richard-westwood Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 CANT PICK A WINNER TO SAVE MY LIFE AT THE MOMENT .....everything just wont run its race .........going to try something different for a short while .....ive been working on a grading formula for a while now and im going to couple it with the speed ratings and see what happens .....havent had much success trying to couple results to date but this is different and on its own its worked really well to date so should link up pretty well 240 warw 1===== 2====== 3 6pts 74 4 ------- 5 7pts 67 6------ 7 6pts 76 a.w 8 6pts 72 nice little sprint race to start the test off .......class grading suggests the horses to focus on are 3,5,7,8, difficult to know how to split them value wise .....number 7 misere mei has been running well behind in recent races and best rating on a.w so looks negative ........typically as we speak 1 horse number 8 has just pulled out of an 8 runner hcap so the e.w has gone to pot now so straight wins only so with 8 out and 7 negative then that leaves 3 and 5 who are available at nice prices middleton flyer 2pts win 7/1 will hill chicarito 2pts win 10/1 will hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE 3.20 yarm 1 4pts 2 4pts ? 3------- 4 4pts 70 5 7pts 68 a.w 6===== 7===== 8----- 9------ 10 5pts 11---- 12----- overall it looks like the horses to concentrate on are 4and 5 as they possess the combination of class and speed today .....number 5 princess maya rating is a.w so turf not guarnteed but no problems with atlantis crossing who didnt have the best of runs lto and is now 3lbs lighter .......bit of value on both atlantis crossing 2pts win 13/2 sporting bet princess maya 2pts win 7/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE 3.50 yarm 1----- 2----- 3 7pts 75 4 5pts 5---- 6 4pts 7---- 8 5pts 71 9---- 10---- 11----- 12----- looks like the horses to concentrate on are 3 and 8 here multi bene is fav(3) and looks strong on ratings but there is a decent squeak for (8) kashmiri star who at 10/1 looks good value ........ multi bene 4pts win 15/8 bl sq 1pt saver kashmiri star 10/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE 3.00 newc i think the weather is going to play havoc today .....its thunder storms over me so not ideal conditions to test anything but rated this race anyway results @ 5 9pts 72 8 9pts 74 11 13 pts 77 some nice prices on horses 5,8,11 namely colour guard ,swiftly done and prince of dance with highest rating going to bottom weight prince of dance ,odds available mean i can back all 3 rather than split them colur guard 1pt win 12/1 genrally swiftly done 2pt win 6/1 bet365 prince of dance 1pt win 16/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falbrav Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE JUBILEE GAMES 2.00 Newcastle. 1 point win. Don't think it's quite as heavy as they're saying at Newcastle today, which will help all runners. Going up to 6f should suit Jubilee Games and with being open to improve a bit more for it, he can be a tough horse to beat today. Odds on favourite has the form claims, but this trip on this ground makes it a much tighter race. 7/2 Betfred BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE 3.40 warw you really want to be drawn low here at warwick in sprints and of these APPEALING (83)has by far the best speed ratio on the clock in the low draws and although behind radio gaga(87) the draw bias can offset that difference and makes appealing quite value if he can just handle the going 7 of the last 9 winners of this race were drawn in bottom 3 and appealing is drawn 2 !! appealing 10pts e.w 9/1 will hill bog diala could be dangerous if possesses any talent after flopping in guineas ....and is fav as we speak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE 3.10 Warwick - 1pt win Perfect Pastime @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) The yard form is a bit of a concern here but they haven't had too many fancied runners going of late and I think they have a live outsider in this. Previously with Walter Swinburn, this horse was in consistent form last year and showed a particular like for easy tracks such as Goodwood and Epsom. Warwick wouldn't be the most taxing of tracks and I think this will play to his strengths. He struggles to win but isn't off a bad mark and the cheekpieces are on for the first time today. He was likely to need his first run back and found himself too far behind over the lightning 5f at Epsom next time out. You had to be on the pace and he did some of the best work from the back in the field. The visor didn't work at Windsor last time over 6f on soft and I think the easier conditions today with the cheekpieces replacing the visor can see him go close. 