Flat Racing: Fri 4th May

[RussP]

This weather has caused havoc but hopefully we should be able to get stuck into the flat season properly. Taking one today. 3.30 Musselburgh 1 NR and we're left with 11 for this Class 4, 9f handicap. I did note the market leader, Borug, as running well lto but I just feel it's hold up style ain't ideally suited to this track so 3's looks a bit short to me whilst Muffin McLeay, although clearly in good heart, will have to improve again. Instead, I'm taking: Staff Sergeant (3pts EW @ 15/2 William Hill BOG) - Only won once in 13 starts but there's enough to suggest that will change soon. Firstly, this race likes to race up with the pace and I can only see one other prominent type in the race which could well mean our horse can dictate proceedings and have the race run to suit. A good low draw in 3 will help that. Next is a return to softer ground and the longer trip, as well as the ease in grade. All these things are definite ticks in the box. If we class Southwell as a 'soft ground' track (yes, I know it's fibresand but you get my drift!), its record on this type of going reads 1-2-6-2-5-2. Has shown in the last 2 years it's ability to go well fresh, winning 2 years ago at Southwell and finishing a head 2nd on its reappearance 12 months ago. That would indicate no issues with the 216 day absence. Races off 77 today and has some good form every time it has raced off a mark in the 70's. 7 tries off a 70-something mark; head 2nd at 7/1 over 10f, 7th of 17 where Class 3 / good ground didn't help, 4th of 16 where again good ground was evident, 2nd of 11 over 8f on soft, 5th of 13 on good to soft; this is a race it's performance can be marked up as it was involved in a 4 way battle for the lead and the 4 in front at the finish all came from off the pace, 2nd of 12 over an inadquate 7f on soft (that was Class 3 too) and a promising 5th of 16 on unsuitable ground in a higher grade. Whilst its win record ain't that promising, I can find enough in there to suggest that, with optimum conditions, this one could be tough to beat. I think that may be today and I'm happy to get involved at a nice EW price.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May 3.40 wolv tough little race this with plenty of talent .....hoyadoingnotsobad looks a decent type and comes out top on ratings at (87) which is pretty good but have a feeling he is better on sharper /faster track than wolverhampton and weight rise /course change makes his 4/1 quote a little cramped .crew cut looks a big danger .....likes the track and looks nicely weighted for a big run around 6/1 mark but i think theres slightly better value in the 7/1 about MAWJOODAH ......on both his last 2 runs has shown plenty of speed at wolv recording a 84 over 6f then a 79 over 7f where he was leading at the 6 pole ......returns to 6f which is obviously his best trip and keiron fallon takes the ride today so looks like big run expected ......course form a big plus here at wolv so an 84 today would put him right in the mix so 7/1 quote just too big but the 11/2 with bet365 covered to 3places is even better . mawjoodah 2pts win 11/2 covered to 3places bet365

