Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th

[BillyHills]

Lets hope Newcastle gets the go ahead tomorrow! 2.15 Newcastle: Betfred Mobile Lotto Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) (6f) A good quality renewal here and I think it will involve the market leaders, I like Eton Rifles in these conditions and hopefully will get the breaks this time, he’s definitely coming to hand and will be hard to beat. The obvious danger is Our Jonathan who has made the transition from handicap company to Group class and I expect the pair to fight out the finish. Selections: 2pts Eton Rifles 9/2 Paddy Power 1pt Our Jonathan 3/1 Boylesports Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newcastle-betting--eton-rifles-to-get-back-to-winning-ways-in-newcastle-opener

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th 3:20 Newcastle – John Smith´s Northumberland Plate I am not sure if the meeting will go ahead as they are inspecting at 8am tomorrow but we will give it a go just in case they pass. There are some decent trends surrounding the Northumberland Plate and I could have kicked myself last year for ignoring them when it came to the winner. He qualified on most counts but, ignorantly, I ignored him because of connections. I won’t be making that same mistake again. Accept for Bangalore who carried 9st 5lbs to victory in 2002, 11 of the last 12 Northumberland Plate winners carried less than 9st. I am going to stick to my guns this year and that therefore means going against the current favourite Ile De Re and the fancied Gulf Of Naples in addition to Petara Bay, Blue Bajan, Icon Dream and Crackentorp. Following on nicely from the issue of weight, it is interesting to note that 11 of the last 13 renewals were won by horses officially rated between 85 & 94. The only 2 exceptions to that rule were Archduke Ferdinand in 2001 and the aforementioned Bangalore in 2002. Therefore I am taking the bold move to discount The Betchworth Kid, Motivado and Kiama Bay who all appear to be too high in the weights and Halla San, French Hollow and Trovare who appear too low. It is natural to assume that the draw in a 2m race won’t make any difference to the outcome, but that isn’t necessarily the case. There has been a minor blip over the past couple of years but historically a low number has generally provided the highest number of winners. In fact, 8 of the last 13 winners came from a single figure draw. Therefore, although I am not discounting Lyric Street, Montaff, Kazbow, high Office and Lexington Bay at this stage they all need to remain strong against the other trends to make it onto the shortlist. Moving on to previous form, 9 of the last 13 winners had raced within the last 28 days. Unlike sprinters who can be wound up at home on the gallops, these older stayers tend to need a race or two under their belts to be seen at their best and therefore those that have been off the track a long time should be avoided. Lyric Street and Figaro are the only 2 that fail in this area but only just. Equally as important is last time out form but not in the way you might think. In the last 12 years only 2 winners had been successful last time out, confirming that attentions should be focused on those runners that haven’t shown their full hand to the handicapper. However, the majority of those remaining 10 winners had been coming into the race with a decent effort last time behind them so I wouldn’t be too keen on anything that has been struggling coming into the race. When it comes to stamina, it goes without saying that you need to select a horse that is guaranteed to get the 2m19y trip, especially given the deluge that fell on Newcastle earlier this week. It is very easy to look at a 1m4f horse and convince yourself that he will improve for the step up in trip, a general failing of mine, but in the Plate you must stick to the proven stayers as 8 of the last 12 winners had already won over a minimum of 1m6f on the level and Mirjan and Arc Bleu had both won over 2m plus over hurdles. The only recent winner who stamina was in question going into the race was Archduke Ferdinand who hadn’t won beyond 7f on the flat but had hinted that he had a race like this in his armoury when only beaten 3L in the Gr3 Queen’s Vase 11 days earlier. Paul Cole and George Moore have been trainers to follow in the Plate but neither is represented this year. To be fair, there aren’t any trainers with runners in the race this year that have massively positive records although Richard Fahey has had a couple finish in the minor placings. However, on a negative front Mark Johnston has been one to avoid which is strange given his reputation with stayers. Since Quick Ransom caused a 25/1 upset in 1994, his runners have tended to struggle in this race so that stat helps to ease the concerns about striking Gulf Of Naples off the shortlist. With recent winners being aged from 3 to 8, there isn’t a lot to be learned although horses aged from 6 to 8 have won 7 of the last 12 renewals implying that the older horses should be the first port of call. With there being no major trials for the Northumberland Plate, the final thing to be considered is the betting. 8 of the last 12 winners had come from the first 8 in the betting so whilst I won’t be completely put off a runner at a big price, I shall be having a close look at those nearer to the head of the market. Shortlist Montaff Palazzo Bianco (High Office) (Lexington Bay) Conclusion After a memorable Royal Ascot John Gosden’s team will be in high spirits and Palazzo Bianco could add to that tomorrow. Princess Haya’s colt looked a very progressive stayer in the making last season and hasn’t done a lot to detract from that on his 2 starts this term. He clearly gets every yard of this 2m trip and has ticks in all of the right boxes. However, sometimes the trends can lead you down a dark alley as he looked to get stuck in the mud on heavy ground at Haydock last season and therefore there has to be an element of doubt about his ability to act on it tomorrow. It could be that he just ran flat at Haydock but something tells me that he might want a sounder surface. High Office has handled