Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) +119.45pts in 50 days. FINISHED

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 23 - 23/4/12 Pontefract 3:15 Tajneed Windsor 6:55 Achalas

[Elchubb]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Are you sure about Achalas Jay?:unsure Sporting Life don't have as going off favorite in it's last race!

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Yeah, it ran in France and is a BF from that race :ok

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year)

No winners. Flat 8/50 AW 7/29 -3.05pts

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 24 - 24/4/12 Southwell (AW) 6:00 Ostentation Wolverhampton (AW) 3:20 Imprimis Tagula

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Imprimis Tagula NR, Ostentation 2nd.

Flat 8/50

AW 7/30 -4.05pts

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 25 - 25/4/12 Catterick 5:15 Regal Acclaim Kempton (AW) 6:20 Cut The Cackle 8:55 The Wee Chief

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Regal Acclaim wins at 3.94

Flat 9/51

AW 7/32 -3.11pts

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 26 - 26/4/12 Beverley 4:20 Sygnature 5:25 Magic Bounty Brighton 6:50 Prince Of Sorrento 7:55 Katmai River Wolverhampton (AW) 3:20 Country Road 5:35 Hierarch

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year)

Day 26 - 26/4/12 Beverley Meeting abandoned Brighton 6:50 Prince Of Sorrento 1st @ 6.32 7:55 Katmai River 1st @ 4.3 Wolverhampton (AW) 3:20 Country Road 1st @ 2.43 5:35 Hierarch

Flat 11/53

AW 8/34 +5.94pts

A wonderful day for the system!

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 27 - 27/4/12 Doncaster 2:45 Dancing Welcome 3:20 Electric Qatar 4:30 Flying Pickets 5:00 Rocket Rob Sandown 1:15 Bear Behind 2:20 Side Glance

[Aidymac]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Well done mate, nice going.. "No woman no cryyyyy, no woman no cry".. :lol

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year)

Side Glance was a NR. The first runner of the day lost by a head but our second runner did the business at 3.81, which makes a loss of 1.19pts today. Flat 12/58 AW 8/34 +4.75pts in total

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Should I be including the winning stake in the profit? So far I haven't, but as it is, the winning stake is adding to the minus count?!

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 28 - 28/4/12 Doncaster 5:05 Flag Of Glory 7:10 Pendragon Haydock 6:25 Master Bond Ripon 2:20 Dolphin Rock 3:30 Gulf Of Naples 5:10 Boucher Garcon Sandown 4:50 Robemaker

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Doncaster 5:05 Flag Of Glory 7:10 Pendragon NR Haydock 6:25 Master Bond 2nd Ripon 2:20 Dolphin Rock 3:30 Gulf Of Naples 1st 5:10 Boucher Garcon 2nd Sandown 4:50 Robemaker NR Two non runners and an odds on winner. I'm taking the decision to take the odds on out of the equation as I did earlier in the thread.That leaves 4 runners for the day. No winners. Flat 12/62 AW 8/34 +0.75pts in total

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 29 - 29/4/12 JUMP RACING ONLY

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 30 - 30/4/12 Kempton (AW) 2:15 Sergeant Troy 4:15 Isdaal 4:45 Titus Star 5:15 Cape Rock 5:45 Dancheur Windsor 7:10 Big Creek Wolverhampton (AW) 6:25 Strong Vigilance 6:55 Daniel Thomas 7:55 Brenin Taran 8:25 Adranian

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Windsor was abandoned, which left 9 runners. All ran, none won. -9pts on the day :(

Flat 12/62

AW 8/43

-8.25pts in total

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 31 - 1/5/12 Kempton (AW) 7:05 Illustrious Lad Lingfield (AW) 3:00 Irons on Fire Yarmouth 3:10 Coach Montana 3:40 Mawaakef 4:40 Twinkled

[3 legs and a wheel]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Jay Do you have a spreadsheet containing all of the past results for your system?

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year)

Day 31 - 1/5/12 Kempton (AW) 7:05 Illustrious Lad Lingfield (AW) 3:00 Irons on Fire Yarmouth 3:10 Coach Montana 3:40 Mawaakef 1st @ 3.78 4:40 Twinkled NR

Flat 13/64

AW 8/45

-8.47pts in total (+12.53pts with returned winning stakes)

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year)

Jay Do you have a spreadsheet containing all of the past results for your system?

Nope, no spreadsheets. I'm too lazy for all that.

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 32 - 2/5/12 Kempton (AW) 4:55 Reachforthebucks Pontefract 3:30 Georgebernardshaw

[3 legs and a wheel]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year)

Nope' date=' no spreadsheets. I'm too lazy for all that.[/quote'] Jay Pity, I wanted to bung it through some analytical software that I have developed to see what came out t'other end. Hey ho.

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year)

No winners today. Flat 13/65

AW 8/46

-10.47pts in total (+10.53pts with returned winning stakes)

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 33 - 3/5/12 Brighton 5:40 Baby Driver 6:40 Visions of Johanna 7:10 McConnell 8:10 Colourbearer Lingfield (AW) 3:40 Lionrock 4:40 Lisahane Blog Musselburgh 3:40 Sangar Can't believe how poorly this is going this year. Such short priced winners compared to last!

[3 legs and a wheel]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year)

Day 33 - 3/5/12 Can't believe how poorly this is going this year. Such short priced winners compared to last!

Do you think that: It is weather related given that this is the wettest spring since God was a lad? A lot of people are using the system thus causing the odds of your selections to fall along with their value? After all, you have had good results in the past with this system. Something else? Any or all of the above? BTW, I noticed that you dropped jump racing this year. Could I ask why and whether including jumps would have made the current situation better or worse?

[jayalexander]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Thanks for your thoughtful response, 3legs. I did wonder about the weather but would have thought that at least the AW would have held up even if the turf didn't, so don't think that can be the problem. I dropped jumps as not only was it performing badly last year, but I didn't think that a system that is essentially based around beaten favourites at the start of the flat season would gain much from beaten jump favourites, although I'm sure there could be an angle there somewhere. At the end of the day it could all just be down to bad luck. There's been several placed and Cape Rock in particular lost by under a length @ 32! Could you suggest anything?

[3 legs and a wheel]

Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Contrary to popular belief, the speed of AW tracks does change with the weather conditions. AW tracks get 'sloppy' and slower in wet weather. They also get slower in cold weather. It could well be just down to luck but other possibilities do spring to mind. There's a lot of bots out there looking for angles, anomalies and ways of turning a buck. Bots even trawl forums these days. It could be that the value of beaten favourites has been spotted and either reduced or totally eliminated. The fact that the odds are well down on last year tends to support this, especially if this year's SR is roughly the same as last year. That's the problem with putting info into the public domain. Once it's in, people will use it if it's successful and value will quickly disappear.