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May 2:00 » Musselburgh FRI 4 MAY 2012 "WEE BOAB´S 21ST" BIRTHDAY BASH HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo 0-65) Winner £1,941 Good To Soft 5f Number of runners: 10 WILD SAUCE 5pts to win @ 5/2 bog (Paddy Power and Bet365) Wild Sauce is 3yo filly by Exceed And Excel who ran only 5 times so far but broker her maiden duck last time out with a gutsy performance at Wolverhampton (5f, 17 Feb). That was her second try in handicaps off a mark of 58 (62 today) and surely she had responded well to first-time blinkers. I liked the way she won as she made all and battled gamely till the post to land a significant gamble (sent off 5/2 favourite) and deny Chateau Lola by a head. As her owner Richard Page said she had previously been a bit wayward off the bend so the blinkers made a good work. Her trainer Bryan Smart gave her 77 days off and she has already proved she handles these conditions since her debut (23 May 2011) at Carlisle was on soft ground and she had finished 3rd of 11 beaten just 2L by Risky Art who went on to win again at York (handicap over 1m off 75) in August and has raced in a Listed at Newbury (won by Pimpernel) at the end of her 2yo career (22 Oct 2011). Risky Art is now rated 81. Behind Wild Sauce that day there were a bunch of good 2yo (all well beaten as the 4th came 3.25L behind her) such as the now 74-rated Flambard House (4th that day and 4 times 2nd in his other 4 starts), Whisky Bravo (winner of 3 races since and close third in handicap off 75 two days ago at Pontefract), Master Of Ages (won in nice style his 4th and last start at 2 and is rated 81). So that form reads very well now and Wild Sauce did very well to finish third that day (her debut) miles ahead of most of the aforementioned horses after she had been travelling comfortably (so no problem with the soft ground) and keeping on well without being subjected to an unduly hard time. She had some problems afterwards and came back on track only at the end of November when she was switched to the AW tracks for her winter campaign where she collected two 3rds and a 5th before her first win. Also the form of her last win has been franked afterwards since Chateau Lola won off a 3lb higher mark on her second start (with one of today's biggest rivals of Wild Sauce, Phoenix Clubs, well beaten in 4th) after that close second behind Wild Sauce and she's now rated 6lb higher, the third of that race (My Name Is Sam) won last time out off the same mark and even the sixth (Tiablo) won since and is now rated 64 (60 when she faced Wild Sauce at Wolverhampton in February). Bryan Smart's horses are in good form: 1 winner and 3 placements with his last 5 runners in the last fortnight and that winner was Free Zone which is probably is best 3yo and was making his seasonal debut (21 Apr, Thirsk, 5f, soft) after a long break (6 months off). Tom Eaves was on Wild Sauce for her last win and on Free Zone too (had also another winner for Michaeld Dods last week) so he surely knows Bryan Smart's horses very well being the stable's first jockey. One of today's main rival seems to be Phoenix Clubs who was well behind Chateau Lola on her seasonal debut and on her second and so far last start of this 2012 she finished 2nd but well beaten by Towbee and that form is very weak (all subsequent runners ran pretty bad). She won on her handicap debut at Carlisle over 5f in August (off 59) but that was on good and she has been racing 4 times off her new marks (64-65) proving she is not so well handicapped at the moment. The main rival could be Lord Buffhead who won a race over 5f at Newcastle on heavy (12 Aug 2011) on his handicap debut off 55 but was disappointing afterwards and even with his mark dropped down to 46 he could only finish 2nd at Wolverhampton (23 Mar, 6f) and back on turf he achieved a good 2nd behind Laura's Bairn last week at Catterick (5f, soft, off 52) but that performance is surely flattering his real value as that was a very low quality sprint handicap and the first two were part of a group of three who raced stands' side and they enjoyed a huge advantage for that tactical choice. Lord Buffhead has the big advantage that the handicapper sent him up to 57 since that (was racing off 52 last week) but he's still allowed to race off his old mark today so he's 5lb ahead of the handicapper at the moment. Still he had been partnered by 5lb claimers in most of his races (Duilio Da Silva and Charles Eddery on his last two outs) and today William Carson is on his saddle so he loses that little useful claim (even if today's jockey is surely more experienced and overall a better jockey than those claimers). All in all the Richard Guest-trained 3yo stands a decent chance especially since he's at his best on this kind of ground but he's way more exposed (16th start) than my selection and his last performance was a bit lucky. Gran Canaria Queen is a 3yo filly trained by Ian Semple and this will be her 4th career start so she could well be the one able to improve more than expected on paper among the other runners but she showed very little on her two starts at 2 and on her seasonal debut here at Musselburgh over 7f four weeks ago (5th of 9 but beaten almost 10L). All her first three efforts came in maidens and she surely would appreciated the drop back in trip since she didn't seem to saty 7f last time but her opening mark of 54 doesn't seem to be a gift (recorded RPR of 47 on both her last two starts when she finished 4th and 5th and was last of 12 beaten 25L on her debut). She has surely a lot of room for improvements in a medium-long term but can't be a serious danger for what we've seen so far. Windygoul Lad is a bit more exposed than Gran Canaria Queen and had beaten just 1 home collecting 53L in his first three starts before finishing 6th less than 1L behind Gran Canaria Queen on his last start. Drop back in trip could help him a bit (never raced over 5f) and last performance a bit better than his previous efforts but makes his handicap debut off 58 and this mark seems a bit too harsh for what he's been showing so far. Tuibama was well beaten behind Lord Buffhead last time out and had finished 5th behind Wild Sauce on my selection's winning effort at Wolverhampton in February so the Tracy Waggott-trained 3yo is well held by both. So a weak opening race with a lot in Wild Sauce's favour and she seems a deserved favourite of this race.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May « 3:30 » Musselburgh FRI 4 MAY 2012 CORE (OIL AND GAS) LTD HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) Winner £5,175 Good To Soft 1m1f Number of runners: 12 STAFF SERGEANT 3pts to win @ 9/1 bog (Boylesports) Staff Sergeant is a lightly raced 5yo (only 13 starts so far) whose best two efforts came on his seasonal debut winning easily at Southwell over 1m in April 2010 and finishing 2nd, beaten a head, at Ayr over 1m2f in May 2011. His form at the end of last season was improving: 4th of 16, 2nd of 11, 5th of 13, 2nd of 12 and 5th of 16 (best of those who raced with the pace) all in handicaps over 7f-1m-1m1f at Hamilton, Redcar and Ayr and all off marks of 77 and 78. Both seconds came on soft ground so no problem with today's ground. Jim Goldie and Graham Lee partnered for a nice winner yesterday here at Musselburgh (20/1 shot) and the trainer saddled another winner last week at Thirsk while the former Grand National winning jockey has had only that winner but has been riding on the flat very little since he switched from the other code (only 8 rides in April). So this seems a very good opportunity for Staff Sergeant as this is the best time to catch him, he finished the 2011 in very good form, stable going back to good form of late, good jockey hungry of successes for sure, perfect mark, no problem with ground and the trip. Of course the main problem is to beat today's 10 rivals (Vito Volterra is a NR). The biggest dangers should be Borug, Muffin Mcleay and Judicious. Borug is the top weight and gets Paul Hanagan on board today. The 4yo colt won twice in 2010 and wen close a couple of times last year racing mainly in tough companies (Listed and Group 3). He shaped well on his seasonal debut (16 Apr) at Windsor over 1m (surely a trip too short for him) when finishing 3rd of 14 even if well beaten (4.5L) by the winner (the impressive Moon's My Name). A lot on his favour but ground is a big worry as he raced only twice on ground easier than good/good to firm and finished last of 6 (beaten 10.5L) in 2010 and 8th of 11 (beaten 28L) last June. If the ground dries a bit more could be the biggest danger for my selection but it stays on the soft side can't have it. Judicious makes his debut for Keith Dalgleish and has had a very good 2011 with Geoff Harker winning 3 times (all over 1m2f) but all on good to firm. Judicious wasn't disgraced on good to soft at Haydock (3rd of 8, beaten 1.5L) in September (1m4f) but didn't show his best when 6th (7.25L behind the winner) on his seasonal comeback at Doncaster 5 weeks ago (reported lame after the race). One could expect some improvements with the new training but his last win came off 75 (79 today) his last two efforts were poor (13th on his last start in 2011) and softish ground wouldn't be a plus for him for sure. Muffin Mclealy is a 4yo trained by David Barron who has had only 5 starts in his career (all in 2011) winning in impressive style his second last at Hamilton (1m1f, soft) in an handicap off 70 and finishing second of 16 next time out (again over 1m1f at Hamilton in August but on good ground) off his new mark of 80. Highly unexposed horse and his yard has been producing many winners of late especially with horses on their seasonal comebacks so it has to be feared even if racing off 82 he would probably need to produce his career best to win this race (possible of course since he was on the upward curve last year and is so lightly raced). So I'd rate Muffin Mclealy and Borug as two serious candidates but both are priced around 7/2 atm and so the value seems to be on my selection that has a lot on his favour and if at his best could well be able to beat all these rivals.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May

