jump racing 23/4/2012

[beaker1]

DAY ONE AT PUNCHESTOWN 3.40 KILDARE HUNT CLUB FR SEAN BREEN MEMORIAL CHASE A cross country race to kick off the meeting so much focus will inevitably fall on Enda Bolger who runs Zest For Life who won this race two years ago but fell when 9/4 favourite 12 months ago leaving his stablemate to win the prize. Willie Mullins has taken a keen interest in cross country racing for the first time this season with Scotsirish and Uncle Junior winning good races at Punchestown and Cheltenham and he now tackles this genre of race with Boxer Georg who was second in last season’s Aintree Foxhunters’ behind Baby Run. SHORT LIST ZEST FOR LIFE BOXER GEORG NO NOTIONS CONCLUSION Cross country races are usually dominated (win and place) by the leading fancies and especially inIrelandso I make no apologies for short listing what I imagine will be the market principals and suggest we look at boxing them up in combination forecasts and maybe a tri-cast. ZEST FOR LIFE will have been trained for this race by the master cross-country trainer, Enda Bolger, who ended Wedger Pardy’s bid for a third consecutive win in this race in 2010 and then fell last year as favourite before bouncing back to finish second in another cross country race at this meeting later in the week. Jumping can be a problem though as he has fallen or unseated his rider on six occasions in 22 starts, three times over these Punchestown cross country races. BOXER GEORG could outclass these if he takes to it. He will do if he runs to the form to his second to Baby Run at Aintree last season but the problem is that he hasn’t come close to showing that form since and was only eighth in the same race at Aintree just 12 days ago beaten 22 lengths. Then again, he did make a bad mistake at The Chair (only the third fence) and that is not a race to make a notable early mistake in so perhaps we should cut him some slack for that. He doesn’t win very often (just a maiden hunter chase to his name) but this is the weakest cross country race of the meeting so this looks a good opportunity for him to go close. NO NOTIONS is only a six-year-old but so was the same yard’s Zest For Life when he won this race and he can go well too in the colours of J P McManus. Pulled up in a hot hunter chase at Fairyhouse last time out but the fact he was only 16/1 for that race suggests he can make his mark in this lesser race and he had previously won an open point-to-point. 4.20 EVENING HERALD CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE A Grade 1 since 1998 won by two subsequent Champion Hurdlers and a dual Champion Chaser since the turn of the century, this is the first of a number of strong races for favourites in the Grade 1 races at the meeting and the market leader has won six of the last nine runnings (and 11 of the last 18). Trifolium looks set to be the first of three heavy odds-on favourites in the Grade 1 races on the opening day (best price 4/7 at the time of writing) ahead of Alderwood who, in turn, is well clear in the betting of the other three runners who are all trained by Willie Mullins who was unrepresented last season having won the previous two runnings. Just in case you do fancy taking on the big two in the betting, no winner has failed to start outside of the first four in the market and the biggest-priced winner was Moscow Flyer at 10/1. The best guide has been the Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle here back in the autumn as five of the last seven winners (and 8 of the last 13) contested that prize won by Sous Les Cieux.MidnightGame was well beaten on that occasion beaten 21 lengths on testing ground (trainer says he prefers decent ground which he won’t get here) before finding his form mid-season only to lose it again in the spring and he is the only Royal Bond runner in today’s line up. With regards to the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in which Trifolium was only beaten 1½ lengths into third with Simenon finishing plum last, the Cheltenham Festival’s traditional curtain-raiser has featured a far from insignificant five of the last nine winners but also note the Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Novices’ Hurdle, a Grade 2 run at Fairyhouse over Easter won by Trifolium’s main rival, Alderwood (Midnight Game beaten 18 lengths into sixth), a race that has been contested by three subsequent winners in the past 11 years. Others stats to note are that 14 winners of the last 15 winners were aged no older than six which is the big stat against the eight-year-old novice, Alderwood, and only two of those 15 winners did not win or finish second last time out which is where Alderwood comes into his own as he is the only horse that did. SHORT LIST TRIFOLIUM (ALDERWOOD) CONCLUSION No horse fits the criteria to a tee but TRIFOLIUM fits the stats best only failing on account of a non top-two finish last time out and that was when beaten less than two lengths in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle so I am sure we can forgive him that and he can become yet another winning favourite in this race. Ability to handle this testing surface is sure to be a factor and Trifolium has really impressed on heavy ground this season including over this course so he is