Rupert's Cheltenham

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Might as well keep all my runners in one (probably miserable) place. I posted my 5/2 ante-post on Sprinter Sacre in the other threads (had posted that up back in Jan), which I hope is not a problem, but I'll leave it out here, and only stick in those with current prices available. I sincerely hope it's a good week for us all (as long as that definitely includes me!) Tuesday 1.30 Cheltenham - 2pts win Tetlami @ 12/1 (Hills) I sincerely hope I am not going to regret switching my allegiance at the last minute for this one. I always thought I would be on the side of Montbazon here, but I've been quite impressed with Nicky Henderson's supposed second-string(!). Not a bad hand in the race for him, and despite Darlan looking to have a big chance, I can't have him at the price without seeing him complete last time out. Despite travelling supremely well when coming down in the Betfair hurdle, strong-travelling types have fallen foul here so many times, and when he did complete here, he had to work extremely hard for the narrowest of successes behind a horse you would hope to beat much more comfortably. Despite not having to do too much when winning at Taunton the time before, again the race hasn't worked out, so without seeing him finish to a great degree last time (surely would have had to come off the bridle), I couldn't have him at 5/1. I always preferred the Montbazon/Vulcanite/Mono Man (not entered) formline to the Steps To Freedom/Prospect Wells one, so I'm happy to sidestep Jessie Harrington's charge, and I find assessing Irish form difficult. The ground concerns me for Trifolium, whose sire is 8-31 on heavy (7 others placed), but has mustered up gradually worse strike rates as the ground gets better, with just one 3rd from 8 runners on good-to-firm. Tetlami appears to have the key characteristics you want to look for in the Supreme Novice. He's got speed, he jumps slickly, and sees his races out strongly. He won a listed bumper race here in January 2010, before presumably something was amiss at Aintree in April that year, causing him to miss around 18 months. He travelled well in a decent-looking hurdle race on his first run after this absence, and on his first start over hurdles, at Sandown, and stayed on powerfully to score by 5l. He was not stopping at the finish and it was a top effort with fitness and inexperience against him. The form worked out, too, which is a bonus, as the runner-up won next time out, as did the 3rd, and the 4th lost narrowly before making no mistake last time out. The form I'm really interested in is his effort at Kempton next time. This is where his form ties in with other hopefuls, as he gave 5lbs to Vulcanite. He didn't put the race to bed until between the last two flights in reality, but again he galloped on readily late on to forge 3 1/2l clear. It is difficult to assess my selection against Montbazon here, with the latter winning by 7l (level weights) from Charlie Longsdon's horse last time. Vulcanite was having his first run over hurdles at Kempton, but was getting weight, and connections claim he was ridden too prominently when finishing 2nd last time. On balance, the track perhaps suited Vulcanite better at Kempton too - so on the whole I think I prefer the effort of Henderson's. Since then, Tetlami warmed up for this with a pretty facile win in a jumper's "bumper" at Kempton on the all-weather. He showed his qualities again - travelling strongly before quickening and staying on well to win nicely from a 130-rated rival in 2nd. He's clearly in good order, and the ingredients add up to a big run. Much like last year, however, there are many of these who can come and surprise up the hill, so nothing too radical, but I am fairly keen on this one's chances. 2.40 Cheltenham - 3pts win Our Mick @ 10/1 (Hills) I do like Quantitiveeasing as a horse, and this trip should be perfect for him, but he has to shoulder a lot of weight, and the winner of this race hasn't won off a mark of 150+ for 29 years, so I will sidestep him here and praise his effort should he manage to carry his burden weight to victory. On the contrary, no winners in the last 12 years have won off a mark higher than 143 (the last four winners rated 142 or 143). This doesn't quite bring Our Mick into play, but I won't avoid him for the fact he runs off 144, as he's definitely carrying around the right weight you typically want in this contest. He's still inexperienced at the age of 6, and in his first season chasing, but he's really impressed with his progressive nature over these larger obstacles, and based on his effort last time, his winning may not be done with just yet. Despite this being a competitive handicap chase over 3 miles, novices have won three of the last eight renewals of the race, and this one has had 6 runs over fences so far, and touch wood his jumping can be sound enough here. He's not faultless in that department, but it hasn't held him back, so I just hope he doesn't put in one error too many. He has been really progressive since switching to chasing, and he ran up to his new mark of 142 at Newbury last time over 2m4f. It was the Grade 1 Scilly Isle's chase so he ran off level weights behind a couple of horses higher-rated than him. He kept on doggedly up the straight, rallying to finish just 3l behind the winner, For Non Stop (rated 151), and 1l behind the runner-up Michael Flips (145). Based on this, returning to handicaps, his mark of 144 doesn't necessarily look beyond him. He looks like he may well improve for the extra half-mile here, but he will have to jump well over this longer trip. He's a half-brother to two chasing types - Our Jasper, rated 125 at best, who perhaps didn't quite get home over 3 miles, and Our Jim, rated 116 at best, but won over 3m2f, and my selection here has a more similar