Martin Posted February 10, 2005 Share Posted February 10, 2005 Going to use this to hone my selection process which probably isnt too hot but will hopefully improve over the coming weeks. I will be choosing one horse per day from one of the higher classed races, but no money will be placed, but for sake of keeping a record, bets are 10pts each. Thursday 10th February 3.30 Wincanton Selection here is Kew Jumper who gets the nod, all be it a narrow one, over Osiris. Jockey Graham Lee seems to do well on this horse and rode it to victory on its one and only outing over this trip of 2m5f. Of the four chases he has run, he has one won, finished second in two while the other, a seventh place, can be explained by firm ground, a heavy weight and possibly too little rest after his previous outing which was won. The horse is also travelling over 200 miles with Lee's three rides this afternoon being for trainer Andrew Turnell. This race does represent a step up in class but with Lee on board, a distance which seems to suit and some give in the ground, this one could run a good race. Odds 7/2 10 pts stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 10, 2005 Author Share Posted February 10, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! No prizes for guessing who won! Kew Jumper was never really in it. -10pts Total: -10pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 11, 2005 Author Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Friday 11th February 3.45 Kempton Selection today is :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=457547',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Banker Count who gets the nod over the favourite Brown Teddy due to Graham Lee's injury. This was set to be his, and trainer R Ford's only booking today which seemed significant but Lee will now not ride. Banker Count is going for a hat-trick of wins having won at Towchester and Leicester over similar distances. Naturally he is up in the weights which is bound to reduce his chances but he is still at a winable mark having not won since 2001 before his recent wins. He was rated at 140 that day and his OR of 127 should still be low enough to do the business. He has won three grade B races in the past and so the step up in class from LTO should be no problem. Indeed one of those races was over the same trip with identical conditions underfoot. If any rain should fall, this should only enhance his chances as he has shown his credentials on the softer ground previously. Odds: 8/1 (totalbet) 10 pts stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 11, 2005 Author Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Drifted all day to 10/1 but apart from a wee bit when the favourite threatened, he led from the front. :clap Daily Profit: + 80 pts Total Proft: + 70 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Im offering bankers Posted February 11, 2005 Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Goos shout martin, pitty I read this too late to get on it, anyway great tipping mate:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 11, 2005 Author Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Thanks :) I wouldnt recommend backing these with money at the moment as I am really just starting out and was worried when the price drifted but at the same time thought he would do well enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted February 11, 2005 Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Cheers for the tip Martin, I'm new to this site and fished around for a couple of horses to go with my own selection (which lost) in a patent, tho' with 1 to run I'm guaranteed to be in profit for the day.:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 11, 2005 Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! :clap good spot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoneedsrio Posted February 11, 2005 Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Nice one Martin, a well thought out selection using some of the things discussed in your Q & A Thread. I note you have asked some more questions in that thread with no reply yet perhaps this may prompt a few responses. Don't worry if something you back drifts a little, it's only when they go for a real walk in the market that the alarm bells ring. If you were happy to back the horse at 8/1 then a small top up on the bet, say 10% to 20% of the original stake at the 10's may be in order, it's all a matter of feel, does it look right, are you in form, etc? Good stuff, Rio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 11, 2005 Author Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Thanks people :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 12, 2005 Author Share Posted February 12, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Saturday 12th February 4.10 Newbury I've by-passed the bigger races as they all seem to be small fields with a strong favourite or a huge field with a lot of potential winners. In my opinion, this race will be won by either Over The Creek, He's The Guv'nor or Moscow Whisper and I'll be going against the favourite again with Moscow Whisper. The Murphy/Pipe combination is naturally a big factor in any race but Over The Creek is untested at this distance and had a disaster of a ride LTO, albeit without Murphy riding. It was tough to split the other two but Moscow Whisper gets the nod based on his better form over this, and similar, distances. He has improved in each of his last three races culminating in a second place over course and distance in January. That race was won by Celtic Son who won comfortably yesterday and so he did well enough in finishing second even if the rest of the field wasnt of great quality. Richard Johnson is booked for todays ride having missed the last three rides on the horse. Previously, he wasn't out of the top three, including winning two on the trot and so he clearly gets on well with the horse. Naturally, the horse is up in the weights since then but he should be able to handle the rise. He's The Guv'nor however may find a third win on the trot too much to ask. In conclusion, the horse handles both track and distance while conditions underfoot will suit whether its Good or Good/Soft by the off. The other two main contenders are unproven over the distance but I expect them all to be there or there abouts come the line with Moscow Whisper edging them both out. Odds: 11/2 (bet365) 10 pts stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 12, 2005 Author Share Posted February 12, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Very disappointed with this, didnt see the race but it seemed to be in contention before fading out, had been backed into favourite. Daily profit: -10pts Total profit: +60pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 13, 2005 Author Share Posted February 13, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Sunday 13th February 2.10 