Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012

[staffy]

[TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR=class: row0] [TD=class: firstColumn]Arsenal v Sunderland (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.75 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[IAmGooner]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 Arsenal have zero chance for the title mate, getting 4th will be a battle again as Chelsea will definitely not be as bad as last season domestically and we are a level or two behind United and City and should finish 15 pts+ behind again. Too early to make predictions until we see ins and outs for sure and pre-season matches but with news of RVP wanting out and facing a hard-working MON side on the first day, cant say I am looking forward to it, narrow win or a draw wouldnt shock. Bit concerned that we might have to field 2/3's of a brand new attack with Giroud and Podolski, thats no ideal at all.

[hoddspur]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 There could be value in laying Arsenal or backing the draw IMO. In the past 6 seasons Arsenal have struggled a little bit on the first day of the season despite winning 3 and drawing 2 of their opening fixtures dating back to the 2007/08 season. Firstly, last season they started with a dire 0-0 draw at Newcastle where Gervinho was sent off and in 2010/11 they started the season with a 1-1 draw at Liverpool and only got a point thanks to a Pepe Reina own goal howler in injury time. In 2009/10 they started the campaign with a 6-1 thumping of Everton at Goodison Park and in 2008/09 they started with a slender 1-0 home win against West Brom and in the season before that they won 2-1 at home to Fulham but were trailing 1-0 with 6 minutes to go but came back to win in injury time. Finally, in 2006/07 they started the campaing with a 1-1 draw at home to Aston Villa and got a late equaliser to rescue a point. So their results on the opening day over the past 6 seasons are: 2011/12 - Newcastle 0-0 Arsenal 2010/11 - Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal 2009/10 - Everton 1-6 Arsenal 2008/09 - Arsenal 1-0 West Brom 2007/08 - Arsenal 2-1 Fulham 2006/07 - Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa Although judging from the results they have a decent record on the opening day, they don't truly reflect the reality. They got a late equaliser against Villa, two late goals against Fulham to turn the game around and got a last minute equaliser at Liverpool thanks to an own goal by Reina. So if you take out these late goals that all came in the 84th minute or later then they would have lost 3 of their last 6 opening games. Sunderland's opening day record over the last 5 seasons (since they were promoted back to the premier league) is: 2011/12 - Liverpool 1-1 Sunderland 2010/11 - Sunderland 2-2 Birmingham 2009/10 - Bolton 0-1 Sunderland 2008/09 - Sunderland 0-1 Liverpool 2007/08 - Sunderland 1-0 Tottenham Judging from this they have a decent record with 2 wins 2 draws and 1 loss from the last 5 seasons. Also, note that in the 2 games they have played away from home they have not lost and won 1 and drew 1. Therefore, in the last 11 opening day fixtures by both Arsenal and Sunderland, only 1 of the games have seen either of these sides lose which was Sunderland's 1-0 defeat to Liverpool in 2008/09. IMO these statistics and the current positions of the clubs indicate that i think there is value in either laying Arsenal or backing the draw at 4/1. If and when Van Persie does leave Arsenal it will be a blow even though they have signed Podolski and Giroud. Furthermore, in this opening game against Sunderland, Arsenal's front three is likely to include 2 new players in Podolski and Giroud and they may find it difficult to get their partnership clicking straight away and Sunderland could take advantage of this. Sunderland on the other hand have not really changed their squad thus far in the transfer market but have added Carlos Cuellar to their backline which will improve their defence as they desperately needed a centre-back. The loss of Asamoah Gyan is disappointing but they were without him last season and managed to finish in mid-table so he won't be a huge miss for them. Sunderland have some very talented midfielders with Larsson, McClean, Gardner and Colback. and in attack they have another good player in Sessegnon who will be a threat to Arsenal. As i said previously there have been very few transfers in and out of Sunderland so far this summer so their squad will all know each other well and this could benefit them against a new look Arsenal attack. Taking into account all of the statistics on opening day fixtures and the current transfers in and out of the clubs i think that there is value in either laying Arsenal or backing the draw at 4/1 which is a great price IMO. I think this game will finish 1-1 which looks quite appealing at 9/1 at William Hill. Good Luck all :ok

[Mustafa]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 Also want to add that head to head stats between these two are not in favor of Arsenal. The Gunners won only 4 out of the last 10 games between these two sides, with Sunderland recording 2 wins, while 4 games ended in a draw. With odds @ 1.40 bookmakers give Arsenal about 71% of winning, while I think that they have 40-50% chance of winning this game. So, in my opinion the value is on opposing Arsenal here.

