2012/13 Heineken Cup

[DAC]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Interestingly the cap is now -14. Must be the weather.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Good luck with the bet DAC. I had Bayonne down for a 14+ win but they aren't playing their strongest either. Northampton Castres I wouldn't be an expert on Castres but I know they're not as bad as the handicap suggests at first sight. They lost their last two, by two points at home to Toulouse and then by two away to Grenoble, who've got a 100% home record. That should've been a victory though and after close misses they've got to be riled against a not-invincible-at-home Northampton. They won 8 straight before that including a double over Glasgow and a home win vs the Saints leaving them in a great position to challenge for 2nd spot in the group. They've won 4/10 their away matches this year and have been within 12 in 8/10 of them (heavy losses against Toulon & Ulster). Northampton's very impressive away victory was more of an off day for Ulster IMO. At home they've been so so, about an average win record with losses against the better teams that've played at Franklins Gardens (Saracens, Harlequins twice & Ulster in this competition). They won nicely last weekend (tipped by Steve in the Aviva thread) vs an understrength Exeter and the only worry I have is that they look to be close to full strength. They've only beaten the handicap once this season against Wasps in their 1st home match. Don't see them doing it to a team performing as well as if not better than them this season. Castres +12.5 @ 1.9

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Out to +13 now Spank with Bet Victor I think it looks a great bet. I watched the Northampton Exeter game Saturday and it was a decent win but as I said the Exeter scrum looked pretty weak and they made Northampton look great at scrummaging. The bookies look way out of line to me I think Castres will pose Northampton all sorts of problems at the scrum and if Castres could come away with a win then they would the have a real chance at qualifiying for the next round when they face Ulster at home next week, so surely this game will be a lot tighter than the handicap suggests but the French are reknowned for being bad away from home hence the handicap.

[DAC]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Apologies on the Dragons bet, which was awful. It was also even more awful to see my team snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Luckily for me the overs came in.

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Clermont v Exeter Exeter couldn't have wished for a tougher group in their debut season but they have already exceeded expectations in my book by coming away from Leinster with a bonus point in a very narrow 9 - 6 loss which is no mean fete and then of course the back to back wins against the Scarlets. They were however humbled by Clermont and I really fear for them here in France. Their scrum couldn't handle Northampton last week and with the same front row named they will face some serious heat from one of Europe's biggest packs. Clermont will surely try and hunt out a bonus point victory here to try and finish as one of the top 2 seeds and I forsee a victory of some margin against an Exeter side out of form. Recommended Bet Clermont -18 to beat Exeter at 10/11 with William Hill Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-clermont-v-exeter-betting-clermont-to-hunt-out-bonus-point-victory-against-exeter Toulon v Cardiff Blues Toulon are quite rightly regarded as one of the favourites for this years competition and will qualify for the next stage with a win here against Cardiff. Impressive as their form looks in the Heineken Cup they've beaten a very poor Sale side twice, beat a Montpellier side minus many of it's top players and struggled in patches in Cardiff but were good value in the end for their 22 - 14 victory. So I think the bookmakers are vastly underestimating Cardiff here and with the Six Nations on the horizon surely the Welsh boys will give it their best shot with Warren Gatland surely to be a spectator of some sort. Cardiff have named their strongest side for some time and I think they look decent value with a +23 handicap. Recommended Bet: Cardiff +23 to beat Toulon at 10/11 with bwin Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-toulon-v-cardiff-blues-betting-bookmakers-underestimating-cardiff-with-generous-handicap

[Nobber]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Interesting take on the Cardiff game. I bet Toulon to top the group before the start of the tournament (I thought it was a gimme) so was quite happy to sit back and just watch. In all honesty I can't see Toulon being threatened by Cardiff - but 23 points is an awful lot to give up if they kick their penalties and take their chances. You might just have talked me into a bet.

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Ospreys v Leicester Watching both the Rabo12 and Aviva this year the level of rugby being played in the English league is of a far higher standard. The English clubs seem to field far stronger sides away from home and that means the games are of a far higher quality. Ospreys are a pretty dcenet team but they just don't play the level of rugby that Leicester do week in week out. Ospreys have an excellent record at home in Europe but the absence of Ashley Beck is a huge loss as he's such a vital figure in defence and I can see Leicester grinding down the Ospreys to come away with a narrow win. Recommended Bet: Leicester to beat the Ospreys by 1 - 10 pts at 15/8 with Ladbrokes Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-ospreys-v-leicester-betting-leicester-to-up-the-intensity-at-the-liberty-stadium

[Nobber]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Have to agree about the disparity between the Aviva and the Rabo12, been apparent for some time. In general (there are exceptions of course) the average Aviva team seem to be bigger/stronger/faster than than their Rabbo12 counterpart. Again, what is also noticeable is that, in general terms, the English teams do not let up when the game is already won/lost (think Toulon on Friday) but keep up the intensity right on to the end. I'm with you SteveO, can't see the Ospreys beating a power-packed team like Leicester - although it'll be a hard game and the Ref. will be integral to the way the game is played - and think the Tigers will win reasonably comfortably. However, just to be on the safe side, I've bet Leicester to win +1 with Stan James.