3.30 Newcastle - 4pts win John Forbes @ 7/2 (Bet365) This 2 miles is going to be a tough test on heavy ground today at Newcastle so I'm quite happy to be on a horse who I know acts over c&d and relishes give in the ground. Although Brian Ellison's runner is now 10 years of age, he proved he could still be winning races when staying on over a sharp 1m4f at Catterick last time. That isn't his game at that sort of track and he'll be seen to much greater effect today I think. He's dropped down to a winning mark (over c&d) and he just looks sure to relish the conditions today. Boss's Destination has been disappointing the last twice and Boston Blue has to prove he stays this far on heavy ground. The percentage call is definitely with the favourite here and I'll be surprised if he doesn't go extremely close at the very least. 4.10 Warwick - 2pts win Frosty Secret @ 16/1 (Bet365) Jane Chapple-Hyam has a handicap debutant in here and I find her very interesting now she has a mark and goes to war in this sphere. She showed plenty of promise in two maidens last year and it seems to me that her only spin this campaign was to get a mark under an inexperienced pilot. Lewis Walsh is replaced by Richard Hughes (6-18 for yard) and that is a signal of intent in my eyes. She was only beaten 2 1/2l on debut when green and staying on over 7f and was pitched into a Newmarket maiden next time out where she ran in behind the now very talented Starscope. She was beaten just over 8l but it obviously wasn't a bad maiden and it was going to be difficult to seriously compete. Now she's running off a mark of 65 she should be a great deal more competitive and I'm not too concerned about the way she was beaten at Nottingham recently. It was her final run before qualifying for a mark and I expect to see much more now. She's also stepped up in trip to 1m2f - which should suit on pedigree - and I can see her running a big race now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE CANT PICK A WINNER TO SAVE MY LIFE AT THE MOMENT .....everything just wont run its race .........going to try something different for a short while .....ive been working on a grading formula for a while now and im going to couple it with the speed ratings and see what happens .....havent had much success trying to couple results to date but this is different and on its own its worked really well to date so should link up pretty well 240 warw 1===== 2====== 3 6pts 74 4 ------- 5 7pts 67 6------ 7 6pts 76 a.w 8 6pts 72 nice little sprint race to start the test off .......class grading suggests the horses to focus on are 3,5,7,8, difficult to know how to split them value wise .....number 7 misere mei has been running well behind in recent races and best rating on a.w so looks negative ........typically as we speak 1 horse number 8 has just pulled out of an 8 runner hcap so the e.w has gone to pot now so straight wins only so with 8 out and 7 negative then that leaves 3 and 5 who are available at nice prices middleton flyer 2pts win 7/1 will hill chicarito 2pts win 10/1 will hill middleton flyer (horse 3)just beaten by well backed unrated ghazeer so .....2nd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE 3.00 newc i think the weather is going to play havoc today .....its thunder storms over me so not ideal conditions to test anything but rated this race anyway results @ 5 9pts 72 8 9pts 74 11 13 pts 77 some nice prices on horses 5,8,11 namely colour guard ,swiftly done and prince of dance with highest rating going to bottom weight prince of dance ,odds available mean i can back all 3 rather than split them colur guard 1pt win 12/1 genrally swiftly done 2pt win 6/1 bet365 prince of dance 1pt win 16/1 bet365 swiftly done pips it on line in a photo !!!!! get in my old bean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE 3.20 yarm 1 4pts 2 4pts ? 3------- 4 4pts 70 5 7pts 68 a.w 6===== 7===== 8----- 9------ 10 5pts 11---- 12----- overall it looks like the horses to concentrate on are 4and 5 as they possess the combination of class and speed today .....number 5 princess maya rating is a.w so turf not guarnteed but no problems with atlantis crossing who didnt have the best of runs lto and is now 3lbs lighter .......bit of value on both atlantis crossing 2pts win 13/2 sporting bet princess maya 2pts win 7/1 bet365 princess maya 2nd !! argghh ......2x 2nds and 1 winner from 3 races so far sweated up badly before off and must have affected her so good run really considering Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE *Kalk Bay - Hamilton 9:50* A small field like this could be the making of this horse getting back on track. It's form in races with 9 runners or less is 1-3-1 from 3 runs, and this is a 5 runner field. This horse is also very well treated, it won off 86 in 2010, and now runs off 74, plus has a 7 pound claimer on board, so is effectively 19 pounds well in on that run. 2 of it's 3 wins have also come over this trip of 1 mile. I feel it is overpriced here in such a weak contest. *1 Point WIN @ 7/1 Stanjames* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE 3.50 yarm 1----- 2----- 3 7pts 75 4 5pts 5---- 6 4pts 7---- 8 5pts 71 9---- 10---- 11----- 12----- looks like the horses to concentrate on are 3 and 8 here multi bene is fav(3) and looks strong on ratings but there is a decent squeak for (8) kashmiri star who at 10/1 looks good value ........ multi bene 4pts win 15/8 bl sq 1pt saver kashmiri star 10/1 bet365 multi bene wins 2winners ,2 close 2nds from 4 rated races .......looking promising Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE 4.40 warw tough race but nice test 2 5pts 78 5 6pts 10 6pts 11 6 pts only 2 has a decent speed rating but over 7f and if can last this 8f then justbookiedotcom looks a good price at 16/1 ....of the others jalor (5) looks decent and (10) know no fear looks good with ideal condtions and good price .....11 might need better ground so ill go for 2 with 5 and 10 jalors 2pts win 7/1 paddy power know no fear 1pt win 8/1 bet365 justbookiedotcom 1pt win 20/1 sporting bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE 4.40 warw tough race but nice test 2 5pts 78 5 6pts 10 6pts 11 6 pts only 2 has a decent speed rating but over 7f and if can last this 8f then justbookiedotcom looks a good price at 16/1 ....of the others jalor (5) looks decent and (10) know no fear looks good with ideal condtions and good price .....11 might need better ground so ill go for 2 with 5 and 10 jalors 2pts win 7/1 paddy power know no fear 1pt win 8/1 bet365 justbookiedotcom 1pt win 20/1 sporting bet know no fear wins on the bit .........bang 3winners and 2 2nds from 5 races ......class ratings looking good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE Outstanding Richard :clap, You've done well with the speed figures in the last few months. These class ratings add another element for you to consider and they are doing the business too. I like how you use the figures as an aid to making a selection, rather than using the figures to make the selections. When I've used figures in the past I backed blindly and eventually gave them up. Well done getting this to work for you. All the best going forward, Ian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodge Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE 6.50 - Hamilton - Stags Leap @ 3/1 Bet365 Made a good return to flat racing a couple of weeks back when finishing a creditable close 3rd from 4lbs out of the handicap. Raised 4lb for that performance so effectively running off the same mark tonight. Drops back in trip 1f which on the face of it looks like it will help and with this race being of a lower class than his Musselburgh outing i see no reason why he wont be there or there about once more. I think that the current fav Asterales is probably worth taking on having to shoulder a penalty for his latest success, other runner i quite like the look of is Terenzium, who has a good record over C&D but his poor recent form puts me off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verisimilitude Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE Grand Diamond 6.50 Hamilton. 0.5 points each way. Fitness is a worry, but has run well after a break in the past and can win this off a lowered mark of 56 and on his better form. Does handle cut in the ground and the trip's not a concern, so every chance if ready to roll. 18/1 Boylesports (bog) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE Outstanding Richard :clap, You've done well with the speed figures in the last few months. These class ratings add another element for you to consider and they are doing the business too. I like how you use the figures as an aid to making a selection, rather than using the figures to make the selections. When I've used figures in the past I backed blindly and eventually gave them up. Well done getting this to work for you. All the best going forward, Ian \ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE actually at present its quite a simple method at the moment .......i just look at each horses form and only take into account about the last 6-8 runs and look to see how the horse has done off this hcap mark .........i give 5pts for a win ,3pts for 2nd ,2pts for 3rd and 1pt for a 4th ........if the horse has placed over this distance he gets 2pts and then i take the highest value place prizemoney off this mark(last 6) and scrub the last 3 digits (i.e if placed in 5000 then becomes 5 etc) add this to total and note next to horse ........if unplaced ever put a line through horse and only problem i get is judging a winner when its won cosily and just got there by nk etc ........if a horse wins by neck and is raised 6lbs i genrally treat as as finishing 3rd and if wins easily then i treat as winner as put question ......once you have the class rating you can refer to postmarks to narrow down and then i apply speed ratings to see which of the class horses has been running quickly lately ....... todays race 6f so horse 1 placed 2nd in 5000 off todays mark over 6f and today 6f would get 2+3+5 =10 horse 2 placed 2nd in 4000 off todays mark over 5f would get 4+3 =7 a horse that placed 4th off todays mark in a 15000 over 5f in the above race would get 1+15=16 but thats what you would expect as although only 4th it was better class of race so form is stronger but i would make a note as to whther he will stay 6f ?