Drawsandmore Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Whoneedsrio and Foxinexile...Thank you for your continued kind words and support. Amazingly, tonights bet was a winner...felt so good typing that I'll type it again TONIGHTS BET WAS A WINNER. Sadly, one winner is not going to be enough to salvage the total disaster that was November. But onwards and upwards, here comes December, and the first two bets are tomorrow: 01/12/12 E0 Fulham v Tottenham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.47 01/12/12 E1 Millwall v Charlton (X) 4 points Marathon @ 3.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! And to finish off the week: 02/12/12 E0 Norwich v Sunderland (X) 4 points Marathon @ 3.45 02/12/12 E1 Burnley v Blackburn (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Bet 86 27/11/12 SC0 Aberdeen v Inverness C (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.52 ...2 - 3 Lost Bet 87 27/11/12 SC0 Dundee United v Motherwell (X) 4 points Marathon @ 3.50 ...1 - 2 Lost Bet 88 28/11/12 E0 Swansea v West Brom (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.64 ...3 - 1 Lost Bet 89 28/11/12 E0 Tottenham v Liverpool (X) 4 points Skybet @ 3.50 ...2 - 1 Lost Bet 90 28/11/12 SC0 St Johnstone v Hibernian (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.53 ...0 - 1 Lost Bet 91 30/11/12 F2 Arles v Le Mans (X) 4 points Bet365 @ 3.10 ...0 - 0 Won Bet 92 01/12/12 E0 Fulham v Tottenham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.47 ...0 - 3 Lost Bet 93 01/12/12 E1 Millwall v Charlton (X) 4 points Marathon @ 3.60 ...0 - 0 Won Bet 94 02/12/12 E0 Norwich v Sunderland (X) 4 points Marathon @ 3.45 ...2 - 1 Lost Bet 95 02/12/12 E1 Burnley v Blackburn (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.60 ...1 - 1 Won The losing run finally ends, and the week actually ends up being profitable (just), but by nowhere near enough to make November profitable...Just five winners from thirty three bets! Unsurprisingly the thread is in the red, but not by as much as you'd think after "Black November". The figures since the start of the season are now: 27 winners from 95 bets (28.42% strike rate) 7.16 points loss from 380 points staked (-1.88% yield) Slim pickings next week, with just four bets...Two on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Just two bets for tomorrow: 08/12/12 E0 Aston Villa v Stoke (X) 4 points Marathon @ 3.30 08/12/12 F1 Nancy v Valenciennes (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! That went well :) ...Two more bets tomorrow to end the week (more of the same please): 09/12/12 E0 Everton v Tottenham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.63 09/12/12 E0 West Ham v Liverpool (X) 4 points 5Dimes @ 3.36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Bet 96 08/12/12 E0 Aston Villa v Stoke (X) 4 points Marathon @ 3.30 ...0 - 0 Won Bet 97 08/12/12 F1 Nancy v Valenciennes (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.22 ...1 - 1 Won Bet 98 09/12/12 E0 Everton v Tottenham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.63 ...2 - 1 Lost Bet 99 09/12/12 E0 West Ham v Liverpool (X) 4 points 5Dimes @ 3.36 ...2 - 3 Lost A game of two halves! 100% winners on Saturday, followed by 100% losers on Sunday :unsure Still a profitable week is not to be sniffed at, especially when it returns the thread to profit...(Albeit a very small profit). The figures since the start of the season are now: 29 winners from 99 bets (29.29% strike rate) 2.92 points profit from 396 points staked (0.74% yield) After the relatively small number of bets last week, there are currently nine "opportunities" next week, starting with two on Wednesday. Unfortunately they are in the French first division, which has been an absolute graveyard for my system this season, (with just two winners from ten bets). And this is in a division that has had over 31.00% draws to date this season...Let's hope that those numbers can start to sort themselves out this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Two for Wednesday: 12/12/12 F1 Brest v Montpellier (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.22 12/12/12 F2 Sedan v Dijon (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.11 And one more for Thursday: 13/12/12 F1 Bordeaux v St Etienne (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.37 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! One winner, one loser, and one postponed match so far this week. One bet for tomorrow: 14/12/12 F2 Chateauroux v Clermont (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Four bets for Saturday: 15/12/12 E0 Stoke v Everton (X) 4 points Coral @ 3.30 15/12/12 E1 Birmingham v Crystal Palace (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.46 15/12/12 E1 Middlesbrough v Wolves (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.81 15/12/12 F1 Troyes v Ajaccio (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.25 The Stoke match appears to be a very popular draw selection tomorrow...Now watch it turn into a seven goal thriller!