Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June

[BillyHills]

All selections and discussion in here please Royal Ascot Day Four - Friday 22nd June 2012 Time Race Class Dist. 14.30 The Albany Stakes Group 3 6f 15.05 The King Edward VII Stakes Group 2 1m4f 15.50 The Coronation Stakes Group 1 1m 16.25 The Wolferton Rated Stakes Listed 1m2f 17.00 The Queen's Vase Stakes Group 3 2m 17.35 The Buckingham Palace Stakes Handicap 7f

[BillyHills]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June 230 Ascot: Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (6f) Difficult opener and with so many potential improvers its impossible to be confident about any of them. The angle on the draw seems a good place to start and I’m happy to row in with the favourite Newfangled, she was very impressive on debut and will be hard to beat if she has improved any. As an alternative Agent Allison is as good as any, she was heavily backed when winning her debut and is well regarded by a shrewd trainer. Selections: 2pts Newfangled 5/2 Boylesports 1pt Agent Allison 7/1 Blue Square Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting--newfangled-to-get-favourite-backers-off-to-good-start-on-day-four-at-ascot

[BillyHills]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June 5.00 Ascot: Queen’s Vase (Group 3) (2m) If the rain continues at Ascot this will be a real test for some of these and we could see them coming home at big intervals. My two against the field are Minimize Risk and Perennial. Both have been running in good company and both look likely to stay this new trip. The O’Brien horse will be a danger but looks a poor price on what he has achieved to me. Selections; 2pts Minimize Risk 13/2 Paddy Power 1pt Perennial 9/1 Betfred Full Preview http://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting--stamina-test-of-queens-vase-to-suit-minimize-risk-at-ascot

[BillyHills]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June 5.35 Ascot: Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (7f) Desperate race for many reasons and loads in with a chance on their best form, of those well drawn I do like the look of Brian Ellison’s runner Global Village, the ground seems to have come right for him and must go close despite the weight rise. Of those drawn on the far side I like Tariq Too, a much improved horse and looks sure to run his usual solid race from stall 9. Selections; 1pt Global Village 11/1 Betfred 1pt EW Tariq Too 16/1 William Hill Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting--tariq-too-looks-good-value-in-tricky-finale-at-ascot