[neilovan]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 See Arsenal cruising to a win here. Last 7 times played at highbury/emirates 5 wins and 2 draws for Arsenal. [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TH]Date[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH]HT[/TH] [TH]FT[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011-10-16[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]1-1[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]2-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011-03-05[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]0-0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]0-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2010-02-20[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]1-0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]2-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2009-02-21[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]0-0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]0-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2007-10-07[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]2-1[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]3-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2005-11-05[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]2-0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]3-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2002-10-06[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]3-0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: green]3-1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Sunderland have terrible away form, winning once in 10 games, scoring 6 and conceding 17 goals. What's changed from last season to this one ? Arsenal are prob a better defensive team now... Sunderland failed to score (first-half away) 68% of the time last year, but were solid in defense (11 cleansheets away in 1st half). 0-0 halftime score would seem a reasonable bet/

[Jase82]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 Are you actually agreeing with yourself now? :lol

[altocirrus]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012

Are you actually agreeing with yourself now? :lol

:rollin I literally spitted my tomato basil soup reading this.. :unsure

[Jase82]

I've seen a lot of talk about Podolski recently and how he will struggle to fit in. I personally don't agree with that as he has played for many years on the German league, which is a league fairly similar to the EPL, he's of that age now where you'd expect him to more or less fit in quite well as he's extremely experienced, and has scored goals at both club and international level. I think Arsenal have made a cracking signing that should suit their style, and of offers a wealth of experience both at club and international levels, which means their shouldn't IMO be to much need for a bedding in period.

[Guest]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 If there is one thing that I have learned in the last 3 years of PL betting, it is that you should never bet on Arsenal :lol Well, never in the 'normal' circumstances. They get some of the craziest results (in a bad way) and I can remember newly promoted newcastle being priced at 10-11 to win at Emirates (which they did). Since then I try to look for these sorts of games, we all know that anyone can beat anyone in this league, and with Arsenal I think they have the biggest chance of embarrassing defeats in the top 4, yet their prices reflect them as a team that wins consistently. Sunderland are not a bad team at all, and picked up a lot as the season progressed. I will definitely be opposing Arsenal for this in one way or another and the odds just seem too good. I'm not sure whether or not I will back Sunderland entirely, but I may look into some handicap options. I am also tempted to get on this now as I think that RVP will leave this year, and that will surely bring the odds for Sunderland in a little. In terms of reasoning other than what I said, have a look at the stats above. 1.4 is too low for a team that could lose their star player, its the first game of the season, Sunderland are not an awful team etc... Still be careful when looking at historical data, people will always quote specifics to back themselves up and conveniently ignore other things haha...

[Jase82]

They lost to Sunderland in 2000. They lost to Coventry in 1993. They lost to Norwich in 1992.

I personally don't see how those results are relevant aidy when you consider how many other results they've had on the other side of the coin.

[Guest]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 Also from a purely statistical point of view... The win odds have an implied probability of 72% Last season, Arsenal had a win % at home of 63% against all teams As stated by others, Arsenal have drawn with Sunderland at home in 3/4 last games Odds are ridiculously biased towards Arsenal Sunderland +1 @ 3.2

[Mustafa]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 Since it is the opening game of the season there is not much statistical information that I can rely on, since pre-season friendly games are irrelevant in my opinion. So, I will just look at head to head stats between these two sides. Arsenal often struggles against Sundarland, whether they play at the Emirates or the Stadium of Lights. In the last 10 games between these two sides the Gunners have managed only 4 wins, while Sunderland won only twice, with other 4 fixtures ending in draw. Moreover, out of the said 4 wins for Arsenal they won by 2 goals only once. So in my opinion the odds on Arsenal @ 1.40 in the opening game of the season are not justified in my opinion, so the value is on Sunderland here and even if Arsenal wins I can't see them winning by more than 1 goal. Sunderland +2 @ 1.72 (3 units) Bet365