pedigree to the latter, as the former was by a sprinter, and therefore I feel the extra trip won't be a problem for McCain's runner here. He looks to have a very solid chance, fitting the trends, and doesn't look impossibly handicapped. He can resume his winning trend here, and therefore gets a fairly chunky win bet on his back. 4.00 Cheltenham - 2pts win Balthazar King @ 12/1 (Bet365) I've read a few bits and bobs which suggest the Hobbs yard are reasonably confident that this horse is going to run well, and is one of their better chances of the week, and therefore looks worth a nibble at a double-figure price. This isn't a race I tend to get too involved in, but with the dominance of Garde Champetre coming to an end it seems, it gives opportunity for some others to come to the fore, and I'll look to a bit of value, despite conceding that those at the head of the market are likely to be bang there. It's possible that Balthazar's King would have been swamped late on anyway when the runners took the wrong course here in December, but he was keeping on in 2nd, and that race came just a fortnight after the Hennessy at Newbury, and he certainly was running well enough to be of interest the next time he faced the unique challenge. He's clearly been prepared for this race, having not been seen since, and his record fresh is also very good. 12111 is his record after a decent absence from the track, and he's also a horse who needs quick ground - as seen when galloping on relentlessly here off 3lbs lower after a break last October, on the conventional course. He stays well, which is obviously a positive in this race, and I really think he has a big chance if the Hobbs yard aren't still in the doldrums. Everything is in his favour with regards to freshness and ground, so I will take a chance at a nice price that he can mix things up and get involved. 4.40 Cheltenham - 0.5pts e/w Kells Belle @ 33/1 (SJ) The only way to play this one is find an each-way bet it seems, and I'll side with Nicky Henderson's mare. Obviously she has plenty to find, but she's a big price, and I think conditions will suit. She stays this trip well, and Cheltenham will play to her strengths I feel, having been outpaced at Kempton two starts back. She's a galloper rather than a glamour horse, which should bode well here. She showed plenty of promise last season before running very well on her return from the summer off when 3rd here in a competitive handicap - staying on well. She was outgunned by a 125-rated animal who used all of its pace to never see another rival, and that sort of race doesn't suit this mare. She wants a good pace at a testing track, and she's got a much better chance of getting that here, and she should be staying on up the hill, but her position at the time is the potential question mark! However, having been outpaced, yet still a decent 4th of 17 at Kempton, she stayed on dourly to beat a nice type of Kim Bailey's at Sandown last time. She had 7lbs to find on that rival, but still won by nearly 2 lengths, and it was an encouraging warm-up for tomorrow's stiff exercise. The runner-up had readily won her previous two races, and the pair were well clear of the rest of the field. She looks the best each-way mare for me at the prices, though nothing silly, obviously. I fancy her to run well, and I hope she sneaks into the frame at a decent price. 5.15 Cheltenham - 2pts win Going Wrong @ 11/1 (Hills) This, quite simply, must be the hardest race of the Festival, in my eyes. I could still be sat here at 5.15 tomorrow and still not have a stronger opinion on it, I reckon. However, I do quite like the profile of Ferdy Murphy's horse here, for the stable who won the race 12 months ago. The fact this one is towards the head of the weights, it doesn't look as concerning as normal, with the field very tightly packed in the handicap (12-0 to 11-4 covers all the runners). You can give sound chances to many of these, but Going Wrong doesn't look impossibly treated on his novice hurdling form from 2009, and has shaped as if he's not lost too much of his ability since returning to the track. He beat Wymott in one of those novice races, a horse now rated 148 over hurdles and 139 over fences, with the pair clear, before going down narrowly to the recently ill-fated 146-rated Bygones Of Brid. On this, a mark of 139 isn't too bad, and he's shown a fondness for chasing this year. He's a typically sound jumper, which always is a big benefit around here, and appears to stay well. The testing nature of Cheltenham should bring out the best in him, and he should be staying on well at the death. His form this year may not be as flashy as some, but after a promising chase debut after 2 years off the track, he scored by 5l at Sedgefield over this trip. Arguably he was held by the leader when that one came to grief at 2 out, but the way my selection finishes his races suggests to me that there was still a fair chance he would have got back up. He wasn't given a hard time between the final two flights, quite readily keeping those behind at bay, and when asked after the last, he kept on strongly. He looked held by a horse who would have won all 4 starts in his career had he stayed on his feet, next time, but stayed on dourly under pressure over the insufficient 2 mile trip to get up close home. He gave Nicky Richard's nice type 7lbs also on that occasion, with the pair clear. Going Wrong looks to be going the right way, and should be fully fit for this, for a yard who thrive in these sort of handicap chases at Cheltenham. He's had a couple of months off, but it does not concern me, and things should really play to his strengths here. The fact he beat a nice type last time, giving weight away, with conditions against him pleases me, and a good pace around here should see him staying on doggedly up the hill, hopefully in first place!

