bad horse to own as he nearly always gives you a run for your money. He is pretty versatile ground wise and would appear to be at his best over tomorrowâ€™s trip so if her gets the splits when needed he could be one to go well at a big-price of 25-1. Johannes put up a good performance when winning at Glorious Goodwood after dropping back down to a winnable mark. He is back up to 96 tomorrow so will find this tougher but there is no doubting this 9yos resolution and if he can pick up where he left off at Goodwood he could give punters a run for the money.

Stevet1859 · August 17, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 3:05 Newbury: Alanza 1pt win 10/1 Bet Victor Having supported Alanza in the Falmouth, it seems reasonable to give her another chance here, especially with the drop back in trip and the better going likely to be in her favour. Its interesting that John Oxx brings Alanza over again, and based on his past record this side of the Irish Sea any runner deserves a lot of respect. 3:20 Newmarket: Jack Dexter 1pt win 10/1 Boylesports The step back up to six furlongs should suit Jack Dexter. He ran a very solid race last time at Ascot in what looked a good heat and Jack Dexter was noted as staying on there. Like many of these he is lightly raced (never saw the track at two) and there could be scope for some improvement.

Edberg · August 17, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 3.00 Chester LOCAL HERO 4pts win @ 7/1 bog (Bet365) I really think this price is totally wrong (it was no more than 4/1 in my mind). Local Hero is a talented horse who is still very lightly raced on the flat and has been pretty unlucky not to add his second flat win to his palmares earlier this season (in May) when he finished 2nd of 15, just 3/4L behind Ithoughtitwasover at Newmarket (1m4f, good to soft, class 2 handicap, racing off a mark of 84) and 2nd of 4, 1.5L behind Grumeti at Ascot (1m4f, soft, class 3 handicap, off 84) within 6 days. Ithoughtitwasover won pretty easily also his next start (a Listed handicap off a 3lb higher mark) and has been subsequently raised 8lb in the rating since his win in that race at Newmarket. Grumeti went really close (beaten a short head) on his next/last start off a 6lb higher mark and is now rated 10lb higher than when beating Local Hero at Ascot. In both races Local Hero wasn't too lucky as at Newmarket he had a wall of horses in front of him in a key moment of the race and took a while before able to change gear and still came very close to win in the end beating a lot of very good horses like Caucus, who ran at Royal Ascot in the Gold Cup on his last start, and Franciscan, who had won his previous start and won also his next one, just to name a couple. While the race where he couldn't reach Grumeti even if able to produce another strong finish was absolutely not run for his liking as with just 4 runners there was no pace at all in the first part of the race (he loves to come off a strong pace). On his following start (2 months ago) he finished 4th of 12 at York (good to soft) racing off his new mark of 89. More than his new mark the 2f more proved too much for the 5yo gelding. His next/last effort on the flat came one month ago at Newmarket where he was dropped back in trip over his favourite 1m4f but this time he struggled to cope with the very heavy ground and finished 7th of 10. Back over hurdles, where Local Hero had already collected nice 3 wins (among them a Grade 2 at Cheltenham) and a number of good efforts in defeat even in Grade 1s like the Triumph Hurdle and the 4yo Juvenile Hurdle at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festival in 2011 or the very good second in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr 4 months ago) the Steve Gollings-trained 5yo won in impressive style the main event of the Market Rasen season that is the Summer Hurdle Handicap (a Listed) where he won very cosily coming off a strong pace and sparing more than something imho (raced off a mark of 140 and is now rated 145). That happened exactly 4 weeks ago and now Local Hero can prove his top form back on the flat racing in this race off a mark of 87 which seems more than within his compass especially