Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Did race handier today and looked a big threat at one point but drifted out to 33s and was undone by the race being set up for the closers and the quality of some progressive types.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.35 Newmarket - 2pts win Authorship @ 8/1 (VC) I am not put off by the fact this one wears the Godolphin white cap and has Silvestre De Sousa aboard as he still looks to have a bright future and De Sousa partnered him on debut when overcoming clear inexperience to get up on the line. He was meeting some runners with prior course experience and looked really green when pulling, losing his place and hanging. However, he managed to put a run together when switched wide late on and just snatched victory. He's got a nice pedigree and a Derby entry and I don't think a mark of 77 is past him at all with obvious improvement likely. He'll have learned plenty from that run and the two horses just behind him are fairly solid yardsticks rated in the low-mid 70s. Another horse making their debut there (4th) ran okay in a French listed event next time so there is some substance to the form and the more testing track should suit too this afternoon (bred to stay further). A sound pace looks likely in a field this large so he should get something to run at and I think he'll prove to be comfortably better than a mark of 77.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 7.45 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Berwin @ 8/1 (Bet365) Quite a competitive event, this, but that allows for a bit of value and I think Sylvester Kirk's runner will enjoy the return to the all-weather. She finished well to be 3rd on her first two starts (both on the polytrack) behind 87, 80 and 75 horses. She is rated 71 at present and didn't enjoy the soft turf twice after a very promising 2nd to Varnish (82-rated) on her seasonal return. She relished the better ground over 1m2f at Bath last time when 3rd once more but didn't have the run of the race. She was hampered early on which knocked her back and had to be held up well off the pace throughout. She was forced very wide into the final turn and just found herself too far behind. Showed she stays further but a solid gallop over this extended mile shouldn't be too bad on this surface. I think she'll likely be ridden more prominently this evening on the back of that run and that should see her competitive. A mark of 71 doesn't look beyond her when things drop right and she's got a decent draw today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 9.15 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Annelko @ 6/1 (VC) This horse seems to have enjoyed the switch into Michael Blake's hands having run well the last twice and arguably better than the bare result. He clearly needed the run after a year off the track before running a 4l 4th at Bath next time out. The ground on that occasion was just on the softer side of good and that wouldn't be ideal for him really with both of his career wins coming on good to firm. He suffered last time out at the same venue for being on a hot pace which saw him take up a clear advantage with 3f to race but got tired and eventually was beaten just over 9l. However, there was 7l back to the 5th-placed rival and it was a true test. He hit 2.36 in running before being mowed down with the first 3 and 5th horses being held up earlier in the contest. It was a quick time for a weak contest and if not going so mad up front this evening he should have a strong chance of seeing it out. Graham Lee is an interesting jockey booking and certainly a fine one and this isn't a fantastic race so I think he'll show up very well for much of the contest and fingers crossed he can hold on today off a 1lb lower mark than his last winning one.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps First busy day for a while today... 2.00 Haydock - 2pts win Ruacana @ 11/2 (Bet365) I personally think all the value in the race is with Michael Bell's runner with the favourite too short for all he was impressive at Kempton last time out. He's up in trip and on ground that is a complete unknown so it's hard to justify backing him at 5/2. There are no such doubts about my selection who is a soft ground winner and also stays this far no problem. I believe testing conditions over 1m6f will play right into his hands and can prove tough to beat. He's shown promise on all starts to date so it looks likely he'll run his race and his last three efforts have been especially encouraging. He was a staying on 2nd at Chester (beaten 1l) over this trip and on soft ground with the 3rd-placed finisher winning since and that wouldn't be his ideal track. His next effort at Ascot over shorter and on quicker ground reads very well with the form working out very well indeed and conditions wouldn't have been as taxing as he'd have liked. Although he should have enjoyed two miles on soft last time at Goodwood it didn't work out as the leader dominated from start to finish and although my selection