FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY

richard-westwood · May 23, 2012

3.30 HAY lady layla looked an improving type last year and will most likely be fav but didnt post much on the clock so 4/1 is too short,not many of these horses are capable of putting in times to win this ,takealookatmenow hails from the nicholls stable and was pretty quick last year so respected but top rated XINBAMA (82) ran his rating 3 weeks ago albeit on the a.w but transition from lingfield to good/firm is relatively easy so can be expected to run his race .......the 7/1 with paddy power is mega value (tissue 9/2) so ill have e.w xinbama 1pt e.w 7/1 paddy power

Edberg · May 23, 2012

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY 2.20 Haydock AHLAWY 3pts @ 14/1 bog (Betvictor and Bet365) Ahlawy is now aged 9 and is not the force of old (12 wins, 9 seconds and 11 thirds in 82 starts) but retains still all the abilities to win a race like this off his current mark imho. The horse has been kept very busy since last summer on the AW precisely at Wolverhampton and mainly in claming/selling stakes over 9-12f. He won his last race in December and kept running very well in defeat this year collecting 3 seconds and 5 thirds in 8 races between February and April adding a 4th and a 5th in his last two starts. As said those races where mainly in claiming/selling stakes but he did run also in one handicap over 1m4f two months ago and finished 3rd racing off 69 and was just 1L behind the winner. He's kept his mark on the AW close to 70 (mainly 69 but now dropped to 67 after his last 5th who came in an amateur race which I'd like to take little in account even if his effort wasn't that bad at all). He ran very little on turf in the last couple of years and last summer was still racing off 80-70. His last win on turf came at Epsom over 9f in August 2010 in a class 5 handicap off 74 and just two years ago he won over today's C&D in a class 4 handicap off 74. Back on turf after a long time Alhawy can race off 59 today and gets on a top jockey. Mirco Demuro has taken a couple of weeks to get used to British racing standards but has been showing all his class of late collecting 6 wins from 15 runners within one week (11-18 May) and two of them came with horses trained by Frank Sheridan (who lived a worked as a jockey first and trainer later in Italy for ages before moving back to UK four years ago). Those were the only winners saddled by Sheridan in the last fortnight and one of those winners was a 25/1 shot that won a race at the Chester Festival last 10 days ago and overall Mirco Demuro is 2-3 when riding for Sheridan this year. The favourites of this race don't seem anything special as both Jack's Revenge and The Galloping Shoe are surely in good form but are both not straightforward animals and have both been upped in the rating after their last good efforts. Jack's Revenge finished twice second on the AW on his last two starts and literally threw away a win last time out hanging badly in the final 100 yards while The Galloping Shoe won over today's C&D (on soft ground) last time out (26 days ago) but loses Jim Crowley for Michael O'Connell (big minus imho) and is rated 4lb higher now and in the last 4 years he had won only another race and was in 2010. Not an easy race but Alhawy stands a good chance with this featherweight and at current prices it's worth a solid confident bet imho.

Edberg · May 23, 2012

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY 3.10 Goodwood PRIMAEVAL 5pts to win @ 7/2 bog (Ladbrokes and Boylesports) Primaeval has surely been more consistent at very high level on AW but is rated 8lb lower on turf and ran very well on his last two outings on turf last autumn at Ascot when twice second over 1m and over 7f. That race over 7f was a 29-runner class 2 handicap for apprentices and he was racing off 89 so just off a 3lb lower mark. Primaeval finished second just 3/4L behind the winner Edinburgh Knight and he had pushed the winner all the way to the line. Behind Primaeval there were a bunch of today's opponents (Axiom, Mr David, Noble Citizen, Thunderball and Rulesn'regulations), all well beaten, and that form looks even stronger now since Edinburgh Knight won that race off 93 (just 4lb higher than Primaeval) and the Paul D'Arcy-trained gelding has won a Listed on his next start (Nov 2011) and has come back in very good style at Doncaster in the Lincoln (22-runner class 2 handicap over 1m that opened the turf season 8 weeks ago) when a close 4th (1.25L behind the winner) racing off his career highest mark (104). Edinburgh Knight is now rated 105 so 12lb higher than when beating Primaeval at Ascot last October. Primaeval back on the AW after that race at Ascot has won twice at Kempton (both over 7f) and has finished second (a bit unlucky) in a high quality handicap at Meydan (again over 7f) won by Ip Man with another today's oppoent, Global City well beaten in 4th (1L behind him). The James Fanshawe-trained gelding's main opponent today should be the David Elsworth-trained mare Bonnie Brae who is the top weight of the race (rated 100) who won his last 2011 start at Doncaster (7f, soft, class 2 handicap off 90) and has confirmed her improvements finishing second in the Victoria Cup at Ascot 12 days ago (7f, soft) beaten just 3/4L by Global Village and racing off 96. Change of ground, highest career mark (10lb higher than her last winning mark) could be two negatives as well a mare carrying a top weight (9-7) in a race versus top class opponents of the other sex. Her trainer was quoted before the Victoria Cup as expecting her to come on for that race so there should be more to come from this nice talented mare but I still rate her less well handicapped than my selection at the moment and with more question marks to answer I'm fully exposed with Primaeval here.