in a race where he shouldn't get any problem to get a strong pace to aim at and having no problems at all even if there would be more rain and the ground would turn a bit softer than the predicted good. Of course the short final straight and the special track of Chester is an unknown but hopefully he can cope with that. His main rivals should be Address Unknown and Scatter Dice. The former Dermont Weld-trained gelding has come back to form with two strong efforts on his last two starts finishing 2nd behind Scatter Dice (beaten a neck) at Ascot over 1m4f on firm ground twenty days ago (racing off 90) and winning his last race again at Ascot (part of the Shergar Cup) 6 days ago when he beat Woolfall Treasure by 1/2L in a handicap over 2m on good to firm ground, racing off 94. The Ian Williams-trained horses have been running particularly well of late and the same Address Unknown proved it but now upped 5lb more (to 99) he doesn't seem particularly well handicapped even if he was rated up to 108 in Ireland 2 years ago, especially if there would be a bit rain (more than possible) as he badly needs a very sound surface to perform at his best. Moreover in his only visit at Chester (9th of May 2012) he ran very bad (12th of 16) off a 2lb lower mark (it was on soft ground and it was surely a bit tougher than this but still he didn't run well at all). After that flop at Chester he ran another bad race at York (1m6f, good to soft) finishing 8th of 12 in a race where Local Hero was 4th and my selection re-opposes him on 7lb better terms today (that are even 14lb if taking into account the 7lb claims of the apprentice jockey who rode Address Unknown that day at York) and beat him that day by more than 8.5L. Scatter Dice is a very little but very tough and game filly who ran a bad race just once in her career on her second last outing at Goodwood 16 days ago but otherwise she has never been out of the top 3 collecting 4 wins, 3 seconds and 2 thirds in 10 career starts. She won her last race beating Address Unknown by a neck at Ascot 20 days ago off a 6lb lower mark and with the very valuable 5lb claim thanks to the presence of Darren Egan on her saddle that day (Joe Fanning on board today). The 3yo trained by Mark Johnston ran again very well at Ascot during the Shergar Cup meeting 6 days ago when 3rd of 10 in a class 3 handicap for 3yos, race won by the promising and very well handicapped Sun Central. She will surely run well also here (again off 93) and will assure a good tempo but should come short once again even if facing older horses she gets a very valuable 10lb allowance something that had surely helped her to save that neck against Address Unknown at Ascot 20 days ago. She re-opposes Address Unknown on 3lb better terms today. Mica Mika, Scrapper Smith and Kiama Bay seem either out of form or not so well handicapped at the moment while Communicator who has been running pretty well in defeat of late (3-4-4-3) could snatch a slice of the prize money but I can't really see the Andrew Balding-trained 4yo winning this. Chance for a minor place also for the two horses trained by Peter Charalambous who are both at the bottom of the weight (Colinca's Lad 2lb out of the handicap) and have been in very good form this season. All in all a very strong chance at a very good price for an in-form, talented and still unexposed 1m4f specialist who represents an in-form trainer in Steve Gollings who had just one runner in the last 10 days (earlier this week) that won very easily (Jamarjo in a class 4 handicap over 2m at Kempton). Jack Mitchell has had his problems with cocaine and was banned for 6 months (October 2011-April 2012) and again the 22yo jockey didn't ride for almost 2 months of late but hopefully he's back with a good form and spirit for this race as he's surely got a good talent to ride and has been very well in this kind of races in the past. Mitchell still shows a fantastic level stake profit of +59.01 when riding in 3yo+ handicaps (99 wins from 786 rides, 13% strike rate, during the last 5 seasons) which becomes a more than impressive +144.15 when riding over 9f-10f-11f-12f (55 wins from 366 rides, 15% strike rate, always considering the last 5 seasons).