[H1]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012

Since it is the opening game of the season there is not much statistical information that I can rely on' date= since pre-season friendly games are irrelevant in my opinion. So, I will just look at head to head stats between these two sides. Arsenal often struggles against Sundarland, whether they play at the Emirates or the Stadium of Lights. In the last 10 games between these two sides the Gunners have managed only 4 wins, while Sunderland won only twice, with other 4 fixtures ending in draw. Moreover, out of the said 4 wins for Arsenal they won by 2 goals only once. So in my opinion the odds on Arsenal @ 1.40 in the opening game of the season are not justified in my opinion, so the value is on Sunderland here and even if Arsenal wins I can't see them winning by more than 1 goal. Sunderland +2 @ 1.72 (3 units) Bet365

Is it really +2ah? The price I see for that is 1.4.. would have taken it for 1.72, as I also think Arsenal may struggle to beat the 2-goal winning margin

[Mustafa]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012

Is it really +2ah? The price I see for that is 1.4.. would have taken it for 1.72, as I also think Arsenal may struggle to beat the 2-goal winning margin

It is not AH, it is a regular one. You won't get your money back if Arsenal wins by 2 goals.

[Pay Day]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012

Arsenal v Sunderland: After watching Arsenal and Sunderland progress through their pre-season games, and considering various statistical datasets I think it's about time to take a proper punt on the game and how it might go, with the game now days from play... Odds will be far better just before kick off so I am not supplying them for this game at the moment - but I am sure they will be pretty good for the reasons already outlined by other posters here so far (head 2 head results past 3 seasons, first game of season for both etc). ARSENAL TO WIN / Pretty much a certainty for me though at the current odds it's just not worth taking, as small stakes return next to nothing and a big stake represents a financial risk should Sunderland somehow prevent them from the win. Stranger things have happened so I am not going in all guns blazing on the team to win as I think it's daft when the overs / unders offer significantly more value. I would expect to see prices of about 1/9 so not really worth the money for me with the below offerings bettering that. OVER 2.5 GOALS / Should be some good value here, as recent games have produced 2 goals and no more. That isn't to say this game doesn't have more than a few goals in there though, and for me 3 is an absolute certainty so this is kind of a covering bet for the others, to minimise the loss risk. Expect to see odds of about 8/11 just before kick off, which I think screams value very loudly. OVER 3.5 GOALS / Dead certainty for me, without Van Persie Arsenal will be looking to show their attacking intent. Van Persie was practically a passenger in their last preseason game; anybody who watched knew he was on the way out. But they ran out comfortable 4-0 winners there at a canter. Giroud could have had a few goals too as I am sure he will once he gets a few pitch minutes in a proper game. Podolski looks like he is in the mood for a few goals, and even Gervais managed to grab one at the end - looking threatening every time he was able to get forward. Not sure on the odds but guessworking I would say about 12/5 before a goal is scored. OVER 1.5 GOALS HT / Good chance of a couple of first half goals, probably both from the Arsenal or possibly one each since Arsenal's flanks are not as well guarded as usual. The odds will be pretty good on this one too, judging from their past head to head results. Maybe 13/8 or something will be the offering which I think could be good value. OVER 11 TOTAL CORNERS / Again, I feel this is a very safe bet as both teams do get a fair amount of corners, and last I checked the league average from last season was 14. Gervinho when he plays seems to win lots of corners as he is always looking to run in behind the fullback and shoot, forcing the keeper to palm the ball behind or a defender to get it there himself. Might get in on the corners race action too, after the first few minutes after seeing what the teams look like in the game. Probable odds for me are about 4/6 before a corner is awarded in the game. If the game reaches 70mins and there are less than 3 goals I will be looking at UNDER 4.5 GOALS to as I think there will be big stakes value there for those with the nerve to chuck in a lump. If there are less than 4 goals by then, will be looking at UNDER 5.5 GOALS in a similar way should the odds show some value. Looking forward to getting back to Premier League punting, as the leagues I have been stuck with during the close season are pretty awful. For instance Australian league game last week finished 7-2, had some hefty overs betting on that but you couldn't seriously pick a winner as it was 11 v 11 strikers! Very entertaining but give me Arsenal v Sunderland and 3-1 scorelines any day of the week! Good luck all, see you down the bookies :)