andyjkmak · May 23, 2012

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY 4.55 Goodwood Mohanad has ran with credit over hurdles last few times and ran really well in a valuable handicap last year off a higher mark than this. Has ran well every time he has appeared at this track and with the stable hitting form this could be his day. Fine young jockey on board once again and has his ground today. Conditions look ideal here for a very good run. Should be up with the pace throughout and looks to have a really excellent chance. Blazing Field looks the danger but has stamina doubts and Hidden Valley probaby needs a bit of give in the ground to be seen to her best. All in all Mohanad is the value here and I am backing him to take this. 1 pt win 8/1 PaddyPower

georgeCOSTANZA · May 24, 2012

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Tipperary 5:50 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Hartani [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 24/05/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 0.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Won last time out by a 1/2 length to A P O'Brien's Offer who comfortably won by 4 1/4 lengths next time out. That was on Heavy going. making all the running. The 3yo by Shirroco should has plenty of room for progress and will be hard to beat if handling the quicker ground. He's the only entry today from owner H H Aga Khan who had been oparating at a 39% strike rate (11/28) in Ireland this season; 7 wins from 16 this month. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

georgeCOSTANZA · May 24, 2012

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Salisbury 7:15 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Supreme Quest [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 24/05/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 0.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Not bad on reappearance 17 days ago; 4th of 9 by 6 1/4 lengths. She did not have the best day having to go the minimum trip and found problems in running early in the race. Reproducing her best run from last year will make her hard to beat. That was on her second career start (now has four runs) when 2nd of 7 by 3/4 failing to make all the running behind Sajwah (subs, Listed winner) and third by 3/4 to the selection was Esentepe who is a Group 3 winner this year. Rorger Charlton has his maiden in fine form this year especialy the past two weeks having won 4 of 7 (4131161). He has four runners set to go off today with just one maiden. Jockey James Doyle is booked and his maiden form the past two weeks for Charlton is 41161. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

Lars · May 24, 2012

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY CITRUS STAR (15:10) needs 7f, a good pace to aim at and quick ground, he gets all three today and although heâ€™s a bit of a character, he should run really well off what looks an extremely lenient turf handicap mark. A winner over C&D in 2010 off 6lbs higher, he struggled for a while afterwards but slowly started getting it together again towards the end of last season, culminating in a victory off a rating of 92 on polytrack debut at Lingfield, winning with what looked like plenty in hand. He was far from disgraced next time out in a Conditions event and although he was beaten 43 lengths on seasonal reappearance, that effort was over a trip too sharp, ground too soft and ran in the wrong group, so itâ€™s an effort worth completely writing off. Heâ€™ll strip fitter for that anyway and the handicapper has bizarrely dropped him 4lbs for it, which is very generous and he looks well-handicapped both on his recent all-weather form and his best turf exploits. Quick ground and 7f is paramount to his chance on turf and he gets both of those today, alongside a track he obviously handles and the assistance of William Buick, who is 2/7 for the Chris Wall stable, can only be viewed as a positive. The inclusion of the also well-handicapped Primaeval means that we get a decent price on Citrus Star today and he should go very well, especially given plenty is in his favour conditions wise. Although his attitude can sometimes be a problem, the price today warrants a bet and heâ€™s a good couple of points overpriced in my book, calling for a standard win bet. MARFORD MISSILE (15:30) has his first start at 7f here today but has the pedigree to stay the extra furlong and shaped that it would be within reach on his penultimate start. He won that day with plenty more in hand than the handicapper has given him credit for and if he does stay 7f, then heâ€™s more than capable of taking this contest. The selection was sharp enough to win over 5f on debut, but his juvenile career didnâ€™t go on for too long, finishing 2^nd in the Lily Agnes at Chester in May 2011 being his final start of the season. Gelded in the meantime, he wasnâ€™t seen for 10 months in public but made a winning reappearance at Kempton over 6f in March. Held-up in a slowly run, small-field contest, he did well to win and was hardly given a hard-time in doing so, looking to do the business with plenty more up his sleeve. Richard Kingscote reported after the race that heâ€™d improve again for another furlong, a statement backed up by his pedigree (dam won at 1m2f, half-sibling to winners at 7f-1m2f) which gives more encouragement that he can stay todayâ€™s distance. Surprisingly he was kept to 6f at Chester last time out, where he stood no chance given the way the race played out. He was slowly away, clipped heels early on and looked ill at ease on the exceptionally testing ground, not a surprise given he had a decent level of form on a faster surface. Today he races over much more favourable conditions, given the quick ground and I think it all depends on whether he has the stamina for the trip. The way he won at Kempton suggested he would stay it and also that he has plenty up his sleeve in the handicapping department. I think he might be capable of running to a mark of 90 in the very near future and with Kieran Fallon on board a noteworthy booking (0/11 for the yard, but has been their jockey of choice for stable-star Brown Panther so is obviously highly thought of at Manor House Stables), Marford Missile looks set for a big run. I have him at around the 7/1 mark, so the current price look very appealing. Bets 15:10 Goodwood â€“ Citrus Star; 2pts @ 8/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill (bog) 15:30 Haydock â€“ Marford Missile; 2pts @ 10/1 Bet365, BetVictor (bog)