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham There's a fantastic trend for Going Wrong, can't recall exact details but inclined to say the trainer has a 40% strike rate in this, despite it being so competitive. Classic bit of skim reading costing me dear when I need to actually remember it. Would expect it to go off at single figures anyway.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham +19pts with two horses to run today. Always important to get an early winner on the board. Tetlami was 9th I think. Just not good enough. Our Mick ran a cracker to be 3rd and I thought he was going to win when he came back close up turning in. Balthazar King thoroughly deserved his success. Jumped beautifully and was gutsy at the end. Worst case scenario is +16pts for the opening day. Would have taken that this morning, but here's hoping for a bit better.

[bowles10]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham nice price on BK rupert well done

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham Kells Belle run out of the places late on. Shame. Now come on Going Wrong!

[vinnyno10]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham Trying to get involved, though I know very little about horse racing.. I backed Going Wrong just to try my luck :D

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham Ran no sort of race. Oh well, BK made it a solid opening day.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 1.30 Cheltenham - 1pt win Ben's Folly @ 40/1 (VC) This horse is probably the last horse I should be backing in theory for this 4 mile amateur riders' race, but I think he'll run his race. He has little experience over fences - running just once over the larger obstacles, and has plenty to find on the figures, but many of these will fail to run to their marks over this new trip, whilst I think Tim Vaughan's charge is a bit better than a 127-rated animal. He racked up a hat-trick over hurdles in the summer of 2010 before being off the track for just over a year. Naturally his comeback run was simply getting him back in the action, and would come on plenty for it. He did indeed, as he bounced back from that moderate display to win off a mark of 120 in the mud at Ffos Las - showing off his stamina. He ran a cracker on his chase debut next time at Newbury in a decent race. He was put straight into handicap company and jumped well on his first try over fences. This bodes well here, and he stayed on dourly in 2nd. The front two were well clear and he was shortened up late on in the race which cost him a little bit of ground. He gave 10lbs to the winner, who scooted up next time, so the mark of my selection probably is worthy of a few lbs more. There was 19l back to anything else at Newbury. Instead of building on this, Vaughan sent him back over hurdles in February for a Pertemps Handicap Hurdle at Haydock. It was a competitive heat, and Ben's Folly was pulled-up. This run came at a time when the yard were struggling badly (1-75 in January/February). I will forgive him this run, and returning back to a staying chase will suit him. The better ground looks likely to help as well. He stays strongly and jumps pretty soundly based on his Newbury effort, and the yard are in better form now. They've had a couple of winners in March, and quite a few home in 2nd, so I'd expect a better showing from his horses now. Our Island is also in the race, but has a more inexperienced rider, so perhaps they expect my selection to do the best of their two runners. It's obviously a big punt, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him go well at a price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 2.05 Cheltenham - 3pts win Monksland @ 11/2 (Bet365) The word from many quarters has been that Boston Bob would win whichever race he ran in at the Festival, and with that one heading to the Albert Bartlett, it leaves Noel Meade's runner in with a serious chance here - having form tied in with that one. Simonsig is a well-fancied favourite, still, however, and I can see why. However, a horse who supposedly has so much speed according to connections, is opposable here for me over the 2m5f trip at Cheltenham. He has been impressive to date, but his effort upped to 2m4f a couple of starts back would concern me slightly. Obviously he met a very smart type in Fingal Bay, but he didn't find that much off the bridle, and I wouldn't be piling into him at 5/2 here with those slight stamina doubts in mind. Monksland has impressed me with the manner of his wins under rules so far, and his form has worked out nicely. He's one of the top-rated horses in the field, and there are no question marks over this one's stamina. You wouldn't necessarily have had him down as a Festival winner on his hurdling debut success, when getting up late under pressure from two horses who haven't really franked the form, but this bumper winner likely needed the experience over jumps, and certainly would improve for a greater test of stamina. He built on it, as expected, when running out a smooth winner at Naas over 2m4f last time out. He travelled comfortably and picked up well after the last, once regathering his stride after a flat-footed landing. He swishes his tail a bit, but it hasn't stopped him from finding plenty for pressure, and he won readily by 4 1/2l. On this occasion, he could have won by further, but the runner-up has really franked the form since. He chased home Boston Bob next time out - going down by 2l less than behind my selection. He was in receipt of 10lbs on that occasion, so it's no real surprise, but the winner had to really dig in to get there, whereas Monksland wasn't given too much of a hard time. You may well say that if Boston Bob ran here, he would have the measure of my hope, but without him, I'm quite keen, as the yardstick won a Grade 2 last time out in good style. He does have to face better ground here today, but I hope it won't be too much of a concern. His dam enjoyed a sound surface, so I would hope he may even improve for it. The testing track shouldn't be an issue either, and I expect Carberry to be delivering a late challenge here, and has every chance of getting up.