Edberg · August 17, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 3.35 Chester STIRRING BALLAD 4pts win @ 5/2 bog (Paddy Power and Bet365) Fast improving 3yo filly trained by Andrew Balding for George Strawbridge. Stirring Ballad won her last three starts improving race after race. Her latest success (class 2 handicap over 7f at Goodwood 15 days ago) was really impressive. Connections revealed she had had some problems last year and started her career just at the end of May this year but finding the right tactic (waiting behind the horses and asked to perform late) she is flourishing now. She has got an impressive turn of foot and from the plum draw in stall nr.1 she should get the run of the race here. She has been upped 7lb for her last win when she beat a few of today's rival that of course re-opposes her on better terms today but she seems still on the upward curve and should take all the beating in very rich handicap for 3yo (Â£32,345 to the winner) with the half furlong more surely on her favour both on pedigree (she is a half sister to Balisada who won the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot few years ago) and on her race style. The stable is in very good form at the moment (6 winners in the last 7 days) and Franny Norton is the best possible booking both because the experienced jockey rode her last time out and because he is a master of this unique track (rode 25 winners in the last 5 seasons here at Chester and shows a level stake profit of +51 in the last 3 years at this track).

Bathtime For Rupert · August 18, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 3.40 Newbury - 2pts win Treadwell @ 14/1 (PP) Posted this before his Glorious Goodwood run:

5.30 Goodwood - 2pts e/w Treadwell @ 12/1 (Bet365) A rare each-way bet given there's a well-treated horse in the field, but I'm confident of a big run from Jamie Osborne's charge, who showed much more at Haydock last time and should relish the type of race on offer here. This one won the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot in 2010 off 9lbs higher and relishes a strongly run 7f. That should be guaranteed here in a big field like this and it seems like the trainer has managed to get some spark back into him after a break of four months before he returned in late May. He travelled well that day and stayed on to be 3rd late in the day before being nabbed for that position close home, but wasn't given too much of a hard time by Fergus Sweeney. He only administered one smack with the whip so it was a pretty generous ride and they didn't go lightning fast up front. With that encouraging run under his belt he comes here into a big field, on ground that suits, and is well-handicapped. If he improves again for that Haydock run then he has a huge chance here off a mark of 89 and should be there or thereabouts. Gone each-way just in case the favourite is too well-in to cope with. Confident of a frame position, though.

Expected better from him on this occasion but things didn't really go his way. He didn't really get much of a clear passage for a lot of the contest so couldn't really be asked for maximum effort until quite late on. It would have been nice to see him finish better then he did but he did at least keep going into midfield and although he's shown form at Epsom, his two turf wins have come at Sandown and Ascot - both tracks with stiffer finishes. He shaped as if a more testing 7f would suit and has been dropped a further 2lbs in the weights. That was his first run for five weeks too so he might have just lacked a little bit of spark and I just expect better today. The ground will suit so long as we don't get rain and hopefully he'll got a solid pace to run off. He definitely has the ability and remains well-handicapped on old form. Hopefully he'll put it all together here. 4.30 Newmarket - 2pts win Kiz Kulesi @ 17/2 (VC) Posted this before his run last time out:

3.40 Sandown - 3pts win Kiz Kulesi @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) This Godolphin runner is very interesting to me now on his second start of the season and with much quicker ground on offer today than when he returned to the fold at Haydock last time. That would have been against him I think, being a Street Cry colt and he acted well at Newmarket on debut on better ground when running out a surprise winner. There was no fluke about it, though, as he travelled best of all and kept on well when hitting the front despite screaming of inexperience. He didn't really know what he was meant to be doing but effectively did the job and stuck his neck out all the way to the line. On that evidence, the step up to 1m2f will be no problem - especially on ground such as this - and with the run under his belt last time out, should be fit for this. I always think it's worth taking on Godolphin horses after a break so it wasn't a huge surprise he was beating - especially considering the conditions - and he should be spot on today and could be nicely treated if coming on as expected for his debut.

He looked a big threat with about 1 1/2f to race up the inside as he travelled and battled on well initially before fading and wandering under pressure. I thought he'd get the trip but on this evidence he just looked like a non-stayer and that the return to a mile would suit. A sound surface seems crucial too which he'll get here so long as there isn't a load of rain. That race at Sandown has worked out nicely since and although he appears the stable second-string on jockey bookings I'll take a chance with James Doyle on board who is a top rider. 4.55 Newbury - 2pts win Valiant Girl @ 17/2 (VC) Posted this before her recent run at Goodwood:

4.55 Goodwood - 3pts win Valiant Girl @ 7/1 (Bet365) Roger Charlton's filly is very interesting to me in this 1m1f handicap having got off the mark narrowly last time out over c&d. Course form is a boost here and she looks to have plenty of improvement still in her having only had two runs to date. These runs have been separated by an 8-month break and I think she can be a bit better than a rating of 85. Her dam was rated 98 so she clearly has a fair bit of ability in her pedigree and this should be her best run so far. She was a clear eyecatcher on debut behind the very talented Encke (will now be rated comfortably in the 100s). She was slowly away, green and nudged along in rear before having nowhere to go once she picked up the bit. Steve Drowne had to sit and suffer before she got a bit of room and she stayed on quite takingly before being short of daylight once more late on. The race was decent and she definitely was one of the main few to take out of it. She did well to win here last time given she'd been off the track for so long and the steady pace wouldn't have been ideal, either. She quickened up well, however, with an unraced rival to battle all the way to the line and she nicked it by a head. The way the front two accelerated 4 1/2l clear late on off a modest pace suggests both are pretty useful and she should have come on again for the run. The yard's horses are going well and have a 20% strike rate here. They can hopefully celebrate another winner here.