richard-westwood · May 24, 2012

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY 3.10 goodwood wow this is one hot race and finding it difficult to get my head around the form so passed it over to the computer and it came up with the following: global city 95 primaeavl 94 bonnie brae 92 citrus star 92 bronze prince 91 incredibly hard to sort these out and on good/firm with so many speedsters then i think this will be one fast and furious race ,im a big fan of primaeval and wouldnt put anyone backing him as he undoubtably will pop up soon .citrus star is very capable of putting in fast times and also looks dangerous .bonnie brae is hard to assess as his run at ascot was his fastest speed rating to date and directly would give him a really good chance today but the ground was softish that day and overall he has the profile of a horse that prefers cut in the ground as he isnt a natural speedster and against these i have to oppose .to play in this race im going to need some serious value and GLOBAL CITY comes out top rated (rating over 6f) and im worried he might not last this 7f but he should love the fast ground and goodwoods 7f is one of the easiest in the country so both positives .a reproduction of his 4th to ip man over 7f would certainly see him take these on and at 5x the price of the fav at 14/1 he just looks very good value to hope he lasts and handles the ground global city 2pts e.w 14/1 betvic also had a 1pt saver win bet on citrus star as also good value at 8/1 generally

Edberg · May 24, 2012

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY 5.30 Goodwood INDIAN SHUFFLE 3pts to win @ 12/1 bog (Paddy Power and many more) Indian Shuffle is a 4yo sprinter who has collected 2 wins, 2 seconds and 3 thirds in 15 starts on the turf. He ran one of his best races first time out last season (6 Apr, Nottingham, 5f, firm, class 5 handicap for 3yo, racing off 69) when second beaten just 1/2L (headed in the last 30 yards) and able to record a RPR of 69 so he goes very well fresh (first run since September). The son of Sleeping Indian won his first ever race on his second start of the season at Bath (19 Apr 2011, 6f, firm, maiden) and later on last year went on to win again in a class 5 handicap off 68 (22 Jun, Bath, 6f, good, easy win racing off 68 when recorded his best RPR of 73). Indian Shuffle has run well again in defeat over that C&D (Bath, 6f, good to firm) when 4th just 2L behind the winner racing off 72 at the end of July (RPR of 73 again) but went a bit off boil on his last two starts. After a long and useful break the horse is due to start his 4yo/2012 campaign off 69 in what looks a race within his possibilities. He is not totally exposed yet and from 3 to 4 he should be able to make another little step forward in this category. He's rated 69 so gets just in in this 0-70 class 5 handicap and the ground (good/good to firm) will surely be appreciated. His trainer Jonathan Portman has had just one winner in the last fortnight but has saddled a lot of horses who ran well of late (10 more hit the frame during the last 14 days which means just 4 from 15 runners trained by Portman finished 5th of worse in the last two weeks). Today's jockey is George Downing who's been one of the best apprentice jockeys this season not only for his good stats (7 winners from only 38 rides in 2012 and even better on turf with 4 winners from just 11 rides for a formidable 36% strike rate and a level stake profit of +28.5 in this 2012 so far) but just because the young jockey has been riding a lot of times really well (have a look for example at his two wins last week over 6f and 7f at Bath and Salisbury with a 7/1 shot and a 14/1 shot). Downing is not only one the best apprentice jockeys around at the moment, at least in my opinion, but in this race (which is an apprentice stakes handicap) he claims 3lb which is not a bad news at all for Indian Shuffle. Indian Shuffle should be able to take the lead (starts very fast and likes to lead) soon in this field and with a little help from the downhill track he could last home.

