2012/13 Heineken Cup

[Spankyf]

I did well with outrights last season so I’m putting up my bets early to avail of some value. I just don’t see a team winning a competition like the Heineken three years in a row. Leinster will of course be there or thereabouts but I think the value is on the opposition this time, even with the formidable Irish showing of 4 from the last 6 winners. My bets are (all PP): French winner 6/5 5 units Harlequins 12/1 1 units Leicester 14/1 1 units I feel there’s more optimism from the English sides this time round and can see either of the above two giving teams a hard time – if they bring their A game. Sure, Northampton or Saracens could come into it too but I think the above two have a bit more momentum going into this season. Leicester have the toughest draw of all with a brutal pool containing Ospreys, Treviso and the always strong Toulouse. With six new recruits and competition in every position they are well able to handle themselves and will have as good a chance as any to win it outright. There is certainly value in the pool winners for me. In Pool 3, Harlequins have a very nice price at 4/5 in a team with two weaker sides, Connacht and Zebre. O’Shea’s team will have learned the painful lessons from last year in Galway and will savour this draw for its ease and for the opportunity to exact revenge for their shock exit last year. I suspect they may travel better than Biarritz who had a distinctly average season last term in league and Euro and have fell to Italian sides in the competition in recent years. Good value in Quins for the win at 4/5. Pool 2 is so hard to call IMO but someone with big stones might want to look at Leicester at 2/1. If there’s anyone with a good idea of the English game out there let us know what you think. It will be the most competitive group and will likely only produce one quarter finalist. Pool 6 winners go Montpellier at around 7/1, Cardiff at 10/3, Sale at 9/1 and Toulon at 5/6, which I’m definitely taking. Toulon have been very good in the last two years and I reckon Wilko’s got a swan song in him. Cardiff are overvalued and have lost a lot of players this season with younger Welsh talent filling the gaps so by my reckoning they are unproven this season and Montpellier will have as good a chance as them for qualifying. Look forward to hearing some more tips from the regulars this season again.

[Aidymac]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup *Heineken Cup Outright 2012/2013* *Munster - 5 Points WIN @ 16/1 Sportingbet* I feel Munster may have a good chance in the Heineken Cup this coming season. They have just signed Casey Lualala who has played for the Cardiff Blues and the Canterbury Crusaders in New Zealand. He is a terrific player and will bring a lot to the Munster side this year. Also the new signing of manager Rob Penney who in the past was the manager of Canterbury should be a big boost to the club in general. He is a very educated and positive manager who should bring a lot of value to the club. Lualala has played for the All-Blacks twice, and any player who gets an All-Black cap has to be a highly talented player. It will take Munster some time to adjust to the new things happening in the club, but if they do gel quite soon they can threaten for the Heineken Cup once more. They have a tough group to get through, facing Racing Metro, Saracens and Edinburgh who were semi-finalists last year. If they get through the group stage, they will be no bigger than 8/1 for the HC, and i am confident this could be a good year for Munster after a few years of hardship and being second best to Leinster. I feel at 16/1 they are worth a bet.

[kreddan76]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Just wondering, If you think there is going to be a French winner why you pick outright Harlequins & Leicester ??????????, last time I looked they are in Engerland . Just asking ,I not saying you are doing anything silly just curious .

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup

Just wondering, If you think there is going to be a French winner why you pick outright Harlequins & Leicester ??????????, last time I looked they are in Engerland . Just asking ,I not saying you are doing anything silly just curious .

Well both teams have big packs (which is a must in Europe) especially Leicester and they both have attacking backs to score tries. I personally think Saracens have the game to perform the best out of the English clubs in Europe.

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Guys if you're thinking of betting on the Ospreys v Treviso match tomorrow the weather here in South Wales is atrocious and likely to be the same tomorrow so bear that in mind.