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! One final bet for what has been a pretty good week so far: 16/12/12 F2 Tottenham v Swansea (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 4.01 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claret_Sox Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Just in the black! Good Saturday for you mate, very nearly a great one! Boro winning it in the last 2 minutes and the French game came close in the end...3-0 after 90 minutes and ended 3-2!! :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoneedsrio Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Just in the black! The Stoke match appears to be a very popular draw selection tomorrow...Now watch it turn into a seven goal thriller!! :lol I see we both had that & the draw in France on Thursday night. By my reckoning that's six times our games have lined up with four of them ending in draws. I also see Machine had Stoke/Everton in his AIDE thread. Rio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Bet 100 12/12/12 F1 Brest v Montpellier (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.22 ...1 - 2 Lost Bet 101 13/12/12 F1 Bordeaux v St Etienne (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.37 ...0 - 0 Won Bet 102 14/12/12 F2 Chateauroux v Clermont (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.15 ...0 - 0 Won Bet 103 15/12/12 E0 Stoke v Everton (X) 4 points Coral @ 3.30 ...1 - 1 Won Bet 104 15/12/12 E1 Birmingham v Crystal Palace (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.46 ...2 - 2 WonBet 105 15/12/12 E1 Middlesbrough v Wolves (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.81 ...2 - 0 Lost Bet 106 15/12/12 F1 Troyes v Ajaccio (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.25 ...3 - 2 Lost Bet 107 16/12/12 F2 Tottenham v Swansea (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 4.01 ...1 - 0 Lost We lost one match to the weather, and as pointed out by Claret Sox, it could have been even better. But these things do tend to even themselves out over the season, (and I have certainly been on the right side of some last minute goals this campaign). The figures since the start of the season are now: 33 winners from 107 bets (30.84% strike rate) 24.04 points profit from 428 points staked (5.62% yield) It looks like there will be six bets in total next week, one on Friday, four on Saturday and one for Sunday...I shall be interested to see if any of them are also selections for either whoneedsrio or Machine...I may well up my own stake a little if there are any duplicates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! One for Friday: 21/12/12 F2 Clermont v Auxerre (X) 4 points Coral @ 3.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Four bets for Saturday: 22/12/12 E0 Southampton v Sunderland (X) 4 points 5Dimes @ 3.64 22/12/12 E0 West Ham v Everton (X) 4 points Stanjames @ 3.40 22/12/12 E1 Blackburn v Brighton (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.40 22/12/12 F2 Le Mans v Monaco (X) 4 points 5Dimes @ 3.16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Not really setting the world alight this week with my draw selections am I? Last bet of the week: 23/12/12 SC0 Hearts v Dundee United (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.41 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Bet 108 21/12/12 F2 Clermont v Auxerre (X) 4 points Coral @ 3.20 ...1 - 2 Lost Bet 109 22/12/12 E0 Southampton v Sunderland (X) 4 points 5Dimes @ 3.64 ...0 - 1 Lost Bet 110 22/12/12 E0 West Ham v Everton (X) 4 points Stanjames @ 3.40 ...1 - 2 Lost Bet 111 22/12/12 F2 Le Mans v Monaco (X) 4 points 5Dimes @ 3.16 ...2 - 3 Lost Bet 112 23/12/12 SC0 Hearts v Dundee United (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.41 ...2 - 1 Lost Bah Humbug! Not a very festive set of results. The figures since the start of the season are now: 33 winners from 112 bets (29.46% strike rate) 4.04 points profit from 448 points staked (0.90% yield) There are three bets on 26th and currently six bets in total next week, (although that could well change depending on the results of the Boxing day matches). Until then, Merry Christmas everybody. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Three bets for today...The Forest match kicks off at 12.15 26/12/12 E0 Stoke v Liverpool (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.30 26/12/12 E1 Nott'm Forest v Leeds (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.72 26/12/12 SC0 Kilmarnock v Hearts (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Six bets for Saturday, (my final bets of 2012)...It'd be nice if three would oblige! 29/12/12 E0 Aston Villa v Wigan (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.37 29/12/12 E0 Fulham v Swansea (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.61 29/12/12 E0 Reading v West Ham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.53 29/12/12 E1 Bolton v Birmingham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.81 29/12/12 E1 Charlton v Derby (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.50 29/12/12 SC0 Ross County v Hearts (X) 4 points Coral @ 3.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! I love what you are doing, you are on the right track. The reducing percentage stake as bank rises is correct. You WILL eventually hit 25 straight losers with this, i am certain of that. A couple of things, the leagues you are using pan out at 28/29% draws on average. You are looking for a strike rate of 33% by being selective? I dont think you will reach it but 30/31% is viable. Strike rate sorted you need best odds every time. Shop around more, particularly Thursday lunchtime as the bookies are jockeying for best price in the Post friday morning. I know you have you own ratings but what about the bookies doing the work for you. If the top ten bookies have it 7/4 home win and 7/4 the away win all you need to do is consider average goals, weather and last minute variables such as injuries and team changes. The bookies are pointing you to the well-matched teams. Finally and importantly, do you have the balls to keep going when