Exeter Selection here is Le Jaguar who is looking to notch up his first win in over a year. In that time he finished second to strong favourite and promising horse My Will and beat Liverpool Echo to the line in the same race, a horse who won a few days ago. He then went on to finish behind Le Passing and Captain Correlli who have both won since. That race was run over heavy conditions and although this race wont be quite to testing in that regard, he showed he was capable of handling the ground and so this longer distance over firmer ground is manageable. This is further enhanced by his second last run when it looked as though he needed further than the 2m5f that day and this is provided with the 3 miles plus today. Last time out, he was tounge tied for the first time, and this I believe is a positive sign, and he continues with it today. That day he was beaten near the line by Ile De Pari who isnt a bad sort. This could be Le Jaguar's last chance to finally claim a victory but with the ground set to suit and the general consensu being that the trip is possibly the one he needs, he may well be the one to beat today. Of his rivals, Brave Spirit is the obvious danger and possible favourite but he may find this race one too far after winning three on the trot and he has gone up 40lbs since his winning run began. Odds: 11/4 (paddypower) 10 pts stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 14, 2005 Author Share Posted February 14, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Another disappointing run :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 14, 2005 Author Share Posted February 14, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Monday 14th February 2.30 Plumpton Boring selection in that I've sided with the favourite Cabelle who has won over course and distance previously. In a race which seems fairly open, Carbelle looks to be running off a favourable mark of 77 which is a fair bit lower than the 101 she last won off. After an injury in 2003, she returned this year to run two races, finishing a creditable fourth on each occasion and this step up to a favourable 2 miles should see her go better and take the honours. She has shown her ability to cope with a variety of conditions, winning on good to firm ground as well as todays soft and so this shouldnt bother her at all. The drop in class to F could also be significant as she has previously been running at higher classes and she could be too good for the rest of the field today. Odds: 9/4 (paddypower) 10 pts stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted February 14, 2005 Share Posted February 14, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Winner @ 9/4. Get in their you wee beauty!:notworthy Good work fella :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 14, 2005 Author Share Posted February 14, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Thanks, about time one came in! Total staked: 50 pts Total returned: 122.5 pts Yield: 145% Winners: 2 Losers: 3 Strike Rate: 40% Current Bank: 172.5 pts Profit/Loss: +72.5 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 14, 2005 Author Share Posted February 14, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! So thats 2/5 and a 40% strike rate which I'm pretty happy with especially considering the profit I would be in had I had money on the selections. Haven't been too far away with the other three. My aim is to improve the selection process until the flat season starts and see if I can maintain profit. Thanks for reading :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 14, 2005 Author Share Posted February 14, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Tuesday 15th February 2.10 Newcastle Selection today is Red Rampage who is one of the favourites for the race and quite rightly so in my opinion. His last run was 114 days ago but only two other horses in the race have run since and so this shouldnt be a problem. The only weak link was this race over 3m1f on soft ground when he tired and refused to jump three from the end. However, he had failed to finish outside the top three on each of his previous six races and undoubtedly has ability. Importantly, he has won over course and distance and with conditions likely to be testing, he has proven himself over further distances than the 3m he will face today which will stand him in good stead. The other major positive is that this race represents a step down in class with most of this previous races being at Class D or E while this is rated as H. In his last race he won for example, he beat Lord Capitaine who has since gone on to win twice in races of better quality than this. Although I am unsure just how important it is, trainer HP Hogarth has a 66% strike rate at Newcaslte, winning 4 out of his 6 races there but even although six races isnt a huge number, its a statistic which can only had weight to his horses claims. Furthermore, Red Rampage has not been punished much for his last win and looks perfectly able to win off 103. His biggest rival is likely to be Butterwick Kid who has also won over course and distance and likes the ground. Red Rampage however is likely to suit the heavy ground a little better and gets the nod but both are likely to be there or there abouts. Odds: 4/1 (sportingodds) 10 pts stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 15, 2005 Author Share Posted February 15, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! That was some race! Butterwick Kid disqualified for going the wrong way having won the race so Red Rampage takes it! Todays Profit: 40 pts Total Profit: 112.5 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 16, 2005 Author Share Posted February 16, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Wednesday 16th February 4.00 Musselburgh Selection today is Far Pavillions who returns to the jumps after a break of 651 days, although he had a stint at the flat three weeks ago which wasnt successful. His last race over the jumps saw him win a good quality race over todays distance beating the likes of Sun Bird who has gone on to win on three ocassions since. Before that, he was a winner of another class B race over 2m, beating Crystal D'Ainay, another who has gone on to better things including a second to Baracuda in a grade A race. That race was his fourth victory on the trot and represented a step up in class from D to B but this was to prove no hindrence. He has raced at Musselburgh on two occassions, winning on both albeit over 2m but he has proven himself over todays distance elsewhere. His mark today of 120 is less than it was for his previous three victories and so this can only be a good thing. Todays jockey is given his fifth ride on the horse and currently boasts a 100% record and so he clearly knows how to handle the horse. He also has a 21% strike rate with the trainer which only adds weight to the selections claims. Both trainer and jockey have a 20%+ success rates at the course and so even the statistics are in his favour. Main dangers are likely to be Aleron and Alrafid but neither have the wealth of experience the selection does and this drop in class along with his clear ability over course and distance should be enough to see him through. Odds: 6/1 (sportingodds) 10 pts stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 16, 2005 Author Share Posted February 16, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Excellent price for a horse with obvious ability. Todays Profit: 60 pts Total Profit: 172.5 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
