A Question of 'Value'

[The Saint]

As a punter getting 'value' over your horse racing selections is the only way to make the game pay... Unless you are a trainer or jockey and have a direct influence and inside info but that's not what I want to discuss... When I want to back a horse I have a price in mind that I think a horse should be - in a 100% book. However, if I am to back this horse, I have first considered that it has a chance of winning, I then look to achieve at least 5% above my tissue price or the price I think the horse in question should be. In the modern day betting world of prices lasting about 3 minutes and accounts being shut down at the drop of a hat if you dare to beat SP more than once, do you think this approach is too old fashioned, too conservative or not tight enough? ie - I should be looking for 10% above my tissue price (100% tissue by the way). I am certainly leaning towards 10% but this will decrease bets drastically and dictate that I would rarely back anything at 10/1 or bigger. Added to which, as I may have discussed, I cannot increase staking to a higher level - getting a bet on at the price you want would become impossible for inflated stakes for one and phchologically I am too weak to do so anyway. Becoming a 'layer' is becoming more attractive all the time.... If you can learn to lay at value prices then at least you can't get banned.... Any thoughts? :)

[BillyHills]

Re: A Question of 'Value' Saint, forgive my ignorance but i dont understand what you mean by 5% above your tissue price? is this 5 percentage points as in 5/1 is 16.67% and you would want 8/1 (11%) or Do you want 5% more of 16.67% which is about 11/2? Value is a funny thing and interpreted differently by everyone as you know but if i was making a tissue and really fancied a horse and estimated it to be a 5/1 shot and it opened up at that price then why would you not back it, unless you are betting on the exchanges with a 5% commission of course. Why the need to want another 5 or 10%. I personally wouldnt reduce your chances of a bet by increasing the percentage, i'm more the other way and would be looking to increase the amount of bets as long as your happy with your selection process. Good luck:ok