Wigan v Man UTD April 11th

[staffy]

[TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Wigan Athletic v Manchester United (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.39 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.17 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[pg_yid]

Re: Wigan v Man UTD April 11th Under 2.5 goals @ 2.2 (Bluesq, Totesport, 888, Betfred) Wigan have been underish at home, with 69% of their games going under 2.5 goals. 43% of United's away games have been unders, so an average of the two makes a provisional 55% chance of unders. This is perhaps not completely accurate when you consider that most of United's away games are against sides with a better defence than Wigan, and similarly most of Wigan's home games have been against sides with worse attacks than United. However, if we look at similar match-ups we a fair amount of unders games: Wigan 1-1 Chelsea Wigan 0-4 Arsenal Wigan 0-1 Man City Wigan 1-2 Spurs Aston Villa 0-1 Man Utd QPR 0-2 Man Utd. These IMO are the relevant games as Wigan have not conceded as many goals as other clubs (Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves) at the bottom. Four out of these six games were unders. Although the Blackburn 0-2 Man Utd game may also be seen as relevant. Wigan's defence is normally not too bad at home, but there is danger of them conceding a lot, as we've seen from their home games against Arsenal, Blackburn and Sunderland. Also United do sometimes score a lot on the road. However, Wigan have been playing very well so I think the chances are they will not implode defensively tonight. Also I think at this stage of the season United will be more concerned with getting the win than scoring a lot of goals. Fixture congestion and the likelihood that they will rest some players reduces the chances of a big away win further. The bbc preview suggests Wigan will be eager not to lose by a heavy margin due to the importance goal difference could play in the relegation battle, which I think is a good point. Martinez does not normally get his team to be too gung-ho if they go behind, which should help this bet. United have the best away defensive record in the league, and Wigan have scored the fewest goals at home, so you would expect United to keep a clean sheet. All these points considered, I think there is around a 50% chance of unders tonight, with the obvious scorelines of 0-1 and 0-2 being the major players, but with Wigan's recent form and the unlikely possibility that United may relax somewhat now the league title is almost certain, you can't rule out the 0-0 and 1-1 and even 1-0 scorelines either. The bookies odds of 2.20 suggest a 45% chance which means if I am correct this is a value bet.

[ThusPrider]

Re: Wigan v Man UTD April 11th You beat me there for the game review, pg. But this bet looks for sure now we've both agreed! Wigan vs Manchester United Some of the previous things said in the QPR - Swansea game also applies to this game. Being a stats hater, you still can't ignore the fact that Wigan have lost to Manchester United for donkey's years. After than Cup final defeat Wigan have never beaten Manchester United in Ferguson's reign, and has an aggregate score of somthing like 21 - 0 in the previous games. True, their last 5 - 0 smashing was unfortunate with Sammon being sent off for an extremely harsh red card, but the statistics are frightening. Most mugs including me fancy Manchester United to win this, and smashing in a few goals to nil in the process, with Wigan having a reputation of crumbling against big sides in recent seasons. But there are many other things to be considered this time. That defeat against Chelsea will have dampened the mood around the squad. However, Ivanovic being charged for his punch on Maloney (debatable who started it!), and Martinez getting an apology from chief Riley will have boosted Wigan's spirits. Knowing they were bigger underdogs against Chelsea and nearly got a result, they will feel anything here against Manchester United will be a bonus. For Manchester United, it looks like they have won the title for sure. Manchester City is having some major slip up and I cant see them getting any silverware this season. Will that slow Manchester United's charge against a poor Wigan side? God knows what will happen on the pitch. They were extremely clinical against Blackburn in good finishing, but Wigan will know they can do what Blackburn did, they could even nick all 3 points should they manage to survive Fergie time. De Gea probably had the best saves to make on that day. Though It would take something spectacular to beat De Gea. Being the lowest scorers in all 4 divisions, wasteful finishing has cost Wigan this season. Their defense has been much tighter now Martinez is playing 3 full-backs, and Wigan will know that a 0 - 1 loss is acceptable with goal difference key being so tight at the bottom. That makes the likelihood of a thrashing even less likely. They have managed to hold big teams the likes of Liverpool and Chelsea to 0 - 0 and 1 - 1 draws respectively in similar nights at the DW, when they had a tough run of fixtures, and I fancy this to go unders. Ferguson will rotate his squad as Nani recovers. Hugo will not feature for Wigan as he is still a few weeks away from returning. Under 2.5 goals 6/5 widely available. 10/10

[blackcrow]

Re: Wigan v Man UTD April 11th Man Utd -1.5 @ 2.40 pinnacle Man Utd have not conceded in their last 5 EPL games, while they have scored at least two goals in 4 of these games, and like them to keep this run going. Wigan have showed some spirit of late but they do not have the players to be able to stop Man Utd, who are focused on another league title. Wigan have struggled against Man Utd in the past, allowing at least two goals in each of their last 5 games against them, scoring 21 goals in total, and not a goal in return. With these two teams at the opposite end of the tables, the gulf in class between them should see a comfortable Man Utd win here Season record: 139-198 (-12.21)

[ThusPrider]

