chris34 Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 2.25 Lingfield The end of the season is near with the Winter Derby day finally arrived, this is an interesting listed affair over 7f which has some interesting sorts involved in it. Bannock is a speedy front runner but yet to tackle this longer trip which is a worry and the fact he was well held on this surface in Dundalk on final start and wide draw no help neither so will really need to be at top of game. Had a hard campaign last year and horses dont forget that at such a young age but yard continue in good form. Gusto probably won what was a weakish listed event when last seen that form hasnt really been tested since and his official rating may just flatter him slightly. Yard are little quiet at present but is known to handle this surface which is a positive. Pale Orchid is a filly going the right way winning 3 of her last 4 starts, all wins have come over 6f or 5f but did run a good race in 2nd in a 7f race on penultimate start, will need to learn to settle better tackling this longer trip again and upto this level but clearly on a roll and shouldnt be dismissed lightly. For me a risk is taken on Gatepost, he was impressive on first 2 starts as a 2yr old over 5f before running a very eye catching race at Royal Ascot staying on into 5th in Coventry Stakes, failed to build on those efforts afterwards in 3 starts but ground may be an excuse for those runs he is highly regarded by connections with an entry to the 2000 Guineas still a possibility and if proving all is well after break and handling this surface he could just be a class above most of these and plenty of room for improvement in a race likely to be run to suit. 2pt win Gatepost 5/1 boyles 3.25 Lingfield Premio Loco is top rated of the Winter Derby this year, he does carry a 5lb penalty in this field in what looks a strong renewal. His record fresh is reasonable but will have to be at very best to take this. Black Spirit contested some decent races and proved consistent, is another that has to prove well being and effectiveness on this surface. Cai Shen has been subject to some attention in the betting this week but wide draw slowed that money up earlier in the week. Rounded off end of 3yr old campaign with a good win in a conditions event after a generally disappointing season his inconsistency last year is my fear on seasonal reappearance. Junoob has become a real story on the AW this winter have been claimed out of a claimer in December he has since won a conditions event and a listed event last time out, appeared to win with plenty in hand that day this clearly requires more but no forlorn hope to continue improvement. For me Emerald Witness offers some E/W value in a wide open renewal. He returned to form this winter over CD making it 3 from 3 when last seen here off a mark 92 finishing just ahead of Tinshu that day who has since finished 2nd to Junoob in listed event so on that form he holds every chance given he appeared to win with plenty in hand despite the winning margin (nevers win by far with his run style) This race will clearly be run to suit and if putting some disappointing efforts behind him in Dubai he holds every chance over a CD he loves (easy to forgive any horse running in Dubai in my opinion get some very strange results/races out there) 1pt e/w Emerald Witness 20/1 VC 4.00 Lingfield Really good looking handicap despite the smallish field for the prize money. Axiom isnt easy to win with these days and this might just be a warm up for another crack at the Lincoln in which he ran 4th in last year when fresh. Reve De Nuit is passed over given this is on polytrack and all his form on the AW has come at Southwell. Final Drive was a revelation last AW season before perhaps going over the top in Dubai, failed to land a blow from lengthy absence last time out should come on for the run but clearly needs a career best now. Hung Parliament was disappointing when landing on these sures and has something to prove now. Dubai Dynamo isnt that well handicapped but did run a promising race over an inadequate trip on seasonal reappearance, but probably does need some help from the handicap at present. Titan Triumph won last time out just getting the better of Dozy Joe who has since let the form down big time, effectively 4lb out of the handicap here whichmakes it tougher but useful apprentice does take 5lb off which will help but does tend need everything to fall apart in his lap. Kingscroft like most of Johnstons runners was ready for for his reappearance so there is unlikely to be more to come on the fitness front but he ran a game race and a 2lb rise is fair, and although that was over further and has won over this trip all his best form has come over slightly shorter and based on winning form requires a career best effort. George Guru carries an even more impressive profile raced solely on the all weather, with 9 runs 2 wins and 4 placed efforts, unlucky to bump into an improving sort on reappearance at Kempton before beating a subsequent winner next time out and only finding another unexposed improving sort too good last time with 3rd True To Form winning next time out that form looks rock solid and just a 1lb rise leaves him looking very well treated and should again go one better. 5pt win George Guru (Took 5/2 with VC, still available with some non BOG firms) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! Don't know what to make of Gatepost. Might be a fast ground horse, but still should have performed better after the Coventry if he wants to take this over 7f. Not sure what was up with him really. His effort at Royal Ascot was superb - one of the unluckiest runs of last season in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! 