challenged for 2nd he faded late on as if the return to 1m6f would help. I think he's a rock solid selection in here and think he should be more like a 4/1 shot so is worthy of a decent bet here. 2.30 Haydock - 2pts win Eightfold @ 9/2 (BlueSQ) The size of this field makes the favourite a very backable price in my book as I feel he's comfortably got the best chance in the race. Quite a few of these have something to prove whereas this ex-Richard Hannon horse should be getting his head back in front very shortly after a couple of good efforts since winning a 1m1f race at Lingfield. His best form has all come on rain-softened ground and he's subsequently proved his stamina for this trip. Although he was beaten 7 1/4l at Yarmouth two starts back, that came on quicker ground and the winner has won off 8lbs higher since (eased down). The runner-up also won its next two starts so my selection just bumped into a couple there. And he was unlucky last time over this trip at Chepstow. He finished very well having suffered from bad luck in running which left him with plenty to do. He ought to have won yet runs off just 1lb higher today and the ground is more in his favour. I like Dane O'Neill in the saddle (rides well here) and I'm very hopeful he'll get compensation today. 4.35 Newmarket - 1pt win Henry Allingham @ 8/1 (Bet365) Three year olds have a good record in this and I'm very interested in the Roger Varian-trained animal in this contest who has run consistently well of late and should enjoy this test. He's a horse who strikes me as not wanting electric ground so I was a bit surprised he ran as well as he did in 2nd at Sandown last time on a quick surface. His two wins have come on soft and the fibresand at Southwell so I think the good ground today will suit. It's hard to knock his form really (eased down to win on the all-weather when clear with a subsequent winner off 11lbs higher) and was unfortunate at Kempton on his penultimate run. His recent turf runs have come on quick ground and he also strikes me as a horse who should enjoy a stiffer finish. I think the components are there today with him being potentially nicely drawn in stall 25 and it's hard to see him not being there or thereabouts once more. 4.45 Haydock - 1pt win Amaze @ 14/1 (Bet365) On the face of it, Brian Ellison's runner looks harshly handicapped having been well beaten on his handicap debut, but that was a very competitive affair and it may be that it just came too soon after winning his maiden on his first start of 2012. He showed promise on debut at Hamilton when staying on into 4th in a race won by a horse who is now rated 90 before shaping as if the ground was too lively next time at Newcastle. A bow over hurdles didn't pay off and he was then off the track until this year. It is very plausible that he goes best fresh as his two best efforts have come on debut and first time up this season and he's had a three-month break now which hopefully can see him go forward again. There's nothing at all wrong with his maiden form as he beat a horse now rated 98 (unfortunate not to win very hot 3yo handicap at Ascot last time). That horse had the advantage of a run under his belt also. The soft ground can turn this into a slog which should suit my selection who is proven over further and he could well be overpriced I feel.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Henry Allingham makes sure of profit for the day although Amaze was only beaten 1/2l in 2nd. Would have been a nice winner.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.40 Newmarket - 1pt win Rewarded @ 20/1 (Bet365) Not a bet for the faint-hearted but James Toller's runner ought to have a good chance here so long as he's well positioned and gets the breaks necessary to land such a competitive and big-field handicap. A draw in stall 26 is probably not a bad place to be and he certainly has the form to figure. You can forgive him his run in a French Group 2 last time behind the classy Saint Baudolino and that would just have been a step too far for him although he wasn't disgraced. Prior to that he was tried over 1m5f when he just pulled too hard and didn't get home. This sort of test will be ideal for him I feel as a strongly-run affair over this far is spot on I feel. Prior to those runs he ran a cracker at Royal Ascot when 3rd in a Group 3 behind Energizer and Stipulate and on that form he'd have a big chance today. It naturally put his mark up a fair bit but he's an improving type who is a course winner and fingers crossed he can repeat the feat today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.25 Newmarket - 2pts win Angel Gabrial @ 8/1 (Bet365) I think the favourite is a touch short as the race at Goodwood last time favoured those held-up and I don't think it has worked out tremendously well. That allows a rock solid horse to be a nice price and he looks sure to go well again this afternoon. He doesn't know how to run a bad race and went well at Ascot last time in a very hot 3yo handicap. He was drawn wide and had to weave his way through up the straight. He was very far back and didn't get to run in a straight line too much. Kieron Fallon takes over from Ted Durcan today and he might not have quite as much to do today. This isn't quite as strong a race and he should get a nice pace to run at. He has rock solid form in the book and should go close again.