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 2.40 Cheltenham - 4pts win Bobs Worth @ 4/1 (BlueSQ) I'm keeping the faith with this horse here, as conditions will be right up his street today. He has to try and reverse form with the hot favourite Grands Crus, but should get closer here, with greater emphasis on stamina. Bobs Worth was a serious staying novice hurdler last season, who won the Albert Bartlett in decent style. He faced stiff opposition at Newbury on his chase debut, in the shape of Cue Card (ran a good 2nd in yesterday's Arkle). My selection wasn't as good as his rival at most of his fences, but his stamina really kicked in after the last, and he got up in the shadows of the post under a power-packed Barry Geraghty ride. He's not quite been at home in two starts since - at Kempton and Ascot. Both flatter tracks which tend to be a bit more about speed than stamina, something which isn't Henderson's runner's forte. His jumping has remained pretty hesitant, and he has kept on fairly well in both contests without really threatening. Mistakes late on cost him at Ascot from getting close to the winner, and his jumping naturally remains a concern here. However, he returns to Cheltenham for the first time since last year's festival - and he has a flawless 100% record at the track (3-3). The nature of Cheltenham suits the horse down to the ground, and I'm sure he's going to put in his best performance of the season today. There looks to be plenty of deadwood in the race. The market believes this is a four-horse race, but I think you can narrow that down to 2. First Lieutenant hasn't impressed me hugely over fences, and has an absence to overcome. He does go well fresh, but the stats are against horses without a recent run in this race, and the yard aren't exactly flying. Join Together is another to fall foul of the recent-run stat, and looks to want an even stiffer test. Grands Crus hasn't run in the calendar year, either, so Bobs Worth must have an excellent chance considering the last 48 winners have run in the same year as the RSA Chase. I really think this is his chance, and it can all come together for him this year, back at Cheltenham, and back at the festival.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 4.00 Cheltenham - 2pts win Dare Me @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) I wanted this horse to go to the County (presuming he'd get in), but here we are. Posted this last time:

3.40 Taunton - 4pts win Dare Me @ 3/1 (Hills) The fact this horse has been backed gives me hope that he'll be going for the win today, as it's always tricky judging high-class handicappers just weeks before Cheltenham. I think he's well-treated and will be a big threat in the County Hurdle if he runs, even off a higher mark than today. Was high class in bumpers, but improved again over hurdles in late 2010, with two very easy victories. He first off beat a current 123-rated horse by 12l and then won unextended by over 4l to a horse now rated 130. Looking at this literally, Dare Me goes to war off a mark of 135, and should be well capable of exploiting this. Returned after a long break at Cheltenham recently and was one of the biggest eyecatchers of the season for me. Didn't jump all that great in rear, but kept making ground after his flights, and looked a threat up the straight in a competitive affair. A final error at the last cost him any chance he had, and he faded up the hill. It was hugely promising, and with that run under his belt, should go extremely well here if not 'bouncing'.

He ran fairly well at a time when the yard weren't going great, and the two horses in front of him ran well in the Imperial Cup last weekend, offering further hope. I'd really fancy this horse over 2 miles, but this is 2m5f, and even though he has a decent chance of staying the trip, it's an unnecessary question mark as far as I'm concerned. The Hobbs' yard are going a bit better now, so I'd have hope now this horse is going to be spot on. I remain that he's still off a fair mark, and his run two-starts back was massively eye-catching for me. If he gets home, he has a big chance in my book, and I sincerely hope he jumps better than two runs ago, and does indeed get up the hill. One of the interesting ones in the field.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 4.40 Cheltenham - 2pts win Argocat @ 20/1 (Bet365) It's perhaps a foolish move to sidestep the hype regarding Alan King's Vendor - who is supposedly very well treated in this race, but I think Tom Taaffe's runner is overpriced, and therefore gets the vote for me. All seven winners of this race failed to win in their first two runs over hurdles, with 5 out of 7 winners scoring on their third start over the obstacles, before moving on to Cheltenham. My selection meets this statistic, and is very interesting for me in this race. He wasn't anything particularly special on the flat - with a rating of 75 - but was an expensive purchase and has a middle-distance pedigree. He didn't achieve much on his hurdling debut, when sent off at 25/1, but made a much greater impression when 3rd next time out, behind two horses who have thoroughly franked the form since. He went down 6 1/2l on heavy ground at Punchestown - behind a 142-rated horse who ran 2nd in a Grade 1 next time (behind a 16/1 shot for the Triumph), and a 141-rated horse who beat that Triumph hopeful before the running of that Grade 1 juvenile race. Argocat goes to war off a mark of 136 having won by 4 1/2l last time, again on testing ground, from a subsequent winner, with the pair well clear. His mark looks fair on these two recent runs, and he gets 7lbs taken off by an able claimer (1-2 for the yard) for the stable who have had 1 winner from 3 runs with hurdlers at Cheltenham. The better ground should also suit this horse, so I really believe he's potentially well-in and overpriced.