3:25 Lingfield: Black Spirit 1pt win 16/1 Bet Victor & Sooraah 1pt win 8/1 Bet365 Black Spirit has not run on the all weather however he has a pedigree that looks as if it would give him every chance of going well. Clive Cox trained the runner up in this race last year and this may have been the plan through the winter. Looking back through Black Spirit's form he probably ran his best race first time up last season when just going down by a short head at Sandown in the Group 3 Gordon Richard Stakes. With a lowish draw too, Black Spirit looks overpriced. Sooraah picked up a valuable handicap at Meydan and although disappointing in a Group 2 subsequently she could go well here back on the polytrack. Sooraah has not run over these extra two furlongs however, she has been noted to be staying on strongly over a mile. With Dubai Millenium and Dubawi in her pedigree Sooraah is very well bred, and William Haggas and Ryan Moore have a fine record when teaming up. 2:25 Lingfield: Pale Orchid 1pt win 10/1 Bet365 & Crown Dependency 1pt win 11/1 Boylesports Pale Orchid has been running well on the all wether and with a proven liking for the surface and race fitness on her side she looks a little overpriced. David Evans has linked up with Luke Morris to good effect through the Winter and the combination could go well here too. David Evans has his string in fine form. Pale Orchid has a little to find on form there is no doubt, however she has a progressive profile and has shown that she has trained on. Crown Dependency started off last season really well picking up his maiden at the first time of asking and then running well at Royal Ascot and Goodwood, where he was a little unlucky. After that Crown Dependency rather went off the boil. He has been gelded and if he comes back to somewhere near the form of his first three starts, then Crown Dependency could be a danger to all. Prices available at time of original posts...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! 3-25 lingfield junoob i fancy junoob in this he looked inpressive when he came from last to first in the trial for this race his record on polytrack reads 112141 and improves to 1121 when the blinkers are applied which they should be on saturday and with his low draw he should be bang there come the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! 2.55 Lingfield - 3pts win Medicean Man @ 9/2 (VC) Jeremy Gask's sprinter really thrived last summer since dropped back to the minimum trip, and has an excellent chance at the weights in this listed event, with everything set to suit him. He was extremely unlucky at Ascot on Shergar Cup day - given a bit of a disastrous ride under Christophe Lemaire when storming home having found plenty of bad luck in the run, and that should have been a handicap win off 106 and then suffered from a stumble at the start at Doncaster when only going down by 1 1/2l in a listed event there. Things caught up with him after, for one reason or another. The yard were struggling for form which is a possible explanation, and he may have just come to the end of his tether after a busy spell. He has a sound record fresh, and the yard are in good form now. His record on the all-weather is strong with one win and two narrow seconds from three attempts, and a strong pace around here for him to thunder down the home straight will suit him down to the ground. He has a great turn of foot which is crucial at this track, and I anticipate a huge run so long as his spell last summer wasn't just a flash in the pan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! 3.25 Lingfield - 2pts win Cai Shen @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) Richard Hannon's runner has been in the spotlight this week as he's been well supported for the race. I may have missed the boat, but he still is some value at 5/1 in my opinion. The yard are in good form, and this horse won well on his return from a winter break last season. Held his form pretty well throughout the year, and ended it in fine style by winning a good race from the front at Doncaster over this trip. He may struggle to run the same race today given his wide draw, but he's capable coming from behind also. His only poor effort came before that when last at Sandown, but had excuses. The ground was probably softer than ideal, he was forced very wide, and his rhythm was messed up when they came down the near rail up the straight - getting snatched up. He should be right for this, and the relatively easy 1m2f trip here should suit on a sound surface. He's one of the highest rated horses in the field, and hopefully the positive market support won't be in vain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! I have been shocking in recent weeks on the all weather so I would take anything I say on this with a massive pinch of salt! 225 - Pale Orchid 6/1 Bet365 1pt Win There are question marks over a lot of the other runners, whether it be fitness, trip or general well being. This filly is flying at the moment and whilst this is a rise in class where she might get found out, I still fancy her to put up a bold showing especially with the mares allowance. 