I think she did too much on this occasion as they went quick up front and she was up there rather than held-up as I had anticipated. She came to challenge 2f out but soon the leaders were swamped by the closers and she faded into a 7l 10th. That was a 0-95 race as well and she drops down into a 0-85 contest today. She's been dropped 2lbs and is up by an extra furlong in trip. Hopefully she can settle today and won't go too quickly up front. She should get the trip on pedigree but it's obviously a question mark. I liked the way she won two starts back and the fact she traded shorter in the run last time out shows she was better than the final result. Hopefully she'll get a more restrained ride from Top Queally and can get back into the winners enclosure. 5.05 Newmarket - 3pts win Gabrial The Hero @ 6/1 (Bet365) I'm not particularly keen on some of the runners in this but I do like David Simcock's charge for a yard in cracking form (24% strike rate in August). This colt has only had six runs on the track so far in his career and has only put in one poor performance - and that came last time out at Chester. Everything went wrong for him, however, and that can safely be put to one side in my eyes. Prior to that he's mainly been ridden prominently and since he's been upped to 1m4f he's been a good 3rd to the well-handicapped Sir Graham Wade, and then stormed to a 7l success at Haydock to get off the mark. He got outstayed late on over 1m6f on softish ground back there next time out behind a horse who has twice gone well since. At Chester he was very slowly into stride and then had to be restrained by Cathy Gannon. It's clear he wanted to stride forward as he took a fierce hold for much of the contest and then was hampered on the home turn whilst the leaders slipped the field. He lost momentum before staying on to take a well-held 4th in the end. Not much more could have gone against him, though, and the race has worked out well. The winner has been competing in listed events, the 2nd has won twice since and the 3rd has won and been a narrow second subsequently. The return to a more galloping track will help and fingers crossed he can get out of the stalls better and get a handy sit. There are a couple of other front-runners in the field so I wouldn't mind George Baker being sensible and just getting a decent position without restraining him too much. The surface is a problem for a few it seems and a couple of others look held by the handicapper. I'm confident he can bounce back here and add to the string of winners for the yard.

Edberg · August 18, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 2.30 Newbury MASKED MARVEL 3tps win @ 5/1 bog (Boylesports) High quality 4yo colt by Montjeu trained by John Gosden who had a fantastic 3yo season winning a Listed over 1m3f at Goodwood in May, a Group 3 over 1m5f at Newmarket in July and the St. Leger (Group 1) at Doncaster (1m7f) when he bolted up (finally finding his favourite good to firm ground) with Brown Panther second 3L behind him. In his last 5 races he took part at 4 top Group 1s and once he ran in a Group 2 (2012 reappearance at Newmarket in May) so this is a big step back in class for him. Brown Panther reversed that St. Leger form finishing 10L and 2 places ahead of Masked Marvel last time out in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. The 4yo colt trained by Tom Dascombe had bolted up in his previous race (second 2012 outing) in a Listed at Pontefract on soft ground and is at the top of his game and deserves to share the favouritisms with another fast improver like Mount Athos who is a 5yo trained by Luca Cumani (stable in sparkling form with 3 nice winners yesterday at Newmarket) who won both his starts this season in impressive style (two high quality handicaps at Newmarket and York, both over 1m6f, racing off 103 and 108). Mount Athos's main target is the Melbourne Cup but connections realized that his latest win, which was a Listed Handicap, and his actual mark of 116 couldn't be enough to get into that race so they are trying to get a Group 3 win and then start the preparation for the big Australian race. I was impressed by the improvements showed by Mount Athos this season and I would be a big supporter of his chances in a race like the Melbourne Cup which seems to me tailor made for this Montjeu gelding but at current prices I can't miss to oppose him today with Masked Marvel. John Gosden is having his best ever season and in a couple of interviews he underlined how better Masked Marvel is this season. I know trainers' words are often misleading but if there is a man I'd trust in this world it surely is Mr Gosden. If the horse is effectively even better than last year he has to show it today. As written above this is a drop in class for him and on his St Leger form he should be better than Brown Panther. He will love the step back up in trip as his best ever performances, and last two wins, came both over 1m5f and 1m7f and 1m4f should be a bit too short for his liking nowadays. He met top of the ground just once since his St Leger triumph and that was at Epsom in June for the Coronation Cup when 3rd in a race won by St Nicholas Abbey. He didn't handle the track (ran bad also in the 2011 Derby when 8th of 13) and surely proved that 1m4f at that level was not his best trip. Today he finds 1m5f61y which has to be close to his optimum trip, good to firm ground (very important plus), and it's just a Group 3. No doubt on 2012 form Brown Panther and Mount Athos deserve to be the market leaders but Masked Marvel should be the classy one of the trio and if John Gosden, wasn't wrong when he said he's absolutely improved during the winter, this is his first real chance to prove it.