[Gman]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup I've had a look at outrights and I think Ulster at over 20-1 seems quite generous. To make this clear I am an Ulsterman and I hope that this isn't clouding my judgement. Ulster reached the final last year (admittedly this was a surprise) and have strengthed their squad this year, they now have a strong 22 rather than just a strong match day XV. The returning Bowe and Wilson as well as the addition of Nick Williams (who was actually starting to look fit prior to his rib injury) seem to be good pieces of business. They are the only team going into the Heineken cup unbeaten this season and despite having a tough group will be looking qualify top. One area of concern for me is at 10 where Paddy Jackson is unproven. I will be monitoring this bet later in the tournament looking to pay it off as Ulster's odds drop. Heineken cup 2012/13 Winner Ulster 28-1 Youwin This weekend I suggest that Exeter will beat the 17 point spread against Leinster. So far this season Leinster have not been at their top form ad have a injury concerns over a number of their squad. Exeter have proven themselves consistent at every level they have played and I think they will spurred on by the chance to take the step up once more and play in Europe's elite competition. Exeter +17 @ 1.91 Bet365

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup

Just wondering, If you think there is going to be a French winner why you pick outright Harlequins & Leicester ??????????, last time I looked they are in Engerland . Just asking ,I not saying you are doing anything silly just curious .

I’ll expain… it’s a bit risky. Basically, I think Toulon, Clermont and possiblty Toulouse are the most likely winners – all French. I’m betting 5 units on that, so if I win, I win 6 units. I am having a punt on two English sides too – Leicester and Harlequins at longer odds. If either of those teams win, I will have made a healthy profit, easily covering the 5 units I bet on a French winner. If any French team make the final, I can bet on the other side at around evens to get some money back. If its all French affair I’ve made my money. If either Leics or Quins make the final, I’ve got a 12 and 14/1 shot on one side and I just bet on the other team to cover my stake or make more money. I lose my stakes if the final consists of English teams other than the above, or if it has combination of Irish, Scottish, Italian or Welsh finalists. Basically I’m laying an Irish/Welsh/English (other than above two) winner in a roundabout way. Not everyone’s way to go but it works for me. Won’t be betting this week gents, though with Steve’s info and Ospreys unconvincing form I like the look of the Treviso handicap. Also think there’s value in handicaps for Connacht, Scarlets and Cardiff. Haven’t watched any French rugby this season so just going to enjoy it in the presence of Stuart Barnes. Looking forward to Racing – Munster and Toulouse – Leicester especially. Good luck all.

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Racing Metro v Munster Racing Metro again look a team with just enough quality to finish mid table in the Top 14. They have a very decent front 5 with Ducalon and Szarzewski at the helm and it is in the scrum where I feel this match will be won or lost. Munster proved they are still a very decent side in their loss to Leinster last weekend and although France is never an easy place to go Racing Metro just aren't of the same calibre as teams like Clermont, Toulouse or Toulon. Munster know how to win games in the Heineken cup as they have proved time and time again. They have talisman and captain Paul O'Connelll back for this match and still have enough quality to get off to a fine start with an away win in this opening group encounter. Recommended Bet: Munster to beat Racing Metro at Evens with SkyBet Full preview here http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-racing-metro-v-munster-betting-european-veterans-munster-still-good-enough-for-victory-in-france

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Leinster v Exeter Betting The bookmakers have Exeter as +17 underdogs for this match and I feel they are vastly underestimating the Chiefs. Exeter have looked a real force and only once have they been really outclassed and that was in an away fixture to Leicester. Exeter will obviously be pumped up for this and just so long as they don't let the occasion get to them they are a far better side than that handicap suggests. Also Leinster are still without key players and haven't demonstrated the same form as yet of last year. Recommended Bet: Exeter +17 to beat Leinster at 10/11 with bet365 Full preview here http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-leinster-v-exeter-betting-exeter-vastly-underrated-on-the-handicap

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Clermont v Scralets Betting This should be a really exciting match with both sides showing an array of attacking talent. The entire backline of the Scarlets have been capped at some stage with Wales and the majority will be sure to feature in the Autumn internationals. Scarlets will undoubtebly create chances but it is whether they can cope with the power of the Clermont scrum. Despite strengthening their scrum somewhat and the emergence of Samson Lee at prop they couldn't cope against the front 5 of the Ospreys and the Opsreys scrum is no where as decent as Clermont's. Scarlet's scrum isn't good enough to go far in this competition but I'm sure they'll score plenty of tries and of course tries win games. They are +15 underdogs here and should their scrum hold firm they are well capable of beating that handicap. Recommended Bet: Scarlets +15 to beat Clermont at 10/11 with bet 365. Full prview here http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-clermont-v-scarlets-betting-formidable-task-for-scarlets-but-good-enough-to-stay-within-the-handicap

