jayalexander Posted May 3, 2012 Author Share Posted May 3, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Baby Driver was a NR. That leaves 6. All lost. Flat 13/69 AW 8/48 -16.47pts in total (+4.53pts with returned winning stakes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 3, 2012 Author Share Posted May 3, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) I understand your point, but highly doubt that having info on forums dramatically reduces prices. I'm hardly Hugh Taylor ;) I was also aware of the slight AW ground changes, I suppose these could be investigated further collating daily speed figures? I'm not backing all of these selections blindly. Maybe should start laying them?! I can see much more value in other runners in the field as it currently stands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Jay If this forum isn't trawled by at least 1 bot on a regular basis, then it's the first horse racing forum that I've been on for a while that isn't. Also, it's possible that, independently of you and your system, other techniques (eg. data mining) could have been employed to identify the fact that beaten favourites have value and then exploited them. On the other hand, the system's recent downturn is probably down to bad luck and next week the system will turn the corner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 3, 2012 Author Share Posted May 3, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 34 - 4/5/12 Musselburgh 4:00 Santefisio 4:30 Maid Of Meft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santos_ Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Contrary to popular belief, the speed of AW tracks does change with the weather conditions. AW tracks get 'sloppy' and slower in wet weather. They also get slower in cold weather. I always thought it was the opposite...as in the rain makes the surface more compact and therefore faster? so has the opposite effect to when there is rain on turf. Thats what I thought anyways I may be wrong :p Also Jay I remember when I was a lurker last year on here and I saw this thread and tried it out about a week before it hit a really long losing streak but the time I used it gave plenty of winners. Im sure it's just down to luck that this year hasn't gone as well. kutgw! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Santos Last year, I read a US study that was performed on poly tracks. It showed that rain has a cooling effect which causes a contraction in the polymer. So yes, the surface, in theory, ought to become more compact and therefore faster. In practice, however, they found that the surface doesn't 'settle' and therefore becomes less compact and slower. In addition, the rain cause the horse's hooves to lose grip because polymers don't absorb water. In cold weather, again the polymer contracts but because of the lack of settling, the track actually becomes slower. In warm weather, they found that the polymer expands, the surface becomes more compact and therefore faster. In addition, the polymer becomes more flexible and an improvement in the energy return of the surface is observed thus improving its speed. The study also noted that although the above effects were relatively small, they were measurable. If I can find the study, I will post the link. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Thanks guys. Glad you have become more than a lurker now, Santos! What does 'kutgw' mean? Usually I'm down with the kids but this one baffles me, haha! When rain has fallen at Southwell, the going is quite often described as std/slow, and i'm sure I've seen similar at other AW tracks when it's been similar conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Jay As far as I know, Southwell's surface is Firbresand which is a mixture of sand and polypropylene fibres. It tends, as far as I know, to ride slower than polytracks. The US study considered polytracks but made no mention of fibresand so can offer no comment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Yes I know it's fibresand. I was just trying to support your argument that substantial rain can make the going slower on AW. Two more losers today :( Flat 13/71 AW 8/48 -18.47pts in total (+2.53pts with returned winning stakes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santos_ Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Thanks guys. Glad you have become more than a lurker now, Santos! What does 'kutgw' mean? Usually I'm down with the kids but this one baffles me, haha! Haha apologies it means keep up the good work :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 35 - 5/4/12 Doncaster 5:50 Glass Mountain 7:25 Farlow Goodwood 4:05 Winter's Night Newmarket 2:00 Fury 5:30 Elkhart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) WE HAVE A WINNER!!! Typical that I didn't back it and that it came in at a tasty 15.2! Hopefully this is a turning point... Flat 14/76 AW 8/48 -8.27pts in total (+13.73pts with returned winning stakes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 6, 2012 Author Share Posted May 6, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 36 - 6/5/12 Hamilton 3:25 Stonefield Flyer Newmarket 2:35 Law Of The Range Salisbury 4:45 Gabrial's Gift Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 6, 2012 Author Share Posted May 6, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Blank today. Flat 14/79 (17.72% win rate) AW 8/48 (16.67% win rate) -11.27pts in total (+10.73pts with returned winning stakes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 6, 2012 Author Share Posted May 6, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 37 - 7/5/12 Bath 3:45 Shot In The Dark 4:15 Cahala Dancer Beverley 2:45 Kyllachy Dancer 4:00 The Osteopath 5:00 Kathleensluckylad 5:30 Northern Bolt Kempton (AW) 5:50 Haamaat Windsor 2:30 Mack's Sister 3:00 Emkanaat 5:05 Big Creek BIG DAY! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) The Osteopath was a NR. Haamaat won, but at a lowly price of 2.38 Flat 14/87 AW 9/49 -19.04pts in total (+2.96pts with returned winning stakes) TERRIBLE YEAR! Glad I didn't go into this with my wallet blazing - hope anyone else hasn't either! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 38 - 8/5/12 Catterick 7:10 Madam Macie Southwell (AW) 4:15 Sygnature 4:45 Cone Donkey 5:15 Rise To Glory Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Four more losses! Flat 14/88 AW 9/52 -23.04pts in total (-2.96pts with returned winning stakes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 39 - 9/5/12 Chester 2:05 Good Morning Star 4:45 Bordoni Kempton (AW) 5:50 Titus Bolt 7:30 Rocco Breeze 8:00 Uprise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elchubb Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) 100-1 winner! Get the f*ck in! Still shaking! :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Well done Jamie East-end Butcher, well done Elchubb! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Good Morning Mr Bookmaker!! Take that!!! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Nooooooooooooooooooo, I ******* missed it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) That'll teach me not to pay attention to these! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Nooooooooooooooooooo' date=' I ******* missed it![/quote'] You are a plank Jamie!!! Tut tut.. You miss a 200/1 winner and a 100/1.. You would want a good ass spanking!!!!!!!!!!!!11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) I was watching the racing at Chester and thinking what a nice man Marwan Koukash is, then the ruddy horse goes on to win! Still, it gives me good thoughts about the future... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) That'll teach me not to pay attention to these! At least, Jay, it's back to winning ways and them some. 'Kin well done.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Good Morning Star does the business at 94.25, which is a record since I started 3 years ago. The remaining 4 runners lost, but who gives a ****! Flat 15/90 AW 9/55 +70.21pts in total (+87.29pts with returned winning stakes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) +70.21pts in 39 days Well done today Jay :ok Can I ask what the "(+87.29pts with returned winning stakes)" means? Bit rushed for time so can't look through the entire thread but I don't quite get what you mean by "returned winning stakes"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) +70.21pts in 39 days Well, the first figure is the returns without including the 1pt wager. I had been deducting that from the total but started to wonder if I should be doing so. I did ask whether I should be including it but no one replied. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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