very much the one to beat though his odds-on price reflects that. After winning the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle despite having a rough time of things during the race, ALDERWOOD then followed up in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse that has been a pretty good guide to this race where he might have got an easy lead. Being an eight-year-old is the big statistical negative with him but, then again, he is the only top-two finisher last time out which has been a strong trend. As for his heavy-ground form, he doesn’t have any of winning note and looks happier on a better surface so that is the main statistical egative for his chance.MidnightGame has been running in the right races but running poorly in those racesand he is far from certain to enjoy this ground either and, being a Flat horse, I am not sure Simenon will either. If the front pair are to be shaken up, then maybe Laganbank is the one to get amongst them as he is proven in heavy ground, in fact, he beat Alderwood by a length on such a surface back in September though the runner-up was giving 6lbs and has improved no end since then whereas Laganbank has failed to win in five subsequent starts. The obvious pair do look a cut above their rivals on form and wellbeing so if Trifolium is just too short a price for you, then the obvious forecast might be of more interest if this is a race in which you want to get involved. 4.55 BOYLESPORTS.COM HANDICAP HURDLE 28 horses are declared for the first of many ferociously competitive handicaps over the next five days, this being a 2m affair over timber where the last nine winners all started at double-figure odds and only one of the last 11 winners carried over 10st 5lbs so it might be worth chancing our arm on a couple of relative outsiders in the bottom half of the handicap. SHORT LIST CEOL RUA GODSCOUNTY MUNSAAB LEROY PARKER ROCKY WEDNESDAY CONCLUSION CEOL RUA is set to carry 10st 6lbs and I’m not quibbling with 1lb (10 of last 11 winners carried no more than 10st 5lbs) given that she is trained by Willie Mullins who has been responsible for two of the last five winners. A course winner and a two-time winner this season, she was sent off favourite for a Grade 2 mares’ novice hurdle at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting last time out and ran okay to be fifth of 12 beaten 5½ lengths where being upped to 2m4f may have stretched her and she is back to 2m here. Now having her handicap debut, she is interesting not least as the same yard also won this race last season with a handicap debutant who was also a novice plus she handles a testing surface very well indeed. Tony Martin has two lowly-weighted contenders in Dara Tango and GOD’S COUNTY and I prefer the latter for Gigginstown Stud despite being 0-9 over hurdles. He hasn’t had soft ground for the last seven of those runs stretching back a year but all his best Flat form is with plenty of cut so he could be a very nicely handicapped horse if he relishes this surface which he certainly did on the Flat inFrance. MUNSAAB had a run on the Flat 12 days ago which might have been a prep for this contest and he had gone close in his previous two starts in handicap hurdles and both his wins have been on soft ground so he is another to consider. ROCKY WEDNESDAY has only won once in 14 hurdles starts but that was on heavy ground. Trained by Gordon Elliott for Gigginstown Stud, he only got as far as the first flight last time out but he has a chance on his close second to Idarah at Naas three starts back and he did win over Christmas at a time when the yard were struggling. I would be worried that the ground has turned against the speed horse, Satu, who is bang in form and nicely weighted and David Pipe doesn’t have the best record in Irish handicaps which puts me off his lightly-raced War Singer but a horse with a similar profile I like is Noel Meade’s LEROY PARKER who has also had just three starts and now has his handicap debut. Both his career wins have been with plenty of cut in the ground and his run of 18 days ago (his third over hurdles) may have been just been a tee up for this. Citizenship was my fancy for the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle mainly as I felt the slightly longer trip and uphill finish would suit him but he was disappointing. If he bounces back here I won’t be surprised but he would go against the strong recent weight trends. 5.30 BOYLESPORTS.COM CHAMPION CHASE With the Champion Chaser, Finian’s Rainbow, finished for the season, that leaves Sizing Europe with a gilt-edged opportunity to make up for his controversial defeat at Cheltenham where many would argue he was more inconvenienced than the winner by the omission of the final fence, not so much as he is regarded as a better jumper than the eventual winner but because he had to deviate more sharply to bypass the final obstacle. I would argue, however, that he was more inconvenienced by Wishfull Thinking’s early fall leaving him in front from an early stage. Runner-up to Big Zeb in last season’s renewal, if successful he will emulate Moscow Flyer and Big Zeb who improved on their second place finish 12 months earlier. Six of the last eight winners contested the Champion Chase in which Sizing Europe (second) finished 15 lengths clear of Big Zeb (third) with another 11 lengths back to Gauvain (fourth) and another two lengths back to Realt Dubh (5th) so he will have to be feeling the effects of a hard season, blunder his chance away or plain hate the testing ground not to justify odds-on favouritism. That said, five of those six winners were unplaced atCheltenham so we can get funny results at this time of the year. The next best guide is the Tingle Creek Chase with three of the last eight winners also winning here which also bodes well for Sizing Europe who walloped Kauto Stone by eight lengths in this season’s renewal and on testing ground to boot. The leading Irish guide featuring four of the last eight winners is the Paddy Power Dial-a-Bet Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas won by Big Zeb but he has since twice been walloped by Sizing Europe including on heavy ground in the Tied Cottage but first-time cheekpieces could spark some much needed life into him here. If Sizing Europe is going to succeed in justifying likely odds-on favouritism then he will become just the third winner in the last 16 years to be aged ten or older as only Moscow Flyer and Big Zeb have won for horses aged in double figures. Both that pair were of course former Champion Chasers, as is Sizing Europe, so I’m not sure I would be wanting to take him on purely on age grounds. In fact, only two of the sextet are not aged in double figures, they being Realt Dubh (8) and China Rock (9). Golden Silver (12/1) and Mansony (13/2) are the only two winners since this race was granted Grade 1 status in 1999 that could not to be found in the first three in the betting and prominently-ridden horses have won 10 of the last 11 runnings. Gauvain is the only British raider but the Brits have fared well with six winners in the last 13 years. SHORT LIST SIZING EUROPE REALT DUBH CONCLUSION Very hard to get away from SIZING EUROPE on form and trends with his age seemingly being the only negative barrier but, then again, the last two winners aged in double figures were also previous Champion Chasers so that wouldn’t concern me. The concern at his odds-on price is whether the ground will be too testing (though he has won two pots on such a surface this season and almost added a third over 3m at Down Royal) so maybe more of whether he is past his best for the season having started back on October 1st at Gowran Park. His trainer reports him in rude health though. First-time cheekpices may revive Big Zeb’s enthusiasm but he has looked a shadow of the horse that won this race last season on his last two starts and is a real good ground performer too so, at the age of 11, he is not for me. The main threat to Sizing Europe could come from REALT DUBH who is fresh having only had one start this season when never really at the races in the Champion Chase where I felt that he would come on for the run having looked at him in the paddock. He handles heavy ground and is the youngest horse in the race whose novice form when third to Captain Chris and Finians Rainbow in the Arkle reads pretty well now and he should be in the first three in the betting. Captain Cee Bee hasn’t run for 271 days but goes well fresh but the heavy ground isn’t really up his street. China Rock is the fascinating runner back at two miles as his trainer felt he didn’t stay in the Gold Cup after showing up well for a long time so 2m on testing ground could suit. I just don’t think he is as good a horse as his trainer does and is another that prefers better ground. Gauvain doesn’t look up to this but I do respect Nick Williams when he goes on his travels. In summary, if Sizing Europe is just too short for you then maybe consider Realt Dubh in a forecast or for each-way purposes. 6.05 GOFFS LAND ROVER BUMPER Fourteen have been declared for this bumper (the first of six at the meeting) restricted to four and five-year-olds bought at the Goffs sale where the most notable winners down the years have been Hardy Eustace, Newmill and Glencove Marina. Only five of the 14 runners had run before so there is plenty of guesswork involved here. All five winners between 2001-2005 were five-year-olds but the next five winners were all four-year-olds until five-year-olds got back on the mark last year but they will probably struggle this time being outnumbered 11-3. More winners than not had raced before but not significantly so. Obviously if you are playing, keep stakes to a minimum. SHORT LIST FIRST TO BOOGIE CATAMONGTHEPIDGEONS CURLEY BILL GOLDBOY CONCLUSION Of those to have run before CATAMONGTHEPIDEGEONS has the best form under Rules and his yard (Noel Glynn) have also won this bumper recently and they wouldn’t be blessed with too many horses. Fourth and third on his two starts to date in a point-to-point and bumper when beaten less than five lengths each time, on this surface that experience could be key. FIRST TO BOOGIE fell when leading at the final fence on his only start when favourite to win a point-to-point after quickening six lengths clear so it would appear he has a motor and he also has no obstacles to negotiate either. It will be interesting to see how fancied he is in the market. Noel Meade won this bumper with a debutant last year so his CURLEY BILL is quite interesting also having his debut here though I just wonder on this very testing ground whether we should be looking at those with racecourse experience. Willie Mullins had won two of the previous five renewals and relies on GOLDBOY who is also unraced. I’ll short list that pair of the debutants. 