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Toulouse v Leicester I think it would be a real achievement for Leicester to prevent Toulouse from gaining a bonus point victory in this game as they really are scoring tries for fun at the moment, exceeding 30pts in their last three matches and they are pretty much at full strength for this match. Toulouse at home are a match for anyone and I think that they can easily exceed a -6 pt handicap. Leicester I'm sure will qualify from this group ahead of Opsreys and Treviso but won't be a match for Toulouse during this match unless Tuilagi wreaks havoc in attack. Recommended Bet: Toulouse -6 to beat Leicester at Evens with Sportingbet Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-toulouse-v-leicester-betting-toulouse-too-hot-for-leicester-tigers

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Toulon v Montpellier I have a feeling Montpellier are going to be really outclassed during this match especially with 4 of their key players missing or on the bench. With a full squad this game would have been a tough task for Montpellier but it's going to be a real step too far here. Toulon are a real class act and rightly perceived as one of the favourites for this years competition The bookmakers have Montpellier as -14 underdogs and that handicap would have felt about right against a full strength Montpellier but with 4 of their best players missing I think Toulon will easily eclipse that line. Recommended Bet: Toulon -14 to beat Montpellier at 10/11 with Bet Fred Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-toulon-v-montpellier-betting-full-strength-toulon-to-wallop-montpellier

[Gman]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup It seemed to go well in the Heineken cup last weekend so I thought I'd have another go - Firstly I'll take Ulster on the handicap this weekend against Glasgow. Ulster are a team with momentum at the moment and will have Nick Williams and Ruan Peinaar back in the team (although Marshall is unlucky to miss out given he produced a fine performance last weekend). They are no strangers to Glasgow playing them year in, year out in the Celtic League. This season Ulster have already beaten Glasgow 18-10 with a somewhat understrength team although this was in Belfast. Ulster -4 @ 1.91 Stanjames Second bet is Toulon against Cardiff. Cardiff's form has been patchy in the Rabo this year and have been defeated at home three times already (Edinburgh, Glasgow and Ulster). Last week they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory against bottom of the premiership Sale. Toulon by contrast have only lost once this season (against Toulouse) and looked impressive against Montpellier 2XV last week. My only concern comes with backing a French side away from home in Europe, which traditionally has not been the greatest of ideas. Toulon -6 @ 1.91 Stanjames

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Glasgow v Ulster Ulster look a very decent site indeed and look a better side than the one which lost in last years Heineken Cup competition which all looks very ominous for Glasgow having already lost against the Ulstermen this season. I know it's early days yet but at this stage I would say that Ulster look a stronger side than Irish counterparts Leinster. Whilst Leinster still have one of Europe's best defences their attack seems to have lost it's cutting edge where as Ulster look far more accomplished in attack. On current form I just can't see Glasgow getting anything from this game other than a losing bonus point. Ulster are 1/2 to win this tie which I think is a pretty decent price actually but I fancy the Irish to come away with a narrow victory and the Scots will at least play with enough pride to keep the score respectable Recommended Bet: Ulster to beat Glasgow by 1 -12 pts at 13/8 with Stan James Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-glasgow-v-ulster-betting-ulster-to-take-control-of-pool-4-with-win-against-the-scots

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Castres v Northampton This game is a tough one to call but you just can't ignore Castre's home record. They have also rung the changes for this match and include rampaging foward Joe Tekori who failed to start against Ulster. Castres have also had an extra day and a half recovery having played last Friday night, with Northampton having played two days later on the Sunday. Castres -3 has to be the call here in what should be a very tight and nervy encounter and the extra recovery time the Castres players have had could be a very big factor indeed. Recommended Bet: Castres -3 to beat Northampton at 10/11 with Ladbrokes Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-castres-v-northampton-betting-edgey-game-in-store-for-both-sides-at-stade-ernest-wallon

[Marazan]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Glasgow are decimated by injury, the totally of backs on the field and bench is the sum total of fit and available backs in the entire squad. Makeshift doesn't even begin to describe it. That Ulster are at on -5 is close to negligent by the bookies.