(look at previous races to see if stays 6f) if speed ratings then show that horse 1 did 77 over 6f lto and horse 2 72 over 5f ......youve got yourself a nice bet if you can find a decent price .....its still a work in progress but going along the right lines it isnt always the speed horse that wins but sometimes the horse that ground /distance conditions suit most i.e at the moment its the horse that like softish ground or have dropped to nice hcap mark .......i.e if horse has dropped to 63 today and only has form off 65 and say finished 3rd then you need to flag as possible improver at end when making choice as nicely hcapped and if horse has finished 4th off 63 and now is 61 i would rate as placed 3rd and put question mark for further study etc a horse that placed 2nd or 3rd and had been raised 2lbs or more i would rate as 4th or scrubbed as most likely wont win off this mark unless it was first run of season or high rating Sound promising and if it keeps working like it did today then I expect to see you taking Segal's seat in a few months! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE 3.10 Warwick - 1pt win Perfect Pastime @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) The yard form is a bit of a concern here but they haven't had too many fancied runners going of late and I think they have a live outsider in this. Previously with Walter Swinburn, this horse was in consistent form last year and showed a particular like for easy tracks such as Goodwood and Epsom. Warwick wouldn't be the most taxing of tracks and I think this will play to his strengths. He struggles to win but isn't off a bad mark and the cheekpieces are on for the first time today. He was likely to need his first run back and found himself too far behind over the lightning 5f at Epsom next time out. You had to be on the pace and he did some of the best work from the back in the field. The visor didn't work at Windsor last time over 6f on soft and I think the easier conditions today with the cheekpieces replacing the visor can see him go close. 3.30 Newcastle - 4pts win John Forbes @ 7/2 (Bet365) This 2 miles is going to be a tough test on heavy ground today at Newcastle so I'm quite happy to be on a horse who I know acts over c&d and relishes give in the ground. Although Brian Ellison's runner is now 10 years of age, he proved he could still be winning races when staying on over a sharp 1m4f at Catterick last time. That isn't his game at that sort of track and he'll be seen to much greater effect today I think. He's dropped down to a winning mark (over c&d) and he just looks sure to relish the conditions today. Boss's Destination has been disappointing the last twice and Boston Blue has to prove he stays this far on heavy ground. The percentage call is definitely with the favourite here and I'll be surprised if he doesn't go extremely close at the very least. 4.10 Warwick - 2pts win Frosty Secret @ 16/1 (Bet365) Jane Chapple-Hyam has a handicap debutant in here and I find her very interesting now she has a mark and goes to war in this sphere. She showed plenty of promise in two maidens last year and it seems to me that her only spin this campaign was to get a mark under an inexperienced pilot. Lewis Walsh is replaced by Richard Hughes (6-18 for yard) and that is a signal of intent in my eyes. She was only beaten 2 1/2l on debut when green and staying on over 7f and was pitched into a Newmarket maiden next time out where she ran in behind the now very talented Starscope. She was beaten just over 8l but it obviously wasn't a bad maiden and it was going to be difficult to seriously compete. Now she's running off a mark of 65 she should be a great deal more competitive and I'm not too concerned about the way she was beaten at Nottingham recently. It was her final run before qualifying for a mark and I expect to see much more now. She's also stepped up in trip to 1m2f - which should suit on pedigree - and I can see her running a big race now. nice winner again :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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