6.40 GROWISE CHAMPION NOVICE CHASE The third Grade 1 on the card and the third Grade 1 race where we are likely to have an odds-on favourite that is hard to get away from in Sir Des Champs. In fact, the best price at the time of writing is as short at 2/7 so the Grade 1 races aren’t really punting races today unless you have a gut fancy for an end-of-season turn-up result. This is the Punchestown Festival’s equivalent of the RSA Chase which was first run in 1992 and won by the Martin Pipe-trained nine-year-old, Milford Quay, (who was the first of five British-trained winners but disappointingly none take their chance here) and it was upgraded from a Grade 2 2m5f event to a Grade 1 3m1f race in 2007 so just five runnings to work off in reality given the new race distance. The first three winners since the elevation to a Grade 1 had all won at least three times over fences and including over three miles. Sir Des Champs has yet to run over 3m but Mullins was aching to him in the RSA Chase until his owner pulled rank as he had First Lieutenant for that race and I see him being even better at that trip judging by the way he finishes his races. SHORT LIST SIR DES CHAMPS SHOP DJ CONCLUSION Thus far, all four favourites (Zaarito, Cooldine, Pomme Tiepy, Aces Four and Quel Esprit) have been beaten, the first three comprehensively so but Aces Four (who had won at Aintree in between) was looking like going three places better than in the RSA Chase until falling at the final fence and Quel Esprit was brought down last season just as the race was hotting up. A big run in that Festival race can take too much out of a novice, it certainly did for Cooldine three years ago who had the look of a horse that had not come close to recovering from those Festival exertions when beaten here and that should be the only real concern for connections of SIR DES CHAMPS. Then again, Cooldine had a really gruelling race in a frenetically run RSA Chase whereas Sir Des Champs had a super silky passage when winning the less competitive Jewson and over a shorter distance to boot. It can be tricky working out how much a race has taken out of a horse (Edgardo Sol being a good example at the weekend having won at Aintree very easily the previous week) but the difference here is a 40-day break as opposed to just eight days. So far this race has had an end-of-season feel to it which has resulted in three relatively-surprising winners at 7/1, 9/1 and 16/1 in small-field events in the last five years since it became a Grade 1 event but as Sir Des Champs is at the top of my Gold Cup list at present, I have no great desire to want to try and find one to beat him. Two of the last three winners ran at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting (Kempes was pulled up in the Powers Gold Cup on heavy ground he hated in 2009 and Rare Bob finished fourth in the Irish National in 2010) and only SHOP DJ of today’s field has that profile having finished fourth in a mares’ chase so, on that basis, she is the other horse to make the short list. She also won the mares’ hurdle at this meeting last season and handles a testing surface. It has been young novices that have held sway so far with all five winners aged no older than seven (8+ are 0-13) which is against Mossey Joe (9) and Frisco Depot (8). 7.15 FINLAY MOTOR GROUP INH FLAT RACE Another bumper to close, this one just for four-year-olds (25 of them!) and 11 are having their racecouirse debut so only a race for a small interest if any. That said, of the nine runnings, seven were won by fancied horses starting at no bigger than 10/1, that not the last pair. SHORT LIST THE BIG EASY CHAKISTO DIRECTOR’S FORUM SAFFRON WELLS SIZINGSAHARA CONCLUSION Jessica Harrington is a trainer to note for Punchestown Festival bumpers so her THE BIG EASY makes the short list and hopefully he won’t get the wobbles under pressure like Ernie Els who is he named after. He has had a run which I’m taking the view will be an advantage from an experience perspective on ground as bad as this and it was a good one too when second to his stablemate, Jezki, at Leopardstown and the winner is smart and went to Cheltenham for the Festival as a leading fancy. Harrington also runs DIRECTOR’S FORUM who has had two more stabs at notching up a victory without success but he is improving with each run and placed the last twice and that extra experience on this ground could be an advantage. CHAKISTO and Bonheur Secret both ran well when third and fourth on debut three weeks ago and there was a good word for the former that day. With that run now under his belt, he could be a big factor here. Henry De Bromhead’s Sizing Rio is interesting having won his only point-to-point, Willie Mullins has won this race three times since 2004 so his SIZING SAHARA may be the pick of the debutants though John Kiely’s SAFFRON WELLS could push him for that honour. Kiely has built a great reputation for his bumper horses and he won this race in 2003.