Edberg · August 18, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 3.20 Newmarket SALOOMY 4pts win @ 7/1 bog (Bluesq) Very lightly raced 3yo colt trained by David Simcock. Ran only once as a 2yo but has done nothing else than keep improving in 4 starts this season. 6th of 14 on his 3yo debut at Ripon (1m1f, good to soft), 3rd of 13 in June at Doncaster (7f, soft) and finally off the mark at Salisbury (6f, firm) in his three maidens and proved that nice win at Salisbury, on his first ever try at 6f and finally meeting firm ground, was no fluke, when winning again in nice style on his handicap/Polytrack debut at Kempton 11 days ago, kept over the same trip (6f) and racing off 72. Saloomy made all and ridden 2f out he responded very well when hardly pressed 1f out by Sir Maximilian and Intransingent and easily came on top at the business end comfortably beating the Andrew Balding-trained 3yo by 1L. Intransigent ran again off the same mark (85) in a 3yo+ handicap over the same C&D 3 days ago and bolted up winning by 2.25L with Noverre To Go second and a few more decent sprinters in behind. Performance that of course boosted the form of that previous race. Saloomy has been upped 5lb for that win but Raul Da Silva offsets 3 of those 5lb with his claim (very useful) and this son of Shamardal should be still on the upward curve and can go very close in this race where the horses to beat is Galician who is way more exposed (12th career start) and needs her career best to win this off 91 which is 11lb higher than her last winning mark even if she ran very well in defeat last time out at Ascot in a 6f handicap for the Shergar Cup when just 1/2L behind Mince off 88. There are few stables in better form than David Simcock's one at the moment since the Newmarket-based trainer has saddled 12 winners from 50 runners this month (24%) and is 6-23 (26%) with his 3yo runners in August and the stats are even more impressive of late: 8 winners, 1 third and 4 fourths from the last 14 runners saddled by Simcock this week.

Edberg · August 18, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 2.20 Ripon PRODIGALITY 3pts win @ 7/1 bog (Boylesports and Bet365) Fast improver and still very lightly raced 4yo sprinter trained by Ronald Harris (a master with this kind of horses). Reached his new peak last time out when beating with extreme ease a 14-runner field at Brighton 8 days ago in a class 4 handicap over 6f on good to firm racing off a mark of 78. This is way tougher and he has to face an 8lb hike in the weight but the style of his last win and his previous two solid efforts in defeat (twice second in big field handicaps in July and June). High draw in stall nr. 18 should be a plus and the very in-form Graham Lee (45 wins in his first season on the flat, 3 yesterday at Newcastle) is surely a positive booking.