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.30 Epsom - 1pt win Toughness Danon @ 25/1 (Hills) I feel Brendan Powell's runner is a tad overpriced in here as he's only just getting down to a reasonable mark having been given a stiff rating of 88 when initially moving to the UK. He showed much more off 71 a few starts later and four of his last five efforts haven't been too bad. Nothing came from off the pace when he was a never nearer 4th at Warwick before having a luckless passage at Leicester when beaten 3 1/2l. He would have gone a good deal closer with a clear run and is 2lbs lower today with a 5lb claimer on board. He's found the 1m6f and 1m5f (heavy ground) a little too taxing recently and he pulled too hard at Hamilton last time so the more speedy course here can suit and this trip is probably his ideal. He's a big price but I don't think he should be 25/1 so is worthy of a small bet.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.50 Bath - 2pts win Focail Maith @ 10/1 (Bet365) Got to be interested in Tim Pitt's runner here who is clearly in good heart based on his runs over clearly insufficient trips the last twice. He only joined this yard four starts back and having bombed out over hurdles he has run three good races back on the level. He had to race off a mark of 80 at Newmarket in a very stiff 0-95 race and was far from disgraced when beaten 5 1/2l by a now 98-rated rival and my selection now runs off top-weight in a 0-75 affair and he runs off 7lbs lower with a mark of 73. The last twice he has competed over 7f which is clearly not enough as he's a 1m3f winner and shown his best form over trips such as today's 1m2f. On both occasions he was right at the back of the field before coming home well and made it into 3rd at Brighton last time despite not having the clearest of passages. Two starts back he was partnered by an inexperienced rider who was never going to get him home over such a trip in a hot race and it's no surprise to me to see a little bit of support this morning back up to an ideal distance at a track which will suit. I still think he's much too big a price for all this is fairly competitive as he's in good form and two of his three wins have come in October. Fingers crossed he can add to that today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Made some promising headway turning in but I think he needs better ground over 1m2f.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.20 Nottingham - 1pt win Magic Destiny @ 9/1 (PP) The favourite is respected but I think the filly from the Burke yard will run another big race and fingers crossed can spoil the party. She's consistent and doesn't usually run bad races and I think she'll improve for the softer ground today having raced on a quick surface last time in a decent race which clocked a good time. My selection didn't have the clearest of passages but it made little difference as she couldn't pick up the leaders once in the clear with the ground as it was. I think she needs some give to be seen to her best - as it was when winning her two previous starts (form looks reasonably solid). It was a decent event that she ran in last time and she ran off a mark of 80 but Martin Harley replaced the 3lb claimer which essentially made her 5lbs higher than her victory two starts back. Michael Metcalfe is back on board today to ease the burden and she shouldn't be far away. 4.40 Salisbury - 2pts win Love Tatoo @ 13/2 (Bet365) The favourite looks well worth taking on to me here having been beaten in a pretty weak affair at Lingfield last time out and I'd rather side with a runner who competed well in a stronger race at Sandown last time out on handicap debut. Andrew Balding's horse finished 4l behind off a mark of 68 but there were some rock solid handicappers in there which was a 0-80 race. She's been dropped 3lbs for that effort and drops into a 0-65 today which must give her a fine chance of getting off the mark in her career. Her runs in maidens were also encouraging when staying on to be 3rd on each occasion behind some decent types. 105, 91 and 81 are the current ratings of the winners of the races so it was always going to be a stiff task to beat any of those off level weights and it suggests she must go well off a mark of 65 today. This is a considerably weaker bunch of runners and I'm confident she will go very well indeed this afternoon. 