[BKI Punter]

Re: jump racing 23/4/2012 6:40 Punch Mossey Joe 1pt win - 10/1 (Boyles) Sir Des is a huge fav, but not a backable price. His form in Ireland isn't exactly bombproof and the Jewson might not be the greatest form. Mossey Joe has been impressive over fences so far, blundered badly last time and has been off since. Ground is a worry, but he's guaranteed to get the trip and has an engine. At the price, he's worth a small bet.

[Edberg]

Re: jump racing 23/4/2012 The date is wrong ;) 3:40 » Punchestown (IRE) TUE 24 APR 2012 KILDARE HUNT CLUB FR SEAN BREEN MEMORIAL CHASE (FOR THE LADIES PERPETUAL CUP) (5yo+) Winner €6,210 Soft 3m Number of runners: 18 CLONBEALE VACATION 2pts to win @ 7/1 bog (Paddy Power, Boylesports) First race of this 2012 Punchestown Festival and as usual it's a bank race to start the meeting. Boxer Georg and Zest For Life are the logic favourites of the race and the main alternative seems to be the JP McManus-owned No Notions but I'll try with a surprise here as Clonbeale Vacation has a lot in her favour. This 7yo mare started her career in PTP 13 months ago and struggled a lot in her first season collecting just one win in a Maiden PTP at Ballindenisk in May (good/yielding) but she didn't complete 5 times in her first 8 outs and didn't seem anything special until something changed in the last couple of months and the Lalors seem to have found another mare that could be as good as Carrigeen Lechuga, the stable star who had won 5 PTPs in 2011 and has won twice over fences under rules in 2012 finishing 5th in a Group 3 last time out (rated 128). Clonbeale Vacation won her last two starts and did it in style winning at Tralee 5 weeks ago (heavy) and especially last time out (two weeks ago) when she bolted up in a Mares' Open at Loughanmore (yielding) winning by 20L in a 10-runner field of good quality as it's proven for example by the second Along The Lane who had won her previous PTP beating Whinstone Dani, who won next time out, and the time before Along The Lane had finished 3/4L second beating among the others Lastchanceforlisa (5th that day) who has easily won her next start in PTP and has made a winning debut under rules winning at Fontwell 4 days ago. So this Lalors' mare is in the form of her life and has been just improving in her last few starts so she could be really anything and makes her debut under rules carrying 10st-9lb thanks to the 5lb allowance given by the experienced amateur jockey Miss EA Lalor who has enjoyed a very good 2012 so far (2 wins, 2 seconds and 3 thirds with only 12 rides). So Clonbeale Vacation gets 12lb from No Notions, and 17lb from Boxer Georg and Zest For Life and that could be a lot. No Notions represents the Irish trainer with the best record in this kind of races (E Bolger) and wears the colours of JP McManus as well as Mount Sion (same training). No Notions has won two PTPs (first in January 2011, the latest 4 Mar 2012) and had finished second in his debut under rules in an hunters' chase at Fairyhouse in February 2011 (well beaten) making his comeback in 12 weeks ago at Clonmel (heavy) where he finished 10th 36L behind Boxer Georg. No Notions was a starter also in the hunters' chase of the Easter Festival at Fairyhouse two weeks ago (Nina Carberry on board that day) but he was pulled up. The 6yo son of Oscar has surely got a bit of quality and gets one of the best riders (JT McNamara who has won 2 of his 3 rides in UK this season but is 0-20 in Ireland). It stands a chance but doesn't look anything special. Zest For Life is one of the two top-weights and will carry 11st 12lb with Nina Carberry on board. The 8yo is trained by E Bolger and has a huge experience in this kind of races. Zest For Life won one in PTP (in 9 starts and that win came in January 2010) and once under rules in 12 starts and that win came in this race at the Punchestown Festival 2010 carrying 11st-7lb on good ground with Nina Carberry on board. In another cross country at 2011 Punchestown Festival the horse finished second (JT McNamara on board) but his next five starts have been not that exciting: F-PU-PU-5th-4th (both under rules and in PTP). Last time out he finished 4th at Cork in an hunters' chase (LP Flynn on board). That was probably just a warm-up before this race (two weeks ago) but still the horse isn't that reliable, doesn't win that often and will still have to carry a big weight here. The favourite of the race is the other top weight Boxer Georg. The 10yo trained by Willie Mullins won a PTP in 2009 and achieved his best ever result at the Aintree Festival 2011 when finished 2nd behind Baby Run in the Fox Hunters' Chase and went on to finish 6th in an Hunters' Chase at the 2011 Punchestown Festival (20L behind the winner Salsify). The horse got a long break since that race and came back at Clonmel (2m4f, heavy) in February where he won a Maiden Hunters' Chase beating 2L Zardsky (who won next time out). That was a preparation race before the Festivals and Boxer Georg finished 10th and 8th in the Fox Hunters' Chase both at the Cheltenham Festival and at the Aintree Grand National Festival beaten 34L by Salsify and 22L by Cloudy Lane. In this field the horse stands surely a big chance but it's priced at 6/4-15/8 at the moment and that's way too short imho. He recorded a 140 RPR when second behind Baby Run and never better than 116 in all his other starts and I do feel my selection can perform a 110 RPR today so that would not be enough to beat her and Boxer Georg should raise up his level. Moreover Mullins' horses have been mainly disappointing in the last few weeks with a big numbers of short-priced favourites (have a look at yesterday's card at Cork for example) all beaten.