[beaker1]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June 2.30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) Mick Channon has trained 3 of the last 9 winners; Richard Hannon & Jeremy Noseda 2 Only 3 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 6f 6 of the last 10 winners had been making their second start; the remainder their third 6 of the last 10 winners were successful last time 2 of the last 10 winners had been favourite but there has been 6 winners between 10/1 & 50/1 The 2yo races at this year’s Royal meeting aren’t getting any easier with 19 runners set to go to post in the Albany, won last year by Mick Channon’s Samitar. So his runner this year, Sandreamer is as good a starting point as any, particularly as she was so impressive when winning a decent looking Newmarket maiden. The runner-up and 4th horses that day both won next time out so the form does have a strong look to it. There wasn’t much pace in the race but she picked up in the shape of a smart filly 2f out to quickly put the race to bed. Ed Dunlop won this race in 2009 and so his recent Yarmouth winner Amazonas warrants respect. Her dam was a 6f juvenile winner and she looked to have inherited her mother’s speed. When asked to quicken up and go and win her race she did it in a thoroughly professional manner, looking as if she had more to offer if asked the question. It was only a ordinary maiden at Pontefract but Agent Allison produced a very likeable performance when winning by 7L. Apparently, she had been working very well at home and that was evident as she stretched clear in the style of a useful filly, even though she was conceding weight to each of her 9 rivals. She handled the soft ground well that day but connections feel she would be even better on a sounder surface. But there was also a lot to like about the performance of NEWFANGLED who overturned a well-backed favourite over 6f at Newmarket a fortnight ago. Thoroughly professional, she jumped well, travelled smoothly throughout before going to win her race under nothing more than a hands and heels ride from William Buick. Dawn Approach gave New Approach his first Royal winner earlier in the week and Princess Haya’s filly could give him his second. 3.05 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) 10 of the last 12 winners had yet to win over 1m4f 10 of the last 12 winners had won earlier in the season 9 of the last 12 winners had run in a Derby Trial; 3 had won Only 3 of the last 12 winners had won at Listed or Group level Only 2 of the last 12 winners had run in the Derby The Ascot Derby is a consolation race for those animals which were unable to make it to Epsom or perhaps weren’t considered good enough for the big one. The trends suggest that those horses which ran well in defeat in the Derby normally struggle here. If that proves to be the case again, Astrology and Thought Worthy are opposable. That is a tough call to make as both ran well, finishing 3rd and 4th respectively at Epsom. Many will be jumping on the NOBLE MISSION bandwagon as he has looked the type to appreciate the step up in trip. Frankel’s full-brother started the season well with a simple maiden victory before following up in workmanlike style in the Listed Newmarket Stakes. A fortnight later he returned to Newmarket for the King Charles II Stakes which produced a thrilling finish with a blanket covering the first four, Thought Worthy, Noble Mission, Rugged Cross and Farhaan. Of course, that race is over 2f shorter than this race tomorrow so there is no guarantee that the form will be upheld. Purely on form, Thought Worthy looks to be John Gosden’s best chance yet William Buick rides the recent maiden winner Shantaram. That is perhaps a tad unfair to call him a just a maiden winner as prior to that he had run Main Sequence to under 1L in the Lingfield Derby Trial and prior to that only been beaten a nose by Model Pupil in a Newmarket maiden. He will undoubtedly get further as the season wears on and that may see him in with a shout here. The one worry is the ground. He hated the soft ground when winning his maiden and with the amount of rain around at the moment, it might just be too soft for him tomorrow. So, overall I am a fan of Thought Worthy but as no placed horse from Epsom has won this race for three decades I am prepared to side with the horse he narrowly beat at Newmarket . 3.50 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1) All of the last 12 winners had run in at least one 1000 Guineas 7 of the last 12 winners had won a race as a three-year-old 7 of the last 12 winners were sent off favourite; all in the top four 5 of the last 12 winners had been successful last time out The consensus did appear to be that Homecoming Queen’s 1000 Guineas win was a bit of a fluke and so it proved when she was beaten 7L when only 4th in the Irish equivalent. The ground was markedly quicker at the Curragh and it looks like she needs plenty of cut to be seen at her best. If it keeps raining, she might just get it. Samitar was the filly to benefit at the Curragh. She had enjoyed a good juvenile season but just came up short when it mattered. She started this year with 2 front-running defeats in a sales race at Newmarket and then in the French 1,000 Guineas. She seemed to appreciate not only the quicker ground at the Curragh but also being ridden more patiently as she ran out a convincing winner. My initial thoughts were that the form was a little suspect with the runner-up going off at 33-1 and the 3rd-placed horse 25-1 but I am not so sure now after Ishvana beat the colts in Wednesday’s Jersey. If she gets good ground or quicker she should go close. But Mick Channon also has LAUGH OUT LOUD in the race. She improved in leaps and bounds on her first 3 starts on the AW before running okay in the 1000 Guineas, perhaps a little too keen for her win good. She had been used to running at Wolverhampton and Kempton and Newmarket’s expanse can sometimes do that to a lightly-raced filly. She made no mistake when beating Electrelane in the Michael Seely at York and the runner-up franked the form when winning the German 1,000 Guineas, although she did let it down with a very below par effort in Wednesday’s Sandringham. Channon’s filly looked even more impressive in winning the Gr2 Prix Sandringham at Chantilly, proving that she can handle some cut although there can be little doubt that she is a better filly on a faster surface. The dark-horse could be Fallen For You, who on a line through Lyric Of Light last season doesn’t have a lot to find with Samitar. She won on her reappearance as she was expected to at Kempton at the start of May but then ran no sort of a race when only 6th behind Chachamaidee in a Lingfield Gr3. However, she was taking on older and much more experienced fillies that day and that may have had a little to do with it, likewise the drop down to 7f as they did go a good gallop. This does require a big improvement from Gosden’s filly but William Buick must think she is capable of it otherwise he could have ridden Starscope who was runner-up in the 1000 Guineas. 4.25 – Wolferton Handicap (Listed) 10 of the last 12 winners had not raced more than twice that season 10 of the last 12 winners were 4yos ; one 5yo, one 7yo Only 1 winning favourite in the last 11 years; 7 between 10/1 & 25/1 Sir Michael Stoute & the late Michael Jarvis have both won 2 renewals since 2004 Beachfire defends the title that he won last year but Gatewood looks to be Gosden’s best hope of back-to-backs victories. After a decent season last term, he absolutely sloshed up in a competitive York handicap on his reappearance and confirmed that was no fluke when following up at Epsom on Oaks Day. He is now 12lb higher than when recording the first of those wins but he has looked a very progressive colt, who is probably Listed class at worst. The only slight downside is that I can see him being sent off favourite and favourites don’t have the best of records in this race. The interesting runner is Roger Varian’s MIJHAAR who doesn’t have many miles on the clock and it is possible that we haven’t seen the best of him. He won his maiden last season in very impressive fashion before finishing a respectable 4th behind Nathaniel in the King Edward VII Stakes here. He followed that with a narrow defeat back over 10f at Newmarket and that was it for the season. He made his reappearance over a mile in the Listed Hambleton Stakes at York when he wasn’t beaten far in 3rd behind Fury and Prince Of Johanne who franked the form here on Wednesday. That effort will have taken some of the fizz out of him so there should me much more to come tomorrow when he is upped in trip. French Navy looked a very progressive colt when winning at Newmarket and Goodwood last season but then failed to build on that when beaten in the Prix Dollar and St Simon Stakes. Ten furlongs does look to be his ideal trip, especially on rain-softened ground, so it wouldn’t surprise to see him bounce back. Qaraaba has done nothing but improve this season and know finds herself 25lb higher than when winning at Kempton in March. Quite how much further she can improve is open to debate but there can be little doubt that she will be suited to the trip and ground. The American horse Hyper has some impressive form figures, winning each of his last 5 starts. I can’t claim to know much about him but all of his wins in the states have come on firm ground so his chance won’t be helped if it keeps raining. 5.00 – Queen’s Vase (Group 3) 10 of the last 12 winners had made six starts or less 10 of the last 12 winners achieved a top three finish last time An official rating of 96 is a minimum requirement; 8 rated 100+ 10 of the last 12 winners came from the first three in the betting 9 of the last 12 winners had been successful as juveniles Mark Johnston has won 6 of the last 11 renewals: Saeed bin Suroor & Aidan O’Brien 2 each 3 of the last 12 winners had run in the Lingfield Derby Trial What is the world coming to? The Queen’s Vase without a Mark Johnston-trained runner in the line up. It is probably fair to say that Athens isn’t near the top of the pecking order at Ballydoyle but he has some respectable form in the bag, beaten by some decent animals (Rugged Cross, Akeed Mofeed & David Livingston) as a juvenile and he hasn’t fared too badly this term. He ran okay behind Light Heavy and ran into a potentially very smart filly, Speaking Of Which, at the Curragh last time. As with all of the runners tomorrow, we have no idea on whether he will get this 2m trip but on breeding, he has a chance. But a slight preference is for MINIMISE RISK who is a half-brother to the Mark Johnston trained Darasim, who won the Gr2 Goodwood Cup and was well at home over marathon distances. Andrew Balding’s colt made a pleasing debut at Doncaster before surviving a stewards’ enquiry at Newbury next time. He then ran pretty flat in the Chester Vase, the very soft ground being the excuse. He did go to Epsom for the Derby, where I thought he ran okay. He didn’t really handle the track but stuck to the task nicely enough without really being knocked around by Jamie Spencer. As long as the ground isn’t too soft, this Galileo colt should relish the step up in trip and could therefore take plenty of beating. Sir Michael Stoute had a terrible season last year by his high standards but his horses do seem to be getting back on track this term. Estimate finished down the field behind Esentepe on her sole start last season but was off the mark on her reappearance at Salisbury in fine style. The step up to 1m4f was clearly needed as she stayed on strongly for a comfortable success. She looked that day as if she would get further and her pedigree supports that, being by Monsun out of a Darshaan mare and a half-sister to a quintet of classy stayers which includes Enzeli, Ebadiyla and Edabiya. Gut feelings can be a dangerous thing, but I can’t help but think the Queen will have a winner at the Royal Meeting in her Diamond Jubilee year and this filly might just be the one to do it. 5.35 – Buckingham Palace Handicap No winning favourites in 11 years; 8/1 the shortest priced winner 5 of the last 10 winners were aged four or five 7 of the last 10 winners had yet to win a race that season 5 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 92 or less A 30-runner handicap isn’t the easiest ‘get out stakes’ particularly when it is one of the weaker races from a trends point of view. There are a whole host of these that are capable of landing this prize, none more so that PRIMAEVAL. Fanshawe normally chips in which a winner or two at Royal Ascot and this Pivotal gelding will surely be there or thereabouts. Personally, I think he is a real 7f specialist and one that isn’t too badly handicapped despite winning his last 2 starts. He has won at Kempton off 99 & 100 in the recent past but back on turf he was only rated 92 ahead of his easy victory at Goodwood. The handicapper has put him up to 100, which is obviously still a winning mark. I would never go overboard in a race like this as anything can happen in running but I think he could quite easily be much better than a handicapper. Global Village will surely serve it up to him after he won the Victory Cup over course and distance last month. Brian Ellison’s gelding didn’t make the racecourse until he was 4 but he has gradually progressed into a nice 7f type. He was considered a bit of an AW specialist as 8 of his 10 wins have come on polytrack or fibresand but I think the fact that in the last couple of months he has won on the turf at Leicester and Ascot mean that can no longer be the case. The course and distance winning Lightning Cloud proved highly progressive last season and picked up where he left off in the Victoria Cup, beaten just over 3L in 5th. It was a solid reappearance and if he can build on that, off the same mark, he has to be given every chance. Tariq Too showed plenty of promise when finishing 9th in the Victoria Cup and he confirmed that when a well-supported winner at Doncaster 13 days ago. The handicapper has put him up 7lb as a result but he has looked very progressive this season and so it may not be enough to stop him running a big race. Noble Citizen isn’t the easiest horse to win with but he ran okay at Goodwood last time behind Primaeval and could run into the minor places at a decent price.