5.30 Nottingham - 2pts win Woody Bay @ 13/2 (Bet365) Although James Given's runner has to saddle top weight in this contest I don't think it's a particularly strong race and it's another event where I'm happy taking on the favourite up in trip and in a better race than it won last time out. My selection has had the run of the race in his last two maidens but they came over 7f and 1m at fairly easy tracks and he just got outpaced by one runner on both occasions. His conqueror two starts ago at York is now rated 90 so that effort can safely be forgiven and he kept on fairly well for 2nd once headed at Thirsk last time. I do think he needs more of a test and the extra two furlongs today enables him to get that. His pedigree suggests this will be more ideal and he'll definitely stay the trip. I don't think a mark of 73 is beyond him and I'm not sure if there's much in here to get excited about. He should be harder to pass over this distance and I can see him making a bold bid from the front if that's what Freddy Tylicki decides to do as he goes up in trip.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.40 Redcar - 2pts win Kiwi Bay @ 11/2 (Hills) Michael Dods' runner has a fine record at Redcar and looks to have been laid out in an attempt to land this race for the third time. He's running off a past winning mark now and has been freshened up for this afternoon. Soft ground is of no concern whatsoever and Graham Lee is a top jockey booking. This is a time of year that he runs particularly well and he shaped nicely last time here as if that was a prep run. He's been supported in the market today which is a plus and it's hard to see him not going very well again at this venue.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.15 Redcar - 2pts win Docs Legacy @ 17/2 (Hills) The one I like here is down towards the bottom of the weights but represents a Richard Fahey yard going okay and has run more good races than bad in his career to date. He's had 9 runs, of which 2 have led to victories, and his two runs this season have been fairly good. Both of his wins came last October so he clearly is happy at this time of year and his return effort when 2nd at Carlisle in 2012 was strong - especially considering the rider dropped his whip and he went down by less than a length. I have a feeling he just bit off a bit more than he could chew last time in a slightly better race than this at Newbury and the ground was also on the sharp side for him. He's happiest when he can get his toe in and he wasn't disgraced last time under the circumstances. As I mentioned, this isn't quite as strong a race and the softer conditions are very much in his favour. He gets weight for age this afternoon which can help and I think he'll go very well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Kiwi Bay travelled like a dream but couldn't find any extra off the bridle and Docs Legacy ran very well to be 2nd. One tonight and a quick reappearance for one:

7.20 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Toughness Danon @ 10/1 (Bet365) Posted this last time at Epsom: 4.30 Epsom - 1pt win Toughness Danon @ 25/1 (Hills) I feel Brendan Powell's runner is a tad overpriced in here as he's only just getting down to a reasonable mark having been given a stiff rating of 88 when initially moving to the UK. He showed much more off 71 a few starts later and four of his last five efforts haven't been too bad. Nothing came from off the pace when he was a never nearer 4th at Warwick before having a luckless passage at Leicester when beaten 3 1/2l. He would have gone a good deal closer with a clear run and is 2lbs lower today with a 5lb claimer on board. He's found the 1m6f and 1m5f (heavy ground) a little too taxing recently and he pulled too hard at Hamilton last time so the more speedy course here can suit and this trip is probably his ideal. He's a big price but I don't think he should be 25/1 so is worthy of a small bet.

It was a bit of an odd run, this, as he was detached for much of the contest (no pressure from jockey) and kept on a bit up the straight to finish 9th of 15. The course wasn't right for him and this should be better for him. His last three runs have come in 0-80s and a 0-85 so will relish the drop into 0-70 company and he's run okay on polytrack before and his sire's progeny also have a good record on the all-weather. Seb Sanders is a good jockey booking and there have been nibbles of support today. Adds up to a good run I reckon.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Sanders was replaced by Ryan Powell and I'm a bit confused as to what I watched really. held up in rear, still appeared to be going well when not clear run over 1f out, shaken up and ran on well inside final furlong, nearest finish, given too much to do Obviously not the easiest of horses but I'm not sure why he never really went for him. Pretty much on the bridle with little over a furlong to go but a long way off the lead :eek

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.00 Catterick - 1pt win A Southside Boy @ 14/1 (Bet365) Fairly weak in the betting but is too big a price to leave having won last time with the hood on for the first time. Has plenty of stamina in pedigree and stayed on well there on heavy ground at Hamilton. This is an easier track so the distance should be within his grasp and the pair were clear of the remainder when he broke his maiden tag.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.10 Ayr - 1pt win Euston Square @ 25/1 (Bet365) Posted this before his York run:

3.30 York - 1pt win Euston Square @ 20/1 (PP) Personally think this runner is overpriced in this given conditions should be perfect for him to bring his A-game to the table. He's not from the most stylish yard in the world which probably contributes somewhat but Alistair Whillans has his string in good order and I can't help but feel his gelding will outrun his price today here. He's well-handicapped on his win off 77 at Ripon last July for all he had a 5lb claimer on board that day, as he races off 72 here and he was a comfortable 1 3/4l victor on that occasion. That was over this 1m2f trip which I think is his optimum. He's been in and out since but ran sound races off higher marks in decent handicaps back at Ripon and today's venue of York when beaten 3 1/2l in 6th off a 7lb higher mark in October (very wide draw). He's drawn wide again today but he won't be rushing to take the lead I wouldn't have thought so hopefully PJ McDonald can get him across into a decent position. He took a couple of runs to find top gear since returning in 2012 and then was only beaten a neck off a mark of 73 at Haydock when he just couldn't reel in the leader. That's another piece of form that gives him a chance here and although he bombed out at Ayr next time, his three most recent efforts also give him hope. Although the race he ran in back at the Scottish venue after that hasn't really worked out, it was still an encouraging performance behind a runaway 9l victor. Taking out the winner he went down by 1l by the runner-up and he was very slowly into stride which cost him 6 or 7 lengths. He put in good late work and it was a similar scenario two starts back (although not as bad at start). On that occasion, the leader stacked them up before quickening around the bend and it didn't suit my selection for all he finished really well. The 1m4f trip caught him out last time at Doncaster as he disputed 2nd at the furlong pole before fading quite badly late on and I think a soundly-run 1m2f is exactly what he wants at a course with a long straight - allowing him time to deliver his effort as he can take a little bit of time to hit top gear. A large field such as this should help him get cover and receive a solid gallop to run off that is true at the same time. There are a fair few pace merchants in the race which should keep it honest and I just think this one will be staying on at the finish and I see no reason why he can't shake things up at the business end.

Disappointed on this occasion as he chased quite a hot pace (good time set and those who dominated the race at the finish typically sat off the gallop). That was a 0-80 so he was probably biting off more than he could chew as well but he shouldn't be 25/1 now dropped 2lbs to head the weights in a 0-70 contest at a track he usually runs well at. The soft ground is somewhat of a concern but he has run adequately with cut in the ground before and he's worth another go at such odds.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.15 York - 2pts win Multi Bene @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes) A few of these have to prove themselves at the trip and this horse is included in that but the way he's been finishing his races off over a mile suggests that he'll get home and even enjoy the extra couple of furlongs on offer here. His dam has some stamina influence so there's a positive on that front too. You can't fault him for form, either, as he's finished in the first two on his last four runs (twice 2nd when finishing strongly). He has proven he can handle some cut in the ground and I just have to hope the very testing ground today won't be an issue either. The way he's won his races means it could be tricky to get a grasp on him in the handicap and I'm hopeful the 5lb rise won't be enough to stop him as he progresses up in distance.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.35 York - 2pts win Swing Alone @ 9/1 (Bet365) Obviously the favourite is respected here but I couldn't have him at such a short price as he climbs 7lbs in the weights in a higher grade and on ground he's never been tested on before. One of the less flashy horses in this field may be Gay Kelleway's charge but I think he has a genuine chance with the hood on for the first time. She doesn't send many horses up here (1-5 at York) and this one is a horse who really should run his race and under these conditions it may be enough. He was a very respectable 8th of 29 in the Britannia handicap at the Royal meeting before just being edged out over 7f at Newmarket. He's had excuses the last twice as he got outpaced before staying on again over 7f on ground too quick at HQ before finding Epsom far from an ideal track last time (finished well despite this). He runs off the same mark as when he was beaten a head at Newmarket a few starts back and that came on soft ground. I fancy this track will prove a good one for him and this trip on this ground also should suit. There may be one or two more unexposed types in the field but at the prices I like this one who should prove competitive off this mark under these conditions.