This weather has caused havoc but hopefully we should be able to get stuck into the flat season properly. Taking one today. 3.30 Musselburgh 1 NR and we're left with 11 for this Class 4, 9f handicap. I did note the market leader, Borug, as running well lto but I just feel it's hold up style ain't ideally suited to this track so 3's looks a bit short to me whilst Muffin McLeay, although clearly in good heart, will have to improve again. Instead, I'm taking: Staff Sergeant (3pts EW @ 15/2 William Hill BOG) - Only won once in 13 starts but there's enough to suggest that will change soon. Firstly, this race likes to race up with the pace and I can only see one other prominent type in the race which could well mean our horse can dictate proceedings and have the race run to suit. A good low draw in 3 will help that. Next is a return to softer ground and the longer trip, as well as the ease in grade. All these things are definite ticks in the box. If we class Southwell as a 'soft ground' track (yes, I know it's fibresand but you get my drift!), its record on this type of going reads 1-2-6-2-5-2. Has shown in the last 2 years it's ability to go well fresh, winning 2 years ago at Southwell and finishing a head 2nd on its reappearance 12 months ago. That would indicate no issues with the 216 day absence. Races off 77 today and has some good form every time it has raced off a mark in the 70's. 7 tries off a 70-something mark; head 2nd at 7/1 over 10f, 7th of 17 where Class 3 / good ground didn't help, 4th of 16 where again good ground was evident, 2nd of 11 over 8f on soft, 5th of 13 on good to soft; this is a race it's performance can be marked up as it was involved in a 4 way battle for the lead and the 4 in front at the finish all came from off the pace, 2nd of 12 over an inadquate 7f on soft (that was Class 3 too) and a promising 5th of 16 on unsuitable ground in a higher grade. Whilst its win record ain't that promising, I can find enough in there to suggest that, with optimum conditions, this one could be tough to beat. I think that may be today and I'm happy to get involved at a nice EW price.

Happy to see we agree on this and of course I didn't mention an important thing, the fact he could well be able to race up with the pace today, something that's been a big advantage in the last few days (surely for the testing conditions).

