Spankyf

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Glasgow Zebre Glasgow need just the win realistically to get a home semi final as even if Munster get the 5 points at home to Ulster, they will stay behind Glasgow as Townsends men would rack up their 18th win. Unlike Ulster, Zebre have plenty to fight for on their trip. A better result than Treviso will give them the entry to the European cup next year. Glasgow have a new combo at centre in this one with Dunbar returning and have 6 changes in the pack, with a first start for Nakawara. Zebre miss Leonard but the new scrum half Palazzani was the match winner last week in the dramatic win at home to Ospreys so he should be up for this. Otherwise good continuity from last week and no reason not to go out all guns blazing. Glasgow have not covered this handicap all season at home and just the once away – at Treviso last game. They are close to the top of the league due to their defence and not their scoring, which is the lowest average for all teams at home in the league. Zebre have fallen to this handicap 30% of games away (Dragons, Munster & Leinster) and once at home to Munster. Glasgow are undoubtedly the better team but I think this is another case of Zebre being underrated with the bookmakers having covered 70% of away caps in the Pro 12. Happy to back them here given their current form and the fact they only lost by 3 in this fixture last season. When the market appears I will also back 'Glasgow to win both halves - No'. Zebre +20.5 @ 1.91

Re: 2013/14 RaboDirect Pro 12 Can't access the odds-comparison website so here's the odds in another format. All games at 13:30 GMT Saturday. Handicaps quoted generally available at 1.91 [TABLE] [TR] [TD]Home [/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]HW[/TD] [TD]AW[/TD] [TD]Home Cap[/TD] [TD]Away Cap[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]1.01[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]-23.5[/TD] [TD]23.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]1.03[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]-21.5[/TD] [TD]21.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]1.062[/TD] [TD]8.5[/TD] [TD]-16.5[/TD] [TD]16.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]1.36[/TD] [TD]3.2[/TD] [TD]-6.5[/TD] [TD]6.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]1.36[/TD] [TD]3.2[/TD] [TD]-6.5[/TD] [TD]6.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]Zebre[/TD] [TD]1.03[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]-21.5[/TD] [TD]21.5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

Re: 2014 Super XV Bulls Stormers Taking the Bulls -5.5 early doors. Bulls just about made it home against the Cheetahs last week having come back from a fair deficit to eke out the win. This is their last game before the bye and I fancy them to be well up for it after a tough 6 weeks. Stormers shipped more injuries last week in their 1 point win over the Hurricanes. Very uncommon to see them get a 4 try bonus but I don’t think they’ll manage anything like that this time. The injury list is crazy now and despite Burger’s heroics I don’t think they have the form or talent left in the squad to get anything from this game. This is a derby of course and this matchup has been tight in the past but Stormers haven’t fared well in derbies so far this year, getting smashed by Cheetahs & Lions away and they haven’t beaten any away handicap in SA derbies since 2012. Bulls have all the motivation they need to do well here and I don’t see the Stormers offering much resistance. Bulls -5.5 @ 1.91 Not a lot else out this week to tempt but would have taken the Chiefs if the line was around -6.5 (now -8 in two way betting) and I feel the Rebels aren’t a bad shout at +2.5.

Re: 2014 Super XV [TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 9 May 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Chiefs v Blues (08:35 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 32 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.55 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.72 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Melbourne Rebels v Hurricanes (10:40 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.37 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 28 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.75 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.82 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 10 May 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Highlanders v Lions (09:35 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.22 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 30 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.25 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.35 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Brumbies v Sharks (11:40 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.59 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 27 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.06 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Central Cheetahs v Western Force (16:05 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.69 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 26 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.68 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Bulls v Stormers (19:10 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 26 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.1 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.77 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 11 May 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Queensland Reds v Crusaders (07:05 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 26 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.41 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.34 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

Re: 2013/14 Aviva Premiership Sale Leicester That Sale have gone from being basement dwellers to potential playoff side in a year may seem amazing but maybe it was just they needed a year for Steve Diamond to establish how he wanted them to play (they finished 6th in 2011/12). Their defence has been excellent all season and Cip’s is on the back pages for the right reasons. Working with Steve Black has clearly had all the intended effects. Leicester are coming good at the right time with Williams keeping them safe in the knowledge Toby won’t be missed. Tuilagi, Parling and Tait coming back for the run in is a huge bonus and they could be a good shout for a late title challenge. Looking at the previous head to heads, Leicester have won the last 7 and do have the experience at the business end of the season Sale will be lacking now. Having said that I don’t think Sale will be blown out here with the performances they’ve been putting in. Do think there is value in them getting a losing bonus point out of this game minimum. Would have looked at the Leicester 1-12 but not happy with the odds available (best of 2.62). Sale +6.5 @ 1.90