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.35 Newmarket - 1pt win Tominator @ 12/1 (Bet365) In races such as this it often seems worth chancing a horse at a big price and although my selection is one of the main contenders in here, I do think he's still half-decent value at 12/1. He's been transferred to Jonjo O'Neill's yard since his recent run at Doncaster but he's a horse who should relish the race conditions here having won the Northumberland Plate last year. He likes coming off a genuine gallop which appears just about certain in a field of this size and should he get the breaks he shouldn't be too far away in this. He took a bit of time to warm to the task this campaign but was better than the bare result when beaten 5l in the Ebor and then he did well to win a Chester handicap over 1m5f as I wouldn't say that was his track. The fact that all 12 horses finished within 5l last time at Doncaster over 1m7f tells me they didn't go mad up front and my selection came home really well to say the race wasn't run to suit. He was beaten 1/2l and runs off the same mark here. The step back up in trip helps and some ease in the ground is of no inconvenience either. Jamie Spencer can hopefully weave his way through this monster field and get him rolling home - hopefully getting on top late on.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.00 Goodwood - 2pts win Waterford Star @ 12/1 (Sportingbet) Has done well for Ian Williams since joining and with the visor applied, racking up a hat-trick earlier this year. His wins have come on a sound surface but his sire's progeny go well with give in the ground and I'm hopeful he'll be able to act on it today. The yard are going fine and he's had excuses the last thrice as he just bumped into a well-handicapped horse (bolted up off higher mark next time out) when 2nd off 1lb higher than today. He ran in a 0-90 at Newmarket next time whereas this is a 0-70 and he had too much to do at Pontefract last time. He finished well to be 4th but it often pays to be handy there (first three home were) and that run suggested he could have more to offer. Timmy Murphy is a good jockey booking out of these jump jockeys and I'm hopeful of a big run as there are plenty in here I have reservations over.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.40 Curragh - 2pts win Voleuse De Couers @ 8/1 (PP) It may not be a very original bet in such a large field as I'm siding with the favourite but her latest run is the piece of form which stands out the most and she's still relatively unexposed and open to improvement. She regularly looked like wanting further over middle-distances, while still performing admirably, and she clearly relished the two mile trip when hacking up at Galway last time in a 20-runner handicap off a mark of 79 on soft ground. She is up 14lbs for that but she won by 8l and the form stacks up well. The runner-up won the English Cesarewitch Trial off 5lbs higher than at Galway in ready fashion and the 15l 3rd was then just 2l behind the 14/1 shot Sir Ector next time out (albeit with different weight allowances). However, it often pays to side with 3yos at this time of year as they receive weight and there are only six of those in the field here. She's been freshened up for this since that run and given that she's run well after a break before it all bodes well for a huge run. She gets 3lbs taken off her back to effectively reduce the burden of her penalty and it appears hard to see her out of the frame should she get a trouble-free passage. The one to beat I think.

[cpo]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

4.40 Curragh - 2pts win Voleuse De Couers @ 8/1 (PP) It may not be a very original bet in such a large field as I'm siding with the favourite but her latest run is the piece of form which stands out the most and she's still relatively unexposed and open to improvement. She regularly looked like wanting further over middle-distances, while still performing admirably, and she clearly relished the two mile trip when hacking up at Galway last time in a 20-runner handicap off a mark of 79 on soft ground. She is up 14lbs for that but she won by 8l and the form stacks up well. The runner-up won the English Cesarewitch Trial off 5lbs higher than at Galway in ready fashion and the 15l 3rd was then just 2l behind the 14/1 shot Sir Ector next time out (albeit with different weight allowances). However, it often pays to side with 3yos at this time of year as they receive weight and there are only six of those in the field here. She's been freshened up for this since that run and given that she's run well after a break before it all bodes well for a huge run. She gets 3lbs taken off her back to effectively reduce the burden of her penalty and it appears hard to see her out of the frame should she get a trouble-free passage. The one to beat I think.