Lars · August 18, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August ARRIGO (14:30) is perhaps a very predictable selection from me, as I seemingly constantly bring up the fact that â€˜foreign raidersâ€™ are overpriced mainly due to the fact that they arenâ€™t trained within the UK or Ireland. Arrigo has some solid form in Group Company in Germany and Qatar and should relish the 1m5f trip, having shaped as if 1m4f in the past had been on the sharp side. If he stays, he should be in the mix at the finish and is overpriced. Ex-German trained who made the move to Qatar after a bold effort in a Group 1 in Italy, a fast finishing 2^nd to Campanologist. He shaped as if heâ€™d stay further then, having took an age to find his feet and make his challenge and that bodes well on his first try at the 1m5f distance. Arrigo had also shaped at 1m3f that he was in need of much further to be seen at his best, so this trip should be ideal, especially with a good pace likely to be set by the John Gosden pacemaker Dartford. Thereâ€™s also suggestions in his breeding that the extra distance wonâ€™t be an issue, with Shirocco progeny (also represented by Brown Panther) doing fairly well at this sort of distance with 18% at 1m5f, 20% at 1m6f. Although those statistics may be skewered somewhat by the fact theyâ€™re relatively small sample sizes, it does bode well nonetheless. Stamina questions aside, Arrigo has a chance on his bare form anyway. Although Campanologist never shows his best in the UK it seems, heâ€™s a very solid performer at the highest level abroad and is a fair yardstick and that form is being overlooked, and it really shouldnâ€™t be. On official ratings, Arrigo has every chance being only 4lbs lower than the top-rated in the field and still looks capable of progression given this emphasis on stamina. He does have a 233 day absence to contend with, but his Qatari handler seems highly touted in that part of the world and Arrigo has run well fresh anyway, so it might not be such a big issue. Effectively, heâ€™s overpriced on his form abroad, shouldnâ€™t have too much difficulty with the trip and if heâ€™s fit and raring to go, far from deserves to go off a double figure price. As heâ€™s currently priced that way, a small wager is in order in what is a competitive heat. KAKATOSI (15:40) hasnâ€™t been in any sort of form since December but has had excuses on the past three occasions on turf and has such fallen to a nice looking mark. With conditions to suit, likely more prominent tactics used and Jimmy Fortune back on board, heâ€™s more than capable of outrunning these big odds significantly. Kakatosi is a horse that relishes decent ground, seven furlongs and being towards the front of affairs. This was emphasised by his three consecutive victories in 2010 where he looked like heâ€™d be a horse more than capable of playing a hand in Group races. Possibly as a result of his specialist distance and the distinct lack of pattern race opportunities, his confidence was dented somewhat and he hasnâ€™t been in the same form since. That being said, he showed real promise at Lingfield in December, where just being run out of things in the closing stages over a mile (a trip that is pushing his stamina, even on an easy track like that). He didnâ€™t back that form up next time out but has had excuses on turf, thus his handicap rating plummeting. His turf reappearance came on soft ground, a surface that doesnâ€™t suit before running far too free in a first time visor, not standing a chance with the fractions he set (was interestingly well-backed in the market, so Andrew Balding obviously thought the ability was still there then). Last time out he was dropped to 6f and ridden by an inexperienced apprentice. He was held-up, which doesnâ€™t suit at all and couldnâ€™t land a blow at all, especially with the jockey still having plenty to learn in the saddle. Itâ€™s excusable I think and Iâ€™m willing to give a chance to this one today, especially with the Andrew Balding yard having had two big-race successes towards the end of this week, so the yard is obviously in form. Kakatosi gets conditions to suit, there are hardly bundles of pace-setters in the race and he should be able to get towards the front of the pack, if so, heâ€™ll definitely outrun these odds and a mark of 86 should be extremely workable on past form, a level Iâ€™m sure heâ€™ll reach again in time. Only a minimum stake bet as he could well have lost all confidence and this may well be another run in trying to build that back up, but at the odds, heâ€™s worth following for a little while when getting conditions to suit, today being one of them. Bets 14:30 Newbury â€“ Arrigo; 1pt @ 18/1 Bet365 (bog) 15:40 Newbury â€“ Kakatosi; 1pt @ 33/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)

chris34 · August 18, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 3.00 Chester Field been cut up significantly by non runners. Address Unknown is 5lb higher for winning at Ascot last weekend, having finished 2nd to Scatter Dice the time before Scatter Dice is a further 3lb better off with Address Unknown so he is probably held if taking that form literally. Communicator is proving very consistent this season but would probably prefer some more cut. Same can be said for Local Hero for all he did win a competitive listed hurdle at Market Rasen last time out but that too was on good ground. Mica Mika is yet another whos best form comes with some cut in the ground. So with that all taken into account Scatter Dice looks to have an obvious chance of regaining the winning thread. She really is one of the toughest handicappers I have seen this summer. She doesnt look handicapped out of things on last weeks 3rd when given far too much to do but that was a return to form after a disappointing effort prior to that. Wide draw would have been off putting around here but with the field decimated by non runners that makes that less of a concern and just looks in better form and open to more than the rest of the field here. 4pt win Scatter Dice 2/1 pp