[Nobber]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Thanks SteveO. Got the bet up...but so lucky Toulon switched-off in the last few minutes with the scoreline massively flattering Cardiff. On reflection, I don't see my 9/1 on Toulon to win the Cup being such as good a bet as I originally thought !!!

[DAC]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Tigers are very much a second half team in the league, I think HT Ospreys FT Tigers at 6.5 is a cracking bet. I've also taken Leicester on the cap. I also fancy Treviso to hold Toulouse.......... +25 Treviso very small stakes.

[Nobber]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Well, I thought that, despite Barnes' comments, the Ospreys played exceptionally well and were extremely unlucky to draw - Biggar having an 'off' day with his kicking was the difference. Unfortunately, no Welsh representation in the last eight and I'm afraid I can't see it getting any better in the short-medium term. Really glad to have found this thread and my thanks to the contributors for making it so interesting. Look forward to next week's games.

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Ospreyswould have been deserved winners but Leicester threw the game away when leading by 5 pts. They kicked the ball far too much and when they did it wasn't for territory it was a ****tly little box kick or up and under that Opsreys won everytime. Cracking game though and will have to sky+ all next weeks games because I'm off to Latvia for a stag bash.

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Just to add Dac was so unlucky with his bet but his read of the match was correct.

[Nobber]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup

Tigers are very much a second half team in the league' date=' I think HT Ospreys FT Tigers at 6.5 is a cracking bet. [b']I've also taken Leicester on the cap. I also fancy Treviso to hold Toulouse.......... +25 Treviso very small stakes.

DAC, Does that mean that you've bet the Tigers with a + on the handicap ? Cracking call on the Toulouse/ Treviso game.

[DAC]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Nobber, Yes, the cap was +1 to Leicester yesterday. Apologies for not putting any reasoning behind the Treviso bet, I was in a bit of a rush. Treviso have beaten most handicaps this season and are vastly underated, people forget it's basically half the Italian team plus a couple of good imports.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Well done Steve & DAC on some great spots last weekend, both very close to Leicester wins. Only game I got to see was the Racing Metro Saracens game, good one to watch. Couple of good looking ties this weekend with plenty of teams in a mad dash for the runners up spots. Can't wait for that Leicester Toulouse clash and hoping for a home victory for my outrights at the beginning. Nice payoffs from the two group winners. Great quality in the thread gents, long may it continue :clap

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Squeaky bum time and the bookies have put the lines close to where I’d expect them for most games. So not a lot of value around but I am having a punt on couple anyway. Leicester Toulouse The one to watch. Leicester missed out on qualification the last three times and this is their big chance to atone. Looking at the Ospreys game, they did leave a lot on the table and despite Ospreys strength at home, it should have been a win. They’ve been very strong at home themselves this year: losing only one to Harlequins and beating fairly strong opposition (apart from Treviso). They’re slightly stronger in the 2^nd half and manage an average margin of -7 or so (I exclude the Anglo Welsh cup from my stats). Full deck to choose from here with minimal disruption to the team (Waldrom in at 8 for Crane). Toulouse select a beefy pack for this one with Noves eschewing guile for grunt. They’ve got a stellar record in this competition and are statistically strong away this season with 50% win rate. That ain’t the whole story though: the losses were against Ospreys in Europe, and four away losses to Perpignan, Biarritz, Stade Francais & Grenoble shows the opposition haven’t been of the highest quality. Their most impressive win was a 2 pt away victory (their most recent) against a distracted Castres. Toulon, Clermont and perhaps Montpellier are the new behemoths of the Top 14 and I think this is a bridge too far for Toulouse (as it is for most: Leicester haven’t lost at home in Pool stage since a 19-21 loss to Munster in 2006). I think the Tigers will manage it this time. Leicester 1-12 @ 2.37 Treviso Ospreys & Cardiff Sale I agree with DAC that people underestimate Treviso regularly. I think it’s the case again here with a +5 handicap on them in another dead rubber. The Italians managed a very lucky 12-6 win in this fixture at the beginning of the Rabo season and while they haven’t bagged many home wins since, the opposition has been strong. They’ve beaten this handicap in 7/9 games and play a fairly strong side. Ospreys early season wobble was rectified too late to make progress in Europe. Their away record is iffy with three wins (against Zebre, Scarlets and Dragons) and four defeats. They done well in Toulouse to stay in the game for a long time and I think they’ll get better as the season progresses. However their missing a fair few and like the other regions, some national players will be benched or taking it easy enough for this fixture. It will be a close game but if Ospreys do win it won’t be by much. Cardiff are a bad side to bet on. High-scoring away maulings and tight wins against poorer teams along with a slim squad make games involving them hard to predict. They showed a bit of pride last week and didn’t do badly to keep within the +23. They do have some excellent backs and they can score plenty if the mood strikes. No hiding from their awful record at Arms Park (2 wins from 9) but they’ve got some quality there and I think they’re better than Sale and will avoid the wooden spoon. They'll be keen to atone for the opening loss against the Sharks after throwing away a 12 pt lead at half time. Sale are atrocious away from home with no wins and no consistency. They’ve kept within +10 only twice in their 9 matches and I wouldn’t trust them to perform any better here. Only one change with Cipriani benched for this encounter before a week’s break followed by a return to their relegation battle. Can’t see them up for this one at all and have lost 3/5 head to head against the Blues; both Sale's wins by a point at home. Looking at the alt handicap for both those games I’m going for: Treviso +11 & Cardiff -5 @ 1.9