[simon1688]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham Rupert whats your pick for the 3:20 ?

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham No bet for me. Sizing Europe should be tough to beat. A bit gutted Ben's Folly is out of the first. Was looking forward to seeing him go at a price. Will take another look at that one now.

[mowgli77]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham Good luck today and well done for yesterday. :ok:ok:ok

[simon1688]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham

No bet for me. Sizing Europe should be tough to beat. A bit gutted Ben's Folly is out of the first. Was looking forward to seeing him go at a price. Will take another look at that one now.

I'm going with Big Zeb it's been 3-3 so far with Sizing Europe and Sizing Europe is too short to back so I will take the 5/1 eachway.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 1.30 Cheltenham - 3pts win Soll @ 15/2 (BlueSQ) This horse doesn't really have the profile that you might like in this race, as he remains inexperienced, but he has looked a natural chaser in two starts to date, and a stamina test will suit him down to the ground you feel. A point winner, this horse stayed on dourly to extend to a 10l success over the gruelling 3 mile trip at Newcastle on bottomless ground, and was only going further clear at the finish. That was after a break as well, so he seems to have plenty of stamina in the locker, and he's shown that as well since trying fences. Was off the track for a while, again, prior to his chasing debut, and he was nailed close home by a 135-rated animal who probably just had a little bit too much speed for him. Soll is an out-and-out galloper and that's why I think today is made for him. He's a big horse, who jumps well, and keeps on going for pressure. This was seen last time out over 2m4f at Dromore. He jumped well in front, but there were a couple of rivals in behind him who looked to be dangerous for a time, but he kept on rolling under pressure, to score in the end by 4 1/2l. The trip was insufficient, even on heavy ground, and the runner-up wasn't disgraced in 9th of 20 yesterday in the novice handicap chase here. He does have to prove himself on better ground today, but it should just about guarantee his stamina will last home. I don't think there's much between the two Willie Mullins-trained horses in this race, and I prefer this one even if Allee Garde may be a slight favourite out of the two. There's only 3lbs between them on ratings, and Katy Walsh is by no means a bad rider in the context of this race. She is 3-12 at Cheltenham and should get a lovely spin round on this animal, who I think can bowl along and fend off his rivals. There looks to be pace in the race, so it may pay not to get too involved, so a sit just off the leaders may be ideal here. He has a habit of doing this - despite taking over the running early on last time - and he has a massive race in him if Walsh gets it right.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham Well that proved a tricky day. On the face of it, I'll take the 6pt profit thanks to Bobs Worth. Soll was brought down by his stablemate! Monksland was 3rd. Would have been closer but for being hampered by Cotton Mill but couldn't get near the winner. I had my suspicions that Dare Me should have been kept to 2 miles. Jumped better but didn't get home. Still one to keep on side of. Argocat just lacked the tactical speed through the race but plugged on well for 8th in a competitive field for the Fred Winter. +22pts for the Festival so far.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham Scrap it, I'll have a tentative go in the bumper: 5.15 Cheltenham - 1pt win Ifandbutwhynot @ 40/1 (Ladbrokes) Terrifically difficult heats to examine, these bumpers, but this one has form in the book, and conditions should suit better today. He's a tad overpriced, and has a good chance of trading lower in the run. This horse joined David O'Meara last October, and wasn't expected to do much in his debut in this country at Uttoxeter, but ran a very creditable 3rd after a break, keeping on having been hampered in the run. The winner is a smart 135-rated novice over hurdles and the runner-up was a decent bumper horse himself, so it was a good effort. He improved again to impressively land a Newcastle bumper on good ground by 9l - beating a subsequent novice hurdle winner on that one's next start. He travelled superbly again at Ascot last time on softer ground, but raced quite keenly, and he started to feel the pinch late on. He looked like the winner turning in, but faded to be 4th late on. However, he wasn't beaten far, and the winner won another listed event next time out, with the 2nd cruising to success on his hurdling debut. The form looks strong, and the quicker pace here and better ground looks sure to suit. He travels like a good horse, and it wouldn't surprise me if he outran his price here today. Worth a small punt, anyway.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 1.30 Cheltenham - 4pts win Peddlers Cross @ 7/2 (Hills) This is a big price for a horse who has top notch form if you ignore his defeat to Sprinter Sacre at Kempton this season. Donald McCain has said that he wasn't himself on that occasion, and he has a huge chance here if that was the case, and he's better now, as we're led to believe. He could never do much but live in the Arkle winner's shadow on that occasion after a mistake at the first, but this will suit much better. He returns to a left-handed track, and a track that he loves here at Cheltenham. The winner of a Neptune Investment Hurdle, and an excellent runner-up to Hurricane Fly in last year's champion hurdle, he has course form as good as most. He's got plenty of guts, and looked on course to be just as good over fences when running out a smooth winner on his first two starts over fences. He jumped great both times around Bangor, despite not beating a huge amount. Having said that, he gave 10lbs to a 148-rated hurdler when winning the latter in comprehensive style. He's not necessarily as flashy as some, but did the job with plenty in hand, before his bubble was burst somewhat at Kempton. However, the in-form McCain has said he's back to his old self now, and returns to Cheltenham on the back of a bit of a break. He goes well fresh so that doesn't concern me, and the step up in trip will suit. He saw this distance out strongly over hurdles, so will relish this greatest test he's faced yet over fences, and is the class act in the field. He has 8lbs in hand on official ratings, and whilst there are some good horses in this race, I think Peddlers Cross is very top-class, and will be tough to beat with conditions in his favour.