the chips are down and the stakes are massive? Good luck pal. Still a small sample but as i pointed out hitting 33% is a very tall ask. Good luck again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Bet 113 26/12/12 E0 Stoke v Liverpool (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.30 ...3 - 1 Lost Bet 114 26/12/12 E1 Nott'm Forest v Leeds (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.72 ...4 - 2 Lost Bet 115 26/12/12 SC0 Kilmarnock v Hearts (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.42 ...1 - 0 Lost Bet 116 29/12/12 E0 Aston Villa v Wigan (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.37 ...0 - 3 Lost Bet 117 29/12/12 E0 Fulham v Swansea (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.61 ...1 - 2 Lost Bet 118 29/12/12 E0 Reading v West Ham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.53 ...1 - 0 Lost Bet 119 29/12/12 E1 Bolton v Birmingham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.81 ...3 - 1 Lost Bet 120 29/12/12 E1 Charlton v Derby (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.50 ...1 - 1 Won Disappointing to say the least! 2013...Onward and Upward :hope The figures since the start of the season are now: 34 winners from 120 bets (28.33% strike rate) 13.96 points loss from 480 points staked (-2.91% yield) There are just two bets next week, (both tomorrow). Until then, Happy New Year. :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Two bets to begin the New Year! 01/01/13 E1 Blackpool v Hull (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.61 01/01/13 E1 Sheffield Wed v Burnley (X) 4 points Marathon @ 3.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Bet 121 01/01/13 E1 Blackpool v Hull (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.61 ...0 - 0 Won Bet 122 01/01/13 E1 Sheffield Wed v Burnley (X) 4 points Marathon @ 3.50 ...0 - 2 Lost Off to a flying start in 2013! 50% winners so far...If I can just maintain that for another 360 odd days my pension plan is sorted!! lol Anyway, back to reality, the figures since the start of the season are now: 35 winners from 122 bets (28.69% strike rate) 7.52 points loss from 488 points staked (-1.54% yield) Due to the cup competitions this week, (and the French winter break), there are no further selections until Tuesday 8th January at the earliest. Let's hope that we can really kick on in the coming year...I've not given up on finishing the year in profit yet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Re: Draws for profit...Not in the black! Drawsand, I've got an impression your strategy is just another proof of the Efficiency of the Markets. Your results oscilate up and down in a narrow range with some extremes just to go back to the mean. It is completelly random if you will finish this season in Red or in Black. 122 bets is a very small sample of course, but I am very sceptical on statistic based strategies. I've run a bot on soccer collecting time,score and odds. It basically shows tha whatewer you do (back or lay) you will end up somewhere in a 5% range down or up. Apologyes for my scepticism here. Please continue anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deyu25 Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Re: Draws for profit...Not in the black! Raja Casablanca X Pavia X Doxa Dramas X Maritimo Funchal X Maccabi Haifa X Numancia X Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 Re: Draws for profit...Not in the black! Hi deyu25, Thank you for taking an interest in my thread. If you intend to post your own draw selections on Punters Lounge, please could I ask that you start your own thread? Then you can explain your reasoning, (which will be interesting to me and possibly also to others). I just get confused when more than one person starts posting selections in the same thread. Once again, thanks for your interest and good luck if you do decide to start your own thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 Re: Draws for profit...Not in the black! Drawsand' date=' I've got an impression your strategy is just another proof of the Efficiency of the Markets. Your results oscilate up and down in a narrow range with some extremes just to go back to the mean. It is completelly random if you will finish this season in Red or in Black. 122 bets is a very small sample of course, but I am very sceptical on statistic based strategies. I've run a bot on soccer collecting time,score and odds. It basically shows tha whatewer you do (back or lay) you will end up somewhere in a 5% range down or up. Apologyes for my scepticism here. Please continue anyway.[/quote'] Hi Mulkis, thank you for your interest and your comments...There is certainly no need to apologise for being sceptical! In fact I am also more than a little concerned that you are correct, (at least as far as my thread is concerned)! And now I'm going to apologise for the rather "dry" nature of the rest of this post :\ Over the last few weeks I have finally "sussed out" the random number function in Excel, (And yes. I do know there is no such thing as a TRULY random number generator, but it's random enough for my purposes). Anyway, given the number of bets most of us use when creating our systems, it is more than possible that what we are seeing in almost all of the systems is actually just variance! As an example, up to 31st December 2012, I rated 1078 matches for this thread of which 310 ended as draws (28.76%). We have to accept that we can't know the real draw percentage, (it's not the same as tossing a coin)...only that it is 28.76% in this particular set of 