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Saracens v Racing Metro Saracens look a class above Metro here although the neutral venue does favour their opponents slightly. Racing Metro struggled against the power of Munster at times last weekend and Saracens front 5 are more than a match for anybody. With a solid scrum and Charlie Hodgson in imperious from with the boot I forsee Saracens stifiling any sort of attack from Metro and Hodgson will kick them to a clinical victory. Saracens are -4 on the HT handicap and I think they can easily exceed that line and punters can enjoy spending their winnings down the pub for the remainder of the match. Recommended Bet: Saracens -4 to beat Racing Metro at 10/11 with Bet Fred on the half time handicap Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-saracens-v-racing-metro-betting-hodgson-to-win-kicking-dual-with-barkley-in-brussels

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Exeter v Clermont Sandy Park is a real fortress for Exeter these days and they have already beaten Saracens and Harlequins there this season. Should they keep Clermont on the back foot early on they could well frustrate Clermont and come away with a victory but I can't see it against this class French outfit. The French have the continuity of a convincing win over the Scarlets and will want to take control of this very tough group as early as possible. They are dangerous from all over the pitch, have a huge pack and it will take some effort from Exeter to restrict them as they did Leinster last weekend. Many people may well be put off as the French often aren't best of travellers but this is a real class outfit here. Recommended Bet: Clermont -4 to beat Exeter at 10/11 with BoyleSports Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-exeter-v-clermont-betting-clermont-s-attack-too-good-for-tough-exeter-side

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Great calls tonight by everyone:clap. Agree with the above: looks great value on Clermont.

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Leicester v Ospreys Welford Road is always a tough place to go but the Ospreys players should relish it having had to play most of their home matches in front of a half empty Liiberty Stadium. Ospreys have the pack to trouble Leicester and in Dan Biggar they have a man who is in great form with the boot and I believe they are decent value with a +9 handicap at 10/11 with Coral Recommended Bet: Ospreys +9 to beat Leicester at 10/11 with Coral Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-leicester-v-ospreys-betting-ospreys-pack-good-enough-to-challenge-leicester

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Munster v Edinburgh Munster really need a victory of some margin here with Saracens already boasting a bonus point victory away to Edinburgh. I think they are well capable of doing just that against an Edinburgh side low on confidence but feel the handicap is too risky. A far safer bet would seem to be Munster to win both halves at 4/6 as they will surley be on top for the majority of the match in front of their home fans Recommended Bet: Munster to win both halves at 4/6 with bet365 Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-munster-v-edinburgh-betting-out-of-form-edinburgh-no-match-for-munster

[kenpisi]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Cardiff v Toulon Cardiff have had a pretty decent home form in the heineken cup over the last few years but have lost 5/7 Rabo home games this year, and threw away the game last week to an average Sale side. Toulon on the other hand have won 6/7 away games in the T14 this year and look solid all around, even on the road. Cardiff conceded 15 penalties last week at Sale, and more of the same could prove costly with Wilkinson kicking the goals. Although backing French teams away in the HC is always risky, I think Toulon will be took strong here and look good at -6 to win the game. Debut bet: Toulon -6

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Edinburgh - Racing Metro Edinburgh have won 2 from their 6 home matches this season. Apart from the 0-45 defeat to Saracens, they’ve lost by 5 to Munster and Treviso, and by a point against Scarlets. Wins came against Zebre and the Ospreys. They’ve been inconsistency has continued from last year but their run in the last European campaign suggests they should be performing better than they have. They were unlucky to lose out on a bonus point against Racing Metro last week, having managed to beat them home and away last season. Racing have shown good form at home in the league bar two blips against Montpellier and Montois. They’re nothing special away with two wins from 7 against lowly Agen and Bayonne. They’ve won 3/8 at home and 2/7 games away in this competition since 2010. Incidentally they’ve scored 13 points away in the last four games running. Edinburgh make eight changes to the side with internationals Cairns and Talei back but Visser misses out through injury. Racing’s eight changes seem to sacrifice guile for muscle and they too have a number of rested internationals back into the fold including Szarzewski and Ducalcon. Looking like heavy weather so it could be a slugfest. In any case I hope it will be an exciting encounter like the matches last year and I’m interested in the home win purely on value. I'm happy to take the odds here. Edinburgh Win @ 2.38 Pinnacle

[Nusadan]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup This thread up today has been very quiet since the October matches, showing nothing about last week's matches...Had a good result on Wasps last night with the h'cap!