255 - Fratelino 12/1 Bet365 2pts EW & Medicean Man 5/1 1pt win Bet365 Fratellino has course form and was recently sythed down late by Oasis Dancer over 6f having led at the 5f pole. He seems to have plenty of speed and a great draw to make use of it, and could potentially have them on the run on the kick for home. Having only just lost to Oasis Dancer when they last met, the difference in price is surprising especially considering my selection has a 3llb pull. Medicean Man is a promising horse in my eyes, and its previous form reads quite well in the context of this race. He has good form, a good AW record and my only concern would be his fitness after the winter break. 325 - Soorah 5/1 1pt Win - Stan James I probably should leave this race alone but unfortunately I cant help myself! With no real confirmed front runner in the field it could end up being a tactical battle and while I would have rated the chances of Junoob and some of the other hold up horses, there is a good chance they wont be able to quicken up off the bend sufficiently to catch those in a prominent position. I was keen on Cai Shen but the draw hasnt been kind and I dont know what tactics they will try and adopt seeing at the horses has won from the front and from off the pace. On to my selection, I would have preferred a better price (which someone on this thread got last night! :cry) but I think the horse has a great chance from the draw. His best races have come from when he has sat just behind the pace, and provided he jumps out of the stalls well enough then he should get that here. He has form on the track and is match fit but I think even Mystic Meg would struggle to predict how this race will unfold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verisimilitude Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! Riggins 3.25 Lingfield. 0.5 points each way. Showed enough progression in recent runs to suggest he can win race this season. The trip and surface should be fine and the race has plenty of pace about it. Big price for a horse that has every chance of hitting the frame, if of course fit and ready to go. 20/1 Bet365 (bog) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! I have been shocking in recent weeks on the all weather so I would take anything I say on this with a massive pinch of salt! 225 - Pale Orchid 6/1 Bet365 1pt Win There are question marks over a lot of the other runners, whether it be fitness, trip or general well being. This filly is flying at the moment and whilst this is a rise in class where she might get found out, I still fancy her to put up a bold showing especially with the mares allowance. 255 - Fratelino 12/1 Bet365 2pts EW & Medicean Man 5/1 1pt win Bet365 Fratellino has course form and was recently sythed down late by Oasis Dancer over 6f having led at the 5f pole. He seems to have plenty of speed and a great draw to make use of it, and could potentially have them on the run on the kick for home. Having only just lost to Oasis Dancer when they last met, the difference in price is surprising especially considering my selection has a 3llb pull. Medicean Man is a promising horse in my eyes, and its previous form reads quite well in the context of this race. He has good form, a good AW record and my only concern would be his fitness after the winter break. 325 - Soorah 5/1 1pt Win - Stan James I probably should leave this race alone but unfortunately I cant help myself! With no real confirmed front runner in the field it could end up being a tactical battle and while I would have rated the chances of Junoob and some of the other hold up horses, there is a good chance they wont be able to quicken up off the bend sufficiently to catch those in a prominent position. I was keen on Cai Shen but the draw hasnt been kind and I dont know what tactics they will try and adopt seeing at the horses has won from the front and from off the pace. On to my selection, I would have preferred a better price (which someone on this thread got last night! :cry) but I think the horse has a great chance from the draw. His best races have come from when he has sat just behind the pace, and provided he jumps out of the stalls well enough then he should get that here. He has form on the track and is match fit but I think even Mystic Meg would struggle to predict how this race will unfold! 1 out of the 4 wasnt bad and the race went pretty much as planned and at a very decent price! :D Bit dissapointed with Soorah as the jockey had a chance to get him a bit closer to the pace but instead dropped back to the rear. Made some good ground coming home to finish a close 4/5th but gave the leaders a chance! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! 1 out of the 4 wasnt bad and the race went pretty much as planned and at a very decent price! :D Bit dissapointed with Soorah as the jockey had a chance to get him a bit closer to the pace but instead dropped back to the rear. Made some good ground coming home to finish a close 4/5th but gave the leaders a chance! nice winner fratellino ......couldnt understand why he was such a big price !!!! silly really ive had a nice bet on him myself ....happy days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! nice winner fratellino ......couldnt understand why he was such a big price !!!! silly really ive had a nice bet on him myself ....happy days I didnt understand it myself although Im not complaining! EDIT: Iv only just seen the price you got it at as well! That will teach me to pick all my horses the night before! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! Well done Blazing Bailey & Richard. Great price! And Richard you're bang in form I have the feeling. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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