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May 3.30 muss: ground will probably be on the soft side so its difficult to weigh this race up .....borug looks decent but looks as though better ground would suit and a touch high in the weights ,mullins way certainly looks a danger but off 84 still looks a tad high today ,oriental scot looks a good betting prospect as he has the speed to figure on soft ground and has a nice mark so big run on the cards ,staff sargeant also looks a likely sort and has run well on the ground in the past so looks fair e.w value but the horse i like most is COLLATERAL DAMAGE who looks poor on paper but first run up rated 65 on the clock and next time out 74 .....hcapper has dropped 3lbs and has run 87 on good sft in the past and now had 2 runs to prime himself a big run looks on the cards shortly .anything around a 83 would see him in the mix and the 14/1 available is just too much value to miss collateral damage 2pts e.w 14/1 boyles /sky

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May « 4:00 » Musselburgh FRI 4 MAY 2012 DAIKIN D1 INSTALLER HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-90) Winner £6,469 Good To Soft 7f30y Number of runners: 12 POWERFUL PRESENCE 4pts to win @ 9/2 bog (most of the bookies) Powerful Presence is a 6yo chestnut gelding by Refuse To Bend who costed 170,000gns as a foal but had been very disappointing since he missed his 2yo season, had shown close to nothing on his first season (2009) and just started to shape as a decent animal later on his second season at 4 (2010) finishing 3rd of 13 (beaten 2L) and 6th of 30 (beaten 3L), both on yielding ground, on his last two starts of 2010 (both over 7f) finally dropped back in trip (had been campaigned mainly over 1m2f-1m4f before). That was with Dermont Weld and the horse was sold for 800€. He moved to David O'Meara's yard and has had a glorious 2011. Powerful Presence started his career in UK racing in handicaps off 50: second first time out over 1m at Southwell in January 2011 but soon able to win off the same mark in the same kind of race 5 days later. The horse won again in January off 56 dropped to 7f (always at Southwell) and did it in impressive style and finished 2nd on his next start off 61 back over 1m. He had some problems and missed the next 5 months but back on track in June he won again at Catterick over 7f (good to firm) off 65 in impressive style once again and won again on his next start (July 2011) at Haydock over 1m (good to firm) off 71. At the end of July he was upped in grade (first start in Class 4 handicap) and finished 2nd (beaten a neck) at York over 7f off 76 and wasn't disgraced on his next two starts off 80 (both times 5th in very crowded handicaps over 1m). A bit below the par on his next two starts (9th of 16 and 11th of 16 when upped again in distance over 1m2f) but back to his best at the end his 2011 campaign with two seconds over 7f (at Catterick, soft, in October off 77 and at Southwell, in November off 75). Powerful Presence finished his 2011 with a 4th of 14 over 1m at Southwell off 77 and after more than 5 months off he's come back in style 17 days ago at Southwell winning a Class 4 handicap over 7f off 79. In that race at Southwell Powerful Presence beat Masai Moon only by a neck, Memory Cloth was third 1/2L behind Masai Moon and All Right Now 4th a neck behind the third but the other five finished way behind (the 5th Sos Brillante was 5L behind the 4th and finished 4th in a Group 3 next time out) and that form has been boosted by the subsequent performances of Masai Moon who has bolted up next time out winning with ease another Class 4 handicap at Southwell off the same mark (upped 6lb now) one week later and Memory Cloth did the same winning in very good style a Class 3 handicap over 1m at Ripon off the same mark (upped 8lb now) last week. Powerful Presence won that race recording his best ever RPR (91) and even if the final distances were close he was battling very well against horses of good quality and well handicapped as they proved soon after and both second and third had already had a race while the David O'Meara-trained 6yo was on his seasonal debut that day still he liked the battle throughout and answered his rider's every call and simply would not be denied. Powerful Presence looks sure to add more wins to his already impressive record (5 wins and 5 seconds in 15 starts since he joined O'Meara) and off today's mark of 81 on a ground he likes and over his perfect trip of 7f with David O'Meara's stable going great guns (Penitent and War Poet among the winners last week) this seems to be a big chance. His main rival today should be Karaka Jack who won at Doncaster (7f, good) on his seasonal debut and finished 4th in the Spring Cup (1m, soft) on his last start. Strong claims for the David Nicholls-trained 5yo but off his current mark of 85 he could be more or less in the grip of the handicapper (won off 76, 79 and 81 even if he raced of today's mark last time out). Good chances also for Snow Bay who is a stablemate of Karaka Jack and could be the front-runner of this race (but disappointing on his last 5 outs when never better than 8th) and for Celitc Sultan who would prefer the ground to dry out more but was a good second behind Karaka Jack at Doncaster one month ago. Less interesting but with decent chances also Naabegha (twice winner in France, once over 7f, and good second on his Polytrack debut last time out at Lingfield) and Imperial Djay (3-time winner over 7f and decent 5th last time out at Thirsk).