[Edberg]

Re: jump racing 23/4/2012 « 4:55 » Punchestown (IRE) TUE 24 APR 2012 BOYLESPORTS.COM "OFFICIAL BETTING PARTNER TO THE IRISH SOCCER TEAM" HANDICAP HURDLE (GRADE C) (4yo+) Winner €19,500 Soft 2m Number of runners: 25 WAR SINGER 2pts to win @ 7/1 bog (Ladbrokes and many more) This is a very complicated and interesting handicap hurdle (Grade C) and there are a lot of horses with a lively chance but I'll try with the least experienced of all that makes his debut in handicap off a handy mark (115). War Singer was a very good horse on the flat in France. From April 2010 until June 2011 War Singer won 5 good quality races in 8 starts on the turf (once second, once third (in a Listed) and once 4th) collecting almost €65,000. The horse was bought at Arqana last summer for €100,000 and moved to David Pipe's yard. Still aged 4 he made his debut in December racing in a Maiden Hurdle at Newbury where he finished 4th of 11 in a race won by Colour Squadron over Montbazon and Ericht so horses that reached their OR peaks in the next few months being rated respectively 144, 147 and 136. He was priced just 10/1 for that debut and surely needed that run after a 180-day break and he showed that getting very tired in the final stages and making some minor mistakes over a couple of flights. Still he showed plenty of ability and was soon recorded as a horse to keep an eye on. War Singer came back on track two days before the day of the year racing at Taunton in Novices' Hurdle (again over 2m1f) and this time he got a bit of support in the market and was sent off as the second favourite at 100/30. The race was won by Grumeti who was making his debut and has kept improving since that nice debut finishing 3rd in the Triumph Hurdle of the Cheltenham Festival and winning the 4yo Juvenile Hurdle at the Aintree Grand National Festival (now rated 153). Second was the Paul Nicholls-trained Ted Spread (favourite of that race) who won next time out and got a rating of 135 and third Ifyouletmefinish who finished second behind Pearl Swan in his next start, won over the same C&D in February and got a rating of 135 too. War Singer was 5th but was not bad at all. He compromised his chances taking a strong hold in the first part of the race and even if he was able to take the lead 3 out before a mistake 2 out killed his chances and he found no extra afterwards. Pipe realized he had still a bit of work to do with his horse and gave him a 3-month break. War Singer has come back at Newbury one month ago (again over 2m1f) and finished 4th in a race won by Claret Cloak (now rated 133). It looked just a warming-up effort as he was kept in rear and made headway approaching 3 out closing up turning for home but once driven he stayed on the same pace and wasn't able to match the favourite in the final furlongs. That effort was in my opinion just needed to give him the chance to start in handicaps and to find a good handicap off a low mark to final show up his best skills. That's what I think of course but he has to prove it first. Still at current prices (which are surely short enough to think connections are confident) off a mark of 115 he could really be racing off a very lenient mark even if this is a hot race but Pipe's yard are in good form (8 winners and 7 more top 3 placements in the last fortnight) and Pipe has sent just 3 hurdlers to Punchestown last year collecting a win so he should be pretty confident to send his horse from Devon to this hot handicap in the Punchestown Festival. The opposition is big and of a high level. The main dangers are Leah Claire, Ceol Rua and Citizenship. They looks closely matched as they have raced against eachother this year and with current weights they stand similar chances since Citizenship (who is one of the two C&D winner) beat Leah Clair off 5lb better terms in the Boylesports handicap hurdle at Leopardstown in January and was a disappointing but very unlucky favourite in the County Hurdle dominated by Alderwood at the Cheltenham Festival, Leah Claire beat Ceol Rua off 6lb better terms at Wexford in November and finished second behind Citizenship before falling last time out when still looking good at Fairyhouse and Ceol Rua improved since that second behind Leah Claire finishing second again next time out at Gowran and winning a Listed at Fairyhouse in January before she finished 5th (was the favourite) in a Grade 2 at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival two weeks ago. These three seem closely matched and at current odds Leah Claire probably has more value especially since both Jessica Harrington and Willie Mullins have their own yards not firing at the moment. Jonjo O'Neill-trained and JP McManus-owned Kandari was brought down last time out but finished second behind Attaglance (who won at the Cheltenham Festival next time out) in his second last start at Market Rasen two months ago and could be still well handicapped off 122. Of course the list of the contenders is longer as horses like Snap Tie, Scottish Boogie, Burrenbridge Lodge and many more could be dangerous if able to reproduce their best form.