I just highlighted some of your text in Bold as I thought it would be constructive to consider other perceptions: Arsenal would never be at 1/9 at home to anyone in this league- they are not Barcelona and this is not La Liga! You say it is a dead certainty in your eyes for over 3.5 goals because they want to show their attacking intent? But surely you must be concerned that they have lost their only world class striker so potentially scoring goals might be an issue, especially during the early games when new players are gelling. Statistically, from last season, Arsenal home games only went over 3.5 4 times (BBurn 7-1, Stoke 3-1, Spurs 5-2 and Norwich 3-3) out of 19. Compared to their rivals Man City (9) Man Utd (7) Chelsea (7) Spurs (7) and Newcastle (4). I wouldn't be at all confident of +3.5 here. They won 4-0 against a 2nd divisio German team, although their attack might have clicked in a pre-season game I wouldn't count on it working in a pressured initial game against a hard-working and usualy organised Sunderland team. Overall last season, Arsenal conceded more than Sunderland. I'm staying well away from this game. I do agree Arsenal should win, but see little value at over 2.5 below evens and certainly none over 3.5 at around 2/1. I think Arsenal will finish top 4, and seeing their tricky beginning fixture list, I might wait for the markets to over-react when/if they are languishing in mid-table and put a hefty wedge on them doing so! Good luck with your bets :)

[RedDevil92]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 Song could be gone until saturday with Barcelona holding negotiations over signing him. Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain aren't totally fit and have to be assessed before that match as both of them have pulled out of England's friendly against Italy. Overall the team doesn't look that strong to me. Song is their best midfielder and with Wilshere still being out, is quite weak regarding that the only good midfielders left are Ramsey, Arteta and Cazorla although Cazorla can play on the left wing. Up front, they will use most likely Podolski but to me, he is definitely overrated. You can say that he scored quite a few goals for Cologne but Cologne's team was/is just crap. So no value on Arsenal to win or even on handicaps, over 3,5 might be too much as well.

[godmato]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 Arsenal lacks offensive power without van Persie. Why not bet on away win? As time will pass by and gunners no goal they will get nervous and will start making mistakes. IS so big the difference in quality between them and Sunderland?

[Jase82]

You say it is a dead certainty in your eyes for over 3.5 goals because they want to show their attacking intent? But surely you must be concerned that they have lost their only world class striker so potentially scoring goals might be an issue, especially during the early games when new players are gelling. Statistically, from last season, Arsenal home games only went over 3.5 4 times (BBurn 7-1, Stoke 3-1, Spurs 5-2 and Norwich 3-3) out of 19. Compared to their rivals Man City (9) Man Utd (7) Chelsea (7) Spurs (7) and Newcastle (4). I wouldn't be at all confident of +3.5 here.

Add to that the fact Sunderland are lacking offensively, and MON is actively searching for a new striker...

[RedDevil92]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 He signed Saha on a free today. But he is still looking at Steven Fletcher.

[Jase82]

He signed Saha on a free today. But he is still looking at Steven Fletcher.

Cheers for that! With all the Pompey news I missed that signing...

[blackcrow]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 Under 2.5 @ 2.12 With the sale of van Persie the question is where the goals are going to come from for Arsenal, as he had a sensational year last year. The purchases of Podolski and Giroud may bear fruit later in the season as they get used to the EPL, but they are up against a side like Sunderland that will not give much away defensively. Arsenal are without Oxlade-Chamberlain and Walcott is doubtful, which means their attack is even further weakened. Sunderland's own attack is without Sessegnon so expect them to pack the midfield and look to take a point away. Doubt that there will be many goals in this game