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 2.05 Cheltenham - 3pts win Sonofvic @ 11/1 (Bet365) Our Father will have plenty of supporters in this race, but I think Paul Nicholls' charge is extremely interesting as well, as he returns to hurdles after a mixed couple of runs over fences. This horse has plenty of stamina in his pedigree and proved he had the class to match when running out a ready 5l victor on his debut at Chepstow over 2m4f. He saw off a couple of nice types on that occasion, including yesterday's 4m winner Teaforthree (rated 138 at the end of his novice hurdling days), and Ohio Gold (134 rated handicapper). Straight away on this, a mark of 141 doesn't look restrictive, and he's done nothing since to suggest he isn't worthy of at least that mark. He returned from four months off with a dogged display in the mud at Ascot - again over 2m4f. He really shaped like a stayer as he ran on dourly to get the better of (at the time) a promising novice in the shape of Tornado Bob. Whilst that horse has failed to deliver somewhat since, he was an impressive winner of two previous races, to merit a rating of 143. Sonofvic always looked like he'd be better over 3 miles, and tomorrow is his first chance to test that out over the smaller obstacles. He ran a cracker on his chasing debut over 3 miles after a break - making Grands Crus work all the way to the line for a 2l success. My selection was receiving 7lbs that day, but take nothing away, that was a top effort against a very high-class animal. Things didn't go to plan here last time out, however. He was stepped back to 2m5f, but his jumping wasn't as good as it had been previously. He was consistently losing ground at his fences, but showed he had an engine by getting back onto the coattails of the leaders every time. He was still in contention - quite remarkably - when slipping having been hampered after 4 out - and was soon eased right down. He may well have plugged on and got involved in that good race, despite his errors, which would have been an incredible effort really. It was a good race so the fact that his mistakes didn't see him tailed off was quite impressive in my eyes. He's had a couple of months off to recover, and given his record fresh, that looks no bad thing. Coming back to hurdles certainly isn't either, and I foresee a huge run here with conditions ideal. A good pace over 3 miles around here will bring his stamina into play, and he's still off a decent mark in my eyes. He has a big engine, and so long as he jumps okay back over hurdles, should go very well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 2.40 Cheltenham - 2pts win Captain Chris @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) I have an ante-post bet on this horse at the same odds, but will top up with a small bet here now he's certain to run. I always thought this was the best race for the Hobbs yard to opt for, and think he has a better chance here. He still has plenty of questions to answer, but he also has plenty going for him here, and if bouncing back, has a big shout. He hasn't got much to find on the figures, being 4lbs inferior to those at the top of the ratings, but the highest rated runners in this race don't have as good a record as you might think. This horse won the Arkle here last year, from this season's Champion chaser, so he certainly has plenty of ability. He followed it up at Punchestown, something that horses often fail to do, before being an unfortunate casualty late on at Exeter after a break, when unshipping Richard Johnson at the last. He looked like he'd probably win that race from Medermit (15/2 shot here). He didn't jump great on that occasion, either, so it was a promising seasonal reappearance. I also think his run in the King George was pretty sound. He had Somersby (6/1 here) in behind, when 3rd to Kauto Star and Long Run, and shaped as if not quite getting home. He rallied to be right up behind the leaders at 4 out before fading, and the return to 2m5f here will really suit I feel. Obviously things didn't go to plan here last time, when his jumping become erratic, as he leapt out to his right violently throughout the early stages of the Argento, but hopefully he won't do that again. Connections say he always jumps right-handed, but he hasn't been that bad before, so I hope the problem won't materialise again here. He relishes good ground and his form here prior to last time reads 121. All of his wins have come between February and May, so this is his time of year, and he must have a good chance here, if not suffering from the same fate as last time. I'll keep the faith.