soft ground in the past but quite how he will cope with this is open to debate. From a trends point of view he us fairly strong and shouldn’t have any problems getting the trip as he did win over 1m6 at Musselburgh last season. His last couple of starts also offer enthusiasm. Narrowly beaten at York’s Dante Meeting, he then ran another sound race off his revised mark at Newmarket next time. He does have a bit to prove but he seems to be going the right way. Stablemate Lexington Bay was a soft ground winner at Ayr last season and would appear to get the trip judged on his narrow defeat at Kempton in April. I am willing to ignore his recent defeat as the trip looked on the sharp-side for him and so I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see him bounce back although he too have a bit to prove off his current mark. But for my main selection I am siding with MONTAFF who finished runner-up in this race last year. I would say that his is pretty bomb-proof over this trip and encouragingly he did win his maiden on heavy ground here back in 2008 and has run well with cut in the ground since. It is also interesting to see that he is 11lb lower than when finishing runner-up here last year. A cynic might suggest that his season has been geared around winning this race, with the objective of his runs this season to get his handicap mark down. Whilst that may be the case, there is also the consideration that he might actually be regressive. But Channon has done it in this race in the past with Som Tala and as he performs well against the trends he gets the final vote. 7:40 Curragh – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Gr1) As you would expect for a Classic, the Irish Derby always goes the way of a top class colt and often one that comes into the race on the back of some rock-solid form. Nine of the last ten winners had already won earlier in the season and on that basis the seasonal debut Akeed Mofeed looks to have plenty to prove on his first start since last September, along with Born To Sea who is yet to get off the mark after three starts this season. With the exception of Soldier Of Fortune, Frozen Fire and Cape Blanco the remaining seven winners over the past decade had all achieved a top three finish on their most recent start. This re-confirms that rock-solid recent form really is a must when it comes to this Group 1 contest and therefore Astrology who was a disappointing 4th in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, Born To Sea who posted an improved effort when 4th in the St James’s Palace Stakes at the same meeting and Imperial Monarch who had absolutely no luck in running when only finishing 8th in the Prix Du Jockey Club all have a major hurdle to overcome. Interestingly, only High Chaparral has won the Irish Derby in the last ten years off the back of a victory. All barring Grey Swallow, Hurricane Run and Cape Blanco had previously contested the Epsom Derby which isn’t totally surprising given the prestige of both races. A strong performance at Epsom helps alleviate any class or stamina worries surrounding any selection and of those Irish Derby winners that had contested the Epsom showpiece, only Soldier Of Fortune and Frozen Fire had failed to achieve a top three finish. Therefore, this year’s impressive Epsom winner Camelot would appear to fit the bill nicely and possibly Astrology who only just lost out in the battle for second. Aidan O’Brien has won the Irish Derby nine times since 1997 and seven times in the last decade. No other trainer has had a look-in recently as he has dominated the race over the past six years and with Astrology, Camelot and Imperial Monarch representing him tomorrow there is every chance he will record his own ‘magnificent seven’. British trained horses have an appalling record in the Irish Derby; Balanchine providing our last success back in 1994. The betting has proved highly informative in recent seasons as more often than not, the race is won by one of the more fancied runners. Grey Swallow and Frozen Fire are the only two notable exceptions as an average starting price of 9/2 tells us that those towards the head of the market tend to perform as expected. Four of the last ten winners had been send off the favourite and four second favourite and if this continues to be the case today Camelot who is currently a very well-supported odds-on favourite and Imperial Monarch who is next best at around 13/2 would appear to have the race between them. With only seven runners tomorrow each-way bets will only pay out for second place but big-priced shocks have been a regular occurrence in recent seasons, so don’t let that put you off. Sholokhov sprang a 200/1 surprise when runner-up in 2002 and a year later Roosevelt finished 3rd at 150/1 before Tycoon achieved the same feat 12 months later. Shortlist Camelot (Light Heavy) Conclusion But there is to be no shock selection as the trends firmly suggest that CAMELOT will give Aidan O’Brien his 7th successive Irish Derby winner. This Montjeu colt was impressive when winning the 2000 Guineas, despite the one mile trip being on the sharp-side for him, but surpassed even that when winning so easily over a mile and a half at Epsom. It will take a massive effort from one of his rivals to lower his colours. Imperial Monarch falls down on his last time out effort but it could be dangerous to rely too heavily on that given that it was a very messy race in France. Light Heavy and Speaking Of Which have done nothing but improve all season and whilst they would both need to step up again, it isn’t totally out of the question judged on what they have shown so far. Earlier in the week I had been quite keen of Dermot Weld’s colt as he really impressed me when winning on the Guineas card. However, that initial enthusiasm has been tempered somewhat but the heavy rains as I believe that he will only be seen at his best on a sounder surface and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pulled out. There is less of a concern surrounding Jim Bolger’s colt who won the Derrinstown Derby Trial on good to soft and therefore his current price of around 25/1 does look a tad insulting.