[robertob]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June 17.35 Ascot: Mia's Boy EW (5 places) @ 28/1 Bet365 Think Mia's Boy could run a big race drawn beside the fron-running The Rectifier. His turf mark hasn't been that low since he won a Handicap Listed race at York in 2008. Well, he is already 8 years old but looks still competitive and full of enthusiasm. He ran a super race at Lingfield ten days ago, finishing second just half a lengths beaten. He has won on all kinds of ground so I assume that the soft ground at Epsom won't really bother him. He has been beaten a long way in two starts on turf this year but that were strong Handicaps and he raced from higher marks. Down to a mark off 94 and with a return to form as seen at Lingfield recently I think he has a chance to run very well.

[Gavlar17]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June 14:30 Ascot - Albany Group Stakes, 6f Class 1 Selection: Sendmylovetorose Struggling to pick anything which has ended up in the winners enclosure so far this week (only winning selections were Frankel and So You Think, hardly any serious money makers lol) so I've decided to strip it back to basics. If I'm being honest, I'm more or less stil a novice in this sport and I think I've been trying to over complicate things unnecessarily of late. There are 9 horses contesting this race which won last time out so really, I wouldn't be surprised by anything which goes on to win this. Anyway - back to basics, starting with the ground. We finished today running on good to soft ground and having checked the forecast there is further rain predicted overnight and throughout tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Chances are the ground will be fully soft tomorrow. I've looked to identify all horses which have form on the current going and are also proven over the 6f tomorrow (although the stats above indicate the distance hasn't been a huge factor in the past). The three I've been left with afterwards are Sendmylovetorose, Newfangled and All On Red. The one I like the most out of the three is Sendmylovetorose who ran away by 5 and 1/2 lengths on here racecourse bow, losing her maiden tag at the first time of asking. Hopefully there will be further improvement to come tomorrow. Ive also just noticed Beaker1s stats above (thanks mate) and Sendmylovetorose falls into three of the four categories identified so signs are pretty good. The 16s available at Ladbrokes this evening seems a very good price for such a open race in which anything could really win it. Bet 2pts @ 16/1 BOG with Ladbrokes :hope

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June Not much pace in the Buckingham Palace Stakes is there. I know in a 30 runner field you expect a few to push on who might not usually, but for guaranteed pace i can see only Bronze Prince? Where do people think the best place to be is now? Nobody seems to have taken a punt down the stands rail, so with Bronze Prince drawn low im inclined to favour the far side. Weather looks terrible tomorrow, gunna be very soft?