[Nobber]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Scarlets v Clermont. Just idly looking at the Betfair odds on the weekend games and came across this: Scarlets - 8.5 points at 2.66 They are playing Clermont Auvergne, one of the favourites to lift the Cup and who will need to win today to bag a home Quarter Final place. Now I like the Scarlets, but there is no way in my opinion they can give any, leave alone 8.5 points start to Clermont. I think this bet is a 'steal' (literally) and will be having a decent bet. Not !!! Good luck. Nobber.

[Nobber]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Can't believe that someone actually took the above bet for £30 - why oh why didn't I offer 2.8 or even 3.0:wall What a steal !!! Clermont are 24-0 up at half time and more to come by the look of it. Nobber.

[Nobber]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Very, very, well done Spankyf. Tremendous weekend results, you were absolutely spot-on with all three bets. I do hope you followed your own reasoning with hard cash and are now a lot richer than you were Friday afternoon. Good luck. Nobber.

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Great tips Spanky yet again with sound reasoning:ok

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Thanks Nobber & Steve. Long way to go before I can become rich from this but glad just to be profitable this season. If it finishes that way i'll indulge and let the 'nana sneak into a post :)

[Marazan]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup I managed to get money on Saracens in the QFs at -4 and I notice they've gone to -5. I have a feeling that another poor performance by Ulster could see Saracens move to -6 before the game kicks off.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Clermont Montpellier I'm all over Clermont here. Everybody and his dog knows they are due a Heineken Cup win and they underlined that ambition against Leinster this year (albeit when Leinster had a lot of injuries). Whats really remarkable is their amazing home run. Not only is it 50+ wins on the trot in the league but missing a handful of world class players to the 6N they still won away matches against good sides and have only lost 6/28 all season (all away in the Top 14 where home teams have a 70%+ win rate). People point to Montpellier's big win against Toulon to guarantee their top 8 route to the QF's but Toulon had already qualified handsomely and didn't have the impetus the home team had. They're fifth in the league but they'll be lucky to get in to the Hein next season with form like the Toulon reversal a few rounds ago and a home loss to Racing Metro since with a full team. No lineups yet but they lost their scrum half Tomas v Montois last weekend and just don't have anything like the bench Clermont do. The stats show they've already lost to Clermont 36 - 14 away this season and Montpellier's Top14 away cap is about +8, Clermonts' home average -22. In the Heineken Cup that changes to -4 and -26 respectively so i'm more than happy to take the home cap widely available and will be using the 1.22 HW odds liberally in accumulators. Clermont -9 @ 10/11

[Nobber]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Was thinking that Clermont would be too good for Montpellier but was not aware of the stats. you quote. Many thanks for this, it's confirmed my belief that Clermont look a good bet. Nobber.

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup -9 looks good but what about this guy Ludovic Radoslavjevic playing at 10. I've seen him play at scrum half obv but seems very risky at this stage, why not play Skrela or Parra at 10?

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup The coaches have a lot of faith in his distribution and he's got an

Parra will be taking all the kicks. 25 games last year and been with them since underage levels. James is injured so looks like they're taking a gamble on youth over experience but i'm sure Skrela will come on to steady the ship if he's overawed, but he shouldn't be. He came on for James at 10 in that 36 - 18 home win in January (got the scoreline wrong above). Good luck though, QF's are usually tight affairs so it is a little risky. I just think Clermont's strength and form is formidable.

[SteveO]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Saracens v Ulster This should be a very competitive game where any conceeded penalties will be severely punished by Farrell, Jackson or Pienaar. Ulster really struggled at times last weekend against the Leinster pack and gave away a decent amount of penalties. The Saracens pack can be just as formidable and I feel that it is in this area where the game will be lost or won. Saracens are -4 favourites for this match and on current form I just can't see Saracens losing and I feel that they are good value to eclispe that margin. Having watched them all season I've been extremely impressed by just how ruthless they can be and play the game in the right areas of the pitch minimizing errors. They have a watertight defence and In Owen Farrell they have one of Europe's finest 10's and I take him to kick Saracens to a decent victory. Recommended Bet: Saracens -4 to beat Ulster at Evens with PaddyPower Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/heineken-cup-saracens-v-ulster-betting-saracens-too-strong-for-ulster-come-scrum-time-20130405

[Nobber]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Very well done lads, the analysis was spot-on in both games and a profitable day despite the Grand National. Hope you filled your boots and good on the two of you. Nobber.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2012/13 Heineken Cup Well boys, squeaky bum time and I am just going to enjoy it tomorrow. I do feel Clermont are the strongest team and drew at Toulon with not-their-first-XV recently but it's a cup final tomorrow and I can't pick a winner. Head says Clermont but without conviction. Just hoping for a great occasion. What do you guys think?