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th 3.20 Newcastle: John Smith’s Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (2m19y) A terrific renewal and it will be a shame if the weather intervenes, the two at the top of the market are very solid candidates and you cant fault Ile De Re’s win at Chester, he travelled smoothly that day and stayed on really well, he should get through the ground and will be hard to beat. As an alternative at bigger odds The Betchworth Kid could be worth backing for a place, he’s been layed out for this race and wont mind the ground and is well handicapped on his best form. Selections: 2pts Ile De Re 6/1 Ladbrokes 1pt EW The Betchworth Kid 12/1 William Hill Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newcastle-betting--that-man-mccain-has-the-answer-to-another-staying-handicap-with-ile-de-re

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th newcastle might be a nightmare if it goes ahead on boggy ground .......... 4.40 newm 1 46 2----- 3----- 4------ 5------ 6------ 7------ 8 36 9------ 10 19 11 14? 12----- 13 16 14----- 15 14 media hype (11 ) has been penailised heavily and might improve again but low rating leaves questions over his value and 9/2 doesnt look very good to me .the class horses in the race are start right and pivotman with overall ratings top rating pivotman .start right is very consistent in these big hcaps and was probably slightly outclassed lto and drops to a more lenient race off a mark of 100 which he can place off and looks a decent e.w bet at around 10/1 .pivotman ran a good race in a 31000 back end of last season off this mark and has been given a nice warm up for this where he was only about 6 lengths down so i would expect him to be fully primed now and should run well ....best is being offered at 12/1 with paddy power which looks excellent value ....of the others kings warrior (10) looks like a decent sort and could run well off 9/1 ......best value horse pivotman ..... pivotman 2pts e.w 12/1 paddy power start right 1pt e.w 10/1 bet365

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th 2:30 Newmarket: Sandreamer 1pt win 100/30 Coral Sandreamer was due to run at Royal Ascot in the Albany Stakes and was withdrawn. While she would have bumped in to Newfangled there, she looked to have an each way chance and it is interesting that she was nibbled at in the betting at biggish prices before being pulled out. Sandreamer ran well over course and distance in May and the form has been boosted by Sharaarah and Tipping Over who were behind her that day. Could be a fair bit more to come. 3:20 Newcastle: Lyric Street 1pt win 25/1 Boylesports Lyric Street is lightly raced and unexposed at this sort of trip. He has been assessed on his form for Luca Cumani over shorter. There is a decent charce that he will better for this extra distance and he should be ok on the ground. His sire Hurricane Run won on the heavy. The fact both the distance and the going are unknowns are reflected in the price. However, Lyric Street who was gelded too, looks worth chancing after a satisfactory come back run this season particulary with Ed Dunlop in excellent form. 3:30 Newmarket: Libranno 1pt win 9/2 Ladbrokes Libranno goes for a repeat here and with decent form at this level he looks capable of following up on his win at Salisbury last time. That run looked pretty decent form showing determination to hold off fine yard stick Our Jonathan who was in good form himself. Libranno has valuable course form and Richard Hughes rides for Richard Hannon and both have decent records here. 7:40 The Curragh: Imperial Monarch 1pt win 7/1 Blue Square A touch surprised that Imperial Monarch is being allowed to take his chance here. He handles the soft is a course winner and was unlucky in France. Could very well shake up Camelot. Slight injury concern since original post.