[Edberg]

Re: jump racing 23/4/2012 4.20 Punchestown (EVENING HERALD CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE (GRADE 1)) + 5.30 Punchestown (BOYLESPORTS.COM CHAMPION CHASE (GRADE 1)) + 6.40 Punchestown (GROWISE CHAMPION NOVICE CHASE (GRADE 1)) TRIFOLIUM + SIZING EUROPE + SIR DES CHAMPS 5pts to win @ 2/1 bog (many books) I'm going with a full stake treble in the three main events (all Grade 1) of the first day of the Punchestown Festival. Trifolium has to beat Alderwood who won both at the Cheltenham Festival and at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival but still the Gigginstown House Stud-owned 5yo should be way better especially if he's able to reproduce the form that saw him finishing 3rd last time out in the Supreme Novices' at the Cheltenham Festival behind Cinders And Ashes and Darlan. No chance for the 3 runners trained by Willie Mullins. I still think Sizing Europe is the best chaser in Europe over 2m (his loss against Finian's Rainbow in the Queen Mother's Chase of the Cheltenham Festival was a bit unlucky for sure) and Big Zeb proved to be no match for him more than once in the last couple of years so that should be again the case today with the other 4 runners that should find more than a stone to match Sizing Europe. Sir Des Champs has been the sensation of the year in this kind of races over fences (for me closely matched by Flemenstar but that's another story). The 6yo trained by Willie Mullins for Michael O'Leary is already the favourite of the 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup as he kept his unbeaten record (3 hurdles and 4 chases) achieving his last success in the 2012 Cheltenham Festival when he destroyed his opponents in impressive style in the Jewson Novices' Chase. Rated already 162 this French-bred 6yo has at least a stone in hand against today's rivals and it would be the biggest upset of the year if he's gonna lose this race. Three very short priced favourites but I can't see any of them losing today.

[BKI Punter]

Re: jump racing 23/4/2012

6:40 Punch Mossey Joe 1pt win - 10/1 (Boyles) Sir Des is a huge fav, but not a backable price. His form in Ireland isn't exactly bombproof and the Jewson might not be the greatest form. Mossey Joe has been impressive over fences so far, blundered badly last time and has been off since. Ground is a worry, but he's guaranteed to get the trip and has an engine. At the price, he's worth a small bet.

Mossey Joe w/o Sir Des Champs - 4pt win - 5/2 (Boyles).