[jtw1]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June IMHO another hundred yards and we would had another winner ;) 4.25 - Wolferton Handicap - Listed - 1m2f - 4yo+ ----------------------------------------------- 9/9 had ran no later than May 14th 8/9 had last ran at a Grade 1 course 8/9 were 4yo's 6/9 had won a Class 2 , one had won at Listed grade , one had been 2nd in a Listed race and the other had won a Class 3. 6/9 had ran no more than 8 times . Only 1 fav has won in 9 runnings. I'm going to start with that age stat which when given a closer look is quite a significant pointer as the split between 4yo's and those 5yo+ runners is exactly 50/50 with 75 4yo's and 75 older runners having taken their chance but no less than 8 four year olds have been successful. Remove RETRIEVE , BEACHFIRE , KINGS GAMBIT , CON ARTIST , OTTOMAN EMPIRE , QARAABA , HYPER , BLACK SPIRIT , SIRVINO and OPERA GAL. FRENCH NAVY is making his seasonal debut . With 6 winning after only at least 8 previous runs , it should hopefully pay to concentrate on those so remove JUNOOB who has ran 14 times and on top of that 4 of his 5 career wins have been on the AW. MIJHAAR has been running in Listed and G2 company but previous winners seem to be one's who are taking a step up rather than going down a grade or 2. Of the 3 left , DANDANA ran and won at lowly Redcar LTO but on top of that his 3 wins have all been on G/F ground , something it definately won't be tomorrow. GATEWOOD will contest favouritism and certainly has done little wrong so far , winning his 2 races this season , both Cl2's over the 10f. Hard to say if the G/S will suit as he has yet to encounter it , he has future entries in G2 and 3 events so i imagine he's quite highly thought off. KIRTHILL is the other to be considered , a winner over 10f and , importantly , on G/S he does however appear to be the yards 2nd string as Fallon is on DANDANA but Ryan Moore has a 39% [9/23] strike-rate for Cumani over the past 5 season's so it may have been a difficult decision for Fallon to make as the booking of Moore is definately a positive for the stable. hHe was disapointing LTO but was slowly into his stride and was noted as 'keeping on' when 9th of 14 but that was his seasonal debut so allowances can be made. Summary - The future entries of GATEWOOD show the potential J Gosden's runner has and with that in mind i make him the main selection with a slight concern about the going but as he has yet to race on an easy surface he has to be given the benefit of the doubt . The odds on offer for KIRTHILL ensures a 'saver'. Stake 8pts @ 7/2 bog GATEWOOD Stake 2pts @ 14/1 bog KIRTHILL

[Gavlar17]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June 15:05 Ascot - King Edward VII Stakes, 12f Class 1 Selection: Shantaram Seven runners go to post for this interesting affair. I'm actually really looking forward to this race! Astrology is looking like she will go I'm as favourite due to her 3rd in the Derby. She was edged out in the final furlong that day and ended up going down 5 lengths to the incredible Camelot. She was unfortunate not to hang onto second place and has been subsequently raised 2lbs for that run. There is form which shows she should handle the cut in th ground and should possibly handle they distance a little better this time and for me is a justified favourite. However, I hope she doesn't turn up as I've elected for another one in this race. Farhaan hasn't raced with cut in the ground and hasn't raced as far as this previously (without looking like the extra 2f will suit!) and I will therefore give her a swerve. Similar reasons also ruled out Initiator, as both previous races were over shorter distances and on much firmer ground. This then leaves us with Noble Mission, Shantaram, Thomas Chippendale and Thought Worthy. Noble Mission looks although the extra 2f will suit and I expect the form to be reversed with Thought Worthy who beat the former by a neck back in mid May. In my opinion, I think the further distance will suit NM much more than TW. Tom Queally has elected to ride Noble Mission tomorrow which indicates connections fancy her rather than Thomas Chippendale Who has failed to win higher than a class 3 race. Lastly, we arrive at the selection, Shantaram. William Buick has elected to ride the selection rather than Thought Worthy (which is shorter in the betting market) which is quite significant. Shantaram has raced 4 times thus far which have resulted in three 2nd and most recently a victory. Last time out, she lost her maiden tag over today's distance in a maiden race at Newmarket where there was plenty of give in the ground. Looking two races back, Shantaram was 3/4 of a length behind Main Sequence who has since finished 5 lengths ahead of today's fav, Astrology, in the Derby. That form is now looking pretty strong and the 8/1 on offer from Ladbrokes is huge. BetVictor have her at 11/2! Bet 2pts @ 8/1 BOG with Ladbrokes :hope

[Gavlar17]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June Just noticed that Richard Hughes rides Castles In The Air for Richard Fahey in the 17:35 today. As far as I could see, he hasn't ridden for Fahey in recent times and seems to be quite a significant booking. I also just read Richard Fahey's column on SportingLife.com and he seems pretty sweet on her chances:

Castles In The Air runs in the Buckingham Palace Stakes. I'm a fraction worried if it keeps raining as his best form is on fast ground but for some reason he's been working exceptionally well recently, I'm very happy with him and on good ground I'd be more confident. As long as it doesn't get heavy he'll take his chance.