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 4.00 Cheltenham - 2pts win The Cockney Mackem @ 22/1 (VC) These races tend to be a nightmare for punters, but I hope I can get a big priced fancy home in Nigel Twiston-Davies' The Cockney Mackem here. This horse has proven a bit frustrating having won just once from 11 starts, yet has been in the first 3 on 9 occasions - with the other two being in races he has fallen or unseated rider in. In some ways, it's good to have a consistent animal to be on the side of, but he'll have to find an extra gear to get his head in front you feel. However, this one has attracted some early support in the market, and he's off a low weight here, something which hasn't been a detriment to horses in the race in previous years. Plenty of his form is pretty solid, and I get the feeling that a festival field will bring the best out in him, so long as he jumps okay. He doesn't have a serious turn of foot, so coming off a good gallop in a big field should suit him here. I don't think he's had the races run to suit him in his chasing career to date, but his latest two efforts have been encouraging when sent up in trip. Two starts ago, he finished well over 2m3f at Taunton to get within 3/4l of Micheal Flips. The front two were 12 lengths clear of the rest, and Andrew Turnell's high-class runner franked the form with a good effort in the Scilly Isles chase at Newbury next time out. That race has seen Our Mick come out and frank the form this week already, so the Taunton run appears a solid effort from my selection. Last time out The Cockney Mackem was tried over 3 miles at Doncaster. Again he finished in 2nd behind a nice type, and closed to within a length at 4 out before edging further and further away over the final three flights to go down by 5 lengths. He shaped that a trip inbetween Taunton and Doncaster would suit, and he gets just that here over 2m5f. I think that will suit him perfectly, and a big run looks in store. He had a tough task to win that day at the weights, so probably ran near enough as well as could be expected. That run also came in February, when the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard were out of form on the whole, registering 3-50. His horses are running better now and I think another sound run looks on the cards so long as this horse's jumping holds up. The conditions look certain to suit, and I'm hopeful he'll go well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 4.40 Cheltenham - 2pts win Summery Justice @ 20/1 (Hills) Another extremely tricky race to work out, but Venetia Williams' 8yo looks a really interesting runner to me in this event for amateur riders. Starting off on that point, the winner of this race is typically ridden by a relatively experienced pilot, who doesn't claim any weight. My selection ticks that box here with Will Biddick taking the ride - a jockey who has ridden around here 20 times in the past. This horse is really lightly-raced, having run just eight times in over three years, but has shown plenty of ability when he has stepped foot on the racecourse. He won his third start over hurdles at Taunton, before finishing midfield in a Grade 3 handicap hurdle race at Sandown worth £39k. He was off the track for a while after this effort, but it didn't stop him winning on his chasing debut when he returned. He got up late to win by a neck from a now 139-rated rival, with the pair clear. For whatever reason, he was pulled up next time, but again showed a liking for running fresh when stamping his authority over a pretty competitive handicap field over 3 miles at Bangor on testing ground. He showed how well he stays on this occasion, running out an 8-length victor off a mark of 126. The 2nd and 3rd franked the form with wins next time out, so a mark of 134 tomorrow looks pretty fair on what Summery Justice has achieved on the track so far - especially as there could still be more to come. He couldn't quite repeat the same feat after a whole calendar year off the racecourse at Haydock in November, but still ran with plenty of credit in the mud over three miles in a good contest. The first three home were rated in the early 140s, with Cappa Bleu coming out on top. Both that horse and the runner-up franked the form since, as has the horse who finished 6l behind my selection - winning a good handicap recently. Summery Justice perhaps just didn't have the legs to last home on the heavy ground after so long off the track, especially in a hot race. He may still be best seen fresh, though, and the four-month absence looks capable of suiting him ahead of this challenge. He should be fresh, but not desperately in need of the run, and both the stamina test and his mark look in his favour. The Venetia Williams' yard are also in better form than they were when this one ran at Haydock (6-61 in November, 8-41 in March so far), so that is another possible reason for the flatter effort. This is another horse with plenty going for him I think, but yet again, this is a thoroughly competitive race. His weight looks fair, conditions should suit, and his jockey is one of the better riders in the race, however, so a big run looks highly possible.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham The Cockney Mackem beats all but one. Gutted. Summery Justice well backed and never went a yard. Didn't travel at any point of the contest. Woefully disappointing.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham +8pts for the Festival now. My selections aren't typically running badly, but it's so hard to nail the winners this week. Peddlers Cross and Summery Justice were both really poor, but Sonofvic looked a threat turning in today despite drifting, and might have nicked a place had he not fallen at the last. Captain Chris put in a good effort but should probably stick to right-handed tracks. I think the test here suits him but his jumping doesn't help. The Cockney Mackem was well supported into 10/1 from 22/1 and put in another tremendous effort, despite being 2nd yet again. Gutted he couldn't win, but the winner was too good for them all, and he still ran with plenty of credit. Bad day. At least the Festival can't be too big a disaster with a profit going into the final day.