robertob · August 18, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 13.35 Doncaster: Main Beach @ 15/2 Betfred Main Beach is down to a very tempting handicap mark and he showed in his last two races already that he is very competitive in this sphere of his current mark. He travelled beautifully at Yarmouth and looked 2f out a very lively contender for the win, though didn't find enough to finish better than fifth eventually. This form works out very well however as many horses of this race done pretty well in subsequent races. Main Beach slipped another 2lb down in the mark in consequence receiving a chance by the handicapper. He almost took advantage of it LTO as he travelled very well again in rear of the field and finished very strongly when asked for an effort this time, though he found one horse too good with eventual winner Discression. This Discression followed up with a smashing performance yesterday when slaughtering a competitive class 4 field, winning by five lengths! Main Beach is again 2lb up now for this effort but that shouldn't make too much of a difference. He's is obviously very well inform and even though this here today is a good and competitive field I feel this is his chance to put his head in front finally again. 14.55 Ripon: Kyllachy Star @ 7/1 Bet365 Very competitive field with plenty of chances and interesting contenders which made me think if it's worth to have a bet in this race but eventually I find the price offered for one of my favourite horses in training too tempting as I feel he should be much shorter in the betting market as he's done not much wrong this year. Honest, always trying, and seldom disappointing: Kyllachy Star is such a consistent horse and demonstrated that this year again with a couple of very decent efforts, yet he's slipping down pound for pound in the mark. His only bad performance this year came at Sandown in the Coral Challenge when he finished five lengths beaten in ninths place. In all his other five starts this year he's been beaten a maximum of 2Â¾ lengths while contesting in big and competitive Handicaps mostly. Just a fortnight ago he finished an excellent fifth at Thirsk in the 18 runners strong Summer Cup, only tiring in the final furlong to miss a place in the money, but still being only 2Â¼ lenghts beaten while finishing clear of the rest of the field. Interestingly Kyllachy Star slips down another pound in the mark so that he's now allowed to race of a mark off 87 which is 7lb below his last winning mark! That must give him a more than decent chance in this field. Another bonus is that Richard Fahey has his string in good order at the moment. 19.00 Lingfield: Catchanova @ 6/1 bet365 + Green Earth 10/1 Bet365 It's easy for me to narrow down the field to this two horses, though I simply can't separate them as I fancy both chances strongly considering the price. Catchanova surly doesn't win that often as he was only two times successful on turf anyway but he's down to a very handy mark, 4lb below his last turf winning mark as he won off 68 at Windsor last year in October. He needs fast ground to be really competitive and with the ground being good to firm at the Lingfield turf track I think he is poised to run a big race. Almost the same applies to Green Earth. Ryan Moore is booked for the ride which suggest connections expecting a good performance and money is arriving now for the five year old gelding. Have been able to catch 10/1 and think it's a great price. He didn't show much this year to be too enthusiastic about his chance but he's down to a good mark, only 1lb above his last turf winning mark when he won at Brighton last year in July with a bit of authority. He also needs fast ground to be seen at his best and with today's conditions at Lingfield in his favour he should be not too far away I suppose.

richard-westwood · August 18, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 3.20 newm very open hcap and lots in with chances but there seems some very good value in MR RED CLUBS (94) who has been showing some good speed in defeat of late and comes here today with decent claimer on board taking off a good 7lb which throws him in on paper ,lots of dangers but at 16/1 he looks a nice price and hopefully will run his race mr red clubs 5pts e.w 16/1

richard-westwood · August 18, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 2.45 newm another tricky hcap but i like the look of RED AVALANCHE who recorded a speed rating of 85+ lto and looks to have great chances off bottom weight if he can run his race today .........tough race but looks to have been given a decent chance red avalanche 5pts e.w 8/1 bl sq

richard-westwood · August 18, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 3.30 gt st wilfred ripon youve got to have a go in this and im looking for a bit of value if im going to play ......could stick a pin in this one but looking for a combination of speed and weight i like TAX FREE who gets a nice racing weight today and just looks like a horse thats been layed out for this as coming to boil (last 2 runs 88,96) available at 32.0 on betfair he looks a cracker ,of the fancied horses i think COLONEL MAK looks a tad high in the weights still but he does possess a good turn of foot and claimer will help so shouldnt be too far away if running his race ......14.0 is fair price so lets have a play tax free 5pts win 32.0 betfair colonel mak 5pts win 14.0 betfair

richard-westwood · August 18, 2012

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August newb 3.05 soul and strong suit look the 2 to be on here but soul might just want the ground much softer and strong suit hasnt really been anywhere near his best so possibly that might leave the door open for LETHAL FORCE ......lethal force on paper has a lot to find with the top 2 but there is no doubt this horse is very quick on a good day as he showed when just going down against ishvana recording a very quick 109 that day and a reproduction of that would see him in the mix today .......dropped whip last time so forgiven lacklustre 88 that day and if bouncing back then huge quotes in 9 runner race might look silly and hope top 2 dont run their races lethal force 5pts win 32.0 and 5pts place 5.8 betfair

richard-westwood · August 18, 2012