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May TIMELESS ELEGANCE (15:40) made a satisfactory reappearance last time out after a fair absence and she’s likely capable of better still with a run under her belt, she looks the type to keep progressing and has joined an extremely capable yard with this sort of horse, so she ranks as a bet in quite a competitive heat. A winner for Howard Johnson over 6f-7f, her last victory came off a 2lb higher mark in July 2011, so she’s far from handicapped out of things today, especially as she’s only raced twice since. One of those starts came far too soon and she dropped out tamely but her reappearance effort at Catterick over 7f was one of promise, showing good early speed and just tiring in the last couple of furlongs. She looked an obvious candidate to come on for that effort (even though she had won fresh in the past) and the step-back in trip looks the obvious move too, especially given she possesses plenty of speed (capable over 5f too). A mark of 74 won’t be the ceiling of her ability, especially as she comes from a late-developing family and it’s interesting that Graham Gibbons comes here to ride, instead of Musselburgh where the David Barron yard have a couple with chances. She’s worthy of a small/medium sized bet as I think she deserves to be favourite, although money for Mawjoodah is a worry, that one is no value now and there’s certainly legs in the 13/2 about Timeless Elegance, as I have her at about the 9/2 mark. She’ll be suited by the drop back to 6f, comes from a yard who are going well and she still looks capable of running to a mark well into the 80’s in this sort of contest. -- I’ve been waiting for the step up to 7f or further for INDIAN ARROW (17:00) and he’s certainly capable of winning off a mark of 55, emphasised when having no luck over 6f on his penultimate start. Although not showing a great deal last time, I think there are reasons to think he can improve for the step up in trip and the scorching pace likely today will suit, so I believe he can prove his last time out form all wrong. Still a maiden after 10 starts, he’s always shaped to me that he isn’t quite quick enough for sprinting trips, often making ground late on but never getting there in time. He needs them to go quick up-front and they certainly did that on his penultimate start, where he received no luck in-running when absolutely cruising and it’s fair to say, he’d have won well. I think he needs to be held-up off a strong pace and those tactics weren’t deployed last time, as he was prominently placed off a moderate gallop. That would have suited most horses but Indian Arrow really needs the leaders to come back to him, and that obviously never occurred with a runaway front-runner making all and winning. He still ran respectably, but was beaten 4.75 lengths. In theory, today’s contest will be run in an ideal fashion, especially as there’s at least three confirmed pace-setters and there should definitely be a good gallop on. Michael O’Connell is more experienced than most of these apprentices and I just hope they hold Indian Arrow up off the likely strong pace, as if they do, then he has every chance here. That’s his want and although there are small doubts as to whether he’ll act on slower turf, for a handicapping perspective, he’s worth a chance today. He steps up to a trip that I think might be ideal, especially on a sharp circuit, will get the race run to suit and is easily capable of winning off a mark of 55. Plenty in this race come in with chances but Indian Arrow should be priced closer to the 11/2 mark than his current odds and is also worth a standard sized bet. Bets 15:40 Wolverhampton – Timeless Elegance; 2pts @ 13/2 Boylesports (bog) 17:00 Musselburgh – Indian Arrow; 2pts @ 8/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May 3.00 Musselburgh - 3pts win Silver Blaze @ 6/1 (PP) it's difficult to weigh up how realistic Clayton's mark of 85 is considering he beat nothing at Southwell on debut - despite romping away with it - and I think I'll sidestep him for a horse who I believe to have some solid form in the book and is definitely capable off his mark of 85 in my opinion. Similarly to the aforementioned top-horse, the strength of Prussian's form is also questionable in my eyes. However, Silver Blaze confirmed his promise of last year when comfortably scoring from a 78-rated animal by 2 3/4l at Southwell. Last year he was unfortunate not to get off the mark. Initially requiring the experience on debut, he stepped up plenty to go down by a nose at Redcar when shaping as if further than 7f would be ideal. He was clear with the Charlie Hills-trained winner. Next time out he went down by just 3/4l over a mile at Newcastle on soft ground in a race where the form has worked out well. The winner ran a storming 2nd in the Classic Trial at Sandown last week to now be rated 106 (possibly flattered) and my selection was 4 1/2l clear with that one at Newcastle. The 3rd and 4th also won their next races. On this evidence, a mark of 85 does not look beyond him at all. He has conditions to suit today and fitness on his side. The yard's questionable form is one issue but that only reduces the size of the bet from big to a solid medium win bet and I fully expect a huge run. 3.30 Musselburgh - 3pts win Borug @ 7/2 (Boyles) This Kingmambo colt could be a very astute purchase for the James Tate yard who have taken over the reins from Godolphin's Saeed Bin Suroor. He shaped with abundant promise on his first run for his new yard at Windsor a couple of weeks ago, and if building on that, will take a bit of stopping today I feel. He was denied a clear passage for the majority of the Windsor straight and although unlikely to have troubled the comfortable winner, he'd have been a clear 2nd on the day having returned from a six-month absence. He was campaigned over a range of trips last season by his former connections and he basically didn't stay when sent over 1m4f and even two miles. It appears fairly clear that he holds a fair deal of pace and the 1m1f trip on offer today should be ideal for him. His two wins have come over 7f and 1m but has run some fair races over 1m2f, and his effort last time suggested this inbetween trip should prove spot on. Even with the trips not being ideal, he had a stiff ask on unfavourable terms especially behind Slumber in the Derby Trial and then at Leicester on his final run of the season. Handicapping off this sort of mark is what he needs and he shaped as if this mark wouldn't be beyond him when he has his conditions and a bit of luck in running. Hopefully he'll get the latter today and get another win under his belt. 4.00 Musselburgh - 3pts