Re: Wigan v Man UTD April 11th

You beat me there for the game review, pg. But this bet looks for sure now we've both agreed! Wigan vs Manchester United Some of the previous things said in the QPR - Swansea game also applies to this game. Being a stats hater, you still can't ignore the fact that Wigan have lost to Manchester United for donkey's years. After than Cup final defeat Wigan have never beaten Manchester United in Ferguson's reign, and has an aggregate score of somthing like 21 - 0 in the previous games. True, their last 5 - 0 smashing was unfortunate with Sammon being sent off for an extremely harsh red card, but the statistics are frightening. Most mugs including me fancy Manchester United to win this, and smashing in a few goals to nil in the process, with Wigan having a reputation of crumbling against big sides in recent seasons. But there are many other things to be considered this time. That defeat against Chelsea will have dampened the mood around the squad. However, Ivanovic being charged for his punch on Maloney (debatable who started it!), and Martinez getting an apology from chief Riley will have boosted Wigan's spirits. Knowing they were bigger underdogs against Chelsea and nearly got a result, they will feel anything here against Manchester United will be a bonus. For Manchester United, it looks like they have won the title for sure. Manchester City is having some major slip up and I cant see them getting any silverware this season. Will that slow Manchester United's charge against a poor Wigan side? God knows what will happen on the pitch. They were extremely clinical against Blackburn in good finishing, but Wigan will know they can do what Blackburn did, they could even nick all 3 points should they manage to survive Fergie time. De Gea probably had the best saves to make on that day. Though It would take something spectacular to beat De Gea. Being the lowest scorers in all 4 divisions, wasteful finishing has cost Wigan this season. Their defense has been much tighter now Martinez is playing 3 full-backs, and Wigan will know that a 0 - 1 loss is acceptable with goal difference key being so tight at the bottom. That makes the likelihood of a thrashing even less likely. They have managed to hold big teams the likes of Liverpool and Chelsea to 0 - 0 and 1 - 1 draws respectively in similar nights at the DW, when they had a tough run of fixtures, and I fancy this to go unders. Ferguson will rotate his squad as Nani recovers. Hugo will not feature for Wigan as he is still a few weeks away from returning. Under 2.5 goals 6/5 widely available. 10/10

+12 units Fully deserved win for Wigan. That was a legitimate goal that Moses scored... everyone gets a striker/defender to stand in front of the opposition's goalkeeper and it was ridiculous how the linesmen ruled it out. No Utd player even complained. United player. But I guess you can argue that the corner that Wigan scored from should have been a goal kick, but thats bullshit as if you concede from a corner every time there will be 10 goals in every game. Superb strike by Maloney.

[blackcrow]

Re: Wigan v Man UTD April 11th

Man Utd -1.5 @ 2.40 :(

Did not see that one coming. Well done to those who were on the under Season record: 140-199 (-11.77)

[ThusPrider]

Re: Wigan v Man UTD April 11th Well done on Teh other picks, Mr Crow.

[MPLouis]

Re: Wigan v Man UTD April 11th

Under 2.5 goals @ 2.2 (Bluesq, Totesport, 888, Betfred) Wigan have been underish at home, with 69% of their games going under 2.5 goals. 43% of United's away games have been unders, so an average of the two makes a provisional 55% chance of unders. This is perhaps not completely accurate when you consider that most of United's away games are against sides with a better defence than Wigan, and similarly most of Wigan's home games have been against sides with worse attacks than United. However, if we look at similar match-ups we a fair amount of unders games: Wigan 1-1 Chelsea Wigan 0-4 Arsenal Wigan 0-1 Man City Wigan 1-2 Spurs Aston Villa 0-1 Man Utd QPR 0-2 Man Utd. These IMO are the relevant games as Wigan have not conceded as many goals as other clubs (Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves) at the bottom. Four out of these six games were unders. Although the Blackburn 0-2 Man Utd game may also be seen as relevant. Wigan's defence is normally not too bad at home, but there is danger of them conceding a lot, as we've seen from their home games against Arsenal, Blackburn and Sunderland. Also United do sometimes score a lot on the road. However, Wigan have been playing very well so I think the chances are they will not implode defensively tonight. Also I think at this stage of the season United will be more concerned with getting the win than scoring a lot of goals. Fixture congestion and the likelihood that they will rest some players reduces the chances of a big away win further. The bbc preview suggests Wigan will be eager not to lose by a heavy margin due to the importance goal difference could play in the relegation battle, which I think is a good point. Martinez does not normally get his team to be too gung-ho if they go behind, which should help this bet. United have the best away defensive record in the league, and Wigan have scored the fewest goals at home, so you would expect United to keep a clean sheet. All these points considered, I think there is around a 50% chance of unders tonight, with the obvious scorelines of 0-1 and 0-2 being the major players, but with Wigan's recent form and the unlikely possibility that United may relax somewhat now the league title is almost certain, you can't rule out the 0-0 and 1-1 and even 1-0 scorelines either. The bookies odds of 2.20 suggest a 45% chance which means if I am correct this is a value bet.

Excellent pick (and ThusPrider) :ok