Quite a strong statement and worth a nibble at 25/1 with PaddyPower.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June 17:35 Ascot Global Village is my idea of the winner of this race as he ticks a lot of the right boxes for me. Since joining Brian Ellison's yard this horse has had a bit of a revelation having only won 2 races from 19 previously he has won 5 races in 10 for his new yard and hass upped 31lbs in under a year. He is also a course and distance winner having won here last month in the Victoria Cup off a mark of 88. The rider dropped the whip that day yet he still won the race by three quarters of a length. This was his only appearance at this course to date. Other factors that have brought my attention to this horse is the fact he has a record of 131 in soft ground which it looks set to be tomorrow with the weather so he will handle the conditions. In fields of 18 or more runners he has finished 531 which shows he can handle the big fields. Fallon is back on board today and he has previously won on board once from two rides. The form of the race on his penultimate start has also worked out quite well, he finished 3rd in the Spring Cup at Newbury The 5th placed horse has went on to win in handicap company since and the second placed horse has actually won up in class at listed level since. This is by no means an easy race but this horse has some decent form in the book, especially for Brian Ellison and he could possibly be a group horse yet. 2pts E/W Global Village @ 10/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[Edberg]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June 5.00 Royal Ascot QUEEN'S VASE YAZDI 3pts win @ 6/1 bog (Ladbrokes) Yazdi and Estimate are the only two runners of this field who've had just two races and are therefore by far the least exposed of them all. Of course they are both far from the top rated horses in this race at the moment (90 for the colt and 86 for the Queen's filly who gets a useful 3lb allowance in this race). Yazdi impressed me more than Estimate and the form of the two yards pushes more and more towards the colt whose owner won the St James's Palace Stakes three days ago here at Royal Ascot for the same trainer. This race usually goes to short priced favourite (favourites won 3 of the last 4 editions and no horse priced higher than 7/1 won in the last 10 years) and the last 10 editions have gone 5 times to Mark Johnston-trained horses, 2 to Aidan O'Brien's, 2 to Saeed Bin Suroor's and 1 to Sir Michael Stoute's. Today's edition could be more testing than usual with the rain making conditions way softer than good and for what I've seen the Brian Meehan-trained colt should love both the ground (won on good to soft last time out over 1m4f at Thirsk in impressive style and is by Galileo) and the step up in trip (looks a strong stayer in the making). Market didn't take any direction yet and only Athens is a bit shorter than these two at the moment but I see Yazdi a big improver over this distance and Frankie Dettori on board isn't a bad news.