win Imperial Djay @ 7/1 (PP) Ruth Carr's horses tend to do well in bursts where the yard are flying and her runners are looking in decent shape at the moment and that bodes well for my selection today. He ran a promising race on his second start of the season at Thirsk last time on soft ground over this 7f trip when staying on into 5th of 14. It was a decent race and the yard appear to be in a bit better form now. He's a winner off 1lb higher in the past (Newcastle last June) so he's fairly handicapped and will find the ground better today as he does tend to like a sound surface. However, it shouldn't be too sticky at Musselburgh today and he has won on good/soft before. The presence of a few front-runners in the field bodes well for his style as he prefers to come from off a good pace. James Sullivan takes the ride for just the third time on this horse. On his two previous efforts he finished 2nd and 1st - and hasn't ridden the horse since piloting him to success at Newcastle the aforementioned time. Everything points to a good effort here I feel. 4.30 Musselburgh - 2pts win La Bacouetteuse @ 10/1 (VC) This horse was reintroduced to flat action this season over 1m1f here in April and ran respectably considering he stays a good deal further and will be much more at home over today's trip with that run under his belt to give him a fitness edge. He was briefly campaigned over hurdles in the winter when running fairly well given his modest ability on the flat in some fair novice and maiden hurdles. His career lies in races such as this, however, over middle to long distances in weak affairs typically on the Northern tracks. He did well under these conditions last season when putting in a string of good efforts, including two victories over 10 and 11 furlongs and a couple of subsequent placed efforts over further. He proved he stayed when 2nd over two miles on his final run of the year on the level, under an inexperienced pilot, and stronger handling today will suit. He clearly is capable of running well here and 1m6f might just be ideal for him now. He seems to enjoy decent ground on the whole, but can run well on soft. The good to soft going here today should be absolutely fine and there could be scope for another success off his current mark of 61. He is 7lbs higher than his most recent (comfortable) win but his placed efforts off this mark the last twice suggests he can score again soon and the trip, ground and track appear in his favour. His reappearance effort was good to suggest he remains in form, and could be a tad overpriced today.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May « 4:30 » Musselburgh FRI 4 MAY 2012 AU REVOIR COLIN SHAND HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) Winner £3,881 Good To Soft 1m6f Number of runners: 12 Light The City 2pts to win @ 11/2 bog (Betvictor) A race with a lot of horses standing a small chance here but none of them proved to be well handicapped or in sparkling form of late so I'd reduce the field to the three market leaders which are Light The City, Ad Value and Mohawk Ridge. The first two have both a similar profile as they come here from a winning effort last time out and have to face a 6lb hike for that win but my selection is Light The City who will go up 10lb for his impressive win back on turf (had won already on seasonal debut on Fibresand over 1m4f in March) at Catterick 9 days ago (1m4f, soft) and the Ruth Carr-trained 5yo is therefore still 4lb ahead of the handicapper off today's mark and he is one of the few runners of this race who has already won over this trip (won over 1m6f at Haydock in July 2010 on soft ground) and looks open to more improvements. Ad Value was good but way less impressive on his last win that came over today's C&D and on ground good to soft (8 Apr). His new mark is 6lb higher so he doesn't have any advantage over the handicapper but he's just 4 and this will be only his 11th start on turf so he's still very lightly raced and could well be able to improve again and build on that seasonal winning reappearance. The top-weight Mohawk Ridge is the only other former C&D winner but his seasonal comeback was a bit below his par and off today's mark he's probably not so well handicapped. Still he has a decent chance and his the main danger for the two recent winners among the other runners.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May « 5:00 Musselburgh FRI 4 MAY 2012 SCOTTISH RACING BEST BET APPRENTICE HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-65) Winner £1,941 Good To Soft 7f30y Number of runners: 12 BEST TRIP 2pts to win @ 5/1 bog (William Hill) I guess Best Trip could be one of the fastest horses in training in the first 2f. He's usually a rocket out of the gates but after a successfull 2011 (4 wins and 4 top 3 finishes racing last off a mark of 80, all over 5f and 6f) he lost his form and even after a long break he didn't show anything like his best during his short spell this winter on Polytrack. He's now been switched from Richard Guest to Brian Ellison and is racing off a mark of 55 today. Of course there are many doubts as he is up in distance today, was running very bad when last seen (fading tamely in the last furlong and even at the 2f mark he was usually close to be already beaten even when allowed to enjoy his beloved front-running tactic), and has shown nothing on his previous 5 starts on turf (all his best efforts on Polytrack) but his last three efforts on turf were off 80, 77 and 74 and off 80 he was still able to finish 5th of 14 in a Class 3 handicap over 5f at Epsom (good to firm, 20 Apr 2011) so today's mark could be a gift if he handles the conditions (raced only once on soft ground and that was on his sole start at two when finished 14th of 15 and wouldn't count it as a prove he didn't handle the ground) and of course if he's fit enough after a 67-day break. Btw I have a good confidence on Brian Ellison's work who's usually a trained very capable of improving this kind of horses. There are a couple of speedy types in this race but the main rival seems to be a hold-up horse (Cyflymder) who's been in very good form since the winter but off his current mark (65) has found it difficult to win (three times 4th off this mark in his last three outs that followed his two wins on AW off 60 and 62 two months ago). From stall number 1 Best Trip should be able to get the lead after the break and if he's fine with himself and handles the ground off today's mark he could make a winning debut for his new trainer even if facing a trip that could sound a bit too long for him on his previous form (btw this track often helped front running types to perform well over longer trips).