[BKI Punter]

Re: jump racing 23/4/2012 4:55 Punch Snap Tie 1pt win - 14/1 (PP) Obvious worries are the soft ground and long lay-off, but he's just too well in on best hurdle form not to take a chance a the price and a meeting Hobbs did well at last year. Was a high class hurdler in his prime, going close in the Supreme and some top hurdle races after that. If he retains his ability he'll obviously go close off 137.

[BKI Punter]

Re: jump racing 23/4/2012 5:30 Punch Big Zeb w/o Sizing Europe 4pt win - 5/2 (Boyles) Another price that looks huge. If this race was without SE, BZ wouldn't be bigger than 15/8. There's been money for Realt Dubh, but his seasonal debut in the Champ Chase wasn't the most encouraging, and doesn't warrant him being so short in this market. Big Zeb is regressing but there's no way he should be such a big price to beat the rest of the field. Captain Cee Bee hasn't been seen for ages and usually needs a race to warm up, Gauvain's going to get outpaced and probably stay on through beaten horses. He's tempting without the fav, but I worry about how far back he'll find himself. China Rock usually flatters to deceive. The way I see it, I'm being offered 5/2 about Big Zeb in a match bet with Realt Dubh. No question.

[fintron]

Re: jump racing 23/4/2012 4.55 Punchestown David Pipe's reputation with handicappers is well known and he saddles a very interesting runner at Punchestown this afternoon in the shape of WAR SINGER. Five years old, the selection landed a Flat race in France for his previous trainer and has been sent hurdling with Pipe this season. His hurdles debut was an entirely respectable effort, finishing fourth at Newbury over 2m around some smart types. The winner, Colour Squadran, is useful, Montbazon (second) has a big reputation, and even the fifth, Constant Contact, has bolted up in a couple of minor hurdles races since to boost the form and put War Singers current 115-rating into some sort of perspective. Next time out Pipe slapped a tongue strap on and War Singer finished fifth over a similar trip at Taunton. Time has since shown he bumped into some really smart types, as winner Grumeti is a real tool and arguably the star hurdler of the 2m division, and Ted Spread, second, has boosted the form by winning since. Even the fourth, Rowan Tiger, has been running well in handicaps off marks in the 120's - and there wasn't much between War Singer and Rowan Tiger that day which again lends credence to the argument 115 is a good mark for my selection. Last time out War Singer took a backwards step. There was money for him at Newbury where he finished a disappointing 4th of 8, against moderate novice opposition. However, it was his third run afterall, and it would perhaps be foolish to analyse the performance too closely. Despite the US influence in his breeding, he's shown on his racecourse outings to date that he handles juice in the ground as he won on heavy in France. The sticking point may remain the trip, he's often lacked an extra gear over 2m to date but if the testing conditions and large field make this a test then it wouldn't surprise in the slightest to see Scu come there cruising on the bit before unleashing him to plunder the prize for Britian, especially since he's blue on Oddschecker and the money appears to be down. War Singer 7/1 Blue Square, 0.5 pt EW 5.30 Punchestown I'm a big Sizing Europe fan and few could begrudge him of victory here after what happened at Cheltenham, when the final fence was ommitted, and, having been ridden on the inside rail, he then lost key ground avoiding the obstacle before getting chinned close home by Finian's Rainbow. However, he is at his best at Cheltenham, on spring ground, and here at Punchestown on slower ground, the old boy BIG ZEB might be capable of causing an upset, just as he did twelve months ago. Last year Sizing Europe came here off the back of victory at Cheltenham and had beaten Big Zeb by 5l. In this race Big Zeb managed to find five and three quarter lengths of improvement to reverse the placings. This year, he is looking to narrow a gap of 15 lengths on Sizing Europe. It think the suggestions he is regressing are fair, but, even so, if first time cheekpieces can perk him up then the 15/2 for him to win could look quite juicy if the favourite turns in a laboured effort. Big Zeb 15/2 Stan James, 0.25 pt win

[Tedthewolf]

Re: jump racing 23/4/2012

4:55 Punch Snap Tie 1pt win - 14/1 (PP) Obvious worries are the soft ground and long lay-off, but he's just too well in on best hurdle form not to take a chance a the price and a meeting Hobbs did well at last year. Was a high class hurdler in his prime, going close in the Supreme and some top hurdle races after that. If he retains his ability he'll obviously go close off 137.

Cracking Call 16/1 winner :clap