[Lars]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June Although the form of his maiden is hardly spellbinding and he’s a little bit to find on the figures with some of these, YAZDI (17:00) looks set for a big run in a race where they’ll be an emphasis on stamina, given 1m4f looked inadequate for him when winning last time out. The booking of Frankie Dettori for Brian Meehan is interesting in itself and with the ground unlikely to be an issue, I think he should be even shorter than his current single-figure price. Twice raced, not seen as a juvenile and making his debut over 10f at Newmarket. Yazdi finished a 4 length third, looking woefully outpaced through most of the contest before staying on really nicely under considerate enough handling. That race has worked out well with the winner narrowly touched off in the Chester Vase, the runner-up is an 8/1 chance for the earlier King Edward VII whilst the 5^th is likely to be a solid handicapper rated in the 90’s before too long. It was a decent contest and the market knew this for Yazdi’s last outing, sent off a 2/5 chance. That was on softer ground and he yet again shaped as if further would suit, taking a little while to get into top gear but eventually pulling seven lengths clear. That race wasn’t a great one but it was the manner in victory which was more taking, especially for a 2 mile contest for three year-olds. He looks obviously suited to such a stamina test having taken his time to fully accelerate over 1m4f and a stamina test looks the best port of call (has some winners over fences in his bloodline) right now and it is probably a decent time to catch him in these sorts of races, especially facing rivals who might not handle the distance quite yet. Frankie Dettori is quite a rare booking for the yard in recent times and he has a fair 9/46 record since the beginning of 2009, he’s is certainly more positive than the usual Meehan affair of Shane Kelly or Martin Dwyer. The ground isn’t an issue, this looks a weak contest and Yazdi looks ideally suited for the step up in trip. He should be closer to the 7/2 mark than his current price and I have him as a clear favourite in this race. There’s such an obvious bet for this wide-open (on paper) handicap in my view that it beggars belief that it isn’t much shorter. DECENT FELLA (17:35) has plenty in his favour today, not least that the 265 day absence should be a help rather than a hindrance and this race looks to have been the plan all along, so he’s more than capable of playing a big part in a race in which he went very close in last year. The selection runs all his best races fresh, seen when landing a very competitive Newmarket handicap on his reappearance effort last year. That race has thrown up many horses who’ve proved that they are top handicappers and it just shows that the selection is perfectly capable of running a huge race on seasonal debut. He wasn’t quite seen to best effect in subsequent starts last year, although his run in last year’s renewal gives us plenty of hope that he’ll go even better this time around. He travelled supremely well on the soft ground but could only manage 4^th, 1.5 lengths behind the winner. That was off a 6lbs lower mark but there’s plenty to suggest that Decent Fella is continuing to improving, his win at Goodwood (again, coming off a short absence) from a rating of 93 (some fair sorts in behind) providing evidence of this. Although showing little on his next start, the winter break should have done him good and as emphasised throughout, there should be little to fear regarding the absence. Andrew Balding is a dab hand at getting them fit regardless and all looks set for a big run today. There should be no issues regarding ground, the track and the fact that he’s had a breathing operation can only help (does sometime finish his races off a little tamely). He should be closer to the 9/1 mark in my book and with the draw in 28 looking ideal, it’s only the fact that it’s traditionally such a competitive race that is stopping me from getting seriously involved. The usual stakes will suffice. Bets 17:00 Ascot – Yazdi; 2pts @ 6/1 Stan James 17:35 Ascot – Decent Fella; 2pts @ 20/1 Bet365, BetVictor (bog)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June Going a bit mad today. Seems like a lot of my fancied runners are going on the same day. Short write-ups, therefore: 2.30 Ascot - 2pts win The Gold Cheongsam @ 10/1 (Hills) Newfangled looks the one to beat for John Gosden but in a race as competitive as this, I couldn't be taking 9/4 about her and I'm actually fairly sweet on the chances of Jeremy Noseda's runner in here. Although he's far from inadequate at getting horses ready first time up I always think they improve plenty for the run and this filly comes into this race off the back of just the single start. That was against the colts and the eventual winner - trained by Richard Hannon - was possibly just a little bit more forward. However, The Gold Cheongsam was obviously showing something at home to be sent off the 2/1 favourite but she just looked in need of the experience. She wasn't the quickest away, ran green throughout and faded in the last 50 yards or so. She came with a nice looking challenge but just couldn't quicken at the end but she will come on a huge amount for that I reckon. Although the winner, Mister Marc, wasn't anything special yesterday, his 2nd to Dawn Approach reads well, and a subsequent winner passed my selection at the death to finish 2nd. Buick wasn't too hard on her in the closing stages and from a possibly good draw in stall 1, and Frankie Dettori on board, I envisage a very bold showing with the ground likely to suit and sufficient stamina on her dam's side which will help her get home in these testing conditions. 3.05 Ascot - 2pts win Thought Worthy @ 7/1 (VC) Astrology is a worthy favourite for this but I just think John Gosden's colt wasn't too far behind him in the Derby at Epsom to suggest the form could be reversed when he gets conditions his way. He's always looked more like a Leger type than a Derby horse given he clearly stays well but just lacks the gears, and with this set to be a sterner test than it was at Epsom, that should suit him a lot better. With the ground on the round course likely to be very soft today, you're going to need to be on a horse with plenty of stamina. Although the O'Brien horse isn't short of that, he is quite a speedy type as well and I'm just not totally convinced this is going to suit him quite as much. Thought Worthy should have no problem getting home on his form - a rallying victory over Noble Mission over 10f at Newmarket prior to the Derby showed his stamina and guts, and he clearly goes fine on soft ground, as seen when a clear 2nd to Imperial Monarch in the Derby trial at Sandown. The winner was very unlucky in the French Derby so the form was franked somewhat, and I'm just not convinced he should be quite as big as he is in the betting. Especially when you consider Frankel's brother is a 4/1 shot in here, and steps up in trip despite racing keenly over shorter. Again I'm banking on Dettori continuing from yesterday's Gold Cup win and he looks to have a live chance in the first two races here. 3.45 Ascot - 2pts win Starscope @ 10/1 (VC) It is a shame that Maybe does not run in this today, but it's a very intriguing affair and again I opt for one of the Gosden runners not chosen by William Buick! He admits that it's been very difficult choosing between mounts today and Jimmy Fortune has been riding my selection anyway so it isn't a great concern of mine. Starscope did well to win on debut last season and returned to action with a very sound 1l 4th in the Nell Gwyn - finishing well - over 7f there. The hood seems to help her and her 2nd in the 1000 Guineas was an excellent achievement. She was held up out the back so had no chance of getting near Homecoming Queen so it will be interesting to see the tactics of the race today. It seemed the natural thing to do to step her up in trip next time out but the 10f at Newbury saw her making her own running but she took a keen hold throughout and it was no surprise to see her falter late on there given the way she pulled. The front two are clearly nice animals, for all Momentary struggled yesterday, Shirocco Star has franked the form since, and the step back to a mile should really suit today, as would a strong pace to help her settle. She looks generally progressive and can get back on track today with conditions more ideal. 4.25 Ascot - 3pts win Mijhaar @ 4/1 (PP) I am a big fan of the mare Qaraaba but the dominance of the 4yos in this race makes her vulnerable and Roger Varian's runner fits the trends for this contest having been lightly raced this season. He also has a nice draw in stall 3 and should be spot on for this after a recent spin at York over a mile. He was an exciting horse last year and was a creditable 4th in the King Edward VII here last year when taking a keen hold over 1m4f. This trip probably is ideal for him and he backed up that run with a good 2nd to Fulgur at Newmarket on ground on the quick side. He travelled very well that day but just met one in the end. 1m2f in the mud is absolutely ideal for him and he will relish the rain that has come over the last 24-48 hours. It's made the round course testing and that's partially the reason why I'm siding with him over Gatewood - who does have to prove this ground suits. Mijhaar's reappearance effort over a mile at York was very encouraging. He looked like he'd play a big part until fading late on to be 3rd, but the form has been franked, with Fury running a sound race in a Group race in France since, and Prince Of Johanne winning the Hunt Cup on Wednesday. That run should set him up nicely for this and he's not off a bad mark I don't think. Conditions to suit and should go very well for a yard in form. 5.00 Ascot - 3pts win Estimate @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes) Stamina is going to be the name of the game here over the two miles on soft ground and this doesn't look a vintage renewal of the Queen's Vase. It's proven to be a race where you need to have staying power in the pedigree with a sire stamina index of 10+ crucial in finding the winner. By far the two more interesting runners in this race are down the bottom here in Yazdi and Estimate, but I just feel the Queen's runner could have that bit of quality and is sure to relish this step up in trip. She's got a lovely pedigree being by Motivator, out of a middle-distance listed winner (went on heavy) and is the half-sister to both an Ascot Gold Cup winner and an Irish Oaks winner. Therefore she's got plenty of stamina in her bloodlines and should have no problem with the conditions today. A mile on quick ground was never going to be ideal on debut when she was never nearer than at the finish but she was returned to action this year up at 1m4f and she stayed on strongly to score on good to soft ground. The 2nd and 3rd are rated in the 80s and the 4th competitive off a mark in the mid-70s in handicaps so it wasn't a terrible maiden and she should improve for the outing and for the step up in trip again today. She saw her race out strongly at Salisbury and there should be more to come on just her 3rd start. Although she is only rated 86 at present, I think she'll be up there with the rest of these in time and she can take a big step towards that today. 5.35 Ascot - 2pts win Eton Forever @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) The three at the head of the market here are drawn high or at least middle to high, but I'm not totally sure that's where you want to be on the rain-softened ground here now. It helped to be low in the Britannia and there looks to be sufficient pace on the far side for me to opt for a runner on that part of the track. I'm often wrong with this but I'll go with my gut and if the action is over there, I think I'm on a horse with a fine chance in Eton Forever. He dotted up in the Spring Mile at Doncaster in 2010 when well-treated and although he hasn't won since, he's been running well and this stiff 7f could prove ideal for him now. He was 5th of 28 in the Hunt Cup last season here so clearly handles the track and I think he has sufficient pace to make the 7f a good distance for him. He's gone sufficiently well off this mark to suggest he can win when things go right and he may well have won at Chester last time but for some horrific luck in running. He returned this season with a solid effort in the Lincoln to finish 5th but could only manage 8th of 10 last time out at the Cheshire track. This doesn't tell any of the story, though, as he travelled sweetly hunting up the front few but stumbled on the turn. Once Neil Callan had him balanced again he started to stay on really well between horses when the door slammed shut late on and he had to take a pull on him and ease him home. He would have gone very close that day and runs off the same mark here. Should be race fit for this now, we know he goes well in big fields, the yard are in form and fingers crossed he's on the right side.