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May

This weather has caused havoc but hopefully we should be able to get stuck into the flat season properly. Taking one today. 3.30 Musselburgh 1 NR and we're left with 11 for this Class 4, 9f handicap. I did note the market leader, Borug, as running well lto but I just feel it's hold up style ain't ideally suited to this track so 3's looks a bit short to me whilst Muffin McLeay, although clearly in good heart, will have to improve again. Instead, I'm taking: Staff Sergeant (3pts EW @ 15/2 William Hill BOG) - Only won once in 13 starts but there's enough to suggest that will change soon. Firstly, this race likes to race up with the pace and I can only see one other prominent type in the race which could well mean our horse can dictate proceedings and have the race run to suit. A good low draw in 3 will help that. Next is a return to softer ground and the longer trip, as well as the ease in grade. All these things are definite ticks in the box. If we class Southwell as a 'soft ground' track (yes, I know it's fibresand but you get my drift!), its record on this type of going reads 1-2-6-2-5-2. Has shown in the last 2 years it's ability to go well fresh, winning 2 years ago at Southwell and finishing a head 2nd on its reappearance 12 months ago. That would indicate no issues with the 216 day absence. Races off 77 today and has some good form every time it has raced off a mark in the 70's. 7 tries off a 70-something mark; head 2nd at 7/1 over 10f, 7th of 17 where Class 3 / good ground didn't help, 4th of 16 where again good ground was evident, 2nd of 11 over 8f on soft, 5th of 13 on good to soft; this is a race it's performance can be marked up as it was involved in a 4 way battle for the lead and the 4 in front at the finish all came from off the pace, 2nd of 12 over an inadquate 7f on soft (that was Class 3 too) and a promising 5th of 16 on unsuitable ground in a higher grade. Whilst its win record ain't that promising, I can find enough in there to suggest that, with optimum conditions, this one could be tough to beat. I think that may be today and I'm happy to get involved at a nice EW price.

« 3:30 » Musselburgh FRI 4 MAY 2012 CORE (OIL AND GAS) LTD HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) Winner £5,175 Good To Soft 1m1f Number of runners: 12 STAFF SERGEANT 3pts to win @ 9/1 bog (Boylesports) Staff Sergeant is a lightly raced 5yo (only 13 starts so far) whose best two efforts came on his seasonal debut winning easily at Southwell over 1m in April 2010 and finishing 2nd, beaten a head, at Ayr over 1m2f in May 2011. His form at the end of last season was improving: 4th of 16, 2nd of 11, 5th of 13, 2nd of 12 and 5th of 16 (best of those who raced with the pace) all in handicaps over 7f-1m-1m1f at Hamilton, Redcar and Ayr and all off marks of 77 and 78. Both seconds came on soft ground so no problem with today's ground. Jim Goldie and Graham Lee partnered for a nice winner yesterday here at Musselburgh (20/1 shot) and the trainer saddled another winner last week at Thirsk while the former Grand National winning jockey has had only that winner but has been riding on the flat very little since he switched from the other code (only 8 rides in April). So this seems a very good opportunity for Staff Sergeant as this is the best time to catch him, he finished the 2011 in very good form, stable going back to good form of late, good jockey hungry of successes for sure, perfect mark, no problem with ground and the trip. Of course the main problem is to beat today's 10 rivals (Vito Volterra is a NR). The biggest dangers should be Borug, Muffin Mcleay and Judicious. Borug is the top weight and gets Paul Hanagan on board today. The 4yo colt won twice in 2010 and wen close a couple of times last year racing mainly in tough companies (Listed and Group 3). He shaped well on his seasonal debut (16 Apr) at Windsor over 1m (surely a trip too short for him) when finishing 3rd of 14 even if well beaten (4.5L) by the winner (the impressive Moon's My Name). A lot on his favour but ground is a big worry as he raced only twice on ground easier than good/good to firm and finished last of 6 (beaten 10.5L) in 2010 and 8th of 11 (beaten 28L) last June. If the ground dries a bit more could be the biggest danger for my selection but it stays on the soft side can't have it. Judicious makes his debut for Keith Dalgleish and has had a very good 2011 with Geoff Harker winning 3 times (all over 1m2f) but all on good to firm. Judicious wasn't disgraced on good to soft at Haydock (3rd of 8, beaten 1.5L) in September (1m4f) but didn't show his best when 6th (7.25L behind the winner) on his seasonal comeback at Doncaster 5 weeks ago (reported lame after the race). One could expect some improvements with the new training but his last win came off 75 (79 today) his last two efforts were poor (13th on his last start in 2011) and softish ground wouldn't be a plus for him for sure. Muffin Mclealy is a 4yo trained by David Barron who has had only 5 starts in his career (all in 2011) winning in impressive style his second last at Hamilton (1m1f, soft) in an handicap off 70 and finishing second of 16 next time out (again over 1m1f at Hamilton in August but on good ground) off his new mark of 80. Highly unexposed horse and his yard has been producing many winners of late especially with horses on their seasonal comebacks so it has to be feared even if racing off 82 he would probably need to produce his career best to win this race (possible of course since he was on the upward curve last year and is so lightly raced). So I'd rate Muffin Mclealy and Borug as two serious candidates but both are priced around 7/2 atm and so the value seems to be on my selection that has a lot on his favour and if at his best could well be able to beat all these rivals.

