Evertonboy Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 It's been a while since I have shown an interest in horse racing, but after a few bets last week at Cheltenham last week I've got the bug again. I went on a losing run throughout last year and eventually became fed up. This time round I'm going to adopt a different approach. Instead of going out day after day seeking out bets, I'm going to wait and let these bets come to me. How am I going to do this I hear you ask??... I am going to create a portfolio of horses that I will back next time out under certain conditions. I will do this as follows: Every Wednesday I shall buy the Weekender paper with all the previous weeks results, I plan to read it cover to cover and pick up every insight of information, but my main use will be for the results section. I will sift threw each race meeting and make a note of horses I feel may be worth following. It will be trial and error at first but Im going to give it good go. To start with, I will be looking for the following horses: - Met trouble in running and could well have finished a higher placing had they not met trouble - Ran on or stayed on - Earned the comment "jumped well" - Where running well before falling or unseating rider - Beat home higher rated horses - Ran a fast time compared to similar race on card - Outperformed their SP - Distances where strung out - Inconvenienced by the draw - Inconvenienced by pace There will be no set rules for the above, just my own judgement. I will look to update this thread atleast once a week with my shortlist and possbly post in BBOTD any that I back on the day. Constructive critiscm and advice very welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Re: Back on the Nags youve got some good ideas there .......horses that had bad luck in running or had poor draw and still ran well ,running wide can lose 3-5 lengths at the end so anything like that worth noting and you generally get a good price next time they run because the bookies overlook in favour of winners etc good luck with it ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Re: Back on the Nags Yeah........I'm not too sure about horses who met trouble in running. They are often well backed next time out and you've got to be careful that you're not dealing with a professional 'trouble in running' horse - you get horses who always find trouble in running because they haven't got the speed to get out from behind horses or they just like to follow other horses. Or they have to be covered up till the last minute leaving them open to being boxed in etc. There are lots of reasons why horses meet trouble in running and in many case it's because that's the type of horse they are and they'll probably meet trouble in running next time as well The other type I'd be wary of is the running on/staying on horse who runs on from the back to finish 5th when the race is over. Again they're often well backed next time and guess what......they run on to finish 5th when the race is over. They're often running past horses that have been involved at the sharp end and are now slowing quickly, giving the impression that your horse is running fast at the finish. They're often just taking advantage of the fact that they've not been in the race and there's no guarantee that they'll deliver when they are put in the race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Re: Back on the Nags Where running well before falling or unseating rider - Beat home higher rated horses Everyone has there own set of rules and criteria for selections so just my opinion i assume you have included going .for me any form over 3-4 weeks can't be trusted, except of course top class races or horses who have shown they can win after breaks. another is never back any horse as a banker that has fell last time out, you just don't know the intentions of trainer + the fall may affect horses confidence. beat higher rated horse may be down to weights, i would look at the class of races and how strong was the race. AW course form is important this is the difference for me of not having a bet and a strong fancy. i take the view that there are no hypothetical certs , they have had to run well over course and distance in the past. so is going on AW.look out for slow going,it's a real grind to the line surprising what good prices you get for horses who seem to have very good slow going form.you can also dissmiss the same form when going gets back to standard. After making a selection i still try and figure what price i hope i can get, based on possible dangers and class, if it's below that price then obviously no bet. Value is so important. good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Re: Back on the Nags ive had a few winners from that in the past .....if you see a horse run 3 lengths behind say an 85 rated winner and 2nd horse was 84 rated .....good chance they ran to there marks so deduct 3lengths and you have a horse who performed a priliminary 78 .......you can then watch out for this horse next time and compare its "potential mark " against the opposition and ivehad some big priced winner s using this method ...25/1 and 40/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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