1078 matches. Using the random number generator, in a series of 1000 sets of 1038 matches, (with a "true" 28.76% chance of the match ending in a draw), there are some rather frightening figures: The very best win percentage was 33.12% :D The very worst win percentage was 24.86% :eyes The longest losing run was 45 :wall And the average win rate based on over 1 million matches!!! (1078000) was 28.78%...So the random number generator appears to be working properly. And when the sample size is smaller, say 120 bets (the number of matches I actually predicted would be draws) the figures are even scarier! Based on a true win rate of 28.76% and again running 1000 simulations: The very best win percentage was 41.67% :D The very worst win percentage was 19.17% :eyes The longest losing run was 25 :wall And the average win rate based on 120000 matches was 28.71% My actual win rate on this thread was 28.33% There are a Hell of a lot of numbers above, and I'm not sure if I've explained myself very well...Maths GCE grade C, and I'm certainly no teacher! But what they say to me is that almost all of us assume our system is or isn't profitable way too quickly. Having said all that, I shall still carry on posting for the rest of the season :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dub888 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: Draws for profit...Not in the black! Hi Drawsandmore been folllowing this thread. Ive been doing my own draws experiment and putting all the data into a spreadsheet. Couple of questions. Been betting for a few years on football but only recently getting to know the terms and expressions. What is the yield and how do you calculate it? Can you explain how the points system works, did I hear 10 pts is half your balance and you should never bet more than that in one bet? Also have you any tips or something to download for professional looking spreadsheets or even send me a copy/pic of yours? If anyone can answer Id appreciate it, cheers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: Draws for profit...Not in the black! Hi Drawsandmore been folllowing this thread. Ive been doing my own draws experiment and putting all the data into a spreadsheet. Couple of questions. Been betting for a few years on football but only recently getting to know the terms and expressions. What is the yield and how do you calculate it? Can you explain how the points system works, did I hear 10 pts is half your balance and you should never bet more than that in one bet? Also have you any tips or something to download for professional looking spreadsheets or even send me a copy/pic of yours? If anyone can answer Id appreciate it, cheers! Yield is how much the system makes you. For example if you had 10% yield it just means that every £10 you bet on the system £11 was returned. This is worked out (Profit/Amount.Staked) x 100 giving you a percentage. PTS is just a way of presenting your bets without showing how much your betting. For example 10 pts could mean 10% of your "bank" or can be any figure (I think). Generally as a rule though never put more than 5% of your "bank" on one stake and the rule is defiantly not 50%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: Draws for profit...Not in the black! Hi Drawsandmore been folllowing this thread. Ive been doing my own draws experiment and putting all the data into a spreadsheet. Couple of questions. Been betting for a few years on football but only recently getting to know the terms and expressions. What is the yield and how do you calculate it? Can you explain how the points system works, did I hear 10 pts is half your balance and you should never bet more than that in one bet? Also have you any tips or something to download for professional looking spreadsheets or even send me a copy/pic of yours? If anyone can answer Id appreciate it, cheers! Hi Dub888 and thank you for your interest. Yield is profit divided by total stakes x 100. Profit: 5.00 Total Stakes: 50.00 Yield: 10% As far as "points" are concerned, they can be whatever you want them to be...Whether you have a bank of £100, and you bet in units of £1 or a bank of £500 and always bet in units of £5 you are effectively betting 1 point units of a 100 point bank. In the example given by you, if 10 points is half your balance, it would indicate your bank was originally 20 points. Staking is very much a personal thing, albeit dictated in part by your expected strike rate, but I certainly wouldn't recommend risking half your bank on one bet! Even betting very long odds on shots, I wouldn't expect anyone to advocate betting more than 10% of their original bank. If you're going to be backing draws, I would suggest that you bet the smallest percentage of your bank that has the potential to return an amount that is worthwhile to you. In my case, I currently bet 4% of my original bank on every match...If I'm honest, 4% is a little on the high side given my strike rate, but anything less than that and it just isn't worth the hassle of updating the figures in the spreadsheet, chasing the best price and placing the bets. As far as "professional" looking spreadsheets? Who cares? It's not a beauty contest is it? Just plan what you want it to do, and then keep it as simple, straightforward and logical as possible. Because at some point you WILL have to go back in to the "guts" of it and add or correct something. I'll try to upload a picture of my spreadsheet in the next few days, but I'm not really very good at that sort of thing!!! Good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.