[wprathead]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Is fecking PISSING down in Biarritz! Under 37.5 @ 5/6 looks to tempting to turn down in the Biarritz v Connacht game.. This is gonna be a forward dominated, battle in the trenches style game- which will suit Biarritz game plan.. I'm on Under 2.5 Tries @ 11/5 on small stake- I expect this to be a Parks v Yachvilli contest good luck to all EDIT: finished 17-0 to Biarritz, with the French scoring 2 tries. Both bets came in so happy days :)

[Nusadan]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Had good result on a late bet of Biarritz +15.5 on Betfair at 2.53 odds, thanks to late conversion from the sideline! Ulster looks a speccy at -12.5 (betfair) and -11.5 (bet365) against Northampton tonight! Northampton lost their captain and England hooker due to suspension and lost at home last week to Ulster 25-9, and Ulster have not been beaten at home this season at all! Weather just overcast today, so will help their international standard backline!

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Saracens v Munster I expect this to be a very tight fixture but i think Saracens will reverse last weekends result and take home the spoils at Vicarage Road. They could just have easily won the game at Thormond Park last weekend were it not for the missed attempts by Farrell but I don't see them slipping up here. Both sides have big packs which should cancel eachother out but Saracens defence is far better than Munster's and I just can't see Munster breaching that watertight defence. It's still all very much to play for and I take Saracens to just edge past a Munster side that rarely concedes many points and to put qualification from this group still firmly within their hands. Recommended Bet: Saracens to beat Munster by 1 - 12 pts at 6/4 with Stan James Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-saracens-v-munster-betting-saracens-to-edge-past-munster-and-take-control-of-pool-1 Toulon v Sale Sale have some decent players but have often been guilty of playing too much rugby and have been seriously found out this season as their league position at the foot of the Aviva Premiership suggests. With very little other than pride to play for here in Pool 6 they could be on to a real hiding to nothing especially away from home.I think Toulon will hunt out that bonus point victory but once they score that fourth try they could easily take their foot off the gas so the handicap of Toulon -23 looks a little cagey to me although Sale do concede a lot of points during the second half of matches. Therefore I think Toulon -12 on the second half handicap is the safer option as their multiple subs pile the pressure on and wear down Sale in to submission. Recommended Bet: Toulon -12 at 10/11 on the second half handicap with Bet Fred Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-toulon-v-sale-sharks-betting-toulon-to-hunt-out-bonus-point-victory-against-sale

[DAC]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup ERC - Bayonne v Dragons - 10th January Bayonne -15. I'm a NGD Dragons fan by the way, own a season ticket and have been all over Europe with them, I was in Mogliano last month, which I thoroughly recommend if you're ever going near Venice. Anyway. This is the Dragons 4th game since the 26th December. The game against the Blues was thrown away and then a decent, but losing, result against the Ospreys who had just hammered the Scarlets gave some hope for improvement. But no, we got mullered away in Connaught last week 31-11. I was at the Drags v Bayonne game last year and we stupidly threw away a lead before half time and were quite unlucky not to score at the end of the 80 but what struck me was the different is physicality between the two sides. We have a decent team out, but it's one we're forced to play because of injuries when in reality most of them should be being rested in this mean nothing game, it's also Steff's first game at 10 for a long time after falling out of favour with our inept coaches.

Tom Prydie, Will Harries, Adam Hughes, Andy Tuilagi, Mike Poole, Steffan Jones, Jonathan Evans, Owen Evans, Hugh Gustafson, Nathan Buck, Adam Jones, Rob Sidoli, Jevon Groves, Lewis Evans ©, Ieuan Jones.

As usual we've nothing on the bench. I'm taking Bayonne at -15 @ Bet365 and no doubt that will increase a point or two before kick off, I'm also having a little on the overs. Bayonne's form has been patchy but this is a must win 5 try bonus point game for them if they're to stay in with a chance of qualification. I'd mark this as a 70% chance.

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup A Dragons fan eh where abouts are you from then DAC. I used to follow Ebbw Vale before the regions formed but now there's a vast void in the valleys and the majority of supporters don't feel affiliated to any of the four regions. There was talk of another region forming but it's not going to happen there just isn't enough money about and the 4 regions are struggling as it is. Bad times on the way for Welsh rugby and their performances in the Rabo and Autumn interantionals reflect this I feel.

[DAC]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Newport, Steve, but living in Cardiff. Roger Lewis will be known as the person who killed Welsh Rugby. Did you know his salary is linked to paying off Barclays early? So, instead of giving the regions a decent budget to be competitive - the WRU are paying off the stadium debt earlier than it needs to, benefiting no one apart from Lewis. As for the "Regions" Llanelli and Cardiff stayed exactly the same - Newport and Gwent were properly shafted by the West Walian idiots in the WRU. Ah well.