Aidymac Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Hi guys. My only real antepost betting comes in the golf markets. It has been a success for me this year, having had all 3 winners in the 3 majors so far. But now after the USPGA, no more majors until the US Masters next year. But i still want to continue betting antepost. So i am thinking about investing in the horse racing antepost market until January or February, every week until then, mainly for Cheltenham next year. I don't miss the money going every week, it is only 20-50 per week that i have spare, and I am thinking about investing it into JP Mcmanus owned runners, and Nicky Henderson trained runners for the Cheltenham festival. Do ye think this is a wise move? When looking at antepost markets, what do ye look for? I don't have the time to study form for hours, it just is not my cup of tea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Re: Investing small amounts of money weekly for the antepost market. Serious reply, honest - but would you not be better sticking to what you know, or know best anyway? So put that €20 a week or whatever aside until next year's Golf majors, where you have proven your ability at making a success of it? You've said studying the horse form for hours isn't your cup of tea, so don't try and half-cook a job that you don't enjoy in the first place. Stick to what you do enjoy and what you're good at imo :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Re: Investing small amounts of money weekly for the antepost market. Serious reply, honest - but would you not be better sticking to what you know, or know best anyway? So put that €20 a week or whatever aside until next year's Golf majors, where you have proven your ability at making a success of it? You've said studying the horse form for hours isn't your cup of tea, so don't try and half-cook a job that you don't enjoy in the first place. Stick to what you do enjoy and what you're good at imo :ok I really enjoy horse racing Samba. And i love Cheltenham. It would be great just to sit back and relax, have no bets whilst the festival is on, and enjoy seeing how your antepost bets fare out. You are right though, it is a big risk, as i don't really know how the horse racing antepost markets work, and of course, loss of money if your horse does not run in that race, antepost in golf is safer as normally your certain for your golfer to take part. I think i will give the horse racing 1 attempt, and if it doesn't work out for me, i won't go back there again. As you correctly say, stick to what you know. Thanks for the response. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Re: Investing small amounts of money weekly for the antepost market. I'm just biased really, as I have completely lost the interest in the horses - plus I've enjoyed watching your stable of golfers come up with the goods every time in the majors. Sure there's enough knowledgeable folk in here who can guide you in the right direction regarding what to look for, and everything is worth trying once (well... maybe not eveything :loon) Just make sure there's a thread we can follow and cheer them on come March :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Re: Investing small amounts of money weekly for the antepost market. I'm just biased really, as I have completely lost the interest in the horses - plus I've enjoyed watching your stable of golfers come up with the goods every time in the majors. Sure there's enough knowledgeable folk in here who can guide you in the right direction regarding what to look for, and everything is worth trying once (well... maybe not eveything :loon) Just make sure there's a thread we can follow and cheer them on come March :cheers I might set up a thread in the systems part of the forum. I just notice the past couple of years as to how many big races McManus and Henderson clean up on, and a lot of horses at big prices too. Bob Lingo was another McManus winner last week in the big race in Ireland @ 16/1. He had Synchronised in the Gold Cup, but that could have been backed at very big prices antepost? Henderson is always bound to have a few winners, with the talented fleet of horses he has now. As you say, it would make it something to look forward to it March, as i tend to go haywire, take out a grand and blow it on Day 1 usually. :$ This way i won't miss the money, and if i hit just 1 winner it could make my festival. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Re: Investing small amounts of money weekly for the antepost market. The problem with the festival is that these type of handicap horses tend to be entered into several of races, and while its possible to follow them in each and still get a return if it comes in, you can also end up with a lot of wasted money. I have back horses AP for Cheltenham fairly successfully for the past couple of years but mainly in the big races by backing and laying. You can make more money in the handicaps but they are a damn sight harder to work out IMO. Good luck if you do it though and I will certainly be keeping my eye out for what you pick :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Re: Investing small amounts of money weekly for the antepost market. The problem with the festival is that these type of handicap horses tend to be entered into several of races, and while its possible to follow them in each and still get a return if it comes in, you can also end up with a lot of wasted money. I have back horses AP for Cheltenham fairly successfully for the past couple of years but mainly in the big races by backing and laying. You can make more money in the handicaps but they are a damn sight harder to work out IMO. Good luck if you do it though and I will certainly be keeping my eye out for what you pick :p I know what your saying. Could it be better to pick something like Sprinter Sacre, a horse with 1 race in target, and just keep backing it? The last thing i want is to keep backing a horse that could end up a N/R! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Re: Investing small amounts of money weekly for the antepost market. Re: Sprinter Sacre - his top price now, beginning of August the year prior, is 5/4! You need to factor in a percentage chance of him missing the Festival into that price (my friend who bets Ante Post says to take 20% from the price to account for chance of not making it), so all of a sudden the 1.25/1 becomes 1/1 and you're looking at having money tied up in an 'Evens' shot for the next 7 months. I'm sure you'll be able to find several good value 5/4 shots in some sports or another over the next 7 months, that you could put your funds to use with. I realise I sound like a complete anti-antepost person in this thread lol, I'm not, just trying to voice the reason for the other side of the coin :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Re: Investing small amounts of money weekly for the antepost market. I will try and put part of any winnings into ante post bets and at any one time throughout the year I will have between £100 and £200 invested in ante post bets. I never put huge bets on but I feel smaller bets (£5 to £20) at a decent price are worth having and can be profitable but Cheltenham is one of the hardest to get right and my ante post Cheltenham bets are often placed somewhere around December/January and January/February for Grand National. It's swings and roundabouts with them, I have 3 backed for the Arc - Nathaniel, Imperial Monarch and Saint Baudolino. The Nathaniel bet looks good but I'm not sure about the other two. I realise you're quite new to them horses Aidy, the main thing you need to research is the racing calendar, what races horses are likely to go for in terms of the flat and then same for the jumps but with multiple entries as has been mentioned that is much harder for the Cheltenham Festival. I did a post here and on my blog after Cheltenham with a short analysis and some indications of what races horses might go for next season, I'll post a link on here or on your facebook wall. I've got £10 on Dawn Approach (16-1) to win the 2000 Guineas and £15 on Mars (12-1) to win the Derby but also a £10 double on Dawn Approach to win both races. They could end up injured or complete flops but that's part of the risk with ante post betting. I've got 3 Cheltenham bets on so far - Cinders and Ashes to win Champion Hurdle £10 at 18.0, Pearl Swan to win Champion Hurdle £5 at 60.0, Flemenstar to win Champion Chase £5 at 25.0. They could turn out to be awful bets but we'll see come March. I don't mind tying up a small percentage of my cash but don't want to overdo it and I couldn't stand having large win bets and then not see them even make it to the races I've backed them in. In the flat season there are so many 2 year old races like the Dewhurst that often throw up winners of the Guineas or the RP Trophy at Donny and then there are Derby trials etc. Most felt Frankel would be tried over 10f and one of the obvious races would be the Juddmonte which it now looks like it will go for. It might be worth making a note of races that often go together like RP Trophy as 2 yr old > 3 yr old classic season - Dante > Derby > Arc De Triomphe that kind of thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Re: Investing small amounts of money weekly for the antepost market. I think ante-post punting is ok for a bit of fun and to small stakes but isn't something that is easy to make big profit from. Some of these horses (more so on the flat) are highly strung and tread a tighrope. There are plenty of things that can go wrong before raceday, primarily injury, but also trainers altering race plans, viruses in yards etc. At the end of the day, you can be tying up funds in races and never even getting a run for your money. Also, if you are backing more than one horse in a race, the coupled odds aren't quite as appealing as that from one of the singles. I think ante-post bets are good for the kudos and its always nice to have a high profile winner. my best winner of the festival was Synchronised at 14/1, but its easy to forget about all the money that was spunked up the wall on non-runners and freak instances like Poquelin biting his tongue and being prevented from racing by the vet, even though the trainer was adamant he was okay! So in summary, my personal view is that if your main aim is fun, then anteposts can be worthwhile but if betting seriously for investment, there are too many unknowns that can't be factored in..will they make the cut, will they be aimed at the race....will the ground come up right....will the yard be in form....will there be enough pace amongst the oppsition....will the horse get a good draw (flat) etc....from an investment point of view I'd argue that its better to wait until after the final decs, even if it means missing a few points off the price and betting the night before, at least you have more idea on the ground and opposition. there could be some mileage in trading ante-post selections but if a punter is only betting for fun then its probably better to let the bet ride anyway? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Re: Investing small amounts of money weekly for the antepost market. I do very few ante post bets these days, simply because you are not guarenteed it will make the line up. If a horse was 20/1 but it was 8 months away , i would much rather have double the stake a week / few days before the event. I don't know how long you have been punting but I'm sure you will be familiar with major results of the last few years. Look back at the 2011 , 2010 , 2009 , 2008 Cheltenham festivals and figure out if you could have predicted those results in August , October , December , Feburary. Its quite likely the closer to the event the easier it becomes. Also some races you could not have predicted on the day so they might be races you may wish to avoid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 Re: Investing small amounts of money weekly for the antepost market. Thanks very mush for the replies folks, very helpful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.