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th 3.35 Newmarket: John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes (Group 3) (7f) Looks a three side contest with favourite Hoof It obviously in the driving seat with having a few pound in hand on official figures. Interesting that Dettori has been booked as the horse does need a strong jockey and if he stays the trip he should collect. Libranno will no doubt set sail for home from the two furlong marker and will be hard to peg back and I expect Firebeam to be on the premises late on. Selections; 2pts Hoof It 2/1 Stan James 1pt Libranno 4/1 BetVic Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newmarket-betting--dettori-to-give-hoof-it-group-race-success-at-newmarket

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th 4.40 Newmarket - 2pts win War Poet @ 10/1 (PP) Posted this before his Chester run:

3.10 Chester - 2pts win War Poet @ 6/1 (SJ) Posted this before an intended run at York: He was taken out on this occasion, which was a shame, because I was keen on his chances. He slipped in the paddock and was taken out as a precaution. Assuming everything is fine with the horse now I think he's got a big chance here, for all he runs at a very different track to Doncaster - where he recorded a career-best on his seasonal reappearance. However, he's won at the sharper venue of Thirsk before and I think he'll be capable of handling this tight track. It can often be the case that you need to be close enough turning in here, and that's why I think he has a better chance than some other hold-up merchants here perhaps. He usually makes his ground up with 2 or 3 furlongs to race and that would be a good time to get involved here. Whether that changes due to the nature of the track (no long straight) I do not know but he's usually better value than his winning margins suggest and that was the case at Doncaster as well. It was a decent race and he's a progressive type with only 9 flat starts in his career to date. This is indeed extremely competitive but he's not terribly drawn and so long as he gets the splits, he has the tactical speed to get into the race and should get a decent pace to run off.

He wasn't particularly strong in the market here and he just could never get into the race around the very tight track. Didn't travel as well as normal and just never had a chance of making up ground. Did some late work and will be much more competitive on a more galloping track today I feel. He's 1lb lower in the weights, has an interesting jockey booking in Mickael Barzalona and the David O'Meara yard are in cracking form. The visor is reached for and although I don't think he's a particularly tricky type, he doesn't do too much when he hits the front and if these have a positive effect then this is just an added bonus. Think he'll bounce back and go close today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th 3.20 Newcastle - 2pts win Lexington Bay @ 14/1 (BlueSQ) Posted this last time:

2.05 York - 2pts win Lexington Bay @ 10/1 (Bet365) It's in these sort of races where I think you need a willing partner who will grind out a performance rather than a flashy type who might not be able to show their best under a relatively inexperienced pilot. Richard Fahey's Lexington Bay has been campaigned over further recently but I don't think that's too much of a concern given the testing ground conditions today. It will suit to race prominently which I imagine this one will and he has a nice draw in stall 3 to do just that. His stamina will see her plugging on and I reckon he might just be able to take this with conditions to suit. He's generally progressive and his effort at Kempton last time was excellent. He likes some give in the ground and there's a few of these who might struggle to get home I believe. That will be no problem for my selection and so long as he doesn't get outpaced he should be bang there at the finish. Miss J McLernon can make good use of him and he can definitely still win off this mark. A real stamina test will suit and given they often go off a bit quick in these races, if he gets a lead in those circumstances it will suit and I think he's going to run a very good race.