Staff Sergeant wins at 11-2. :clap Well done to both of you, watched the race before even seeing this thread, flicking between racing and snooker. Graeme Lee won the race from the front as predicted above, dictated the pace and won well. Nice prices too, both beating the SP.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May Boy did I need that one. Thought he was going to be collared.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May

Jalors 5.10 Wolverhampton. 1 point win. Third run back after a lay-off and that's an angle I like. This year's form isn't nowhere near good enough, but last year's is and a mark of 64 on his bet form gives him every chance. The trip and surface isn't a problem and the more than capable Luke Morris does the steering. 12/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Gavlar17]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May

Staff Sergeant wins at 11-2. :clap Well done to both of you' date=' watched the race before even seeing this thread, flicking between racing and snooker. Graeme Lee won the race from the front as predicted above, dictated the pace and won well. Nice prices too, both beating the SP.[/quote'] Massive thank you RussP and Edberg. I was at Musselburgh today and had an unbelievable strike rate of 5 from 7 which included a wedge on Staff Sergeant and Powerful Presence. Never had anything like it in my time!! Excellent stuff from the pair of you. Gav.

[jtw1]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May Was there myself today and had 4 winners!!!! inc La Bacouetteuse @ 14/1 [sorry BTR had left for the track before you had posted and managed to pick it off my own back , but a big :clap to you never-the-less] However i have to thank RussP for posting his selection on STAFF SERGEANT :nana Other 2 were PRUSSIAN and TATLISU . If i knew how to post pictures on here i would so any advice would be appreciated .

[jtw1]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May STAFF SERGEANT [ATTACH]2488[/ATTACH]

[Gavlar17]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May

Was there myself today and had 4 winners!!!! inc La Bacouetteuse @ 14/1 [sorry BTR had left for the track before you had posted and managed to pick it off my own back ' date= but a big :clap to you never-the-less] However i have to thank RussP for posting his selection on STAFF SERGEANT :nana Other 2 were PRUSSIAN and TATLISU . If i knew how to post pictures on here i would so any advice would be appreciated .

Good stuff mate! I had lord buffhead, tatlisu, Staff sergeant, powerful presence and Lindoro. As always the Richard Fahey/Paul Hanagan combination over this C&D served up a treat. Really difficult to oppose. Hopefully the luck carries into the weekend now.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May Some nice winners guys, well done. :clap

[RussP]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May Cheers guys :ok Glad you boys had a great time at the races, making some decent profit in the process. Was pleased with the Sergeant. It was yet another example where the market had no consideration for the shape of the race. It was clear in my mind that there was no pace and that, coupled with the fact Musselburgh favours prominent types at the best of times, any horse that liked to lead out was a good shout. Graham Lee gave it a great ride to land the spoils, dictating from start to finish. Well done to Edberg, taking the same horse and to all other winners. Looks like it was a pretty good day :clap

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May Thanks guys it was a good day indeed two 3pts @ 9/1 and 4pts @ 9/2 winners don't happen everyday (I had a nice little treble together with Wild Sauce that had drifted out to 4/1 and so it was a 274/1 shot missed for a nose but thanks God it was the first of the three and it hurted less). It was very nice to see Russ was on Staff Sergeant too and compliments to BTR for that very nice winner, La Bacouetteuse, even if we were against there (I had Light the City who seemed the likely winner coming into the last 2f but could manage only a 3rd in the end). Here's hoping for more days like this ;)