georgeCOSTANZA · May 24, 2012

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Goodwwood 3:45 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Minidress [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 24/05/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 0.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] 8th of 13 by 5 1/4 lengths for the Group 3 Nell Gwynn Stakes Held up off the pace in midfield, ridden and effort when hung right well over 1f out, keeping on but still plenty to do when not clear run and switched right 1f out, kept on but never able to challeng. That was on her first outing this year. She raced twice last season winning by 4 lengths on debut at Newmarket in August. She stepped up to Group 3 level last September for 4th of 10 by 2 lengths for the Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket. Trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni had her at 50-50 to run in the Guineas but obviously did not participate. She has plenty of abilities and the drop to a Listed race can make racing easier. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

georgeCOSTANZA · May 24, 2012

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Haydock 5:15 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Yasir [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 2/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 24/05/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 0.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Unraced 2yo but progressed well at 3yo last year. Raced from August to October for 4th of 9, 3rd of 10, 2nd of 10, and 1st of 14. He was last of 20 runners first time out this year but may have been needed plus it was a Class 3 race at Newmarket. Jockey Tadgh O'Shea replaces Ted Durcan and that should have a better result. O'Shea did the steering on the second career start of the selection where they finished 3rd to runners from Henry Cecil (Protaras) and Sir Michael Stoute (Whispered). LTO was only for 1m2f, today is upped to 1m4f which is the same trip as his last three starts last year. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

Edberg · May 24, 2012

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY 5.15 Haydock REFRACTOR 4pts to win @ 6/1 bog (Bet365 and many more) Refractor is a 4yo gelding trained by James Fanshawe. The horse had a belated debut less than 7 months ago (26 Oct) but has shown good things and looks a progressive horse. Refractor's younger half-brother Kid Suitor is confirming the quality breeding (2 wins and 3 seconds in 6 starts and already rated 85) and acts very well on turf so there is no reason why Refractor should be inconvenienced by the the return to this surface where he has failed so far but had just two starts and one was his debut over 1m (too short) and last one was on very testing ground. On the Polytrack he showed all his best so far finishing second and first in two maidens at the end of 2011 (second and third career starts), second over 1m2f and winner over 1m4f, and won again last time out (6th career start and just 4th on the AW) at Kempton over 1m3f in a class 5 handicap off 75, 24 days ago. That win was really impressive (RPR of 85 and TS of 76) as Refractor unseated his rider and got loose going going to start and it took a while before they caught him (evaded capture for several times and ran more than a mile and all the commentators were wishing he was gonna be retired as he had almost no chance after that mess). Not only he won (1.25L ahead of the second and 3.25L ahead of the third) but he did it in impressive style imho. Martin Lane held him up in 6th and they started a smooth progress just over 2f out to gain the lead over 1f out and urged along he held on very easily in the end. Martin Lane, rider of Refractor in all his last 5 starts and also today, said after that win: "He was so full of himself. He was only bucking though and he didn't run too far [when he got loose]. I knew going back to his maiden here he was a good horse and it was great to see him achieve that form again. He was absolutely cruising coming into the straight, although he only does what he has to when heÂ´s in front." What matters most of that comment is the last sentence as the jockey, who knows Refractor very well, said he only doeas what he has to when he's in front and that should mean there is still more to come from him. Back on turf he can race off 76 (won off 75 last time out at Kempton and is rated 80 now on the AW) and this race over 1m4f on good to firm ground seems tailor made for him. James Fanshawe is always among the winners (2 winners in the last fornight) and today's opponents imho are either out of form or badly handicapped after some good efforts or way more exposed.

Goodkat · May 24, 2012

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 24TH MAY [TABLE=class: cms_table]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Event[/TD] [TD] Goodwood 2.35[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Palomas Prince [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 10/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 24/05/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]BetVictor 16/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I have been told by a serious source that this horse is expected to bolt up.

The Saint · May 24, 2012