The ground proved not as bad as I had anticipated and he was a bit slowly away. These factors made it game over as those on the pace prospered at York on that day typically and he couldn't use his stamina. The trip was too short and he just kept on up the straight without threatening. I think he's still fairly handicapped and now up to 2 miles on testing ground (suits) he can return to form. The Fahey yard are going well and he looks the first string on jockey bookings.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th 7.40 Curragh - 1pt win Akeed Mofeed @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) Last punt to try and win the month's competition and on any other day I'd put one of my other ones in here but he's the only one at a big enough price so we shall see. Obviously he hasn't had an ideal preparation with niggles costing him his hopes of running in the English Guineas and Derby and he comes here without a run since September. It's going to be extremely difficult to win this but Camelot is going to be at his most vulnerable on this testing ground you feel so perhaps it's worth taking him on. Imperial Monarch should go well with John Oxx's runners are in form and Johnny Murtagh suggested it was a tough decision to choose between his runners. He's sided with Born To Sea on fitness grounds but that shows they clearly think quite a lot of my selection and Oxx has him as fit as possible without a run. William Buick is hardly a bad replacement and the step up to middle distances this season will really suit. He's a big, galloping sort who showed good form last year despite shaping as if 7f/1m were insufficient. He stayed on well on debut before an impressive 5l eased down victory next time out. Only went down by 1/2l to David Livingston on his final start of the year - closing all the way to the line over a mile on deep ground. Proved he can go on the ground there and although the winner hasn't done much this year, Athens in 3rd and Furner's Green in 4th (2nd in Queens Vase and 3rd in French Guineas respectively) and they were a full 9l+ behind Akeed Mofeed. He's got a pedigree which suggests he'll come into his own at this sort of trip and I think he has a very bright future. I fancied him for the Epsom Derby and with a run I think he could put it up to Camelot. It's going to be tricky without a recent run for sure, but I'll take a chance, and hope he pulls off an upset. I'm sure he'll have his day at some point though.

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th 3.55 Newcastle: Betfred Bonus King Bingo Handicap (Class 2) (7f) One I like is Osteopathic Remedy from the in form Michael Dods stable, he has winning form in heavy ground and at this track and is slipping down the handicap and now races off a mark lower than his last victory. He has met trouble in running the last twice and hopefully today will get the breaks and his ability to stay a mile is a big plus. At around 12/1 he looks the value in the race. A saver on Memory Cloth looks a sensible bet also. Selections; 1pt EW Osteopathic Remedy 12/1 Boylesports 1pt Memory Cloth 9/2 Skybet Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newcastle-betting--trainer-michael-dods-could-have-the-remedy-for-newcastle-slog

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th

3.55 Newcastle: Betfred Bonus King Bingo Handicap (Class 2) (7f) One I like is Osteopathic Remedy from the in form Michael Dods stable, he has winning form in heavy ground and at this track and is slipping down the handicap and now races off a mark lower than his last victory. He has met trouble in running the last twice and hopefully today will get the breaks and his ability to stay a mile is a big plus. At around 12/1 he looks the value in the race. A saver on Memory Cloth looks a sensible bet also. Selections; 1pt EW Osteopathic Remedy 12/1 Boylesports 1pt Memory Cloth 9/2 Skybet Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newcastle-betting--trainer-michael-dods-could-have-the-remedy-for-newcastle-slog

Was just going to come on and post the exact same two up for similar reasons, but also, been looking at the draw stats for Newcastle and it definitely seems to favour Osteoathic Remedy and Memory Cloth who are drawn in 10 and 11.

[Cowan]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th Doncaster 6.40 - Azzura Du Caprio (11/1), Alive And Kicking(12/1), Paradise Spectre (5/1), RFC, RTC Since reopening in 2005 the stands side ground has always been the quickest. Important to note that its a high draw here so high number draws will be on stands rail. Those drawn widest towards the inside will really struggle as a result. Most of the pace in the race is over at the stands side rail too and they tend to be the more progressive horses. Of the 4 paces horses drawn at the rail I'm eliminating Soap Wars because of the layoff and the bitty form. I'm backing the other 3.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th 6:40 Doncaster: Soap Wars 1pt win 15/2 William Hill Soap Wars has an excellent record first time out and Hugo Palmer is a trainer who can get one ready to go. The combination of those two factors, along with decent going and a fair mark should see Soap Wars go close.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th Curragh 4.45pm Is Sharestan really good enough to give lumps of weight away to younger horses? 3 year olds took this race in the last 2 years and for me the better options available are Amira's Prince and Mizani and I favour the former now back to 1m. http://www.punterslounge.com/curragh-betting--sharestan-could-struggle-to-give-weight-away-to-improving-rivals Curragh 7.40pm If the ground isn't too slow then Camelot should be good enough to add another classic win to its ever improving profile. It could quite easily be an O'Brien 1-2 with Imperial Monarch favoured over Astrology but Speaking Of Which could be a decent sort and is a huge price. That one could go well and is worth interest in the w/o fav market too. http://www.punterslounge.com/curragh-betting--camelot-to-continue-the-o-brien-dominance-of-the-irish-derby

[Cowan]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th Steve I agree. Hugo Palmer has a great record and in his 2nd season now. Has acquired a few horses and done well with them. I'm just unsure what to expect from Soap Wars because his record was never great and ran hot/cold. This along with the layoff make me doubt. However if it does win then Hugo will have done a right job on it and I'd expect it to win more.