achilles Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Martin, Well done, I had already decided to back it but your excellent write-up just confirmed it! Cheers. :clap :clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazabroad Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! I don´t usually back horses as football is my thing, but read your comments this morning and decided to have €10 e/w. Glad I did, thanx:clap :clap :clap Hope you carry on with this good fortune, You obviously have some good sound knowledge and reasoning :ok :ok :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! fair play :clap quality tipping. Difficult race to win but won maybe with a bit in hand also. Will now go to Cheltenham for the County? I posted my own views on the 4.00 race & tipped up Rayshan ew at 20/1, ran reasonably well but perhaps is weighted to the hilt at the moment & trainer is bringing the handicap mark down for later !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 16, 2005 Author Share Posted February 16, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Thanks :) I'd certainly look at it next time out, might still be able to manage another win depending on conditions, looks a classy horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 17, 2005 Author Share Posted February 17, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Thursday 17th February 4.50 Sandown This appears to be a fairly weak race with few of the runners having performed over the distance which leads to my possibly speculative selection of Mnason. Getting his most likely opponent and favourite out of the way, Nick The Silver has shown quality previously but under testing conditions, he may not last the pace and I'd rather look elsewhere than go safe with the favourite. Having said that, Mnason has never been tested over todays 2m 4.5f distance but at least gave the impression that he would stay when a winner last time out over 2m on soft ground. He simply outstayed the opposition that day and with conditions slightly better today, he should again be able to last the full distance. He has only run five times in this country having coming over from France and he has shown some good form intertwined with some not so good form, but his last run was encouraging and he should be able to carry that into todays race. His other good run was a second place behind 15/8 favourite Ferimon who is a decent if unspectacular horse. This allowed him to step up to race in Handicap level and he duly won at his first attempt. I don't have a huge amount of confidence in the selection today but in a race which in theory could be one by a number of horses, this certainly looks like a good each way shout if nothing else. Odds: 8/1 (betdirect) 10 pts stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 17, 2005 Author Share Posted February 17, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Awful selection today, must apologise. Todays Profit: -10pts Total Profit: 162.5 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 17, 2005 Author Share Posted February 17, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Friday 18th September 3.10 Sandown Selection for this race is the Martin Pipe trained Figaro Du Rocher who is looking for his third win in four and third for jockey Timmy Murphy. He gets the nod over Jericho III who is looking for a fourth win on the bounce as he may well find the penalty incurred for his latest win too to be one step too far. Figaro Du Rocher however has already raced since his two victories and although he failed to complete the hat-trick, he was not disgraced in defeat to Chef Tartare who is a decent sort. Figaro Du Rocher should come on for that race and with the return of Murphy to the saddle, should take all the beating. Previously, Figaro Du Rocher has won on four ocassions, over the 16/17F distance on good and good/soft ground, exactly as he will find today. His last victory saw him defeat Nagano who was going for three in a row that day and this highlights the horses ability. Back racing again after racing less than two weeks ago, Figaro Du Rocher seems to run better when turned out quickly, frequently placing well when racing soon after his previous efforts. In conclusion, the return of Timmy Murphy coupled with the horses previously good form should be enough to see this one through in a race where conditions are set to suit. Odds: 4/1 (totalbet) 10 pts stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 25, 2005 Author Share Posted February 25, 2005 Re: A bet a day helps you work, rest and play! Friday 25th February 2.35 Warwick With some decent racing taking place today, its time to start winning again and todays vote goes to Merchants Friend. Getting the concerns out of the way, he has pulled up in two of his last four races and finished well out of the running in another. Clearly doesnt sound like a horse on form but his other run in that four was a win over favourite Tipsy Mouse over todays distance. This is important as it was the only one of the four races which was run over very soft ground (heavy in this case) which he clearly favours and given this fact, he can be forgiven for failing to handle the good ground. His eight career wins have come over good to soft ground or worse and this includes a win in a Class B race over favourite Roberty Rob. He has gradually been stepped up in distance and won over this distance at the first attempt and so stamina will be no problem today. Other notable races he has run was the Hennessy Gold Cup and despite the fact he finished ten lengths behind winner Strong Flow, nothing was expected of him and he did beat several horses who have won since. That was a top class race and so his credentials are clear to see. His mark of 135 is as high as he has ever raced off but bearing in mind he has been running in better quality races that this, he looks capable of adding to his wins so far. Obvious danger is Auburn Spirit, the forecast favourite, for whom a case can easily be made but this race represents a step up in class from his previous outings and Merchants Friend's superior experience can see him return to the winners enclosure. Odds: 11/4 (ladbrokes) 10 pts stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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