Well done mate with this one. Backed her myself. She looks one to keep on the right side of

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Talk about hacking up! Needed that.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.30 Windsor - 2pts win Rioja Day @ 7/1 (Sportingbet) This colt's last three runs have all been encouraging and I think he's more than capable of getting involved here. His staying on 6th on his third maiden start has worked out very well indeed with all of those in front of him doing well since to gain quite lofty marks. On that, my selection's mark of 69 isn't beyond him at all and he's suggested that also in two handicap runs so far. His 2nd at Salisbury next time reads very well with the front three 8l clear and the third won easily next time out before finishing 2nd. That horse got the better of Rioja Day at Bath but the trip was 1m2f and my selection led for a long way before just getting tired. The drop back to a mile is very much in his favour and I feel he'll be tough to beat off this mark under these conditions.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.10 Nottingham - 1pt win Precision Strike @ 25/1 (Bet365) Probably just about the least interesting candidate in the field in the sense that he's already had four starts in nurseries but quite a few of these would have questions to answer about the surface today and off a lowly mark of 50 I don't think Richard Guest's runner is out of this. He showed very little in maidens or his first two handicaps but his latest two efforts over 6f in the mud have been respectable. He stayed on to be 3rd at Yarmouth behind a couple of half-decent sorts in a 0-75 affair two starts back and had excuses at Catterick last time when 6th of 10 (beaten 6l). He was hampered by a faller half a mile out and then had no run through when staying on in the closing stages. Had to be eased for the final 50 yards or so and wouldn't have gone down by as much with a clear passage. Catterick wouldn't be his ideal track, either, so better can be expected today. He steps up to a mile which should suit on the evidence of his two most recent runs and the soft ground is no issue. He's dropped another 2lbs in the handicap and Richard Guest's last two runners have been beaten 1/2l and the other one a winner. Fingers crossed he can outrun his price here from a good draw in stall 1.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Bets: 279 Wins: 32 Placed: 68 Staked: 638pts Returned: 599pts P/L: -39pts (Bank: 61pts)

[The Saint]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

2.10 Nottingham - 1pt win Precision Strike @ 25/1 (Bet365) Probably just about the least interesting candidate in the field in the sense that he's already had four starts in nurseries but quite a few of these would have questions to answer about the surface today and off a lowly mark of 50 I don't think Richard Guest's runner is out of this. He showed very little in maidens or his first two handicaps but his latest two efforts over 6f in the mud have been respectable. He stayed on to be 3rd at Yarmouth behind a couple of half-decent sorts in a 0-75 affair two starts back and had excuses at Catterick last time when 6th of 10 (beaten 6l). He was hampered by a faller half a mile out and then had no run through when staying on in the closing stages. Had to be eased for the final 50 yards or so and wouldn't have gone down by as much with a clear passage. Catterick wouldn't be his ideal track, either, so better can be expected today. He steps up to a mile which should suit on the evidence of his two most recent runs and the soft ground is no issue. He's dropped another 2lbs in the handicap and Richard Guest's last two runners have been beaten 1/2l and the other one a winner. Fingers crossed he can outrun his price here from a good draw in stall 1.

My smileys are fcuked for some reason or other but well done! That's gotta put you somewhere back near level pegging I would have thought... Fair Play.... While you're on a massive high, with regards to your staking vs your bank, I'd imagine your average back price would be around 12/1. Based on that assumption being true, over a year of 2 bets a day, at 'break even' point you would get 56 winners from 730 odds runs. That would dictate that you could easily expect a losing run of 82 and with a starting bank of 100, betting 1, 2 or even 3 points would be too high for my fragile phychological make-up!! I admire your fortitude for being able to battle on through and it's great to see you reaping the rewards now but I just wonder if you are (on a sub-conscious level) being affected by running what I consider to be a low starting bank for your type of selections. I start at around 80 points but my selections average price is 5.49 as opposes to 12/1 (13.0). Just a thought. My other one was that I'm not sure that 1m+ hcaps are your strongest area either! That's possibly badly phrased - I mean to say that on a number of occassions this year, I've noted you tipping good winners and having nothing to show for it on this thread as they've been in sprints or group events etc etc. Not wanting to be critical and have been waiting for you to have a good winner before sticking my 2 penneth in as I'm quite sure I wouldn't overly appreciate advice if I was having a tough time of it. I may be well off - u know your punting better than anyone I guess and am sure you have records to back up what races suit you best. If you don't, I'd suggest that you are as good in other spheres as you are in this one.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps No I do tend to agree with regards to specialisation. The idea of this was to enable me to focus in mainly on one type of race to save me from looking at a huge amount of races per day. It could have been the same if I just focused on sprints, or non-handicaps etc. I just thought I'd had quite a few decent results with this type of race in the past. As it's turned out, I have had a few, but I've also missed out having had big winners on Eton Forever, Hototo, Penitent, Sri Putra and a few others off the top of my head. As for the bank, I think the main error with that (as pointed out a few pages back) was that I was neglecting 1pt bets and using 2pts as a standard bet. That's changed somewhat, now, and I think that suits better. If, as I believe, I'm better over the jumps, I'm relatively pleased with my flat betting this summer. It has been far from great but factoring in the other bets It hasn't been too bad so if I can round it off with a few more winners in here I'll be satisfied going into the NH season. Thanks for your comments :ok