[stewartd14]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th 4.40 Newmarket Quschi @ 33/1 Skybet Quschi's record here at Newmarket reads 2 wins and 1 place from only 5 starts, and to see a price of 33/1 on offer today is surprising. Two starts this season haven't yielded any sort of success, however, bearing in mind all his best form has come on firmer going, I'm not overly surprised. Returns to the firm going today and back off 933, he's only 4 lbs higher than when he last won here at Newmarket on Good/Firm. Back on a course he likes and going he likes, I don't think that extra 4 lbs is at all prohibitive. 5.05 Windsor Warlu Way @ 16/1 Bet 365 Rawaki @ 11/2 Paddy Power Warlu Way goes off a big price hesed on a dissapointing run at York on his seasonal re-appearance. However, the horse has never gone well fresh and last year showed he has a tendency to improve from first run to 2nd. Finished off last season with what, on my figures, was a lifetime best over the 1 1/2 miles at Newmarket on firmer ground. Looking further than that, all his best runs have come on a sounder surface, and he looks likely to get that today. I'd have actually backed this horse off 93 today, but he's been dropped a pound for his York run, making him even more attractive off 92. The only worry is John Dunlop's form, but I'm willing to take the chance at 16's. Strong race, and I'll also be backing the unexposed Rawaki who ran a solid race on debut at Wolves, disposing of a weak field. Whilst I'm often wary of backing horses who made their debut in such weak maidens, I was impressed with Rawaki last time out at Newmarket who ran well despite a troubled passage. The race has worked out well, and if the horse is over the training problems he looks like he's had, he's a fair bet @ 11/2. 5.35 Windsor Zing Wing @ 25/1 Stan James There's no doubting Paul Cole has had a horrid few years, and it unfortunately doesn't look like it's improved this year. However, Zing Wing has given him 1 of only 3 winners in the past 3 months and she looks well enough handicapped to follow up here. Since winning her maiden back at Kempton in Sep 2010, Zing Wing has struggled to do much of anything. However, she bounced right back to form under Dulio Da Silva at Kempton earlier this month which by my figures was a return back to the form she was showing early in her career. Had dropped right back to a mark of 65, which was always going to be lenient if she could bounce back to her best. She has shown form on the turf earlier in her career, so I don't think there are any question marks over the surface, and I'm happy to back her to follow up at a huge 25/1 today. If she repeats her Kempton effort, I think she goes close.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th

TRAVELLING 5.35 Windsor. 1 point win. Overall form leaves her with a little to find, but handicapper drops her to a mark of 68 and she is open to finding a few lengths with the addition of blinkers. The trip and ground isn't a concern and I feel she'll improve enough to go close this evening. 12/1 Bet365 BOG

[davierich]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th Camelot performed admirably to slog through the ground at the Curragh there. Really intrigued as to where he'll lineup next. Any thoughts fellas? Also a thought that each start this year hasn't been "perfect" conditions so to speak. 2000 Guineas over a mile was probably on the sharp side, Epsom's camber made him work hard also and then obviously the ground in Ireland today was tricky. How good will be when conditions are pretty favourable? Intrigued to say the least.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th

Steve I agree. Hugo Palmer has a great record and in his 2nd season now. Has acquired a few horses and done well with them. I'm just unsure what to expect from Soap Wars because his record was never great and ran hot/cold. This along with the layoff make me doubt. However if it does win then Hugo will have done a right job on it and I'd expect it to win more.

Yes I can see what you mean about Soap Wars Cowan .....and not a great record on turf in hindsight, we'll have to keep an eye up and see how he goes when he does make his seasonal reappearance - perhaps there will be an a/w race

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th :clap Good day BH :clap

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th Thanks Steve, profit in 3 out of 4 races so happy with that on a tricky day:ok