[IAmGooner]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 The goals will come from Van Persie's replacements, we've added 3 attackers in Cazorla, Giroud and Podolski. Cazorla will be excellent for us, like a Mata or Silva type player. Podolski will score goals, I have no doubt, he looked promising against Cologne with his link-up play and finishing. Talk that he will play centrally today with Walcott/Gervinho on the flanks, Cazorla behind them. Giroud on the bench. So we've gone from Gervinho, Walcott, RVP, Ramsey in attack to Walcott, Giroud, Podolski, Cazorla..........it's not a disaster. But it appears Giroud is a bit tired and might not start. Let's see. Sunderland are dogged but things were beginning to turn at the end of last season where they were crap for about 10 games. The new manager factor had worn off by then. They've done very little business this Summer, so I think if we can score first Sunderland are gone. They'll make it tough, it's a Martin O'Neill side so i'd not expect an easy game, should be tough at times. But I fancy us to get the job done. Will probably pass on this round, my feelings are for Newcastle 0 AH and West Brom +0.5 AH who I think are both overpriced.......but like to get a feel for all the teams in week 1. Happy punting.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012

The goals will come from Van Persie's replacements' date=' we've added 3 attackers in Cazorla, Giroud and Podolski. Cazorla will be excellent for us, like a Mata or Silva type player.[b'] Podolski will score goals, I have no doubt, he looked promising against Cologne with his link-up play and finishing. Talk that he will play centrally today with Walcott/Gervinho on the flanks, Cazorla behind them. Giroud on the bench. So we've gone from Gervinho, Walcott, RVP, Ramsey in attack to Walcott, Giroud, Podolski, Cazorla..........it's not a disaster. But it appears Giroud is a bit tired and might not start. Let's see. Sunderland are dogged but things were beginning to turn at the end of last season where they were crap for about 10 games. The new manager factor had worn off by then. They've done very little business this Summer, so I think if we can score first Sunderland are gone. They'll make it tough, it's a Martin O'Neill side so i'd not expect an easy game, should be tough at times. But I fancy us to get the job done. Will probably pass on this round, my feelings are for Newcastle 0 AH and West Brom +0.5 AH who I think are both overpriced.......but like to get a feel for all the teams in week 1. Happy punting.

I've seen quite a lot of matches from him. If it doesn't look well, he mostly doesn't come up and change the match. To me, he is no improvement for Arsenal, rather a step back.

[blackcrow]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012

Under 2.5 @ 2.12 :D

1-0 (+1.12)

[Aidymac]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 Well done winners! Arsenal were truly awful, watched the game online. No creativity at all! Missing Robin hugely already.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012 Without creativity, Robin wouldnt have done anything tbf, we had plenty of games like this with him in the side and Fabregas before that. We looked like a team trying to gel new players, bit disjointed at times. Sunderland were utter ****e and sat back throughout and we struggled to break them down despite dominating. Giroud missed a sitter, shame. Song gone now and Sahin is arriving so hopefully more creativity on the horizon, this guy is brilliant.

[Aidymac]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012

Without creativity, Robin wouldnt have done anything tbf, we had plenty of games like this with him in the side and Fabregas before that. We looked like a team trying to gel new players, bit disjointed at times. Sunderland were utter ****e and sat back throughout and we struggled to break them down despite dominating. Giroud missed a sitter, shame. Song gone now and Sahin is arriving so hopefully more creativity on the horizon, this guy is brilliant.

Robin created goals for himself last season. How many times did we see him pick up the ball 25 yards out, turn and hit a screamer into the corner? Your a bit optimistic, if i were you i would be worrying.

[HastGill1]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012

Robin created goals for himself last season. How many times did we see him pick up the ball 25 yards out' date=' turn and hit a screamer into the corner? Your a bit optimistic, if i were you i would be worrying.[/quote'] I don't think anyone will be celebrating or worrying after one game.

[Aidymac]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012

I don't think anyone will be celebrating or worrying after one game.

So Liverpool fan's won't be worried after today no?

[HastGill1]

Re: Arsenal v Sunderland Saturday 18th August 2012

So Liverpool fan's won't be worried after today no?

I've watched Gillingham win 5-0 on the opening day before and get relegated, nothings won or lost in August.