[cpo]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June 2.30 Albany Stakes – The Gold Cheongsam 1.5pts EW @ 10/1 William Hill The favourite looks very strong in this race having routed her rivals at Newmarket by over 4 lengths on soft ground but I fancy the Jermey Noseda horse to give her a run for her money. The Gold Cheongsam made her debut at Goodwood where she went off a short priced favourite in a race won by Mister Marc. That horse didn’t exactly frank the form yesterday but the drop to 5f may not have suited him as his 2 previous runs had come over 6f. His 2^nd to Dawn Approach over in Ireland is clearly very good form with that one winning the other day at this meeting. The 2^nd horse in that Goodwood maiden was Kimberella who had the benefit of a run but won next time up at Doncaster to further frank the form. Looking back at the race The Gold Cheongsam didn’t get the clearest of runs and also didn’t look at ease on the track. She did well to finish a close 3^rd but I think there could be much more to come from her. Jeremy Noseda has a good record in this race and I would fancy this horse to be one of his better 2 year olds. Frankie Dettori will be buzzing after his win yesterday and he rides this track better than most. He has the best of the drawn in 1 and I would fancy him to bag the rail. Looking at yesterdays racing, it paid to be drawn low so hopefully it will the same today. This more conventional track will hopefully show my selection in a better light but she does have to show considerably more in order to get involved here. I don’t think that is out of the question and I fancy her to handle the ground being by Red Clubs. Plenty of his progeny have gone on soft ground so fingers crossed she handles it. 4.25 Wolferton Handicap – Retrieve 2pts EW @ 18/1 Bet365 This race arguably revolves around Gatewood who looks well ahead of his current mark but I fancy Retrieve to run well in this. I don’t see Gatewood having any problem with the ground but he is yet to show any form on soft ground having had every run on a sound surface. Retrieve on the other hand may have found conditions at Goodwood last time out too fast but still managed to finish a good 3rd. He had to be niggled along at several stages early on in the race, which suggests to me he wasn’t completely happy on the track or with the ground. All of his form over in Australia came on soft ground and even heavy at times. He is actually a group 3 winner on heavy ground and has gone close several times at group 1 level on testing ground. Conditions should be much more to his liking today and even though he is top weight here, I think he will run well. He has a good draw in 3 and again Frankie Dettori is on board. I think Saeed Bin Suroor’s horses are in form now with 3 winners and 2 seconds form his last 6 runners. Retrieve didn’t fire on his first 2 starts in the UK last year but showed much more on his reappearance at Lingfield when comfortably winning by over 4 lengths against a good field. Like I have already said, I don’t think he was happy on his next start at Goodwood and I fancy him to show his true colours today in what are ideal conditions. John Gosden did take this race last year and Gatewood looks his main hope this time around but Mijhaar looks a big threat as well. He looked in need of his reappearance at York but the form of that race has been franked. Others that could go well are Qaraaba who well very easily last time out in similar conditions and Danadana who was put up by Kieron Fallon earlier in the week as his best chance. 5.35 Buckingham Palace – Docofthebay 1.5pts EW @ 20/1 Bet365 Very tricky race to call as last year there was a strong bias to those drawn high. Striking Spirit did extremely well to finish where he did last year as he pulled several lengths clear of anything else drawn low. This year I don’t think we have had much evidence of a bias but I fancy those drawn low to do better in this. It will be a very interesting race as the top 3 in the betting are all drawn high but I think there are more prominent racers drawn low which will hopefully mean this is where the pace will be. The likes of The Rectifier, Eton Forever, Bronze Prince and sometimes Thunderball all like to race up with the pace and are all drawn low. This may well sit it up for something held up drawn low and I think Docofthebay has as good a chance as any. He finished a close up 5^th in this race last year off a 4lb higher mark so should be able to go close here. He comes into the race on the back of a solid run at Nottingham over 6f where he finished well to grab 3^rd. He handles soft ground and comes here in good form. The stable are struggling for winners but the their horses are running well at the moment. I don’t really think any trainers are thriving at the moment with the unpredictable weather conditions. This is typically a race that goes to an outsider and is a graveyard for favourites. If there is bias towards those drawn high then the one I like on the other side is the top-weight Spectacle Du Mars. He has been in good form over in France and probably wasn’t suited by the step back to 6f having had his 4 previous runs over 7f. He got outpaced last time out but finished well in the final furlong. Soft ground will be no problem to him so I think I will have a little saver on him. Docofthebay however looks solid enough and will hopefully run well.