Re: 2013/14 Aviva Premiership Gloucester London Irish I think Gloucester are well overrated here. With everyone having had a week’s break there’s no reason to think there will be blowouts by teams who’ve had no precedent of doing so. Gloucester have beaten only 3/10 handicaps at home in the Aviva and haven’t been impressive with their much vaunted back division no great shakes when it comes to conceding tries. London Irish are an iffy team to be betting on with a lot of inconsistency on the road (beating Saracens away but losing by 13+ margins to Bath, Quins, Noton and Exeter). With no pressure on either side I think the Exiles will come out to play and with Gloucester not having beaten the 10.5 all season I think it’s worth a small play. London Irish +10.5 @ 1.90

Re: 2013/14 Aviva Premiership [TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 3 May 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Gloucester v London Irish (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.28 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 34 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.55 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.70 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] London Wasps v Newcastle Falcons (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.11 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 41 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.7 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.84 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Saracens v Worcester Warriors (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.02 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 67 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.88 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Sale Sharks v Leicester Tigers (15:15 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.05 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 26 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.47 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 4 May 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Exeter Chiefs v Harlequins (14:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.47 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.71 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

Re: 2014 Super XV Chiefs Lions Lions with 16.5 headstart is a good bet in my opinion. Chiefs have had a tough schedule, just got beat by Brumbies heavily, are missing their main playmaker and in poor enough form. Great record vs SA sides but Lions fresh off bye and should be more of a challenge than the bookies are giving them. I do have some concerns with Jantjies at fly half but rest of their team has played together most of the games. They’ve had a week to prepare and while normally I’d be giving the Chiefs the respect they deserve and staying away, they’ve changed 14/23 and 9 starters which can’t be good for continuity. Home handicaps are the way to go betting-wise this season but there’s too much of a discount on the Lions for me to pass up here. Here’s hoping for another 72-65 like in 2010. Lions +16.5 @ 1.9

Re: 2014 Super XV Blues Waratahs Blues have a lot of ground to make up to challenge for a finals place and on paper there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be there. Not sure about the management of the squad in the last while with the Benchy sideshow and lack of clarity on the playmaking responsibilities. Hickey doesn’t look too bad a player though and with Nonu outside him for this game they can put up a fair score on the boards. Tah’s looking great in Sydney but apart from the result at Stormers they’ve been lackluster away from home. They’ve got a great set piece and might have the edge in the pack for this one but I do think Blues are due a big performance and after a week’s rest they’ll deliver. +1.5 for any intra-conference game is a big number unless you’re the Lions, Cheetahs, Rebels etc., especially with the crazy amount of home wins this year. Don’t think the Blues are that bad and will take the home win here. Blues win @ 2.1

Re: 2014 Super XV Brumbies Chiefs I had a pre season punt on the Waratahs to win the Australian conference because I thought the coaching of the Brumbies would suffer. Not so and they are the dark horses for the title I reckon. They’re playing smart rugby and have a very settled squad that was only 40 mins from being champions last year. Chiefs are losing a bit of their aura recently. I thought they did well to come back in those two draws but they were missed opportunities in hindsight and they have a really tough schedule. After the home loss to the Crusaders they go to Canberra now with a lot of air miles and missing the superb Cruden. Do think they have the talent to fill that spot but don’t think they’ll keep it as close as bookies suggest with Brumbies form and their motivation for this one. Brumbies -3 @ 1.91

Re: Spankys Punts Punts for the weekend: Friday: Super XV Highlanders 1-12 @ 2.75 Reds 1-12 @ 2.88 Aviva Sale 1-12 @ 2.6 Rabo Connacht +12.5 @ 1.91 Saturday: Top 14 Brive +19 @ 1.91 Biarritz +22 @ 1.91

Re: 2014 Super XV Cheers Aidy Wishful thinking for that Tahs +6, still might fancy them for the straight win. I'll probably look at the Hurricanes (expect about-5), maybe Lions + probably around +3.5. Will post again later in the week.

Re: Spankys Punts -1.27 units this week. 130 bets -4.18% yield -5.48 units

Re: 2014 Super XV Surprised Waratahs got beat so heavily, well done on the tip Josh. Will be interesting to see the early market prices for Lions - Crusaders and Stormers - Tahs games. Would be looking to back Tah's early if it's +6.5 or so.

Re: Spankys Punts Saturday: Top 14 Oyonnax v Grenoble Grenoble +8.5 @ 1.91 Rabo Leinster v Munster Munster +6.5 @ 1.91 Aviva Harlequins v London Irish London Irish +13.5 @ 1.91 Super XV Bulls v Chiefs Bulls win by 1-12 @ 2.75 Sunday: Rabo Scarlets v Connacht Connacht +10.5 @ 1.91