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 1.30 Cheltenham - 3pts win Sadler's Risk @ 7/1 (Bet365) I'm jumping ship somewhat here. I always thought I'd be siding with Grumeti in this race, and I liked the way Hisabaat won for me last time, so I'll be gutted if either of those two win. The latter should be happy on the ground. However, neither horse ran over 1m4f on the flat - a pre-requisite for this race typically, with the last 14 winners having done so. Sadler's Risk was held by Baby Mix last time at Kempton, despite receiving 3lbs, but I think he has every chance of reversing that form around here. He's a decent horse on the flat - rated 95 - which is another plus point on the trends, and will get home here. It's a stiff stamina test and I think that will bring out more in this horse, who has run both of his hurdles races at the sharper Kempton. The way he shaped last time was encouraging and it looked to me that he would be ideal for this race. He kept on without reaching the possibly classier and speedier Baby Mix - but when it comes to bombing up the hill at the end of a race run at a likely decent pace, I think I'd rather be with Philip Hobbs' animal. Obviously there are plenty of threats, but I'm going with the 'horses for courses' approach here I think, but it should be a great finish.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 2.05 Cheltenham - 2pts win Ifyouletmefinish @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) Strictly speaking, those rated between 128-135 tend to do well in this race, and that rules out plenty of these runners. I'm not going to be so vicious in my selection process, but the horse I like does actually fit with this trend, which only makes me more confident. Jeremy Scott's horses are in good form at the moment with three winners in the last fortnight, and I really like his runner in this race. I think he's made for it, in fact, and a good run surely looks on the cards. We will get some indication in the Triumph Hurdle, as his last two starts have been closely matched with Pearl Swan and Urbain De Sivola - giving weight to both. He gave Pearl Swan 11lbs when going down by 4l, and then dead-heated with the latter off 2lbs higher than his rival. All of his hurdles runs have come at Taunton, a sharp right-handed track which is very different to here. However, he's shaped like a stiffer track would suit him, and I think he's going to relish coming off a hot pace around here. His form looks strong and he stays on/battles in his races which will give him every chance here up the hill. 5 year olds also have a terrific record in the race, another trend that this one fits, and he's unexposed. A big run is on the cards I feel.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 2.40 Cheltenham - 2pts win Brindisi Breeze @ 10/1 (Hills) The winners of this race tend to have run at Cheltenham before, and have already run over 3 miles in their hurdling career. Lucinda Russell's animal hasn't done the former, but has proved his stamina in no uncertain terms. His victories have led to people query whether he needs deep ground, but I'll take a chance that he doesn't, as he's been very impressive when wiping the floor with some smart animals. The favourite of this does have a nice profile, but he's yet to race this far - despite shaping like a stayer. I think Brindisi Breeze will be hard to peg back, even if he's unlikely to get a soft lead, as he's a strong stayer with plenty of class. His last run at Haydock was very good. He won by an eased-down 12l from some very good novices. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th were all previously unbeaten over obstacles, and the 5th franked the form in no uncertain terms next time. I think he's a bit overpriced purely for the stable he represents, because you can't fault what he's done so far over hurdles. He will get home okay as long as he doesn't go crazy, and looks sure to run pretty well. He may prefer softer conditions, but I can't see it being the be all and end all.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham 3.20 Cheltenham - 2pts win Burton Port @ 7/1 (Bet365) I already have an e/w bet on this horse at 33s, as posted before his comeback run, but will add a little bit on the day from a win perspective. Obviously many are billing this a two-horse race, and it may well be, but I love this horse and couldn't not be impressed with his effort on his return from a very long absence. Naturally there are concerns with regards to the 'bounce' factor, but if he's fit and well - and ready to go 100% - he looks destined for a big run. Nicky Henderson has been very complimentary to this horse since he recovered from an injury sustained in the 2010 Hennessy at Newbury - claiming he's working better than ever, and has even said he's a stone better than when last seen. Now a horse who is a stone better than an RSA/Hennessy runner-up - with his jumping costing him in both races - isn't far off a Gold Cup horse in my eyes. He showed all heart on both of those runs (winning at Aintree when not fully tuned-up inbetween). He made errors - more consistently at Cheltenham, and one bad error at the cross-fence at Newbury cost him that race without a doubt for me. But he stayed strongly on both occasions and he's got such an engine and guts. It is a concern that his jumping will be put under serious scrutiny here, as a slower tempo gives him more time at his fences, and he's not the biggest horse in the world. He jumped better last time, though, and also travelled with more purpose. I know he was getting 10lbs from Long Run there, but he was entitled to come on plenty for it, and probably should have won that day. Geraghty only gave him a couple of smacks up the run-in - having jumped slowly/right at the final flight, but only went down by 1/2l. Although the test will suit his stablemate today, the stiffer stamina questions will also play right into the hands of my selection. Geraghty won't be giving him a soft time today, and this horse finds plenty for pressure. I think he's the 3rd best horse in the race at the very least and can shake things up so long as he jumps okay. Good race, this shapes to be, though.