[cpo]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June 3.45 Coronation Stakes – Cardigan 1.5pts EW @ 12/1 PaddyPower Probably a crazy one here but this horse has surely shown plenty at home for her very shrew trainer to put her in this race. Her only run came in a 6f maiden last year where she pulled clear with another horse and won well in the end. She has been off the track for 231 days but I have no doubts that she will be ready for this test. Willie Haggas has plenty of good fillies in the yard so he will know how good this horse is. She is bred to be much better at this distance and I am guessing she has progressed plenty since last year for her trainer to put her in this race. It doesn’t look the strongest of renewals as the current favourite disappointed last time out but should be much more at home on this ground. If she can repeat her freak performance in the 1000 Guineas then she is obviously going to be very tough to beat. Samitar looked very good last time out in the Irish equivalent and that form has been given a boost by Ishvana. The other Channon horse looks worth a try at this level but I fancy Cardigan to provide a shock in this. The Haggas horses have been running well this week and they finally got off the mark yesterday. He has a good record at the track so hopefully Cardigan can enhance that record by taking the Coronation,

[mowgli77]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June Ascot 3.05pm Shantaram has good formlines with Model Pupil and Main Sequence and is fancied if now able to battle to victory, has downed tools on occasions and been outbattled. I prefer Thomas Chippendale to Noble Mission despite it being 2nd string and expect a big run from that horse. http://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting--shantaram-and-thomas-chippendale-can-fight-out-the-finish-in-the-king-edward-vii-stakes Ascot 3.45pm Excellent race in prospect and really like the chances of Elusive Kate, would fancy it more if it had already had an opener. Samitar has had form franked by Ishvana and got the better of Homecoming Queen last time out. Fallen For You could be a big danger. http://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting--samitar-to-land-the-coronation-for-channon-on-day-4 Ascot 4.25pm If Gatewood goes on the ground it shouldn't be getting beaten but if it struggles on a softer surface then progressive types like Qaraaba and Mijhaar could take advantage. Good looking handicap and there will be a few future winners from this race. http://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting--gatewood-well-handicapped-to-win-the-wolferton

[CookieMonzter75]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June Newfangled could be special if the interview with William Buick is listened to in the right way. They also think the horse will come on tonnes for his debut, and he`ll love the soft ground. Bit short given the weather, but he really could be a class apart from todays opposition. Im not betting, but I do think it`ll win.

[CookieMonzter75]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June

Newfangled could be special if the interview with William Buick is listened to in the right way. They also think the horse will come on tonnes for his debut' date=' and he`ll love the soft ground. Bit short given the weather, but he really could be a class apart from todays opposition. Im not betting, but I do think it`ll win.[/quote'] Nearly as easy as Frankel and a much better price

[mowgli77]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June

Ascot 3.05pm Shantaram has good formlines with Model Pupil and Main Sequence and is fancied if now able to battle to victory, has downed tools on occasions and been outbattled. I prefer Thomas Chippendale to Noble Mission despite it being 2nd string and expect a big run from that horse. http://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting--shantaram-and-thomas-chippendale-can-fight-out-the-finish-in-the-king-edward-vii-stakes

Thomas Chippendale looks to be the 2^nd string for Henry Cecil and Johnny Murtagh gets the ride today. It has won a maiden and a class 3 handicap from 4 races and the win last time out saw it running on strongly over 10f and winning on soft ground. It is now rated 96 and steps up an extra 2f and although the poor run at Newbury when 5^th is a slight concern I think this could run a big race.

I can see Henry Cecil getting the 1^st two home here and feel Thomas Chippendale might not have been fully fit first time out. It was priced up with just PaddyPower earlier at 10-1 but is already 8’s with that firm

Thomas Chippendale won well, looked to me like it was inconvenienced by rivals hanging towards it but has come on a bundle and won going away once it found its stride again towards the end of the race. I'm guessing the ground put them off running Shantaram, I'll be keeping an eye outfor that one too when it runs again. :ok

[CookieMonzter75]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June Well done ;) I think lots of todays horses have been inconvenienced by the ground and id tread warily using this form as solid when we get better ground.

[mowgli77]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June

Well done ;) I think lots of todays horses have been inconvenienced by the ground and id tread warily using this form as solid when we get better ground.

I wonder how soft it is? I agree that some of the form looks a bit suspect but yesterday one of the jockeys said it wasn't as soft as they thought it would be. Weather doesn't look too bad there at the moment. Here in Bradford it's just rained for about 12 hrs and I'll be surprised if Ponty on Sunday isn't heavy/soft or even abandoned. The cars park on the golf course there and I can see plenty getting stuck in the grass. How quickly does Ascot go soft and how quickly does it dry out?

[mowgli77]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June

It could pay to find a progressive handicapper that looks well treated and the favourite, Gatewood looks exactly that type. It is priced at 7-2 with Boylesports and most other bookmakers and has won both races this season, coming from a long way back at Epsom to get up on the line quite cheekily and looks to have plenty in hand. It has gone up 7lb since that race but looked to have about a stone in hand and the handicapper might not have caught up with it yet.

Some of the lads on here mentioned just how much the horse had in hand in the jockey thread. I felt Buick gave it a good ride at Epsom to just nick the win after the horse broke badly and was having to make up ground from the back as he didn't panic and rush to get the horse prominent. What an excellent young jockey he is. Just got up to nick todays race too.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June Mijhaar deserves to win one of these soon. Will go up in the weights again though. Wasn't far off a hot pace but wasn't stopping at the finish - just got caught by the closers. Thought he had them cooked when he quickened on.

[mowgli77]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June

Mijhaar deserves to win one of these soon. Will go up in the weights again though. Wasn't far off a hot pace but wasn't stopping at the finish - just got caught by the closers. Thought he had them cooked when he quickened on.

I can see that picking up a nice listed or group 3 because it will keep going up in handicaps without winning. Was rated 102 today, will go up a few lb possibly like you say, maybe 105/106 rating. One to keep the right side of for sure. :ok